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NASA NTRS1994

Electron acceleration at nearly perpendicular collisionless shocks. 3: Downstream distributions

Spacecraft observations at the Earth's bow shock and at interplanetary shocks have established that the largest fluxes of accelerated suprathermal electrons occur in so-called shock spike events immediately downstream of the shock ramp. Previous theoretical efforts have mainly focused on explaining upstream energetic electron beams. Here we investigate the general motion and acceleration of energetic electrons in a curved, nearly perpendicular shock by numerically integrating the orbits of solar wind halo electrons in shock fields generated by a hybrid simulation (core electron fluid and kinetic ions). Close to the angle Theta(sub Bn) = 90 degs between the upstream magnetic field and shock normal, the calculations result in a (perpendicular) temperature increase proportional to the magnetic field ratio and give the highest phase space densities in the overshoot. For a steep distribution, the temperature change can correspond to an enhancement of the distribution by several orders of magnitude. These results are in agreement with predictions from adiabatic mapping. With smaller angles Theta(sub Bn), the overshoot and downstream densities fall off quickly, because the adiabatic energy gain is less and fewer electrons transmit. The shock curvature also leads to an accumulation of electrons close to 90 degs. Without pitch angle scattering, energization is only significant within a few (approximately 5 to 10 degs) degrees of the point of tangency. However, shock spike events appear to be observed more easily and farther away from 90 degs. Given that over a region of several degrees around 90 degs the theory gives enhancements of up to approximately 4 orders of magnitude, such electrons could in principle account for the typically observed enhancements of 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, if they were distributed over Theta(sub Bn). To test the idea that scattering could efficiently redistribute the energetic electrons, we have conducted test particle simulations in which artificial pitch angle scattering is included. We find that such a process can indeed be very efficient and can explain observations of shock spike events far away from Theta(sub Bn) is approximately 90 degs. The scattering naturally leads to much higher phase space densities at smaller Theta(sub Bn) than what a local one-dimensional mapping would predict and thus can account for an observed discrepancy with adiabatic theory stated in the literature.

Krauss-Varban, D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Star counts from the HST Snapshot Survey. 2: Wide binaries

We report on a study of the first sample of wide binaries whose members are primarily in the old component of the Galactic disk. The binaries were discovered in 446 fields imaged with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Planetary Camera to an average magnitude limit of V = 2.13, as part of the Snapshot Survey for gravitational lenses. Most of the fields are at moderate to high Galactic latitude. Their total area is 0.15 deg squared. Because of the relatively faint magnitude limit, the observations are sensitive primarily to binaries in the old disk with heights above the Galactic plane of 500-1500 pc, absolute magnitudes of M(sub v) = 6-11, and physical separations of 130-4000 AU. By contrast, most previous surveys have been sensitive to binaries composed of earlier-type stars lying closer to the plane, that is, to a younger population. We find that 4% of the disk stars in the Snapshot sample have fainter companions within 1.5 mag, and separations in the range 0.13 sec is less than theta which is less than 4.0 sec. The distribution of angular separations can be fitted to a power law F(theta) is proportional to theta(exp -l), where l = 1.2 +/- 0.4, in agreement with most previous studies. The binaries in the Snapshot sample have bluer colors than would be expected for random pairs of field stars.

Gould, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1995

Discovery of candidate cataclysmic variables in the post-core-collapse globular cluster NGC 6397

