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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of an Optically Accessible RP/GOx Rotating Detonation Engine

The accurate characterization of the dynamic response of liquid jets to transient detonation wave passage is crucial for optimizing and modeling liquid-fueled rotating detonation combustors. To address this need, we have developed an optically accessible rocket RDE (RP-RDE), which utilizes liquid RP-1 and gaseous oxygen as propellants and operates at elevated pressures. The experimental setup features optical access from the oxidizer injection plenum to the combustor exit, allowing for detailed characterization of injection, mixing, and combustion processes and their impact on the detonation wave structure. To design and develop the liquid injection scheme for the RP-RDE test article, we employed a combined experimental and numerical approach that included cold-flow simulations. Our aim was to optimize the liquid injection process and ensure that the resulting fuel-oxidizer mixture is homogeneous and stable. To this end, high-speed optical imaging will be employed to provide qualitative visualization of the liquid and gaseous phases of the propellant as well as the local heat release during detonation wave propagation through the non-premixed medium. This work will provide critical insights into the behavior of the transient detonation waves in more relevant rocket conditions, which is essential for the optimization and modeling of rotating detonation combustors.

Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2016

Preliminary Results From a Heavily Instrumented Engine Ice Crystal Icing Test in a Ground Based Altitude Test Facility

Preliminary results from the heavily instrumented ALF502R-5 engine test conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory are discussed. The effects of ice crystal icing on a full scale engine is examined and documented. This same model engine, serial number LF01, was used during the inaugural icing test in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory facility. The uncommanded reduction of thrust (rollback) events experienced by this engine in flight were simulated in the facility. Limited instrumentation was used to detect icing on the LF01 engine. Metal temperatures on the exit guide vanes and outer shroud and the load measurement were the only indicators of ice formation. The current study features a similar engine, serial number LF11, which is instrumented to characterize the cloud entering the engine, detect/ characterize ice accretion, and visualize the ice accretion in the region of interest. Data were acquired at key LF01 test points and additional points that explored: icing threshold regions, low altitude, high altitude, spinner heat effects, and the influence of varying the facility and engine parameters. For each condition of interest, data were obtained from some selected variations of ice particle median volumetric diameter, total water content, fan speed, and ambient temperature. For several cases the NASA in-house engine icing risk assessment code was used to find conditions that would lead to a rollback event. This study further helped NASA develop necessary icing diagnostic instrumentation, expand the capabilities of the Propulsion Systems Laboratory, and generate a dataset that will be used to develop and validate in-house icing prediction and risk mitigation computational tools. The ice accretion on the outer shroud region was acquired by internal video cameras. The heavily instrumented engine showed good repeatability of icing responses when compared to the key LF01 test points and during day-to-day operation. Other noticeable observations are presented.

turbomachinery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laser Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements of Post-Shock Non-Equilibrium Species in the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube

The NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is a unique facility capable of generating high enthalpy, shock-heated impulse gas flows representative of the kinetic and radiative conditions encountered by atmospheric entry vehicles. The facility maintains a successful history with emission spectroscopy, providing measurements of absolute radiance upon which various validation studies are anchored. The central objective of this work is to develop a comprehensive tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) sensing capability to provide complementary experimental insights to existing emission techniques. More specifically, a fast-scanning TDLAS-based diagnostic targeting the cyano radical (CN) in the near-infrared(near-IR) near 926.6 nm is employed in mixtures of 2.2% CH4in N2by mole for a sweep of incident shock velocities ranging 3.0-5.5 km/s and fill pressures 0.3-1.15 Torr. Laser scan rates up to 500 kHz probe multiple absorption features to provide quantitative measurements of temperature and species number density profiles behind the incident shock. In all instances, the temperature trend is consistent between emission-inferred and TDLAS-inferred measurements. However, at the lower-velocity conditions, there is an appreciable offset between the Data Parallel Line Relaxation Code (DPLR) simulation and experimental measurements. A similar behavior is observed in number density profiles, with emission measurements providing inferences of the CN(B) and CN(A) state, while TDLAS measurements provide an additional inference of the CN(X) state. In the fast-scanned experiments, measurement inferred number densities suggest a much faster production of CN at early times than captured by the model. This discrepancy motivates ongoing, additional spectroscopic and kinetics CN experiments to resolve the accuracy of modeling assumptions.

