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At least 739 records · Page 41

A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

strain-gage balance↗

Analyzing Cyber Security Threats on Cyber-Physical Systems Using Model-Based Systems Engineering

The spectre of cyber attacks on aerospace systems can no longer be ignored given that many of the components and vulnerabilities that have been successfully exploited by the adversary on other infrastructures are the same as those deployed and used within the aerospace environment. An important consideration with respect to the mission/safety critical infrastructure supporting space operations is that an appropriate defensive response to an attack invariably involves the need for high precision and accuracy, because an incorrect response can trigger unacceptable losses involving lives and/or significant financial damage. A highly precise defensive response, considering the typical complexity of aerospace environments, requires a detailed and well-founded understanding of the underlying system where the goal of the defensive response is to preserve critical mission objectives in the presence of adversarial activity. In this paper, a structured approach for modeling aerospace systems is described. The approach includes physical elements, network topology, software applications, system functions, and usage scenarios. We leverage Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology by utilizing the Object Management Group's Systems Modeling Language to represent the system being analyzed and also utilize model transformations to change relevant aspects of the model into specialized analyses. A novel visualization approach is utilized to visualize the entire model as a three-dimensional graph, allowing easier interaction with subject matter experts. The model provides a unifying structure for analyzing the impact of a particular attack or a particular type of attack. Two different example analysis types are demonstrated in this paper: a graph-based propagation analysis based on edge labels, and a graph-based propagation analysis based on node labels.

MBSE↗

Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO 2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A fully-implicit high-order system thermal-hydraulics model for advanced non-LWR safety analyses

An advanced system analysis tool is being developed for advanced reactor safety analysis. This paper describes the underlying physics and numerical models used in the code, including the governing equations, the stabilization schemes, the high-order spatial and temporal discretization schemes, and the Jacobian Free Newton Krylov solution method. The effects of the spatial and temporal discretization schemes are investigated. Additionally, a series of verification test problems are presented to confirm the high-order schemes. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the developed system thermal-hydraulics model can be strictly verified with the theoretical convergence rates, and that it performs very well for a wide range of flow problems with high accuracy, efficiency, and minimal numerical diffusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)

Substantial uncertainties still exist in the scientific understanding of the possible interactions between urban and natural (biogenic) emissions in the production and transformation of atmospheric aerosol and the resulting impact on climate change. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) carried out in June 2010 in Central Valley, California, was a comprehensive effort designed to improve this understanding. The primary objective of the field study was to investigate the evolution of secondary organic and black carbon aerosols and their climate-related properties in the Sacramento urban plume as it was routinely transported into the forested Sierra Nevada foothills area. Urban aerosols and trace gases experienced significant physical and chemical transformations as they mixed with the reactive biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from the forest. Two heavily-instrumented ground sites - one within the Sacramento urban area and another about 40 km to the northeast in the foothills area - were set up to characterize the evolution of meteorological variables, trace gases, aerosol precursors, aerosol size, composition, and climate-related properties in freshly polluted and 'aged' urban air. On selected days, the DOE G-1 aircraft was deployed to make similar measurements upwind and across the evolving Sacramento plume in the morning and again in the afternoon. The NASA B-200 aircraft, carrying remote sensing instruments, was also deployed to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols and aerosol optical properties within and around the plume. This overview provides: a) the scientific background and motivation for the study, b) the operational and logistical information pertinent to the execution of the study, c) an overview of key observations and initial results from the aircraft and ground-based sampling platforms, and d) a roadmap of planned data analyses and focused modeling efforts that will facilitate the integration of new knowledge into improved representations of key aerosol processes in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Troposphere↗

A NASTRAN DMAP alter for the coupling of modal and physical coordinate substructures

A method is described to derive a generalized coordinate model consisting of flexible cantilever modes and rigid body modes from a physical coordinate model using a direct matrix abstraction procedure alter to rigid format 3. This model can readily be coupled to other substructures using modal synthesis techniques. It allows the use of a reduced size model for structural analyses while maintaining the capability of recovering the accelerations, forces, stresses, etc., from the original, large, complex model. This output recovery is accomplished with the use of a loads transformation matrix which relates the output parameters to the modal coordinate accelerations. In addition, a method is described to synthesize structural models consisting of hybrid coordinates for use in dynamic response analyses where one structure is described using physical coordinates and the other using generalized modal coordinates.