A photometric search for objects with H alpha emission in the globular cluster NGC 6397 has been carried out with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Planetary Camera. Images were obtained through the F675W (similar to Johnson R) and F656N (H alpha) filters, and photometry carried out on approximately 900 stars detected in the central approximately 38 x 35 arcseconds of the cluster. Limiting magnitudes of R approximately 21 and 19.5 were reached in the F675W and F656N images, respectively. Three H alpha-bright stars are found which have apparent magnitudes in the range R = 17.8-19.5. The corresponding absolute magnitudes (M(sub R) = 5.6-7.3) and inferred H alpha emission-line strengths (EW(H alpha) greater than or approximately equal to 15-26 A) make these objects good candidates to be cataclysmic variables (CVs) in this nearby, post-collapse cluster. All three H alpha-bright objects are found to be UV-bright in a photometric comparison of the F675W images with archival HST Faint Object Camera (FOC) images of the cluster center through the F220W and F346M filters. Such UV excesses further support the identification of these objects as candidates to be CVs in the cluster. The H alpha-bright stars are within the error circles of three X-ray sources previously found with the ROSAT High Resoltion Imager (HRI) and are likley to be the dominant source of the X-ray emission. The implied X-Ray to optical flux ratios (f(sub x)/f(sub v) approximately 0.8-4.2) are consistent with CVs known elsewhere in the Galaxy. Two additional stars with possible H alpha emission are also discussed, along the stars identified on the basis of UV emisssion. Preliminary completeness estimates suggest that these observations should be sensitive to approximately one-third to two-thirds of most varieties of CVs in the cluster, and that therefore greater than or approximately 5-10 CVs are likely to be present in the observed section of NGC 6397. Scaling these numbers to the cluster as a whole would increase these numbers by up to a factor of 2. A total CV population on the order of 5-20 is in reasonable with previous estimates made on the basis of X-ray observations, and with theoretical predictions scaled to this cluster.

Cool, Adrienne M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A test of galaxy evolutionary models via angular sizes

The relationship between angular size, magnitude, and redshift of faint galaxies is explored as a potential tool to distinguish between galaxy evolutionary models. Different models, based on merging, mild luminosity evolution, and no evolution, lead to different predictions of the angular size distribution, redshift- size relation, and magnitude-size relation. The merging model predicts significantly smaller sizes for faint galaxies than the standard model, because of the requirement for more intrinsically small faint objects at high redshift. A dwarf-rich no-evolution model also predicts small sizes for faint galaxies. The mild luminosity evolution model predicts more luminous galaxies of large angular size at high redshift, as does a standard no-evolution model. Prefurbishment Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Medium Deep Survey observations of magnitudes and sizes of faint galaxies indicate an excess of small versus large faint galaxies, favoring the dwarf rich, no evolution model with respect to the merging model; the other two models are more discrepant with the data. While these results cannot yet rule out with certainty any of the proposed models, they demonstrate the potential of angular size to discriminate between models of galaxy evolution, especially with the high-resolution HST wide field/planetary camera-2 (WFPC2) data.

Im, Myungshin↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of downward moving O(+) in the polar topside ionosphere

New investigations of the core ion motion within high-latitude topside ionosphere and near-Earth magnetosphere, using data from the Dynamics Explorer (DE) retarding ion mass spectrometer (RIMS), reveal the existence of significant regions of downward moving O(+). The occurences of downgoing versus upgoing O(+) are not clearly separable in terms of either polar zenith angle or Kp but are well distinquished by the direction of the z component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). On the average, down flow dominates when IMFB2 less than O, while upflow dominates for IMFB2 greater than 0. Combining cross-field convection velocities derived from an empirical convection electric field model with the observed parallel velocities yields a two dimensional ion velocity field. This velocity field is consistent with a senario which has O(+) of cusp/cleft and auroral zone origin concvecting into the polar cap and, because of the dominance of gravitational energy over the upward kinetic energy, falling back into the inonsphere. This provides additional confirmation of the results of studies of the cleft ion fountain. Estimates of the flux of O(+) in the upflowing and downflowing regions for Lambda greater than or equal to 60 deg give a total upflow of approximately 6 X 10(exp 25) ions/sec for IMFB2 greater than 0 and total upflow and downflow of approximately 4 X 10 (exp 25) ions/sec and 1 x 10(exp 25) ions/sec, respectively, for IMFB less than 0. In all cases the magnitude of the dayside outflow is consistent with previous work on upwelling ions. While the magnitudes vary for high and low Kp the ratios of upward to downward flow are roughly the same at approximately 1.7. The downflowing O(+) shows a correlation with the magnitude of the outflow of light ions in the same region but the cause and effect of this relationship is not distinquishable. hable.

