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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Do We Know How to Model Reionization?

I compare the power spectra of the radiation fields from two recent sets of fully-coupled simulations that model cosmic reionization: “Cosmic Reionization On Computers” (CROC) and “Thesan”. While both simulations have similar power spectra of the radiation sources, the power spectra of the photoionization rate are significantly different at the same values of cosmic time or the same values of the mean neutral hydrogen fraction. However, the power spectra of the photoionization rate can be matched at large scales for the two simulations when the matching snapshots are allowed to vary independently. I.e., on large scales, the clustering of the radiation field in two simulations evolves similarly, but the exact timing of this evolution is different in different simulations and is not parameterized by an easily interpretable physical quantity like the mean neutral fraction or the mean free path. On small scales, large differences are present and remain partially unexplained. Both CROC and Thesan use the Variable Eddington Tensor approximation for modeling radiative transfer, but adopt different closure relations (optically thin OTVET versus M1). The role of this key difference is tested by using smaller simulations with a new cosmological simulation code that implements both closure relations in a controlled environment (the same hydro, cooling, and gravity solvers and the star formation recipe). In these controlled tests, both the M1 closure and the OTVET ansatz follow the expected behavior from a simple analytical approximation, demonstrating that the differences in the 2-point function of the radiation field induced by the choice of the Eddington tensor are not dominant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coincidence Anticipation Timing Responses with Head Tracking and Eye Tracking

Head tracking movements are common in interceptive tasks. The benefits of these movements are unclear. The purpose of this study was to compare coincidence anticipation timing (CAT) responses for a simulated approaching object when the eyes were used in tracking the object and when the head was used in tracking the object.A total of 29 subjects participated. A Bassin Anticipation Timer consisting of a track of sequentially illuminated lights was used to simulate an approaching object at velocities of 223 cm · s -1 to 894 cm · s -1 . Each velocity was used 10 times under 2 conditions. In one condition, subjects were told to turn the eyes with the stimulus. In the other condition, subjects viewed the stimulus through apertures and were told to turn the head with the stimulus. Subjects pushed a button to coincide with illumination of the final light on the track. Signed CAT errors, unsigned CAT errors, and variable CAT errors were compared between the head movement (HM) and eye movement (EM) conditions. No significant differences were noted for the signed errors (mean signed error at 894 cm · s -1 ; 10.3 ± 75.4 ms (HM), -16.1 ± 51.0 ms (EM). However, the unsigned and variable errors were significantly larger at some stimulus velocities in the head movement condition [mean unsigned error at 894 cm · s -1 : 82.6.0 ± 45.9 ms (HM), 59.0 ± 22.4 ms (EM); mean variable error at 894 cm · s -1 ; 78.0 ± 37.8 ms (HM), 49.2 ± 17.1ms (EM)]. DISCUSSION: Head movement did not result in improved CAT performance compared to eye movements. Further work will be required to determine whether these results are generalizable to situations where head tracking is required but apertures are not worn.

Biophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fracture Network Localization Preceding Catastrophic Failure in Triaxial Compression Experiments on Rocks

We quantify the spatial distribution of fracture networks throughout six in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on crystalline rocks at confining stresses of 5–35 MPa in order to quantify how fracture development controls the final macroscopic failure of the rock, a process analogous to those that control geohazards such as earthquakes and landslides. Tracking the proportion of the cumulative volume of fractures with volumes >90th percentile to the total fracture volume, ∑ v 90 / v t o t indicates that the fracture networks tend to increase in localization toward these largest fractures for up to 80% of the applied differential stress. The evolution of this metric also matches the evolution of the Gini coefficient, which measures the deviation of a population from uniformity. These results are consistent with observations of localizing low magnitude seismicity before large earthquakes in southern California. In both this analysis and the present work, phases of delocalization interrupt the general increase in localization preceding catastrophic failure, indicating that delocalization does not necessarily indicate a reduction of seismic hazard. However, the proportion of the maximum fracture volume to the total fracture volume does not increase monotonically. Experiments with higher confining stress tend to experience greater localization. To further quantify localization, we compare the geometry of the largest fractures, with volumes >90th percentile, to the best fit plane through these fractures immediately preceding failure. The r 2 scores and the mean distance of the fractures to the plane indicate greater localization in monzonite than in granite. The smaller mean mineral diameter and lower confining stress in the granite experiments may contribute to this result. Tracking these various metrics of localization reveals a close association between macroscopic yielding and the acceleration of fracture network localization. Near yielding, ∑ v 90 / v t o t and the Gini coefficient increase while the mean distance to the final failure plane decreases. Macroscopic yielding thus occurs when the rate of fracture network localization increases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Computational Theory for the Emergence of Grammatical Categories in Cortical Dynamics

