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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

On the X-ray spectrum of Kepler's supernova remnant

We have devised a method to do nonequilibrium ionization calculations on the results of two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations, based on the algorithm of Hughes & Helfand (1985). We have calculated the ionization structure and X-ray emission for a two-dimensional numerical hydrodynamical simulation for the remnant of Kepler's supernova (SN); the hydrodynamical model was presented in a previous paper. In this model, the progenitor of Kepler's SN is assumed to have been a massive runaway star ejected from the Galactic plane. In its red supergiant stage, its dense stellar wind was distorted and compressed into a bow shock by the ram pressure of the tenuous interstellar medium. The subsequent interaction of the supernova ejecta with this asymmetric circumstellar matter produced a strongly asymmetric supernova remnant (SNR). In this paper, we present calculated X-ray spectra for this hydrodynamical model. A comparison with observations implies a moderate overabundance of Fe in Kepler's SNR (only 50% larger than its cosmic value), in contrast to a large (6 to 15) Fe overabundance derived previously. However, we confirm earlier conclusions that Si and S abundances are 2 to 3 times solar. These modest enhancements of Si, S, and Fe may be attributed either to heavy-element enriched SN ejecta or to the initial chemical abundances of the SN progenitor, which originated in the metal-rich inner Galaxy. The comparison of our models with the observed spectra confirm theoretical predictions that moderate electron heating occurs at strong collisionless shock fronts, with the implied electron/mean temperature ratio of approximately 0.5.

Borkowski, Kazimierz J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The kinematics of dense clusters of galaxies. 3: Comparison with cosmological models

We compare the combined distribution of 31 group and 25 cluster velocity dispersions with the ensemble of 32 models for the formation and evolution of large-scale structure examined by Weinberg & Cole (1992). The models include Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial fluctuations, different power law spectra (n = -1, n = 0, n = -2, 'pancake'), flat (Omega = 1) and open (Omega = 0.2) cosmologies, and unbiased (b(sub 8) = 1) and biased (b(sub 8) = 2) galaxy formation. The set of initial conditions we test, although limited, samples enough parameter space to indicate which general classes of models are consistent with the data. The two Gaussian, n = -1 models which best approximate the standard and open Cold Dark Matter (CDM) models do not match the observed distribution of velocity dispersions; models with b(sub 8) = 2 and Omega = 1 ('standard') or b(sub 8) = 1 and Omega = 0.2 ('open') predict too large a ratio of low to high velocity dispersion systems. A 'COBE-normalized' CDM model with b(sub 8) = 1 and Omega = 1 produces clusters with velocity dispersions higher than those measured. All three models overestimate the total abundance of systems.

Zabludoff, Ann I.↗
NASA NTRS1994

DE1 observations of polar O(+) stream bulk parameters and comparison with a model of the centrifugally-accelerated polar wind

A survey of bulk parameters of analyzable O(+) outward streams in the midaltitude (3-4.7 R(sub E) geocentric distance) polar cap magnetosphere is obtained from measurments by the Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) aboard the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE1) spacecraft. There is wide scatter in the obtained densities, but they do display discernible trends: the average O(+) density in these decreases from about 30 ions/cu cm at 3.5 R(sub E) to about 1 ion/cu cm at 4.6 R(sub E). The streaming velocities are somewhat more defined, and their average increases from about 8 km/s at 3.5 R(sub E) to about 12 km/s at 4 R(sub E). The outward ion flux increases by a factor of 4 with magnetic activity from K(sub p) = 2 to 5. We have further compared these observational trends with model profiles for the centrifugally-accelerated polar wind as recently described by Horwitz et al. (1994). The large outflow velocities observed can be understood in part as centrifugally-driven by convection with ionospheric electric field magnitudes of the order 50-70 mV/m, purhaps including plasma expansion effects.

Wing Ho, C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

High temperature superconductors applications in telecommunications

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to discuss high temperature superconductors with specific reference to their employment in telecommunications applications; and (2) to discuss a few of the limitations of the normally employed two-fluid model. While the debate on the actual usage of high temperature superconductors in the design of electronic and telecommunications devices - obvious advantages versus practical difficulties - needs to be settled in the near future, it is of great interest to investigate the parameters and the assumptions that will be employed in such designs. This paper deals with the issue of providing the microwave design engineer with performance data for such superconducting waveguides. The values of conductivity and surface resistance, which are the primary determining factors of a waveguide performance, are computed based on the two-fluid model. A comparison between two models - a theoretical one in terms of microscopic parameters (termed Model A) and an experimental fit in terms of macroscopic parameters (termed Model B) - shows the limitations and the resulting ambiguities of the two-fluid model at high frequencies and at temperatures close to the transition temperature. The validity of the two-fluid model is then discussed. Our preliminary results show that the electrical transport description in the normal and superconducting phases as they are formulated in the two-fluid model needs to be modified to incorporate the new and special features of high temperature superconductors. Parameters describing the waveguide performance - conductivity, surface resistance and attenuation constant - will be computed. Potential applications in communications networks and large scale integrated circuits will be discussed. Some of the ongoing work will be reported. In particular, a brief proposal is made to investigate of the effects of electromagnetic interference and the concomitant notion of electromagnetic compatibility (EMI/EMC) of high T(sub c) superconductors.