Chandler, M. O.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The occultation of SAO 78505 by Jupiter

On 13 December 1989, Jupiter occulted a star with visual magnitude 8.7 and an estimated K magnitude of 7. We observed the event from Kitt Peak, Arizona, using a 64 x 64 infrared camera at a wavelength of 2.16 microns. The resulting data on refractive defocusing of the stellar signal give information on the temperature of the jovian atmosphere at pressures approximately 2 to 10 microbar, at near-equatorial latitudes. These are the first new stellar-occulation data for the high jovian atmosphere since the widely observed occulation of beta Sco A and C in 1971. Because of improvements in instrumental capability, our data are comparable to the best beta Sco A data though the star is six magnitudes fainter. We derive a mean atmospheric temperature of 176 +/- 12 K on a level surface corresponding to an equatorial radius of 71,880 km and a pressure of 1.8 microbar at a jovi- centric latitude of 8 deg. This result complements the beta Sco results by providing improved precision at low jovicentric latitudes where the fainter star beta Sco C was used in 1971.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Hubble space telescope observations of young star clusters in NGC-4038/4039, 'the antennae' galaxies

New, high-resolution images of the disks of NGC 4038/4039 obtained with the Wide Field Camera of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) are presented. NGC 4038/4039, nicknamed The Antennae, is a prototypical example of a pair of colliding galaxies believed to be at an early stage of a merger. Down to the limiting magnitude of V approximately 23 mag, the HST images reveal a population of over 700 blue pointlike objects within the disks. The mean absolute magnitude of these objects is M(sub V) = -11 mag, with the brightest objects reaching M(sub V) approximately -15. Their mean apparent color indices ar U - V = -0.7 mag and V - 1 = 0.8 mag on the Johnson UVI passband system, while their mean indices corrected for internal reddening are (u - v)(sub 0) = -1.0 mag and (V - I(sub 0) = 0.5. Their mean effective radius, determined from slightly resolved images, is 18 pc (for H(sub 0) = 50 km/s /Mpc). Based on their luminosities and resolution, most of these objects cannot be individual stars, but are likely young compact star clusters. The brighter ones are similar to the objects found in NGC 1275 and NGC 7252, which appear to be young globular clusters formed during recent galazy mergers. Based on their U - V and V - I colors, the brightest, bluest clusters of NGC 4038/4039 appear to be less than 10 Myr old. Most of these bright clusters are relatively tightly clustered themselves, with typically a dozen individual clusters belonging to a complex identified as a giant H II region from ground-based observations. The cluster luminosity function (LF) is approximately a power law, phi(L)dL proportional to L(exp -1.78+/-0.05)dL, with no hint of a turnover at fainter magnitudes. This power-law shape agrees with the LF of Magellanic Cloud clusters and Galactic open clusters, but differs from the LF of old globular cluster systems that is typically Gaussian with a Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) of approximately 3 mag. Besides the blue clusters, we also find about a dozen extremely red objects with V - I greater than 3.0. The highest number density of these red objects is found in the SE quadrant, where star formation appears to be most recent. We propose that these objects may be very young star clusters still embedded in their placental dust cocoons.

Whitmore, Bradley C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Fizeau optical interferometer astrometric satellite

The proposed design and construction of the Fizeau astrometric mapping explorer (FAME), a small astrometric instrument for use on an artificial satellite, is reported on. The instrument and spacecraft are designed to slowly spin and will repeatedly scan great circles on the sky so that, over a period of time, it will cover the complete sky and repeat in a manner similar to that of the Hipparcos satellite. The instrument will use the two fixed dilute aperture telescopes to measure a fixed angle between stars and detect the positions, magnitude and color of all stars crossing its field of view to a visual magnitude of approximately 15 mag. The aim of the instrument is to obtain a catalog of positions, proper motions and parallaxes of all stars down to about 15 mag, with a magnitude dependent accuracy of positions of 20 to 800 micro arcsec, proper motions of 20 to 800 micro arcsec per year and parallaxes of 20 to 800 micro arcsec.