Efaine Chang↗
NASA NTRS2024

Presound: UAV Diagnostic System Enabled by Vibration-Based Machine Learning

A low-weight, inexpensive small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that takes off, performs a mission, lands, and safely stows and recharges itself has myriad future applications ranging from agricultural imaging to last-mile package delivery. Likewise, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) systems will enable people to take air taxis from point to point in cities, rapidly moving commuters long distances without concern for road traffic and congestion. Fully electric aviation systems will be cleaner and quieter than ground transport. Cities could eliminate cars and buses, and convert roads to higher capacity bike and pedestrian throughways. Yet, for sUAS as well as UAM, system reliability and assurance is a limiting factor to deploying affordable autonomous flight systems. For this bright future of aviation to be realized, aircraft must be able to autonomously and accurately self-diagnose health issues both before takeoff and during flight. The GreenSight PreSound system is designed to identify defects on aircraft through intelligent analysis of vibration. It accomplishes this by measuring structural vibrations induced by the vehicle’s own propellers, and analyzing that data using a machine learning model that determines whether a defect is present. The PreSound system is designed to require no human oversight, and to operate across a wide array of vehicles through re-training of the model for each target aircraft. PreSound has been developed and seen limited early success using data collected from the GreenSight Dreamer sUAS, a 5lb quadrotor vehicle designed for aerial imaging applications. The final detection model, trained on data with props spinning at 50% throttle, achieves excellent performance with over 99% average accuracy in detecting blade damage using a single FFT vector input. It demonstrates the ability to generalize to new types of blade damage, correctly classifying a different type of blade damage with 98% accuracy. Full test pulses were classified with 100% accuracy, and in live testing, all sets of data during blade movement were classified accurately with over 95% confidence. When trained on in-flight data, the same model achieves an average accuracy of 85% in distinguishing between undamaged and blade-damaged states in flight. The authors believe that these accuracies show significant potential of this approach to expand unmanned flight safety, with significant potential benefits in accelerating Advanced Aerial Mobility (AAM) and UAM aviation applications.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Goddard Giovanni Support for YOTC

The fundamental challenges to overcoming our shortcomings in understanding and modeling/predicting tropical convection have been twofold: I) the need to represent the broad range of scales applicable to the tropical organization problem (i.e. cumulus to planetary), and II) the lack of observations that adequately and simultaneously characterize this broad range of scales and that also provide three-dimensional information on thermodynamic, radiative and dynamical interactions, including cloud microphysical processes. In regards to the second challenge, it should be stressed that this problem will not be solved through the production and examination of one or a few high quality long-term records of fundamental quantities (e.g., SST, water vapor, cloud fraction). Rather, an alternative and more comprehensive paradigm is needed, one that integrates the multitude of applicable resources and measures of tropical convection in a manner that that can be better utilized by the diagnostic, modeling and forecasting communities to more completely and coherently focus on the problem.Because the goal of YOTC involves examining a scientifically complex, multi-scale process , rather than documenting the characteristics of a single parameter (e.g., SST, cloud cover), YOTC has an IOP perspective that targets a period, May 2008 April 2010, long enough to encompass many cases of tropical convection activity in many of its most challenging yet influential forms. This includes mesoscale and synoptic variability, easterly waves and hurricanes, convectively coupled waves, the MJO and the culmination of these in terms of the monsoon, their interactions with the extra-tropics, and mean characteristics such as tropical-to-subtropical transitions. The YOTC time period and length are driven in part by the following: 1) keeping the multi-sensor/multi-platform and model-analyses data sets and associated infrastructure manageable, 2) facilitating a focused effort by the research and operational communities on a specific scientific problem, and 3) capitalizing on the recent key additions to the armada of satellites (e.g., CloudSat and CALIPSO). The proposed dissemination framework for the YOTC satellite data archive is based on the Giovanni system. Giovanni is a web-based application developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Science (GES) Data and Information Service Center (DISC) that provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access/download vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data. A prototype YOTC Giovanni System (hereafter YOTC-GS) is in the process of being developed. YOTC-GS will provide access to level 2 (i.e. swath level data) and/or level 3 (i.e. gridded/mapped data) forms of satellite data, the choice or both depending on what is appropriate and relevant. The former is needed and better suited for detailed process examination, exploiting the highest temporal-spatial resolutions available and comparison to regional cloud-system resolving model / cloud resolving model (CSRM/CRM) model output. The latter is needed and more well suited for examination of phenomena, conditions and processes on large to global scales, and for comparisons to global model analyses, prediction and simulation output.

