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DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational diagnostics for flame acceleration and transition to detonation in a hydrogen/air mixture

A new computational diagnostic method for pressure-induced compressibility is proposed by projecting its local contribution to the chemical explosive mode (CEM) in the chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) framework. The new method is validated for the study of detonation development during the deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) process. The flame characteristics are identified through the quantification of individual CEM contributions of chemical reaction, diffusion, and pressure-induced compressibility. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the DDT processes in a stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture. A Godunov algorithm, fifth-order in space, and third-order in time are used to solve the fully compressible Navier-Stokes equations on a dynamically adapting mesh. A single-step, calibrated chemical diffusive model (CDM) described by Arrhenius kinetics is used for energy release and conservation between the fuel and the product. The new diagnostic method is first applied to onedimensional (1D) canonical flame configurations followed by two-dimensional (2D) simulations of DDT in an obstructed channel where different detonation initiation scenarios are examined using the new CEMA projection formulation. Detailed examinations of the idealized configuration of detonation initiation through shock focusing mechanism at a flame front are also studied using the new formulation. A comparison of the currently proposed CEMA projection and the original formulation by the authors suggests that including the pressure-induced compressibility is essential for the use of CEMA in DDT process. The results also show that the new formulation of CEMA projection can successively capture the detonation initiation through either a gradient mechanism or a direct initiation mechanism, and therefore can be used as an effective local analytical tool for the computational diagnostics of detonation initiation in a DDT process. It was found that detonation development is characterized by a strong contribution of chemistry role to the CEM which is pivotal to the initiation of detonation. The role of compressibility is found enhanced at the edge of the detonation front where diffusion was found to have minimal effects on detonation development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Holistic Algorithmic Approach to Improving Accuracy, Robustness, and Computational Efficiency for Atmospheric Dynamics

Atmospheric weather and climate models must perform simulations very quickly to be useful. Therefore, modelers have traditionally focused on reducing computations as much as possible. However, in our new era of increasingly compute-capable hardware, data movement is now the prohibiting expense. This study examines the computational benefits of a new algorithmic approach to modeling atmospheric dynamics on scales relevant to weather and climate simulation. Rather than minimizing computations, this new approach considers the larger problem more holistically, including spatial accuracy, temporal accuracy, robustness (i.e., oscillations), on-node efficiency, and internode data transfers together at once. Numerical experiments demonstrate how computations can be strategically increased to simultaneously address each of these constraints while reducing data movement to adapt to modern accelerated hardware. The new algorithm can achieve at times up to 80% peak floating point throughput in single precision on the Nvidia Tesla V100 GPU, where the traditional approach is shown to only achieve single-digit floating point efficiency. Further, the new algorithm is twice as fast as a standard Runge--Kutta time integrator, and high-order accuracy with Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) limiting came at less than 30% additional runtime cost on a GPU, thus increasing the accuracy per degree of freedom.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scalability of high-performance PDE solvers

Performance tests and analyses are critical to effective high-performance computing software development and are central components in the design and implementation of computational algorithms for achieving faster simulations on existing and future computing architectures for large-scale application problems. In this article, we explore performance and space-time trade-offs for important compute-intensive kernels of large-scale numerical solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs) that govern a wide range of physical applications. We consider a sequence of PDE-motivated bake-off problems designed to establish best practices for efficient high-order simulations across a variety of codes and platforms. We measure peak performance (degrees of freedom per second) on a fixed number of nodes and identify effective code optimization strategies for each architecture. In addition to peak performance, we identify the minimum time to solution at 80% parallel efficiency. The performance analysis is based on spectral and p-type finite elements but is equally applicable to a broad spectrum of numerical PDE discretizations, including finite difference, finite volume, and h-type finite elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recovering non-Maxwellian particle velocity distribution functions from collective Thomson-scattered spectra