Kumar, A. Anil↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of Turbulence Models for Nozzle-Afterbody Flows with Propulsive Jets

A numerical investigation was conducted to assess the accuracy of two turbulence models when computing non-axisymmetric nozzle-afterbody flows with propulsive jets. Navier-Stokes solutions were obtained for a Convergent-divergent non-axisymmetric nozzle-afterbody and its associated jet exhaust plume at free-stream Mach numbers of 0.600 and 0.938 at an angle of attack of 0 deg. The Reynolds number based on model length was approximately 20 x 10(exp 6). Turbulent dissipation was modeled by the algebraic Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model with the Degani-Schiff modification and by the standard Jones-Launder kappa-epsilon turbulence model. At flow conditions without strong shocks and with little or no separation, both turbulence models predicted the pressures on the surfaces of the nozzle very well. When strong shocks and massive separation existed, both turbulence models were unable to predict the flow accurately. Mixing of the jet exhaust plume and the external flow was underpredicted. The differences in drag coefficients for the two turbulence models illustrate that substantial development is still required for computing very complex flows before nozzle performance can be predicted accurately for all external flow conditions.

Compton, William B., III↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Computational, Model and Experimental, Example Trained Neural Networks for Processing Speckled Fringe Patterns

The responses of artificial neural networks to experimental and model-generated inputs are compared for detection of damage in twisted fan blades using electronic holography. The training-set inputs, for this work, are experimentally generated characteristic patterns of the vibrating blades. The outputs are damage-flag indicators or second derivatives of the sensitivity-vector-projected displacement vectors from a finite element model. Artificial neural networks have been trained in the past with computational-model- generated training sets. This approach avoids the difficult inverse calculations traditionally used to compare interference fringes with the models. But the high modeling standards are hard to achieve, even with fan-blade finite-element models.

Decker, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Contamination Model Predictions to LDEF Surface Measurements

Contaminant deposition measurements have been made on species content and depth profiles on three experiments trays from the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), Auger, Argon sputtering, Electron Spectroscopy for Chemical Analysis (ESCA) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) analysis. The integrated spacecraft environment model (ISEM) was used to predict the deposition levels of the contaminants measured on the three trays. The details of the modeling and assumptions used are presented along with the predictions for the deposition on select surfaces on the trays. These are compared to the measured results. The trays represent surfaces that have a high atomic oxygen flux, and intermediate oxygen flux, and no oxygen flux. All surfaces received significant solar Ultraviolet flux. It appears that the atomic oxygen was the primary agent that caused significant deposition to occur. Surfaces that saw significant contaminant flux solar UV and no atomic oxygen did not show any appreciable levels of observable deposition. The implications of the atom ic oxygen interaction with contaminant deposits containing silicon contaminant sources is discussed. The primary contaminant sources are DC61104 adhesive and Z306 paint. The results and interpretation of the findings have a potential significant impact on spacecraft surfaces that are exposed to solar UV and atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit.

Gordon, Tim↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison Of Human Modelling Tools For Efficiency Of Prediction Of EVA Tasks

Construction of the International Space Station (ISS) will require extensive extravehicular activity (EVA, spacewalks), and estimates of the actual time needed continue to rise. As recently as September, 1996, the amount of time to be spent in EVA was believed to be about 400 hours, excluding spacewalks on the Russian segment. This estimate has recently risen to over 1100 hours, and it could go higher before assembly begins in the summer of 1998. These activities are extremely expensive and hazardous, so any design tools which help assure mission success and improve the efficiency of the astronaut in task completion can pay off in reduced design and EVA costs and increased astronaut safety. The tasks which astronauts can accomplish in EVA are limited by spacesuit mobility. They are therefore relatively simple, from an ergonomic standpoint, requiring gross movements rather than time motor skills. The actual tasks include driving bolts, mating and demating electric and fluid connectors, and actuating levers; the important characteristics to be considered in design improvement include the ability of the astronaut to see and reach the item to be manipulated and the clearance required to accomplish the manipulation. This makes the tasks amenable to simulation in a Computer-Assisted Design (CAD) environment. For EVA, the spacesuited astronaut must have his or her feet attached on a work platform called a foot restraint to obtain a purchase against which work forces may be actuated. An important component of the design is therefore the proper placement of foot restraints.