Ostrenga, Dana↗
NASA NTRS1997

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Donlon, Craig↗
NASA NTRS1999

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-33601-DND

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 18 years of an accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. CERES provides the climate community the following parameters: coincident instantaneous 1? gridded CERES observed TOA fluxes, computed profile and surface fluxes, as well as MODIS cloud and aerosol retrievals. Clouds and radiation interaction one key factor that dominates climate feedbacks and is also the most difficult problem with large uncertainty. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, the climate community need data with accurate fluxes and their associated cloud properties for both observational and modelling study. The new CERES FluxByCldTyp data product is produced for this purpose. The flux product combines for the first time CERES measured TOA fluxes along with the associated MODIS cloud properties, which links radiative flux directly to a specific cloud type. This was achieved by computing sub-footprint fluxes for the clear-sky and cloudy portions of the CERES footprint. The spatially distributed cloud properties within the CERES footprint were retrieved from 2-km MODIS pixels, that were stratified by cloud type. The sub-footprint fluxes were estimated from MODIS radiances based on empirically derived narrowband to broadband coefficients. The combined sub-footprint fluxes can then be validated with the observed footprint flux. This presentation will focus on the algorithm development of the flux-by-cloud-type product and its validation.

Moguo Sun↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-33753-DND

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 18 years of an accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. CERES provides the climate community the following parameters: coincident instantaneous 1 gridded CERES observed TOA fluxes, computed profile and surface fluxes, as well as MODIS cloud and aerosol retrievals. Clouds and radiation interaction one key factor that dominates climate feedbacks and is also the most difficult problem with large uncertainty. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, the climate community need data with accurate fluxes and their associated cloud properties for both observational and modelling study. The new CERES FluxByCldTyp data product is produced for this purpose. The flux product combines for the first time CERES measured TOA fluxes along with the associated MODIS cloud properties, which links radiative flux directly to a specific cloud type. This was achieved by computing sub-footprint fluxes for the clear-sky and cloudy portions of the CERES footprint. The spatially distributed cloud properties within the CERES footprint were retrieved from 2-km MODIS pixels, that were stratified by cloud type. The sub-footprint fluxes were estimated from MODIS radiances based on empirically derived narrowband to broadband coefficients. The combined sub-footprint fluxes can then be validated with the observed footprint flux. This presentation will focus on the algorithm development of the flux-by-cloud-type product and its validation. The paper will also discuss CERES FlxbyCldTyp simulator and its application.

Moguo Sun↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ionosphere Plasma State Determination in Low Earth Orbit from International Space Station Plasma Monitor