A general agreement in psycholinguistics claims that syntax and meaning are unified precisely and very quickly during online sentence processing. Although several theories have advanced arguments regarding the neurocomputational bases of this phenomenon, we argue that these theories could potentially benefit by including neurophysiological data concerning cortical dynamics constraints in brain tissue. In addition, some theories promote the integration of complex optimization methods in neural tissue. In this paper we attempt to fill these gaps introducing a computational model inspired in the dynamics of cortical tissue. In our modeling approach, proximal afferent dendrites produce stochastic cellular activations, while distal dendritic branches–on the other hand–contribute independently to somatic depolarization by means of dendritic spikes, and finally, prediction failures produce massive firing events preventing formation of sparse distributed representations. The model presented in this paper combines semantic and coarse-grained syntactic constraints for each word in a sentence context until grammatically related word function discrimination emerges spontaneously by the sole correlation of lexical information from different sources without applying complex optimization methods. By means of support vector machine techniques, we show that the sparse activation features returned by our approach are well suited—bootstrapping from the features returned by Word Embedding mechanisms—to accomplish grammatical function classification of individual words in a sentence. In this way we develop a biologically guided computational explanation for linguistically relevant unification processes in cortex which connects psycholinguistics to neurobiological accounts of language. We also claim that the computational hypotheses established in this research could foster future work on biologically-inspired learning algorithms for natural language processing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of venous and pooled capillary hemoglobin levels for the detection of anemia among adolescent girls

Introduction: Blood source is a known preanalytical factor affecting hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, and there is evidence that capillary and venous blood may yield disparate Hb levels and anemia prevalence. However, data from adolescents are scarce. Objective: To compare Hb and anemia prevalence measured by venous and individual pooled capillary blood among a sample of girls aged 10–19 years from 232 schools in four regions of Ghana in 2022. Methods: Among girls who had venous blood draws, a random subsample was selected for capillary blood. Hb was measured using HemoCue® Hb-301. We used Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify the strength of the bivariate relationship between venous and capillary Hb and a paired t-test for difference in means. We used McNemar’s test for discordance in anemia cases by blood source and weighted Kappa to quantify agreement by anemia severity. A multivariate generalized estimating equation was used to quantify adjusted population anemia prevalence and assess the association between blood source and predicted anemia risk. Results: We found strong concordance between Hb measures (CCC = 0.86). The difference between mean venous Hb (12.8 g/dL, ± 1.1) and capillary Hb (12.9 g/dL, ± 1.2) was not significant (p = 0.26). Crude anemia prevalence by venous and capillary blood was 20.6% and 19.5%, respectively. Adjusted population anemia prevalence was 23.5% for venous blood and 22.5% for capillary ( = 0.45). Blood source was not associated with predicted anemia risk (risk ratio: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.02). Discordance in anemia cases by blood source was not significant (McNemar p = 0.46). Weighted Kappa demonstrated moderate agreement by severity (k =0.67). Among those with anemia by either blood source (n = 111), 59% were identified by both sources. Conclusion: In Ghanaian adolescent girls, there was no difference in mean Hb, anemia prevalence, or predicted anemia risk by blood source. However, only 59% of girls with anemia by either blood source were identified as having anemia by both sources. These findings suggest that pooled capillary blood may be useful for estimating Hb and anemia at the population level, but that caution is needed when interpreting individual-level data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parametric model-order-reduction development for unsteady convection

A time-averaged error indicator with POD- h Greedy is developed to drive parametric model order reduction (pMOR) for 2D unsteady natural convection in a high-aspect ratio slot parameterized with the Prandtl number, Rayleigh number, and slot angle with respect to the gravity. The error indicator is extended to accommodate the energy equation and Leray regularization. Despite being two-dimensional and laminar, the target flow regime presents several challenges: 1) there is a bifurcation in the angle parameter space; 2) the solution can be multivalued, even at steady state; and 3) the solution exhibits spatio-temporal chaos at several points in the parameter space. The authors explore several reduced-order models (ROMs) and demonstrate that Leray-regularized Galerkin ROMs provide a robust solution approach for this class of flows. They further demonstrate that error-indicated pMOR can efficiently predict several QOIs, such as mean flow, mean Nusselt number and mean turbulent kinetic energy, even in the presence of a bifurcation. Finally, they show that spatio-temporal chaos can lead to lack of reproducibility in both the full-order model and the reduced-order model and that the variance in the full-order model provides a lower bound on the pMOR error in these cases.

leray regularization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-qubit multi-party transmission using universal symmetric quantum cloning

