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NASA NTRS2024

Integration of Automated Systems Test Campaign NC-IAS

NASA’s 2022 strategic plan included the goal to catalyze economic growth and drive innovation in the aviation industry, and to address challenges in air transportation and airspace management within the National Airspace System (NAS). The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) specifically was tasked with leading aviation innovation to enable safe and sustainable air transportation through revolutionary vehicle advances and efficient flight operations. As a part of meeting these objectives and advancing air mobility concepts, NASA initiated the National Campaign (NC) in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Project within the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP). The NC was designed to support operational demonstrations with industry as well as the research and development needed to support NASA-led research flight demonstrations. Within NC, the Integration of Automated Systems (IAS), an NC activity, tested and evaluated flight deck automation and airspace operations management functions needed to enable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This was accomplished through a partnership with Sikorsky Aircraft (specifically Sikorsky Innovations), a Lockheed Martin company, and DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), by leveraging two automation-enabled helicopters equipped with unique capabilities that enabled NASA to develop and test two-ship conflict encounters to demonstrate flight path management and hazard avoidance technologies. The enabler in this testing was NASA-developed “Middleware” (MW) software (also known as Expandable Variable Autonomy Architecture, or EVAA), which among other things allowed multiple algorithms to be incorporated into one software build that was hosted on the dissimilar-type Sikorsky helicopters. The IAS test campaign period of performance was from March 2022 through October 2023 and was structured as a phased, or spiral, approach that ultimately led to the first-ever demonstration of two-ship UAM/AAM operations designed to safely choreograph specific conflict encounters and mission scenarios to test the research algorithms for strategic and tactical aircraft deconfliction. Lessons learned are included in the body of the report. Data collected will be used to inform FAA and industry standards groups on the increasingly automated systems needed for future AAM operations. The test encounters developed for these flight tests were proven to be highly predictable, repeatable, and safely exercised flight path planning and Detect and Avoid (DAA) algorithms. These same test encounters should be leveraged by future flight test campaigns to verify that operational safety is not compromised as the AAM architecture matures. Next steps include repeating similar encounters using unmanned aircraft carrying DAA sensors in the National Airspace.

AAM↗

NASA NTRS1993

Supervised autonomous control, shared control, and teleoperation for space servicing

A local-remote telerobot system for single- and dual-arm supervised autonomy, shared control, and teleoperation has been demonstrated. The system is composed of two distinct parts: the local site, where the operator resides; and the remote site, where the robots reside. The system could be further separated into dual local sites communicating with a common remote site. This is valuable for potential space missions where a space based robotic system may be controlled either by a space based operator or by a ground based operator. Also, multiple modes of control integrated into a common system are valuable for satisfying different servicing scenarios. The remote site single arm control system is described, and its parameterization for different supervised autonomous control, shared control, and teleoperation tasks are given. Experimental results are also given for selected tasks. The tasks include compliant grasping, orbital replacement unit changeout, bolt seating and turning, electronics card removal and insertion, and door opening.

Backes, Paul G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Robotic Subsurface Analyzer and Sample Handler for Resource Reconnaissance and Preliminary Site Assessment for ISRU Activities at the Lunar Cold Traps

Since the 1960s, claims have been made that water ice deposits should exist in permanently shadowed craters near both lunar poles. Recent interpretations of data from the Lunar Prospector-Neutron Spectrometer (LP- NS) confirm that significant concentrations of hydrogen exist, probably in the form of water ice, in the permanently shadowed polar cold traps. Yet, due to the large spatial resolution (45-60 Ian) of the LP-NS measurements relative to these shadowed craters (approx.5-25 km), these data offer little certainty regarding the precise location, form or distribution of these deposits. Even less is known about how such deposits of water ice might effect lunar regolith physical properties relevant to mining, excavation, water extraction and construction. These uncertainties will need to be addressed in order to validate fundamental lunar In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) precepts by 2011. Given the importance of the in situ utilization of water and other resources to the future of space exploration a need arises for the advanced deployment of a robotic and reconfigurable system for physical properties and resource reconnaissance. Based on a collection of high-TRL. designs, the Subsurface Analyzer and Sample Handler (SASH) addresses these needs, particularly determining the location and form of water ice and the physical properties of regolith. SASH would be capable of: (1) subsurface access via drilling, on the order of 3-10 meters into both competent targets (ice, rock) and regolith, (2) down-hole analysis through drill string embedded instrumentation and sensors (Neutron Spectrometer and Microscopic Imager), enabling water ice identification and physical properties measurements; (3) core and unconsolidated sample acquisition from rock and regolith; (4) sample handling and processing, with minimized contamination, sample containerization and delivery to a modular instrument payload. This system would be designed with three mission enabling goals, including: (1) a self-contained, low power, low mass, "black box'' configuration for operations from a lander, various classes of rovers or a surface-based platform with human assistance or robotic anchoring mechanisms; (2) reconfigurable and scalable sample handling for delivery to various types of instrumentation, depending on mission requirements; and (3) the use of advanced automation control and diagnostic techniques that will afford local human deployed, remote teleoperation and fully autonomous intelligent operations. Though a great deal of technology has been advanced toward these objectives, the SASH system faces significant design challenges, including the low gravity environment, various levels of autonomy in operations, radiation exposure, dust contamination, and temperature extremes and deltas. Significant input from the scientific and engineering communities, as well as a significant environmental testing program, will be required to guide the design process.