Wilson, T. L.↗

A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection Area (APA), located in the Uberaba region, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this region, the risk of accidents causing chemical spills is preoccupying because large quantities of dangerous materials are transported in two important distribution highways while the APA is fundamental for the protection of water resources, the riverine ecosystems and remnants of native vegetation. In some tested scenarios, model results show 60% of vulnerable areas within the studied area. The most sensitive parameter to vulnerability is soil type. To prevent soils from contamination, specific measures were proposed involving minimization of land use conflicts that would presumably raise the soil's organic matter and in the sequel restore the soil's structural functions. Additionally, the present study proposed the preservation and reinforcement of riparian forests as one measure to protect the quality of surface water. - Highlights: • A multi criteria analog model was developed to assess rural catchment vulnerability along roads. • Model parameters were defined by analogy with urban wash-off equations and routing algorithms. • The model mixes up various biophysical and socio-economic parameters. • Model application was based on a scenario analysis. • The study is focused on the Environmental Protection Area of Uberaba River, Brazil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy savings and life cycle cost analysis of advanced double skin facade system applied to old apartments in South Korea

South Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and the population density in urban areas is much higher among others. Apartments are the most common form of residential buildings due to their high population density. More than 60% of domestic residential buildings are apartments, with more than 10 million households. The high population density is a problem that has long plagued South Korea because more than 45% of apartments are old apartments that are more than 20 years old. Old apartment buildings have low thermal performance that results in lots of energy consumption. Balconies, which worked as a thermal buffer, are also being removed by residents to expand indoor space. According to the green remodeling project supported by the Korean government, the typical retrofitting method is replacing external windows with the high-efficiency window in old apartments in South Korea. Here, this paper proposes a retrofitting method using an extended double-skin façade (DSF) system that replaces exterior windows and acts as a thermal buffer. The simulation model is developed with the EnergyPlus simulation program to conduct energy performance analyses. The simulation model has been calibrated using actual experimental data collected between October 1, 2019, and January 15, 2020. Results show that the cooling, heating, and lighting energy can be reduced up to 44.1% by fully utilizing electric energy generated by solar PV panels integrated with the DSF system. The payback period is about 15 years based on the energy price provided by the utility company. Although the payback period is long, it has great potential of energy savings and CO 2 emission reductions. The DSF system should be considered as a way of renovation, considering other factors such as increased real estate values and energy cost increases in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Influence of plasma surface interactions on tokamak startup

The startup phase of a tokamak is a complex phenomenon involving burnthrough of the low-Z impurities and rampup of I{sub p}, the plasma current. The design considerations of a tokamak are closely connected with the startup modeling. Plasma evolution is analysed using a zero-dimensional model. The particle and energy balance is considered of two subclasses of plasmas which are penetrable by neutral gas, together with another component, neutrals trapped in the wall. The first subclass includes plasmas being penetrated by slow neutrals of (∼few eV) temperature. The second includes plasmas being penetrated only by fast neutrals having a temperature comparable to that of the ions. The impact of impurities on energy balance is considered through their generation by ion induced desorption of adsorbed oxygen on the first wall and physical and chemical sputtering of carbon. The paper demonstrates self-consistently that the evolution of initial phase of the discharge is intimately linked to the condition of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and the resultant plasma surface interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electron energy distributions in the extended gas nebulae associated with high-z AGN: Maxwell–Boltzmann versus κ distributions