A plasma diagnostic package is deployed on the International Space Station (ISS). The system - a Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) - is used by NASA to monitor the electrical floating potential of the vehicle to assure astronaut safety during extravehicular activity. However, data from the unit also reflects the ionosphere state and seems to represent an unutilized scientific resource in the form of an archive of scientific plasma state data. The unit comprises a Floating Potential probe and two Langmuir probes. There is also an unused but active plasma impedance probe. The data, at one second cadence, are collected, typically for a two week period surrounding extravehicular activity events. Data is also collected any time a visiting vehicle docks with ISS and also when any large solar events occur. The telemetry system is unusual because the package is mounted on a television camera stanchion and its data is impressed on a video signal that is transmitted to the ground and streamed by internet to two off center laboratory locations. The data quality has in the past been challenged by weaknesses in the integrated ground station and distribution systems. These issues, since mid‐2010, have been largely resolved and the ground stations have been upgraded. Downstream data reduction has been developed using physics based modeling of the electron and ion collecting character in the plasma. Recursive algorithms determine plasma density and temperature from the raw Langmuir probe current voltage sweeps and this is made available in real time for situational awareness. The purpose of this paper is to describe and record the algorithm for data reduction and to show that the Floating probe and Langmuir probes are capable of providing long term plasma state measurement in the ionosphere. Geophysical features such as the Appleton anomaly and high latitude modulation at the edge of the Auroral zones are regularly observed in the nearly circular, 51 deg inclined, 400 km altitude ISS orbit. Evidence of waves in the ion collection current data is seen in geographic zones known to exhibit the spread‐F phenomenon. An anomaly in the current collection characteristic of the cylindrical probe appears also too be organized by the geomagnetic field.

Kramer, Leonard↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2012

Probable Rotation States of Rocket Bodies in Low Earth Orbit

In order for Active Debris Removal to be accomplished, it is critically important to understand the probable rotation states of orbiting, spent rocket bodies. As compared to the question of characterizing small unresolved debris, in this problem there are several advantages: (1) objects are of known size, mass, shape and color, (2) they have typically been in orbit for a known period of time, (3) they are large enough that resolved images may be obtainable for verification of predicted orientation, and (4) the dynamical problem is simplified to first order by largely cylindrical symmetry. It is also nearly certain for realistic rocket bodies that internal friction is appreciable in the case where residual liquid or, to a lesser degree, unconsolidated solid fuels exist. Equations of motion have been developed for this problem in which internal friction as well as torques due to solar radiation, magnetic induction, and gravitational gradient are included. In the case of pure cylindrical symmetry, the results are compared to analytical predictions patterned after the standard approach for analysis of symmetrical tops. This is possible because solar radiation and gravitational torques may be treated as conservative. Agreement between results of both methods ensures their mutual validity. For monotone symmetric cylinders, solar radiation torque vanishes if the center of mass resides at the geometric center of the object. Results indicate that in the absence of solar radiation effects, rotation states tend toward an equilibrium configuration in which rotation is about the axis of maximum inertia, with the axis of minimum inertia directed toward the center of the earth. Solar radiation torque introduces a modification to this orientation. The equilibrium state is asymptotically approached within a characteristic timescale given by a simple ratio of relevant characterizing parameters for the body in question. Light curves are simulated for the expected asymptotic final rotation states of model objects, and these are compared to data derived from physical models of the same objects, tested in the Optical Measurements Center at JSC. Comparison to relevant light curves from actual orbiting rocket bodies are also performed, and diagnostic features of such curves are examined.

Ojakangas, Gregory W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Biology-inspired Architecture for Situation Management

Situation Management is a rapidly developing science combining new techniques for data collection with advanced methods of data fusion to facilitate the process leading to correct decisions prescribing action. Current research focuses on reducing increasing amounts of diverse data to knowledge used by decision makers and on reducing time between observations, decisions and actions. No new technology is more promising for increasing the diversity and fidelity of observations than sensor networks. However, current research on sensor networks concentrates on a centralized network architecture. We believe this trend will not realize the full potential of situation management. We propose a new architecture modeled after biological ecosystems where motes are autonomous and intelligent, yet cooperate with local neighborhoods. Providing a layered approach, they sense and act independently when possible, and cooperate with neighborhoods when necessary. The combination of their local actions results in global effects. While situation management research is currently dominated by military applications, advances envisioned for industrial and business applications have similar requirements. NASA has requirements for intelligent and autonomous systems in future missions that can benefit from advances in situation management. We describe requirements for the Integrated Vehicle Health Management program where our biology-inspired architecture provides a layered approach and decisions can be made at the proper level to improve safety, reduce costs, and improve efficiency in making diagnostic and prognostic assessments of the structural integrity, aerodynamic characteristics, and operation of aircraft.