This study considers the hypothetical quantum network case where Alice wishes to transmit one qubit of information (specifically a pure quantum state) to M parties, where M is some large number. The remote receivers locally perform single-qubit quantum state tomography on the transmitted qubits in order to compute the quantum state within some error rate (dependent on the tomography technique and the number of transmitted qubits). We show that with the use of an intermediate optimal symmetric universal quantum cloning machine (between Alice and the remote receivers) as a repeater-type node in a hypothetical quantum network, Alice can send significantly fewer qubits compared to direct transmission of the message qubits to each of the M remote receivers. This is possible due to two properties of quantum cloning. The first is that single qubit quantum clones retain the same Bloch angle as the initial quantum state. This means that if the mixed state of the quantum clone can be computed to high enough accuracy, the original pure quantum state can be inferred by extrapolating that vector to the surface of the Bloch sphere. The second property is that the state overlap of approximate quantum clones, with respect to the original pure quantum state, quickly converges (specifically for 1 → M , the limit of the fidelity as M goes to infinity is $\frac{2}{3}$). This means that Alice can prepare a constant number of qubits (which are then passed through the quantum cloning machine) in order to achieve a desired error rate if M is large enough. Combined, these two properties mean that for a large M , Alice can prepare many orders of magnitude fewer qubits in order to achieve the same single qubit transmission accuracy compared to the naive direct qubit transmission approach.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mind-the-gap - Part III: Doppler velocity measurements from space

Convective motions and hydrometeors microphysical properties are highly sought-after parameters for evaluating atmospheric numerical models. With most of the Earth's surface covered by water, space-borne Doppler radars are ideal for acquiring such measurements at a global scale. While these systems have proven to be useful tools for retrieving cloud microphysical and dynamical properties from the ground, their adequacy, and specific requirements for spaceborne operation still need to be evaluated. Comprehensive forward simulations enable us to assess the advantages and drawbacks of six different Doppler radar architectures currently planned or under consideration by space agencies for the study of cloud dynamics. Radar performance is examined against state-of-the-art numerical model simulations of well-characterized shallow and deep, continental, and oceanic convective cases. Mean Doppler velocity (MDV) measurements collected at multiple frequencies (13, 35 and 94 GHz) provide complementary information in deep convective cloud systems. The high penetration capability of the 13-GHz radar enables to obtain a complete, albeit horizontally under-sampled, view of deep convective storms. The smaller instantaneous field of view (IFOV) of the 35-GHz radar captures more precise information about the location and size of convective updrafts above 5-8 km height of most systems which was determined is the portion of storms where the mass flux peak is typically located. Finally, the lower mean Doppler velocity uncertainty of displaced phase center antenna (DPCA) radars makes them an ideal system for studying microphysics in shallow convection and frontal systems, as well as ice and mixed-phase clouds. It is demonstrated that a 94-GHz DCPA system can achieve retrieval errors as low as 0.05-0.15 mm for raindrop volume-weighted mean diameter and 25% for rime fraction (for a -10 dBZ echo).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Homogenization of Elastic and Fracture Properties of a Sample Selective Laser Melting Material

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing technique commonly used in the rapid prototyping of components. The complexity of the SLM microstructure poses a unique challenge to deriving effective mechanical properties at different length scales. Representative volume elements (RVEs) are often used to homogenize the material properties of composites. Instead of RVEs, we use statistical volume elements (SVEs) to homogenize the elastic and fracture properties of the material. This relates the inherent variation of a material’s microstructure to the variation in its mechanical properties at different observation scales. The convergence to the RVE limit is examined from two perspectives: the stability of the mean value as the SVE size increases for the mean-based approach, and the tendency of the normalized variation in homogenized properties to zero as the SVE size increases for the variation-based approach. Fracture properties tend to make the RVE limit slower than do elastic properties from both perspectives. There are also differences between vertical (normal to printing plane) and horizontal (in-plane) properties. While the elastic properties tend to make the RVE limit faster for the horizontal direction, i.e., having a smaller variation and more stable mean value, the fracture properties exhibit the opposite effect. We attributed these differences to the geometry of the melt pools.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Comparison of Object Detection Networks for Shrapnel Identification in Ultrasound Images

Ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for triaging and diagnosing subjects but only if images can be properly interpreted. Unfortunately, in remote or military medicine situations, the expertise to interpret images can be lacking. Machine-learning image interpretation models that are explainable to the end user and deployable in real time with ultrasound equipment have the potential to solve this problem. We have previously shown how a YOLOv3 (You Only Look Once) object detection algorithm can be used for tracking shrapnel, artery, vein, and nerve fiber bundle features in a tissue phantom. However, real-time implementation of an object detection model requires optimizing model inference time. Here, we compare the performance of five different object detection deep-learning models with varying architectures and trainable parameters to determine which model is most suitable for this shrapnel-tracking ultrasound image application. We used a dataset of more than 16,000 ultrasound images from gelatin tissue phantoms containing artery, vein, nerve fiber, and shrapnel features for training and evaluating each model. Every object detection model surpassed 0.85 mean average precision except for the detection transformer model. Overall, the YOLOv7tiny model had the higher mean average precision and quickest inference time, making it the obvious model choice for this ultrasound imaging application. Other object detection models were overfitting the data as was determined by lower testing performance compared with higher training performance. In summary, the YOLOv7tiny object detection model had the best mean average precision and inference time and was selected as optimal for this application. Next steps will implement this object detection algorithm for real-time applications, an important next step in translating AI models for emergency and military medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainty in Microstructure Evolution and Constitutive Properties in Additive Process Modeling