Seidelmann, P. Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1995

Response of the upper atmosphere to variations in the solar soft x-ray irradiance

Terrestrial far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow emissions have been suggested as a means for remote sensing the structure of the upper atmosphere. The energy which leads to the excitation of FUV airglow emissions is solar irradiance at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft x-ray wavelengths. Solar irradiance at these wavelengths is known to be highly variable; studies of nitric oxide (NO) in the lower thermosphere have suggested a variability of more than an order of magnitude in the solar soft x-ray irradiance. To properly interpret the FUV airflow, the magnitude of the solar energy deposition must be known. Previous analyses have used the electron impact excited Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands of N2 to infer the flux of photoelectrons in the atmosphere and thus to infer the magnitude of the solar irradiance. This dissertation presents the first simultaneous measurements of the FUV airglow, the major atmospheric constituent densities, and the solar EUV and soft x-ray irradiances. The measurements were made on three flights of an identical sounding rocket payload at different levels of solar activity. The linear response in brightness of the LBH bands to variations in solar irradiance is demonstrated. In addition to the N2 LBH bands, atomic oxygen lines at 135.6 and 130.4 nm are also studied. Unlike the LBH bands, these emissions undergo radiative transfer effects in the atmosphere. The OI emission at 135.6 nm is found to be well modeled using a radiative transfer calculation and the known excitation processes. Unfortunately, the assumed processes leading to OI 130.4 nm excitation are found to be insufficient to reproduce the observed variability of this emission. Production of NO in the atmosphere is examined; it is shown that a lower than previously reported variability in the solar soft x-ray irradiance is required to explain the variability of NO.

Bailey, Scott Martin↗

NASA NTRS1995

The observed North-South Asymmetry of IMF spiral

We appraise the finding, reported in the literature, that a small but finite north-south asymmetry (NSA) exists in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) spiral at Earth's orbit. We have analyzed the data available on the Omnitape for the 1963 to 1993 period. The coverage is very uneven, ranging from less than 40% to greater than 80%. The magnitude of NSA fluctuates considerably during the period of our analysis. This is true even if one considers the period 1967 to 1982 when the coverage is greater than 50%. The values of NSA derived from 27-day averages of the hourly data points range from greater than +50 deg to less than -40 deg. If one arranges the data according to the magnetic polarity epochs of the solar polar field, the epoch averages gives the magnitude of NSA less than approximately 2 deg. This is also true, if one considers the average magnitude of NSA for the 1965 to 1993 period, when the coverage is greater than 25%. A genuine, persistent, NSA of IMF spiral is likely to affect the cosmic ray modulation, on either side of the current sheet, by introducing a corresponding change in the radial diffusion coefficient of energetic particle transport in the heliosphere. The annual mean values of the observed NSA of IMF spiral are compared with the observed off-ecliptic contributions to cosmic ray modulation.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Water Surface Currents, Short Gravity-Capillary Waves and Radar Backscatter

Despite their importance for air-sea interaction and microwave remote sensing of the ocean surface, intrinsic properties of short gravity-capillary waves are not well established. This is largely due to water surface currents and their effects on the direct measurements of wave parameters conducted at a fixed point. Frequencies of small scale waves propagating on a surface which itself is in motion, are subject to Doppler shifts. Hence, the high frequency tail of the wave spectra obtained from such temporal observations is smeared. Conversion of this smeared measured-frequency spectra to intrinsic-frequency (or wavenumber) spectra requires corrections for the Doppler shifts. Such attempts in the past have not been very successful in particular when field data were used. This becomes evident if the amplitude modulation of short waves by underlying long waves is considered. Microwave radar studies show that the amplitude of a short wave component attains its maximum value near the crests and its minimum in the troughs of the long waves. Doppler-shifted wave data yield similar results but much larger in modulation magnitude, as expected. In general, Doppler shift corrections reduce the modulation magnitude. Overcorrection may result in a negligible modulation or even in a strong modulation with the maximum amplitude in the wave troughs. The latter situation is clearly contradictory to our visual observations as well as the radar results and imply that the advection by currents is overestimated. In this study, a differential-advection approach is used in which small scale waves are advected by the currents evaluated not at the free surface, but at a depth proportional to their wavelengths. Applicability of this approach is verified by the excellent agreement in phase and magnitude of short-wave modulation between results based on radar and on wave-gauge measurements conducted on a lake.