Collective optical Thomson scattering (TS) is a diagnostic commonly used to characterize plasma parameters. These parameters are typically extracted by a fitting algorithm that minimizes the difference between a measured scattered spectrum and an analytic spectrum calculated from the velocity distribution function (VDF) of the plasma. However, most existing TS analysis algorithms assume that the VDFs are Maxwellian, and applying an algorithm that makes this assumption does not accurately extract the plasma parameters of a non-Maxwellian plasma due to the effect of non-Maxwellian deviations on the TS spectra. We present new open-source numerical tools for forward modeling analytic spectra from arbitrary VDFs and show that these tools are able to more accurately extract plasma parameters from synthetic TS spectra generated by non-Maxwellian VDFs compared to standard TS algorithms. Estimated posterior probability distributions of fits to synthetic spectra for a variety of example non-Maxwellian VDFs are used to determine uncertainties in the extracted plasma parameters and show that correlations between parameters can significantly affect the accuracy of fits in plasmas with non-Maxwellian VDFs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Approximability of Random-Hypergraph MAX-3-XORSAT Problems with Quantum Algorithms

Constraint satisfaction problems are an important area of computer science. Many of these problems are in the complexity class NP which is exponentially hard for all known methods, both for worst cases and often typical. Fundamentally, the lack of any guided local minimum escape method ensures the hardness of both exact and approximate optimization classically, but the intuitive mechanism for approximation hardness in quantum algorithms based on Hamiltonian time evolution is poorly understood. We explore this question using the prototypically hard MAX-3-XORSAT problem class. We conclude that the mechanisms for quantum exact and approximation hardness are fundamentally distinct. We qualitatively identify why traditional methods such as quantum adiabatic optimization are not good approximation algorithms. We propose a new spectral folding optimization method that does not suffer from these issues and study it analytically and numerically. We consider random rank-3 hypergraphs including extremal planted solution instances, where the ground state satisfies an anomalously high fraction of constraints compared to truly random problems. We show that, if we define the energy to be $E = N_{unsat}-N_{sat}$, then spectrally folded quantum optimization will return states with energy $E \leq A E_{GS}$ (where $E_{GS}$ is the ground state energy) in polynomial time, where conservatively, $A \simeq 0.6$. We thoroughly benchmark variations of spectrally folded quantum optimization for random classically approximation-hard (planted solution) instances in simulation, and find performance consistent with this prediction. We do not claim that this approximation guarantee holds for all possible hypergraphs, though our algorithm's mechanism can likely generalize widely. These results suggest that quantum computers are more powerful for approximate optimization than had been previously assumed.

Kapit, Eliot↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of barren plateaus on gradient-free optimization

Barren plateau landscapes correspond to gradients that vanish exponentially in the number of qubits. Such landscapes have been demonstrated for variational quantum algorithms and quantum neural networks with either deep circuits or global cost functions. For obvious reasons, it is expected that gradient-based optimizers will be significantly affected by barren plateaus. However, whether or not gradient-free optimizers are impacted is a topic of debate, with some arguing that gradient-free approaches are unaffected by barren plateaus. Here we show that, indeed, gradient-free optimizers do not solve the barren plateau problem. Our main result proves that cost function differences, which are the basis for making decisions in a gradient-free optimization, are exponentially suppressed in a barren plateau. Hence, without exponential precision, gradient-free optimizers will not make progress in the optimization. We numerically confirm this by training in a barren plateau with several gradient-free optimizers (Nelder-Mead, Powell, and COBYLA algorithms), and show that the numbers of shots required in the optimization grows exponentially with the number of qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Implicit Solvers with Dynamic Mesh Adaptation for a Relativistic Drift-Kinetic Fokker–Planck–Boltzmann Model