Coupled process–microstructure–property modeling, and understanding the sources of uncertainty and their propagation toward error in part property prediction, are key steps toward full utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) for predictable quality part development. The OpenFOAM model for process conditions, the ExaCA model for as-solidified grain structure, and the ExaConstit model for constitutive mechanical properties are used as part of the ExaAM modeling framework to examine a few of the various sources of uncertainty in the modeling workflow. In addition to “random” uncertainty (due to random number generation in the orientations and locations of grains present), the heterogeneous nucleation density N 0 and the mean substrate grain spacing S 0 are varied to examine their impact of grain area development as a function of build height in the simulated microstructure. While mean grain area after 1 mm of build is found to be sensitive to N 0 and S 0 , particularly at small N 0 and large S 0 (despite some convergence toward similar values), the resulting grain shapes and overall textures develop in a reasonably similar manner. As a result of these similar textures, ExaConstit simulation using ExaCA representative volume elements (RVEs) from various permutations of N 0 , S 0 , and location within the build resulted in similar yield stress, stress–strain curve shape, and stress triaxiality distributions. It is concluded that for this particular material and scan pattern, 15 layers is sufficient for ExaCA texture and ExaConstit predicted properties to become relatively independent of additional layer simulation, provided that reasonable estimates for N 0 and S 0 are used. However, additional layers of ExaCA will need to be run to obtain mean grain areas independent of build height and baseplate structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Dynamics of Interstellar Asteroids and Comets within the Galaxy: An Assessment of Local Candidate Source Regions for 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov

The low velocity of interstellar asteroid 1I/’Oumuamua with respect to our galaxy’s local standard of rest implies that it is young. Adopting the young age hypothesis, we assess possible origin systems for this interstellar asteroid and for 2I/Borisov, though the latter’s higher speed means it is unlikely to be young. First, their past trajectories are modeled under gravitational scattering by galactic components (“disk heating”) to assess how far back one can trace them. The stochastic nature of disk heating means that a back integration can only expect to be accurate to within 15 pc and 2 km s{sup −1} at −10 Myr, dropping steeply to 400 pc and 10 km s{sup −1} at −100 Myr, sharply limiting our ability to determine a precise origin. Nevertheless, we show that ’Oumuamua’s origin system likely is currently within 1 kpc of Earth, in the local Orion Arm. Second, we back integrate ’Oumuamua’s trajectory in order to assess source regions, emphasizing young systems and moving groups. Though disk heating allows for only a statistical link to source regions, ’Oumuamua passed through a considerable subset of the Carina and Columba moving groups when those groups were forming. This makes them perhaps the most plausible source region, if ’Oumuamua was ejected during planet formation or via intra-cluster interactions. We find three stars in the Ursa Major group, one brown dwarf, and seven other stars to have plausible encounters with 2I/Borisov, within 2 pc and 30 km s{sup −1}. These encounters’ high relative speeds mean none are likely to be the home of 2I/Borisov.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

PSF–NET: A Nonparametric Point-spread Function Model for Ground-based Optical Telescopes

Ground-based optical telescopes are seriously affected by atmospheric turbulence induced aberrations. Understanding properties of these aberrations is important both for instrument design and image restoration method development. Because the point-spread function can reflect performance of the whole optic system, it is appropriate to use the point-spread function to describe atmospheric turbulence induced aberrations. Assuming point-spread functions induced by the atmospheric turbulence with the same profile belong to the same manifold space, we propose a nonparametric point-spread function—PSF–NET. The PSF–NET has a cycle convolutional neural network structure and is a statistical representation of the manifold space of PSFs induced by the atmospheric turbulence with the same profile. Testing the PSF–NET with simulated and real observation data, we find that a well trained PSF–NET can restore any short exposure images blurred by atmospheric turbulence with the same profile. Besides, we further use the impulse response of the PSF–NET, which can be viewed as the statistical mean PSF, to analyze interpretation properties of the PSF–NET. We find that variations of statistical mean PSFs are caused by variations of the atmospheric turbulence profile: as the difference of the atmospheric turbulence profile increases, the difference between statistical mean PSFs also increases. The PSF–NET proposed in this paper provides a new way to analyze atmospheric turbulence induced aberrations, which would benefit the development of new observation methods for ground-based optical telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