Gorevan, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

Orr, M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Artificial Intelligence - The Future of Space Communications

Presentation focus on the Cognitive Communications Project Overview. The project aims to develop cognitive communications technologies to increase mission science return and improve resource efficiencies. Another key aspect of the project is understanding the fundamental aspects of cognitive technology and developing artificial intelligence to advance the future of space communications. This involves the use of machine learning algorithms in the next generation architecture for space communications in the effort to increase efficiency, autonomy and increased performance of the space communication and navigations next generation architecture.

Briones, Janette C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Trusted Autonomy for Space Flight Systems

NASA has long supported research on intelligent control technologies that could allow space systems to operate autonomously or with reduced human supervision. Proposed uses range from automated control of entire space vehicles to mobile robots that assist or substitute for astronauts to vehicle systems such as life support that interact with other systems in complex ways and require constant vigilance. The potential for pervasive use of such technology to extend the kinds of missions that are possible in practice is well understood, as is its potential to radically improve the robustness, safety and productivity of diverse mission systems. Despite its acknowledged potential, intelligent control capabilities are rarely used in space flight systems. Perhaps the most famous example of intelligent control on a spacecraft is the Remote Agent system flown on the Deep Space One mission (1998 - 2001). However, even in this case, the role of the intelligent control element, originally intended to have full control of the spacecraft for the duration of the mission, was reduced to having partial control for a two-week non-critical period. Even this level of mission acceptance was exceptional. In most cases, mission managers consider intelligent control systems an unacceptable source of risk and elect not to fly them. Overall, the technology is not trusted. From the standpoint of those who need to decide whether to incorporate this technology, lack of trust is easy to understand. Intelligent high-level control means allowing software io make decisions that are too complex for conventional software. The decision-making behavior of these systems is often hard to understand and inspect, and thus hard to evaluate. Moreover, such software is typically designed and implemented either as a research product or custom-built for a particular mission. In the former case, software quality is unlikely to be adequate for flight qualification and the functionality provided by the system is likely driven largely by the need to publish innovative work. In the latter case, the mission represents the first use of the system, a risky proposition even for relatively simple software.

Freed, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2019

Crew Autonomy Scheduling: Scheduling Performance Pilot Study

The purpose of this pilot study is to quantify crew performance in self-scheduling through Playbook, a mobile-based scheduling and planning tool. By investigating human performance within the task of self-scheduling, we can further develop countermeasures that can mitigate deficient scheduling performance, and evaluate changes as a result of these countermeasures. Moreover, this research can advise the development of standards and guidelines for autonomous crews in future missions. In human spaceflight today, the task of planning crew member’s schedules falls to Ops Planners. It takes many weeks to plan due to the complex impact each day-to-day activity can have on other activities, crew members, and resources. These impacts are measured as constraints, and these constraints can result in temporal, ordering, or resource requirements. As future spaceflight missions span longer distances and the latency of communication between the crew and Mission Control Center (MCC) increases, the need for crew members to work independently from MCC will also increase. This results in a need for crew members to be able to autonomously plan and adjust their own schedules.