In this work we consider a relativistic drift-kinetic model for runaway electrons along with a Fokker–Planck operator for small-angle Coulomb collisions, a radiation damping operator, and a secondary knock-on (Boltzmann) collision source. Here, we develop a new scalable fully implicit solver utilizing finite volume and conservative finite difference schemes and dynamic mesh adaptivity. A new data management framework in the PETSc library based on the p4est library is developed to enable simulations with dynamic adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), distributed memory parallelization, and dynamic load balancing of computational work. This framework and the runaway electron solver building on the framework are able to dynamically capture both bulk Maxwellian at the low-energy region and a runaway tail at the high-energy region. To effectively capture features via the AMR algorithm, a new AMR indicator prediction strategy is proposed that is performed alongside the implicit time evolution of the solution. This strategy is complemented by the introduction of computationally cheap feature-based AMR indicators that are analyzed theoretically. Numerical results quantify the advantages of the prediction strategy in better capturing features compared with nonpredictive strategies; and we demonstrate trade-offs regarding computational costs. The robustness with respect to model parameters, algorithmic scalability, and parallel scalability are demonstrated through several benchmark problems including manufactured solutions and solutions of different physics models. We focus on demonstrating the advantages of using implicit time stepping and AMR for runaway electron simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An extended/generalized phase-field finite element method for crack growth with global-local enrichment

In this paper, an extended/generalized finite element method (XFEM/GFEM) for simulating quasistatic crack growth based on a phase-field method is presented. The method relies on approximations to solutions associated with two different scales: a global scale, that is, structural and discretized with a coarse mesh, and a local scale encapsulating the fractured region, that is, discretized with a fine mesh. A stable XFEM/GFEM is employed to embed the displacement and damage fields at the global scale. The proposed method accommodates approximation spaces that evolve between load steps, while preserving a fixed background mesh for the structural problem. In addition, a prediction-correction algorithm is employed to facilitate the dynamic evolution of the confined crack regions within a load step. Several numerical examples of benchmark problems in two- and three-dimensional quasistatic fracture are provided to demonstrate the approach.

multiscale↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust cooperative control strategy for a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles against sensor errors and control errors simultaneously in a real-world driving environment

In a real-world driving environment, a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is subject to many internal and external disturbances, resulting in uncertain vehicle dynamics. In general, the disturbances can be categorized into two types: disturbances due to vehicle sensor errors (e.g., GPS error) and disturbances due to vehicle control errors (e.g., actuator delay). In the literature, many control strategies have been proposed to improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by these disturbances. However, most of these strategies only consider one type of disturbance and cannot tackle both types of disturbances simultaneously. Furthermore, they are designed to maximize the benefits of each vehicle in the platoon independently, which can deteriorate the performance of the platoon. Here, to address these problems, this study proposes a robust cooperative control (RCC) strategy to maneuver the vehicles in the platoon cooperatively to counteract the impacts of both types of disturbances. The RCC strategy is developed based on a minimax problem, where the maximization subproblem seeks to find the worst inputs for the uncertainty terms in the vehicle dynamics equation to minimize the platoon performance, while the minimization subproblem seeks to find the optimal control decisions for all subsequent vehicles to maximize the platoon performance in the worst case. To solve the minimax problem, this study proposes a globally convergent solution algorithm. It can solve the minimax problem very efficiently to enable real time deployment of the RCC strategy. Numerical application indicates that compared to the existing methods, the RCC strategy can dramatically improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against the uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by both vehicle state detection errors and vehicle control errors. Therefore, it can maneuver the CAV platoon safely and efficiently in a real-world driving environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Peer-to-Peer Market-Based Control Strategy for a Smart Residential Community with Behind-the-Meter Distributed Energy Resources

This paper presents a distributed peer-to-peer market control strategy to manage and to enable resource sharing of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources in a residential community. In the proposed strategy, each consumer or prosumer determines the flexibility of their point of connection to the power network such that the obtained flexibility is network-feasible. Based on the feasible flexibility, the consumers and the prosumers trade power among each other at each time instance to fulfill their preferred load requirements while maximizing their payoffs and helping to regulate node voltages inside the community. Because the problem to be solved is non-convex, a distributed particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to coordinate the consumers/prosumers in a fully autonomous manner without any centralized or hierarchical coordination. Numerical simulations performed on a community of 48 homes demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

behind-the-meter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neuromorphic Computing for Scientific Applications

Neuromorphic computing technology continues to make strides in the development of new algorithms, devices, and materials. In addition, applications have begun to emerge where neuromorphic computing shows promising results. However, numerous barriers to further development and application remain. In this work, we identify several science areas where neuromorphic computing can either make an immediate impact (within 1 to 3 years) or the societal impact would be extremely high if the technological barriers can be addressed. We identify both opportunities and hurdles to the development of neuromorphic computing technology for these areas. Finally, we discuss future directions that need to be addressed to expand both the development and application of neuromorphic computing.