Atakturk, Serhad S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparison Tools for Assessing the Microgravity Environment of Missions, Carriers and Conditions

The Principal Component Spectral Analysis and the Quasi-steady Three-dimensional Histogram techniques provide the means to describe the microgravity acceleration environment of an entire mission on a single plot. This allows a straight forward comparison of the microgravity environment between missions, carriers, and conditions. As shown in this report, the PCSA and QTH techniques bring both the range and median of the microgravity environment onto a single page for an entire mission or another time period or condition of interest. These single pages may then be used to compare similar analyses of other missions, time periods or conditions. The PCSA plot is based on the frequency distribution of the vibrational energy and is normally used for an acceleration data set containing frequencies above the lowest natural frequencies of the vehicle. The QTH plot is based on the direction and magnitude of the acceleration and is normally used for acceleration data sets with frequency content less than 0.1 Hz. Various operating conditions are made evident by using PCSA and QTH plots. Equipment operating either full or part time with sufficient magnitude to be considered a disturbance is very evident as well as equipment contributing to the background acceleration environment. A source's magnitude and/or frequency variability is also evident by the source's appearance on a PCSA plot. The PCSA and QTH techniques are valuable tools for extracting useful information from acceleration data taken over large spans of time. This report shows that these techniques provide a tool for comparison between different sets of microgravity acceleration data, for example different missions, different activities within a mission, and/or different attitudes within a mission. These techniques, as well as others, may be employed in order to derive useful information from acceleration data.

DeLombard, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1992

Effects of Centrifuge Diameter and Operation on Rodent Adaptation to Chronic Centrifugation

This study examined the responses of rats to centrifugation in a constant acceleration field (1.5 G). Centrifuge diameter (1.8m, 2.5m or 6.0m) and schedule of operation (Daily or weekly stop) varied between groups. Body mass, food consumption, water consumption and neurovestibular function were measured weekly. Body temperature and activity were continuously monitored using telemetry. A subset of subjects were videotaped (50 minutes per day) to allow for movement analysis. Exposure to a hyperdynamic field of this magnitude did cause the expected depression in the physiological variables monitored. Recovery was accomplished within a relatively rapid time frame; all variables returned to precentrifugation levels. In general, the magnitudes of the changes and the rate of recovery were similar at different centrifuge diameters and stopping frequency. There were cases, however, in which the magnitude of the response and/or the rate of recovery to a new steady-state were altered as a result of centrifuge diameter. In summary, these results indicate that stopping frequency has little, if any, effect on adaptation to chronic centrifugation. However, the angular velocity (omega), and therefore centrifuge diameter is an important consideration in the adaptation of an organism to chronic centrifugation.

Fuller, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Charging of Composites in the Space Environment

Deep dielectric charging and subsequent electrostatic discharge in composite materials used on spacecraft have become greater concerns since composite materials are being used more extensively as main structural components. Deep dielectric charging occurs when high energy particles penetrate and deposit themselves in the insulating material of spacecraft components. These deposited particles induce an electric field in the material, which causes the particles to move and thus changes the electric field. The electric field continues to change until a steady state is reached between the incoming particles from the space environment and the particles moving away due to the electric field. An electrostatic discharge occurs when the electric field is greater than the dielectric strength of the composite material. The goal of the current investigation is to investigate deep dielectric charging in composite materials and ascertain what modifications have to be made to the composite properties to alleviate any breakdown issues. A 1-D model was created. The space environment, which is calculated using the Environmental Workbench software, the composite material properties, and the electric field and voltage boundary conditions are input into the model. The output from the model is the charge density, electric field, and voltage distributions as functions of the depth into the material and time. Analysis using the model show that there should be no deep dielectric charging problem with conductive composites such as carbon fiber/epoxy. With insulating materials such as glass fiber/epoxy, Kevlar, and polymers, there is also no concern of deep dielectric charging problems with average day-to-day particle fluxes. However, problems can arise during geomagnetic substorms and solar particle events where particle flux levels increase by several orders of magnitude, and thus increase the electric field in the material by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the second part of this investigation was an experimental attempt to measure the continuum electrical properties of a carbon fiber/epoxy composite, and to create a composite with tailorable conductivity without affecting its mechanical properties. The measurement of the conductivity and dielectric strength of carbon fiber/epoxy composites showed that these properties are surface layer dominated and difficult to measure. In the second experimental task, the conductivity of a glass fiber/epoxy composite was increased by 3 orders of magnitude, dielectric constant was increased approximately by a factor of 16, with minimal change to the mechanical properties, by adding conductive carbon black to the epoxy.