ABSTRACT Emission line observations together with photoionization models provide important information about the ionization mechanisms, densities, temperatures, and metallicities in active galactic nuclei (AGN)-ionized gas. Photoionization models usually assume Maxwell–Boltzmann (M–B) electron energy distributions (EED), but it has been suggested that using κ distributions may be more appropriate and could potentially solve the discrepancies in temperatures and abundances found in HII regions and planetary nebulae. We consider the impact of the presence of κ distributions in photoionized nebulae associated with AGN and study how this might affect spectral modelling and abundance analyses for such regions. Using the photoionization code MAPPINGS 1e, we compute models adopting M–B and κ distributions of electron energies and compare the behaviour of emission line ratios for different values of κ, gas metallicity, density, ionization parameter, and SED slope. We find that the choice of EED can have a large impact on some UV and optical emission lines emitted by photoionized nebulae associated with AGN, and that the impact of adopting a κ distribution is strongly dependent on gas metallicity and ionization parameter. We compile a sample of line ratios for 143 type 2 AGN and compare our models against the observed line ratios. We find that for 98 objects, κ distributions provide a better fit to the observed line ratios than M–B distributions. In addition, we find that adopting κ-distributed electron energies results in significant changes in the inferred gas metallicity and ionization parameter in a significant fraction of objects.

Morais, S. G. (ORCID:0000000200927813)↗

The verification and uncertainty quantification of surrogate models used for structural analysis

High fidelity modeling of complex systems can require large finite element models to capture the physics of interest. Typically these high-order models take an excessively long time to run. For important studies such as model validation and uncertainty quantification, where probabilistic measures of the response are required, a large number of simulations of the high fidelity model with different parameters are necessary. In addition, some environments, such as an extensive random vibration excitation, require a long simulation time to capture the entire event. A process that produces a highly efficient model from the original high order model is necessary to enable these analyses. These highly efficient models are referred to as surrogate models, for their purpose is to represent the main physics that is of importance, but decrease the computational burden. A critical aspect of any surrogate model is how faithfully the efficient model represents the original high-order model. This paper describes the process for verifying a surrogate model using response quantities of interest and quantifying the introduced uncertainties in the use of the surrogate model. This is done to help any analyst if they use any surrogate model; such has, Craig-Bampton Reduc tions, POD, etc.

Ross, Michael↗

Mathematical and Numerical Analyses of Peridynamics for Multiscale Materials Modeling

We have treated the modeling, analysis, numerical analysis, and algorithmic development for nonlocal models of diffusion and mechanics. Variational formulations were developed and finite element methods were developed based on those formulations for both steady state and time dependent problems. Obstacle problems and optimization problems for the nonlocal models were also treated and connections made with fractional derivative models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

Fracture conductivity decline is a concern in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) wells due to the high content of clay in the shale. An analytical well productivity model was developed in this study considering the pressure-dependent conductivity of hydraulic fractures. The log-log diagnostic approach was used to identify the boundary-dominated flow regime rather than the linear flow regime. Case studies of seven TMS wells indicated that the proposed model allows approximation of the field data with good accuracy. Production data analyses with the model revealed that the pressure-dependent fracture conductivity in the TMS in the Mississippi section declines following a logarithmic mode, with dimensionless coefficient χ varying between 0.116 and 0.130. The pressure-dependent decline of fracture conductivity in the transient flow period is more significant than that in the boundary-dominated flow period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Transonic flutter and gust-response tests and analyses of a wind-tunnel model of a torsion free wing airplane

An exploratory study of a 1/5.5 size, complete airplane version of a torsion free wing (TFW) fighter aircraft was conducted. The TFW consisted of a wing/boom/canard assembly on each fuselage side that was interconnected by a common pivot shaft so that the TFW could rotate freely in pitch. The effect of the TFW was evaluated by comparing data obtained with the TFW free and the TFW locked to the fuselage. With the model mounted on cables to simulate an airplane free flying condition, flutter boundaries were measured at Mach number (M) from 0.85 to 1.0 and gust responses at M = 0.65 and 0.90. The critical flutter mode for the TFW free configuration was found experimentally to occur at M = 0.95 and had the rigid TFW pitch mode as its apparent aerodynamic driver.

Ruhlin, C. L.↗