planning↗

NASA NTRS2014

Avionics Architectures for Exploration: Ongoing Efforts in Human Spaceflight

The field of Avionics is advancing far more rapidly in terrestrial applications than in spaceflight applications. Spaceflight Avionics are not keeping pace with expectations set by terrestrial experience, nor are they keeping pace with the need for increasingly complex automation and crew interfaces as we move beyond Low Earth Orbit. NASA must take advantage of the strides being made by both space-related and terrestrial industries to drive our development and sustaining costs down. This paper describes ongoing efforts by the Avionics Architectures for Exploration (AAE) project chartered by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program to evaluate new avionic architectures and technologies, provide objective comparisons of them, and mature selected technologies for flight and for use by other AES projects. The AAE project team includes members from most NASA centers, and from industry. It is our intent to develop a common core avionic system that has standard capabilities and interfaces, and contains the basic elements and functionality needed for any spacecraft. This common core will be scalable and tailored to specific missions. It will incorporate hardware and software from multiple vendors, and be upgradeable in order to infuse incremental capabilities and new technologies. It will maximize the use of reconfigurable open source software (e.g., Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Core Flight Software (CFS)). Our long-term focus is on improving functionality, reliability, and autonomy, while reducing size, weight, and power. Where possible, we will leverage terrestrial commercial capabilities to drive down development and sustaining costs. We will select promising technologies for evaluation, compare them in an objective manner, and mature them to be available for future programs. The remainder of this paper describes our approach, technical areas of emphasis, integrated test experience and results as of mid-2014, and future plans. As a part of the AES Program, we are encouraged to set aggressive goals and fall short if necessary, rather than to set our sights too low. We are also asked to emphasize providing our personnel with hands-on experience in development, integration, and testing. That we have embraced both of these philosophies will be evident in the descriptions below.

Goforth, Montgomery B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supervised Autonomous Assembly to Create and Evolve Persistent Assets

Supervised autonomous assembly (SAA) will create a paradigm shift in the planning and design of future persistent assets (PAs), both in near zero-g environments and on planetary surfaces. SAA refers to an autonomy approach that has the benefits of autonomous assembly as well as the benefits provided by a supervisor (operator) who is available to resolve unexpected situations. SAA provides both increased design freedom as well as reduced programmatic risk. SAA enables evolution of future PAs over decades as in-space operations transition from single purpose missions to creation of PAs, such as laboratories and experimental stations which more closely resembling terrestrial laboratories that can easily adapt and evolve to new missions leveraging repeated visits to the PA. The ability to evolve enables PAs to rapidly respond to changing objectives resulting from new questions as our understanding improves. A recently initiated National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) project in the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Game Changing Development (GCD) Program called the Precision Assembled Space Structure (PASS), leverages the advantages of SAA to develop technologies that enable efficient creation and evolution of hexagonal topologies; both planar (example: fuel depots) and curved (examples: telescopes and shelters). PASS will be used to provide context for the philosophy and concepts discussed as well as the decision and selections made. PASS objectives are: a) Develop confidence in SAA and on-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing (OSAM) technologies by executing a test campaign that uses a path-to-flight autonomous precision assembly process directly applicable to future space telescopes. b) Test autonomous technologies including automated path planning and error recovery, to emphasize a robust approach that relies on generic robots and special purpose tools. c) Validate critical component models using a digital twin that includes the assembled primary mirror support structure and assembly process. A digital twin is a high-fidelity simulation of the asset capable of predicting the on-orbit performance. The paper concludes after identifying the critical need for a modest assembly flight experiment to validate and develop confidence in the SAA paradigm, thus accelerating adoption of the benefits described. SAA is a game changing paradigm that enhances the ability of an organization to infuse new technology through rapid evolution of PAs while leveraging OSAM technologies.

Structural Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2020

Partially Observable Games for Secure Autonomy

Technology development efforts in autonomy and cyber-defense have been evolving independently of each other, over the past decade. In this paper, we report our ongoing effort to integrate these two presently distinct areas into a single framework. To this end, we propose the two-player partially observable stochastic game formalism to capture both high-level autonomous mission planning under uncertainty and adversarial decision making subject to imperfect information. We show that synthesizing sub-optimal strategies for such games is possible under finite-memory assumptions for both the autonomous decision maker and the cyber-adversary. We then describe an experimental testbed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed framework.