Czepiela, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Effects of Centrifuge Diameter and Operation on Rodent Adaptation to Chronic Centrifugation

Fuller, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Numerical Modeling of Solidification in Space With MEPHISTO-4

A pre-flight analysis of the directional solidification of BiSn with MEPHISTO-4 is presented. Simplified Bridgman growth under microgravity conditions is simulated using a two dimensional finite element model. This numerical model is a single domain, pseudo-steady state model, and includes the effects of both thermal and solutal convection. The results show that for all orientations of the applied steady state gravity vector, of magnitude 1 micro-g, the directional solidification process remains diffusion controlled. The maximum convective velocity was found to be 4.424 x 10(exp -5) cm/s for the horizontal Bridgman growth configuration. This value is an order of magnitude lower than the growth velocity. The maximum and minimum values or solute concentration in the liquid at the crystal-melt interface were 13.867 at.% and 13.722 at.%, respectively. This gives a radial segregation value of xi = 1.046% at the interface. A secondary objective of this work was to compare the results obtained to those that consider thermal convection only (no solutal convection). It was found that the convective flow patterns in simulations which included solutal convection were significantly different from those which ignored solutal convection. The level of radial segregation predicted by the current simulations is an order of magnitude lower than that found in simulations which ignore solutal convection. The final aim was to investigate the effect of g-jitter on the crystal growth process. A simulation was performed to calculate the system response to a 1 second, 100 micro-g gravity impulse acting normal to the direction of growth. This pulse is consistent with that induced by Orbiter thruster firings. The results obtained indicate that such a gravity pulse causes an increase in the level of radial solute segregation at the interface from the steady state values. The maximum value of solute concentration in the liquid was found to be 13.888 at.%, the minimum value calculated was 13.706 at.%, yielding a radial segregation value of xi = 1.31% at the interface. These values occurred 126 seconds after the pulse terminated. Thus it is anticipated that the process will remain diffusion controlled even when subjected to such g-jitter.

Simpson, James E.↗

NASA NTRS1959

An Analysis of Flight-Test Measurements of the Wing Structural Deformations in Rough Air of a Large Flexible Swept-Wing Airplane

An analysis is made of wing deflection and streamwise twist measurements in rough-air flight of a large flexible swept-wing bomber. Random-process techniques are employed in analyzing the data in order to describe the magnitude and characteristics of the wing deflection and twist responses to rough air. Power spectra and frequency-response functions for the wing deflection and twist responses at several spanwise stations are presented. The frequency-response functions describe direct and absolute response characteristics to turbulence and provide a convenient basis for assessing analytic calculation techniques. The wing deformations in rough air are compared with the expected deformations for quasi-static loadings of the same magnitude, and the amplifications are determined. The results obtained indicate that generally the deflections are amplified by a small amount, while the streamwise twists are amplified by factors of the order of 2.0. The magnitudes of both the deflection velocities and the twist angles are shown to have significant effects on the local angles of attack at the various stations and provide the main source of aerodynamic loading, particularly at frequencies in the vicinity of the first wing-vibration mode.

Murrow, Harold N.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Estimates of Leonid Storm Probabilities and Fluxes from Historical Information

We have analyzed accounts of Leonid storms and showers occurring near the 33 year resonance to derive probabilities of the occurrence of Leonid storms as a function of time since comet nodal passage and distance to the orbit of the particle stream. Based on this analysis, we have obtained the following storm probabilities for the coming apparition: 1997 - 33%, 1998 - 60%, 1999 - 100%, and 2000 - 25%. 95% confidence bands are also computed for these years. An expression for the Leonid storm flux is derived using a simple velocity-corrected ZHR scaling to the sporadic flux, which is then compared to that obtained from observations of the 1966 Leonid storm. The two results agree to within a factor of five, provided the Kessler meteor mass-magnitude relation is used. If the Jenniskens mass-magnitude relation is adopted, then the results are more disparate, disagreeing by a full order of magnitude. From the standpoint of spacecraft risk, it would make sense to choose the more conservative of the two relations, so the expression for the Leonid storm flux is F(sub storm) = 3x 10(exp 19) ZHR m(exp -1.3), where m, the meteoroid mass, is in grams, and the flux is in units of # /m2s. Based on the historical record, we are expecting Leonid ZHR's somewhere between 1000 and 5000 in 1998 and 1999.

Cooke, William J., Jr.↗