Jones, Kennie H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Collection 6 'dark-target' MODIS Aerosol Products

Aerosol retrieval algorithms are applied to Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on both Terra and Aqua, creating two streams of decade-plus aerosol information. Products of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol size are used for many applications, but the primary concern is that these global products are comprehensive and consistent enough for use in climate studies. One of our major customers is the international modeling comparison study known as AEROCOM, which relies on the MODIS data as a benchmark. In order to keep up with the needs of AEROCOM and other MODIS data users, while utilizing new science and tools, we have improved the algorithms and products. The code, and the associated products, will be known as Collection 6 (C6). While not a major overhaul from the previous Collection 5 (C5) version, there are enough changes that there are significant impacts to the products and their interpretation. In its entirety, the C6 algorithm is comprised of three sub-algorithms for retrieving aerosol properties over different surfaces: These include the dark-target DT algorithms to retrieve over (1) ocean and (2) vegetated-dark-soiled land, plus the (3) Deep Blue (DB) algorithm, originally developed to retrieve over desert-arid land. Focusing on the two DT algorithms, we have updated assumptions for central wavelengths, Rayleigh optical depths and gas (H2O, O3, CO2, etc.) absorption corrections, while relaxing the solar zenith angle limit (up to 84) to increase pole-ward coverage. For DT-land, we have updated the cloud mask to allow heavy smoke retrievals, fine-tuned the assignments for aerosol type as function of season location, corrected bugs in the Quality Assurance (QA) logic, and added diagnostic parameters such as topographic altitude. For DT-ocean, improvements include a revised cloud mask for thin-cirrus detection, inclusion of wind speed dependence in the retrieval, updates to logic of QA Confidence flag (QAC) assignment, and additions of important diagnostic information. At the same time as we have introduced algorithm changes, we have also accounted for upstream changes including: new instrument calibration, revised land-sea masking, and changed cloud masking. Upstream changes also impact the coverage and global statistics of the retrieved AOD. Although our responsibility is to the DT code and products, we have also added a product that merges DT and DB product over semi-arid land surfaces to provide a more gap-free dataset, primarily for visualization purposes. Preliminary validation shows that compared to surface-based sunphotometer data, the C6, Level 2 (along swath) DT-products compare at least as well as those from C5. C6 will include new diagnostic information about clouds in the aerosol field, including an aerosol cloud mask at 500 m resolution, and calculations of the distance to the nearest cloud from clear pixels. Finally, we have revised the strategy for aggregating and averaging the Level 2 (swath) data to become Level 3 (gridded) data. All together, the changes to the DT algorithms will result in reduced global AOD (by 0.02) over ocean and increased AOD (by 0.02) over land, along with changes in spatial coverage. Changes in calibration will have more impact to Terras time series, especially over land. This will result in a significant reduction in artificial differences in the Terra and Aqua datasets, and will stabilize the MODIS data as a target for AEROCOM studie

Aerosol retrieval algorithms↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Cannonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the US