Ames, Aaron D.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Automated Generation and Assessment of Autonomous Systems Test Cases

This slide presentation reviews some of the issues concerning verification and validation testing of autonomous spacecraft routinely culminates in the exploration of anomalous or faulted mission-like scenarios using the work involved during the Dawn mission's tests as examples. Prioritizing which scenarios to develop usually comes down to focusing on the most vulnerable areas and ensuring the best return on investment of test time. Rules-of-thumb strategies often come into play, such as injecting applicable anomalies prior to, during, and after system state changes; or, creating cases that ensure good safety-net algorithm coverage. Although experience and judgment in test selection can lead to high levels of confidence about the majority of a system's autonomy, it's likely that important test cases are overlooked. One method to fill in potential test coverage gaps is to automatically generate and execute test cases using algorithms that ensure desirable properties about the coverage. For example, generate cases for all possible fault monitors, and across all state change boundaries. Of course, the scope of coverage is determined by the test environment capabilities, where a faster-than-real-time, high-fidelity, software-only simulation would allow the broadest coverage. Even real-time systems that can be replicated and run in parallel, and that have reliable set-up and operations features provide an excellent resource for automated testing. Making detailed predictions for the outcome of such tests can be difficult, and when algorithmic means are employed to produce hundreds or even thousands of cases, generating predicts individually is impractical, and generating predicts with tools requires executable models of the design and environment that themselves require a complete test program. Therefore, evaluating the results of large number of mission scenario tests poses special challenges. A good approach to address this problem is to automatically score the results based on a range of metrics. Although the specific means of scoring depends highly on the application, the use of formal scoring - metrics has high value in identifying and prioritizing anomalies, and in presenting an overall picture of the state of the test program. In this paper we present a case study based on automatic generation and assessment of faulted test runs for the Dawn mission, and discuss its role in optimizing the allocation of resources for completing the test program.

Testing challenges↗

NASA NTRS1974

Human vs autonomous control of planetary roving vehicles

Supervisory or semiautonomous control has some compelling advantages over step-by-step human command and verification for the operation of roving vehicles on remote planetary surfaces. There are also disadvantages in relation to the complex system that must be mobilized and the chain of events that must be enacted to conduct a mission. Which of the two control methods is better on technical grounds may not be the deciding factor in its acceptance or rejection. Some of the issues that affect changes in spacecraft design and operation are summarized. To accelerate the movement toward more autonomous machines, it will be necessary to understand and to address the problems that such autonomy will create for other elements of the control system and for the control process.

Whitney, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Demonstration of Autonomous Nested Search for Local Maxima using an Unmanned Underwater Vehicle, ICRA Submission

Ocean Worlds represent one of the best chances for extra-terrestrial life in our solar system. A new mission concept must be developed to explore these oceans. This mission would require traversing the 10s of km thick icy shell and releasing a submersible into the ocean below. During the transit of the icy shell and the exploration of the ocean, the vehicle(s) would be out of contact with Earth for weeks or potentially months at a time. During this time the vehicle must have sufficient autonomy to locate and study scientific targets of interest. One such target of interest is hydrothermal venting. We have previously developed an autonomous nested search method to locate and investigate sources of hydrothermal venting by locating local maxima in hydrothermal vent emissions. In this work we demonstrate this approach on board an OceanServer Iver2 AUV in Chesapeake Bay, MD using simulated sensor data from a hydrothermal plume model. This represents the first step towards the deployment of this approach in conditions analogous to those that we might expect on an Ocean World.

Branch, Andrew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strategy for Advancing Earth Independent Medical Operations

Exploration medical operations to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for providing in-mission medical care. The greater distance from Earth is the primary hazard that drives the need for a medical operations paradigm shift from low earth orbit mission. Increasingly complex long duration and long distance missions will have resource constraints (ex: mass, power, volume, data), a paucity of resupply or evacuation opportunities, and disruptions in real-time communications. In order to advance a more autonomous medical approach, a multi-faceted strategy will need to optimize all aspects of human health and performance in space. This strategy will include: increasing onboard medical autonomy through the development of novel crew health and performance systems; decision support capabilities to augment astronauts’ abilities in preventing, diagnosing, and treating medical conditions; creating new procedures and training tools for skill maintenance and just-in-time training; and enabling rapid crew access to data from all on-board systems, leading to better-informed, real-time, autonomous decisions. Collectively, this approach can be referred to as “Earth Independent Medical Operations” (EIMO). The Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA’s Human Research Program has undertaken a longitudinal planning process to consensus around EIMO. Technical interchange meetings will occur with key constituents in late 2022 and again in early 2023 to define EIMO in practical terms and identify key elements of an EIMO system, with greater conceptual articulation and dissemination planned for the second half of 2023. We will share insights into the strategy for internal and external consensus building around EIMO, with a particular focus on the approach to partner stakeholders within NASA as well as commercial agencies.