Patton, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tribol Interface Physics Library

Tribol is a modular interface physics library featuring Lagrangian contact algorithms for explicit and implicit solid mechanics applications. More broadly, Tribol supports the research, development, and implementation of numerical methods for interface physics.

Settgast, RandolphR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct numerical simulations for hybrid rocket boundary layers: Performance modeling and scaling

This paper presents a comprehensive performance and scaling analysis of direct numerical simulations for reacting boundary layers, focusing on slab burner configurations. Using a PETSc-based finite volume CFD framework, the study evaluates the scalability and computational cost of flow, chemistry, and radiation evaluations across 2D and 3D simulations. Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) is the fuel with pure O 2 as the oxidizer, modeled using a detailed chemical kinetics mechanism with 113 species and 660 reactions. A ray-tracing-based radiation solver, designed for distributed memory applications, is implemented to model radiation heat transfer. Parallel scalability is analyzed for the coupled flow, chemistry, and radiation heat transfer processes. Weak and strong scaling studies are conducted on up to 15,000 computational ranks, revealing robust performance when flow cells exceed 200 per rank. Chemistry evaluations dominate the computational cost in large 3D simulations, accounting for approximately 40% of the total runtime, while flow processes contribute around 35%, and radiation solver contributions remain below 10% due to reduced evaluation frequencies. GPU accelerated chemistry evaluation, implemented with Zero-RK, demonstrates significant promise, achieving up to a 4x speedup for workloads exceeding 30,000 cells per GPU. However, diminishing returns are observed for smaller workloads due to CPU-GPU communication overhead. This study identifies key challenges, including memory bottlenecks and the effects of domain partitioning on flow scalability, while highlighting the potential of GPU-accelerated chemistry to reduce computational costs. In conclusion, these findings provide realizable run configurations for 2D, 3D, and GPU-accelerated cases, offering insights for optimizing reactive flow solvers.

CFD Scalability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Area Distribution System State Estimation Using Decentralized Physics-Aware Neural Networks

The development of active distribution grids requires more accurate and lower computational cost state estimation. In this paper, the authors investigate a decentralized learning-based distribution system state estimation (DSSE) approach for large distribution grids. The proposed approach decomposes the feeder-level DSSE into subarea-level estimation problems that can be solved independently. The proposed method is decentralized pruned physics-aware neural network (D-P2N2). The physical grid topology is used to parsimoniously design the connections between different hidden layers of the D-P2N2. Monte Carlo simulations based on one-year of load consumption data collected from smart meters for a three-phase distribution system power flow are developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123-node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classic weighted least squares and state-of-the-art learning-based DSSE approaches. Numerical results show that the D-P2N2 outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Peer-to-Peer Market-Based Control Strategy for a Smart Residential Community with Behind-the-Meter Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

behind-the-meter↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Peer-to-Peer Market-Based Control Strategy for a Smart Residential Community with Behind-the-Meter Distributed Energy Resources

This paper presents a distributed peer-to-peer market control strategy to manage and to enable resource sharing of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources in a residential community. In the proposed strategy, each consumer or prosumer determines the flexibility of their point of connection to the power network such that the obtained flexibility is network-feasible. Based on the feasible flexibility, the consumers and the prosumers trade power among each other at each time instance to fulfil their preferred load requirements while maximizing their payoffs and helping to regulate node voltages inside the community. Because the problem to be solved is non-convex, a distributed particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to coordinate the consumers/prosumers in a fully autonomous manner without any centralized or hierarchical coordination. Numerical simulations performed on a community of 48 homes demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

distributed energy resource↗