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble cannonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into nonoverlapping sectors. The cannonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all regions of the US and for all seasonal compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduced the spring predictability barrier over all regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and regional regional data. Moreover, the ECC forecasts can be applied to other climate subsystems and, in conjunction with further diagnostic or model studies will enables a better understanding of the dynamic links between climate variations and precipitation, not only for the US, but also for other regions of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves from a period of minimum activity to maximum and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CME's), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by the CELIAS/SOHO experiment. We must observe a wide range of conditions (e.g., heating rate, impulsive mass ejections, magnetic field opening) in order to choose among competing theoretical explanations of the observed coronal structures and dynamics. During the first year of scientific observations (1 April 1996 through 31 March 1997), the LTVCS made the first extensive ultraviolet spectroscopic observations above the base of the solar corona. Those observations revealed extremely high most probable speeds along the line of sight for O(5+) in polar coronal holes above 2 solar radii from sun center and smaller such speeds for H(0) and protons. Doppler dimming and pumping diagnostics indicated that O(5+) and H(0) I reached supersonic outflow velocities within 2 solar radii. The observations appeared to be consistent with O95+) heating and direct momentum transfer by high frequency MHD waves through ion cyclotron resonance. Equatorial streamers were found to appear much different when observed in O VI, Fe XII and Mg X than when observed in H I Lyman-alpha or visible light. This led G. Noci to suggest that the elemental abundance of O, Fe, and Mg are lower in the dark center region of the O VI streamer image than it is in the brighter outer legs of the streamer. The O VI line ratio indicated a much smaller outflow speed in streamers than in the surrounding coronal holes. Spectroscopic observations of CME's in June and December 1996 showed large Doppler shifts indicating macroscopic flows of up to 200 km/s transverse to the apparent motion of the CME. The December event displayed factor of 500 intensity increases in H I Lyman lines and bright emissions in cool ion lines like C III 977 A indicating that the origin of some of the gas was a prominence. UVCS also observed two comets, several stars and interplanetary hydrogen. In the current reporting period, the initial results were published and detailed analyses including self consistent empirical models were developed. The research results were reported, published or submitted/accepted for publication. New observations were made to uncover additional information about the surprising results of the first year and other new observations revealed more surprises. A UVCS Tutorial was developed to familiarize potential users of UVCS data with the data products, analysis techniques and coronal models needed to analyze the data.

Kohl, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Repurposing Drilling Control Diagnostics for Subsurface Edge Detection and Boundary Advisement During Planetary Drilling

Informed decision-making during lunar drilling and sampling missions will require data monitoring tools and specialized ground data systems. Accurate and updated situational awareness, with ongoing data monitoring, is critical for timely responses by to incoming science data. Traverse plans and scheduled activities may need to be flexibly changed in order to react to unexpected data or situations. Unlike (for example) Mars missions, the relative lightspeed closeness of the Moon allows for near-real-time ground processing of incoming mission and instrument data. An Apollo-class lunar regolith drill will in a sense “travel” a meter or two vertically at a given subsurface characterization site. As the drill penetrates into lunar regolith, it is likely to encounter a range of material densities, orientations, fracture toughness, and (perhaps) ice percentages. Lunar drill telemetry can provide science teams with a valuable first look into the subsurface structure, the regolith bulk properties, and constituents at each drilled site. Real-time AI-based recognition and reaction to downhole situations has been developed for automated deeper drilling on Mars and beyond. We can leverage the same knowledge bases and pattern-matching as areal-time interpreter of the subsurface, a situational awareness tool during drilling operations. We recently (Sept. 2019) demonstrated this AI drilling monitoring and analysis capability, in control of in-situ drilling and sampling operations, mounted on a KREX-2 rover in Chile’s Atacama Desert. Terrestrial automated drilling log analyses in oil exploration have used similar machine learning techniques in classifying and identifying features in drilling logs –but these typically are designed assuming a drilling fluid influencing downhole measurements and data (permeability, resistivity). Drilling models and existing AI software designed to detect and respond to drilling faults and hard materials can be repurposed, for near-real-time (ground-based) interpretation of drilling telemetry –a potentially valuable advisory tool for strata boundaries and changes in drilling parameters. On the Moon, this approach could be used to study the structure and to some extent the composition of lunar regolith vs. borehole depth, based on recognizable variations in fracture hardness, drilling energy and penetration rates while actively drilling. Since the early 2000s, a series of increasingly-capable real-time drilling telemetry interpretation and characterization software tools have been developed. These subsurface models and software tools have monitored the real-time drilling data received, and automatically identified changes in drill behavior (e.g., encountering a harder target layer, bit inclusions, drill choking due to infall downhole, and others) correlating these with subsurface structures and features. We discuss the mappings between drill borehole parameters, faults or events detected, and modeled changes in rock layer boundaries, in examples drawn from field testing at analog sites in an Arctic impact crater, Rio Tinto, and Chile’s Atacama Desert. These demonstrate how subsurface structural boundaries led to fault detections and responses by the software.

drilling advisor↗