Dischinger, H. Charles, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Toroidal wave frequency at L=6-10: AMPTE/CCE Observations and Comparison with Theoretical Model

Magnetospheric standing Alfven waves are guided along the ambient magnetic field and their frequency depends on the mass density of the plasma distributed along the field lines. These properties allow us to use Alfen waves to map time-dependent phenomena between space and ground and to estimate the mass density. In this paper we present a statistical study of the spatial variation of the fundamental frequency f(sub T1) of toroidal-mode standing Alfen waves in the L range from 6 to 10, where L indicates the maximum geocentric distance on the field line. The data used for this analysis are energetic particle flux anisotropy (proxy of transverse electric field) and magnetic field measurements from the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) spacecraft. Using CCE data covering 4 years we obtained approximately 5000 20-min intervals containing a clear signature of toroidal waves. The median f(sub T1), is 6-10 mHz at L=7 and decreases to 4-8 mHz at L = . The frequency tends to be lower at noon than at midnight. The observed frequencies are compared with numerically derived frequencies using an empirical mass density model and a magnetic field model. We found a good agreement for 12-24 MLT but a large discrepancy near MLT= 3. This may indicate that the flux tubes at this local time are more heavily loaded than specified in the Gallagher et al. model.

Takahashi, Kazue↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Comparison of Approximation Modeling Techniques: Polynomial Versus Interpolating Models

Two methods of creating approximation models are compared through the calculation of the modeling accuracy on test problems involving one, five, and ten independent variables. Here, the test problems are representative of the modeling challenges typically encountered in realistic engineering optimization problems. The first approximation model is a quadratic polynomial created using the method of least squares. This type of polynomial model has seen considerable use in recent engineering optimization studies due to its computational simplicity and ease of use. However, quadratic polynomial models may be of limited accuracy when the response data to be modeled have multiple local extrema. The second approximation model employs an interpolation scheme known as kriging developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. This class of interpolating model has the flexibility to model response data with multiple local extrema. However, this flexibility is obtained at an increase in computational expense and a decrease in ease of use. The intent of this study is to provide an initial exploration of the accuracy and modeling capabilities of these two approximation methods.

Giunta, Anthony A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Principle Component Analysis of the Evolution of the Saharan Air Layer and Dust Transport: Comparisons between a Model Simulation and MODIS Retrievals

The onset and evolution of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) episodes during June-September 2002 are diagnosed by applying principal component analysis to the NCEP reanalysis temperature anomalies at 850 hPa, where the largest SAL-induced temperature anomalies are located. The first principal component (PC) represents the onset of SAL episodes, which are associated with large warm anomalies located at the west coast of Africa. The second PC represents two opposite phases of the evolution of the SAL. The positive phase of the second PC corresponds to the southwestward extension of the warm anomalies into the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, and the negative phase corresponds to the northwestward extension into the subtropical to mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean and the southwest Europe. A dust transport model (CARMA) and the MODIS retrievals are used to study the associated effects on dust distribution and deposition. The positive (negative) phase of the second PC corresponds to a strengthening (weakening) of the offshore flows in the lower troposphere around 10deg - 20degN, causing more (less) dust being transported along the tropical to subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. The variation of the offshore flow indicates that the subseasonal variation of African Easterly Jet is associated with the evolution of the SAL. Significant correlation is found between the second PC time series and the daily West African monsoon index, implying a dynamical linkage between West African monsoon and the evolution of the SAL and Saharan dust transport.

Wong, S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Comparison of Functional Models for Use in the Function-Failure Design Method

When failure analysis and prevention, guided by historical design knowledge, are coupled with product design at its conception, shorter design cycles are possible. By decreasing the design time of a product in this manner, design costs are reduced and the product will better suit the customer s needs. Prior work indicates that similar failure modes occur with products (or components) with similar functionality. To capitalize on this finding, a knowledge base of historical failure information linked to functionality is assembled for use by designers. One possible use for this knowledge base is within the Elemental Function-Failure Design Method (EFDM). This design methodology and failure analysis tool begins at conceptual design and keeps the designer cognizant of failures that are likely to occur based on the product s functionality. The EFDM offers potential improvement over current failure analysis methods, such as FMEA, FMECA, and Fault Tree Analysis, because it can be implemented hand in hand with other conceptual design steps and carried throughout a product s design cycle. These other failure analysis methods can only truly be effective after a physical design has been completed. The EFDM however is only as good as the knowledge base that it draws from, and therefore it is of utmost importance to develop a knowledge base that will be suitable for use across a wide spectrum of products. One fundamental question that arises in using the EFDM is: At what level of detail should functional descriptions of components be encoded? This paper explores two approaches to populating a knowledge base with actual failure occurrence information from Bell 206 helicopters. Functional models expressed at various levels of detail are investigated to determine the necessary detail for an applicable knowledge base that can be used by designers in both new designs as well as redesigns. High level and more detailed functional descriptions are derived for each failed component based on NTSB accident reports. To best record this data, standardized functional and failure mode vocabularies are used. Two separate function-failure knowledge bases are then created aid compared. Results indicate that encoding failure data using more detailed functional models allows for a more robust knowledge base. Interestingly however, when applying the EFDM, high level descriptions continue to produce useful results when using the knowledge base generated from the detailed functional models.