Jay Lemery↗

NASA NTRS2018

Low-Latency Teleoperations: Operational Implications for Human Space Exploration

Low-latency teleoperations (LLT) is envisioned to be an element of human exploration missions in a number of different applications. LLT can be broadly considered to encompass any remote operation of an asset with a communication delay that is less than the human response time to allow for what is effectively "real-time" or "near real-time" operations. This paper will explore motivations and operational implications for why and how LLT might be used for human exploration space missions. LLT analyses have been performed under the auspices of the NASA Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) and Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC). The EMC created a flexible, evolvable, capability-driven architectural strategy to enable a sustainable long-term human presence at Mars. LLT is envisioned to be part of that strategy for both in-space and on-surface applications, and this paper will expand on operational considerations within that broader strategic context, as well additional contexts. Some operational implications explored in this paper, derived largely from previous work, are: (1) crew mission support, for which we will address roles for Mission Control on earth, balanced with the capability for crew and robotic assets to operate independently, (2) science operations, with a focus on "backroom" support, highly dynamic science, and enhanced science return and efficiency, and (3) operational efficiency at a deep-space destination such as Mars, including implications for communications infrastructures and how to leverage and balance system autonomy with crew operations, both of which can inform the overall operational "choreography" between crew members, multiple shifts, and exploration assets.

human spaceflight↗

NASA NTRS2003

Pseudo Linear Gyro Calibration

Previous high fidelity onboard attitude algorithms estimated only the spacecraft attitude and gyro bias. The desire to promote spacecraft and ground autonomy and improvements in onboard computing power has spurred development of more sophisticated calibration algorithms. Namely, there is a desire to provide for sensor calibration through calibration parameter estimation onboard the spacecraft as well as autonomous estimation on the ground. Gyro calibration is a particularly challenging area of research. There are a variety of gyro devices available for any prospective mission ranging from inexpensive low fidelity gyros with potentially unstable scale factors to much more expensive extremely stable high fidelity units. Much research has been devoted to designing dedicated estimators such as particular Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithms or Square Root Information Filters. This paper builds upon previous attitude, rate, and specialized gyro parameter estimation work performed with Pseudo Linear Kalman Filter (PSELIKA). The PSELIKA advantage is the use of the standard linear Kalman Filter algorithm. A PSELIKA algorithm for an orthogonal gyro set which includes estimates of attitude, rate, gyro misalignments, gyro scale factors, and gyro bias is developed and tested using simulated and flight data. The measurements PSELIKA uses include gyro and quaternion tracker data.

Harman, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lessons Learned in the Livingstone 2 on Earth Observing One Flight Experiment

The Livingstone 2 (L2) model-based diagnosis software is a reusable diagnostic tool for monitoring complex systems. In 2004, L2 was integrated with the JPL Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) and deployed on-board Goddard's Earth Observing One (EO-1) remote sensing satellite, to monitor and diagnose the EO-1 space science instruments and imaging sequence. This paper reports on lessons learned from this flight experiment. The goals for this experiment, including validation of minimum success criteria and of a series of diagnostic scenarios, have all been successfully net. Long-term operations in space are on-going, as a test of the maturity of the system, with L2 performance remaining flawless. L2 has demonstrated the ability to track the state of the system during nominal operations, detect simulated abnormalities in operations and isolate failures to their root cause fault. Specific advances demonstrated include diagnosis of ambiguity groups rather than a single fault candidate; hypothesis revision given new sensor evidence about the state of the system; and the capability to check for faults in a dynamic system without having to wait until the system is quiescent. The major benefits of this advanced health management technology are to increase mission duration and reliability through intelligent fault protection, and robust autonomous operations with reduced dependency on supervisory operations from Earth. The work-load for operators will be reduced by telemetry of processed state-of-health information rather than raw data. The long-term vision is that of making diagnosis available to the onboard planner or executive, allowing autonomy software to re-plan in order to work around known component failures. For a system that is expected to evolve substantially over its lifetime, as for the International Space Station, the model-based approach has definite advantages over rule-based expert systems and limit-checking fault protection systems, as these do not scale well. The model-based approach facilitates reuse of the L2 diagnostic software; only the model of the system to be diagnosed and telemetry monitoring software has to be rebuilt for a new system or expanded for a growing system. The hierarchical L2 model supports modularity and expendability, and as such is suitable solution for integrated system health management as envisioned for systems-of-systems.

Hayden, Sandra C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