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Visible and Near-IR Reflectance Spectra of Smectite Acquired Under Dry Conditions for Interpretation of Martian Surface Mineralogy

Visible and near-IR (VNIR) spectra from the MEx OMEGA and the MRO CRISM hyper-spectral imaging instruments have spectral features associated with the H2O molecule and M OH functional groups (M = Mg, Fe, Al, and Si). Mineralogical assignments of martian spectral features are made on the basis of laboratory VNIR spectra, which were often acquired under ambient (humid) conditions. Smectites like nontronite, saponite, and montmorillionite have interlayer H2O that is exchangeable with their environment, and we have acquired smectite reflectance spectra under dry environmental conditions for interpretation of martian surface mineralogy. We also obtained chemical, Moessbauer (MB), powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), and thermogravimetric (TG) data to understand variations in spectral properties. VNIR spectra were recorded in humid lab air at 25-35C, in a dynamic dry N2 atmosphere (50-150 ppmv H2O) after exposing the smectite samples (5 nontronites, 3 montmorillionites, and 1 saponite) to that atmosphere for up to approximately l000 hr each at 25-35C, approximately 105C, and approximately 215C, and after re-exposure to humid lab air. Heating at 105C and 215C for approximately 1000 hr is taken as a surrogate for geologic time scales at lower temperatures. Upon exposure to dry N2, the position and intensity of spectral features associated with M-OH were relatively insensitive to the dry environment, and the spectral features associated with H2O (e.g., approximately 1.90 micrometers) decreased in intensity and are sometimes not detectable by the end of the 215C heating step. The position and intensity of H2O spectral features recovered upon re-exposure to lab air. XRD data show interlayer collapse for the nontronites and Namontmorillionites, with the interlayer remaining collapsed for the latter after re-exposure to lab air. The interlayer did not collapse for the saponite and Ca-montmorillionite. TG data show that the concentration of H2O derived from structural OH was invariant to the dry N2 treatment for saponite and the montmorillionites, but the nontronites had additional structural OH after treatment. Upon exposure to dry N2, the VNIR spectra also acquired a red slope with decreasing albedo between approximately 0.4 and approximately 2.0 micrometers. The magnitude of the effects covaries with exposure time to dry N2 and heating temperature. Upon re-exposure to lab air, the slope and albedo do not completely recover to pre-exposure values. MB data show that these effects do not result from partial reduction of ferric to ferrous iron, and TG data show they do not result from loss of structural OH. Possible explanations include formation of small clusters of (superparamagnetic) ferric oxide and reduced smectite crystallinity. The difference in spectral properties between spectra acquired in humid lab air and under dry conditions are consequential for interpretation of CRISM and OMEGA spectra. For example, nontronite by itself and not nontronite plus ferrihydrite can account for the red spectral slope in martian spectra where nontronite is indicated by the Fe-OH spectral features.

Morris, Richard V.↗

Effect of Coversheet Materials on the Acoustic Performance of Melamine Foam

Melamine foam is a highly absorptive material that is often used inside the payload fairing walls of a launch vehicle. This foam reduces the acoustic excitation environment that the spacecraft experiences during launch. Often, the melamine foam is enclosed by thin coversheet materials for contamination protection, thermal protection, and electrostatic discharge control. Previous limited acoustic testing by NASA Glenn Research Center has shown that the presence of a coversheet material on the melamine foam can have a significant impact on the absorption coefficient and the transmission loss. As a result of this preliminary finding a more extensive acoustic test program using several different coversheet materials on melamine foam was performed. Those test results are summarized in this paper. Additionally, a method is provided to use the acoustic absorption and transmission loss data obtained from panel level testing to predict their combined effect for the noise reduction of a launch vehicle payload fairing.

Acoustics↗

Determining Transmission Loss from Measured External and Internal Acoustic Environments

An estimate of the internal acoustic environment in each internal cavity of a launch vehicle is needed to ensure survivability of Space Launch System (SLS) avionics. Currently, this is achieved by using the noise reduction database of heritage flight vehicles such as the Space Shuttle and Saturn V for liftoff and ascent flight conditions. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is conducting a series of transmission loss tests to verify and augment this method. For this test setup, an aluminum orthogrid curved panel representing 1/8th of the circumference of a section of the SLS main structure was mounted in between a reverberation chamber and an anechoic chamber. Transmission loss was measured across the panel using microphones. Data measured during this test will be used to estimate the internal acoustic environments for several of the SLS launch vehicle internal spaces.