Stock, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗
NASA NTRS2015

Modeling and Analysis of Chill and Fill Processes for the EDU Tank

NASA's future missions may require long-term storage and transfer of cryogenic propellants. The Engineering Development Unit (EDU), a NASA in-house effort supported by both Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Glenn Research Center (GRC), is a Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) test article that primarily serves as a manufacturing pathfinder and a risk reduction task for a future CFM payload. The EDU test article, comprises a flight like tank, internal components, insulation, and attachment struts. The EDU is designed to perform integrated passive thermal control performance testing with liquid hydrogen in a space-like vacuum environment. A series of tests, with liquid hydrogen as a testing fluid, was conducted at Test Stand 300 at MSFC during summer of 2014. The objective of this effort was to develop a thermal/fluid model for evaluating the thermodynamic behavior of the EDU tank during the chill and fill processes. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), an MSFC in-house general-purpose computer program for flow network analysis, was utilized to model and simulate the chill and fill portion of the testing. The model contained the liquid hydrogen supply source, feed system, EDU tank, and vent system. The modeling description and comparison of model predictions with the test data will be presented in the final paper.

Hedayat, A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Winds Measured by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) During the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover's Bagnold Dunes Campaign and Comparison with Numerical Modeling Using MarsWRF

A high density of REMS wind measurements were collected in three science investigations during MSL's Bagnold Dunes Campaign, which took place over approx. 80 sols around southern winter solstice (Ls approx. 90deg) and constituted the first in situ analysis of the environmental conditions, morphology, structure, and composition of an active dune field on Mars. The Wind Characterization Investigation was designed to fully characterize the near-surface wind field just outside the dunes and confirmed the primarily upslope/downslope flow expected from theory and modeling of the circulation on the slopes of Aeolis Mons in this season. The basic pattern of winds is 'upslope' (from the northwest, heading up Aeolis Mons) during the daytime (approx. 09:00-17:00 or 18:00) and 'downslope' (from the southeast, heading down Aeolis Mons) at night (approx. 20:00 to some time before 08:00). Between these times the wind rotates largely clockwise, giving generally westerly winds mid-morning and easterly winds in the early evening. The timings of these direction changes are relatively consistent from sol to sol; however, the wind direction and speed at any given time shows considerable intersol variability. This pattern and timing is similar to predictions from the MarsWRF numerical model, run at a resolution of approx. 490 m in this region, although the model predicts the upslope winds to have a stronger component from the E than the W, misses a wind speed peak at approx. 09:00, and under-predicts the strength of daytime wind speeds by approx. 2-4 m/s. The Namib Dune Lee Investigation reveals 'blocking' of northerly winds by the dune, leaving primarily a westerly component to the daytime winds, and also shows a broadening of the 1 Hz wind speed distribution likely associated with lee turbulence. The Namib Dune Side Investigation measured primarily daytime winds at the side of the same dune, in support of aeolian change detection experiments designed to put limits on the saltation threshold, and also appears to show the influence of the dune body on the local flow, though less clearly than in the lee. Using a vertical grid with lower resolution near the surface reduces the relative strength of nighttime winds predicted by MarsWRF and produces a peak in wind speed at approx. 09:00, improving the match to the observed diurnal variation of wind speed, albeit with an offset in magnitude. The annual wind field predicted using this grid also provides a far better match to observations of aeolian dune morphology and motion in the Bagnold Dunes. However, the lower overall wind speeds than observed and disagreement with the observed wind direction at approx. 09:00 suggest that the problem has not been solved and that alternative boundary layer mixing schemes should be explored which may result in more mixing of momentum down to the near-surface from higher layers. These results demonstrate a strong need for in situ wind data to constrain the setup and assumptions used in numerical models, so that they may be used with more confidence to predict the circulation at other times and locations on Mars.

Newman, Claire E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Maximum Carbon Uptake Rate Dominates the Interannual Variability of Global Net Ecosystem Exchange

Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long‐term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water‐limited ecosystems versus temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water‐limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems. The Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter‐comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.

Fu, Zheng↗