Scogin, Tyler↗

Impact of low-temperature plasmas on Deinococcus radiodurans and biomolecules

The effects of cold plasma on Deinococcus radiodurans, plasmid DNA, and model proteins were assessed using microbiological, spectrometric, and biochemical techniques. In low power O(2) plasma (approximately 25 W, approximately 45 mTorr, 90 min), D. radiodurans, a radiation-resistant bacterium, showed a 99.999% reduction in bioburden. In higher power O(2) plasma (100 W and 500 mTorr), the reduction rate increased about 10-fold and observation by atomic force microscopy showed significant damage to the cell. Damage to cellular lipids, proteins, and chromosome was indicated by losses of infrared spectroscopic peaks at 2930, 1651, 1538, and 1245 cm(-1), respectively. In vitro experiments show that O(2) plasmas induce DNA strand scissions and cross-linking as well as reduction of enzyme activity. The observed degradation and removal of biomolecules was power-dependent. Exposures to 200 W at 500 mTorr removed biomolecules to below detection limits in 60 s. Emission spectroscopy indicated that D. radiodurans cells were volatilized into CO(2), CO, N(2), and H(2)O, confirming that these plasmas were removing complex biological matter from surfaces. A CO(2) plasma was not as effective as the O(2) plasma, indicating the importance of plasma composition and the dominant role of chemical degradation. Together, these findings have implications for NASA planetary protection schemes and for the contamination of Mars.

Evaluation Studies↗

Drosophila TRIM32 cooperates with glycolytic enzymes to promote cell growth

Cell growth and/or proliferation may require the reprogramming of metabolic pathways, whereby a switch from oxidative to glycolytic metabolism diverts glycolytic intermediates towards anabolic pathways. Herein, we identify a novel role for TRIM32 in the maintenance of glycolytic flux mediated by biochemical interactions with the glycolytic enzymes Aldolase and Phosphoglycerate mutase. Loss of Drosophila TRIM32, encoded by thin (tn), shows reduced levels of glycolytic intermediates and amino acids. This altered metabolic profile correlates with a reduction in the size of glycolytic larval muscle and brain tissue. Consistent with a role for metabolic intermediates in glycolysis-driven biomass production, dietary amino acid supplementation in tn mutants improves muscle mass. Remarkably, TRIM32 is also required for ectopic growth - loss of TRIM32 in a wing disc-associated tumor model reduces glycolytic metabolism and restricts growth. Overall, our results reveal a novel role for TRIM32 for controlling glycolysis in the context of both normal development and tumor growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone↗

Reduction, partial evaporation, and spattering - Possible chemical and physical processes in fluid drop chondrule formation

The major chemical differences between fluid drop chondrules and their probable parent materials may have resulted from the loss of volatiles such as S, H2O, Fe, and volatile siderophile elements by partial evaporation during the chondrule-forming process. Vertical access solar furnace experiments in vacuum and hydrogen have demonstrated such chemical fractionation trends using standard rock samples. The formation of immiscible iron droplets and spherules by in situ reduction of iron from silicate melt and the subsequent evaporation of the iron have been observed directly. During the time that the main sample bead is molten, many small spatter spherules are thrown off the main bead, thereby producing many additional chondrule-like melt spherules that cool rapidly and generate a population of spherules with size frequency distribution characteristics that closely approximate some populations of fluid drop chondrules in chondrites. It is possible that spatter-produced fluid drop chondrules dominate the meteoritic fluid drop chondrule populations. Such meteoritic chondrule populations should be chemically related by various relative amounts of iron and other volatile loss by vapor fractionation.

King, E. A.↗

An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

Lehmann, P.↗

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Patterns of Canopy and Surface Layer Consumption in a Boreal Forest Fire from Repeat Airborne Lidar

Fire in the boreal region is the dominant agent of forest disturbance with direct impacts on ecosystem structure, carbon cycling, and global climate. Global and biome-scale impacts are mediated by burn severity, measured as loss of forest canopy and consumption of the soil organic layer. To date, knowledge of the spatial variability in burn severity has been limited by sparse field sampling and moderate resolution satellite data. Here, we used pre- and post-fire airborne lidar data to directly estimate changes in canopy vertical structure and surface elevation for a 2005 boreal forest fire on Alaskas Kenai Peninsula. We found that both canopy and surface losses were strongly linked to pre-fire species composition and exhibited important fine-scale spatial variability at sub-30m resolution. The fractional reduction in canopy volume ranged from 0.61 in lowland black spruce stands to 0.27 in mixed white spruce and broad leaf forest. Residual structure largely reflects standing dead trees, highlighting the influence of pre-fire forest structure on delayed carbon losses from above ground biomass, post-fire albedo, and variability in understory light environments. Median loss of surface elevation was highest in lowland black spruce stands (0.18 m) but much lower in mixed stands (0.02 m), consistent with differences in pre-fire organic layer accumulation. Spatially continuous depth-of-burn estimates from repeat lidar measurements provide novel information to constrain carbon emissions from the surface organic layer and may inform related research on post-fire successional trajectories. Spectral measures of burn severity from Landsat were correlated with canopy (r = 0.76) and surface (r = -0.71) removal in black spruce stands but captured less of the spatial variability in fire effects for mixed stands (canopy r = 0.56, surface r = -0.26), underscoring the difficulty in capturing fire effects in heterogeneous boreal forest landscapes using proxy measures of burn severity from Landsat.

Alonzo, Michael↗

Corn stover harvest reduces soil CO 2 fluxes but increases overall C losses

Abstract Harvesting corn ( Zea mays L.) stover for use as bioenergy feedstock may provide short‐term economic benefits and perhaps improve grain yield in continuous corn systems, but excessive stover removal may lead to long‐term depletion of soil C stocks. To better quantify the impacts of stover harvest on the soil C balance, we investigated CO 2 fluxes under three harvest treatments (none, moderate, and high) in three continuous corn systems: (a) no tillage and no biochar applications, (b) chisel plowing with biochar amendments, and (c) chisel plowing without biochar amendments were quantified. We sampled static chambers 14, 13, and 15 times in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively, and the measurements were used to calibrate the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator model. Although CO 2 ‐C emissions did not differ among the three systems, both moderate (approximately 30%) and high (approximately 60%) stover removal rates reduced simulated CO 2 ‐C emissions by nearly 10% and more than 22%, respectively. Despite these reductions in CO 2 flux, the sum of CO 2 ‐C and stover C exceeded CO 2 ‐C losses in those plots without stover removal. This finding suggested soil C depletion was occurring for the soil and crop management practices used, even though depletion was not evident after 3 years. Application of biochar increased soil C levels, suggesting it may be able to offset some C losses. We conclude that for sustainable, highly productive agroecosystems that include stover harvest, all agronomic practices must be optimized to minimize C losses and maintain soil quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Steady state cooling flow models with gas loss for normal elliptical galaxies

A grid of cooling flow models for the hot gas in normal elliptical galaxies is calculated, including the loss of gas due to inhomogeneous cooling. The loss process is modeled as a distributed sink for the gas with the rate of loss being proportional to the local cooling rate. The cooling flow models with gas loss have smaller sonic radii, smaller inflow rates in their central regions, lower densities, and higher temperatures than homogeneous models. The reduction in the amount of hot gas flowing into the center of the models brings the models into much better agreement with the observed X-ray surface brightness profiles of elliptical galaxies. However, there is a large dispersion in the observed X-ray luminosities of ellipticals, and this cannot be explained by variations in the efficiency of gas loss. The gas-loss models have X-ray surface brightness profiles which are much less centrally peaked than the no-gas-loss models.

Sarazin, Craig L.↗

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Developing Robust Ceria-Supported Catalysts for Catalytic NO Reduction and CO/Hydrocarbon Oxidation

Synthesis of robust and hydrothermally stable PGM/ceria materials for NO, CO, and hydrocarbon abatement remains a formidable challenge, as ceria and PGMs are known to sinter severely >800 °C under hydrothermal conditions, leading to irreversible activity loss. In this work, we tackle this challenge by synthesizing well-defined catalysts with atomically dispersed rhodium supported on ceria with varying abundance of (100), (101), and (111) facets. Evaluation of these catalysts for NO reduction by CO as well as CO and propylene oxidation under model and industrially relevant conditions reveals pronounced reactivity and stability differences. Different modes of interaction of Rh ions with the ceria facets and their facile reducibility were shown to be the crucial parameters controlling reactivity, resulting in pronounced activity and stability variations. Facet-dependent poisoning of surfaces by nitrites was identified as the main reason for deactivation of the catalysts at low temperature, which is mitigated for (111) ceria facets. (111)-enriched ceria nanoparticles survive very harsh hydrothermal aging at 950 °C by maintaining and preserving (111) facets, unlike other ceria nanoparticles which sinter into poorly defined shapes. Thus, putting atomically dispersed PGM sites on (111) ceria facets lead to the catalytic material with the highest activity and stability for all studied reactions, providing the pathway to catalysts that can endure extremely harsh hydrothermal aging conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Catalytic Reduction of Esters over Zirconia-Supported Metal Catalysts

Esters are often produced as unwanted byproducts during the catalytic upgrading of ethanol to diesel fuel precursors through Guerbet coupling. Removal of esters from the product stream is important to prevent the loss of downstream catalyst activity from ester-derived carboxylic acids. In this work, we studied ester hydrogenolysis to the parent alcohols as a viable route for enhanced diesel fuel production. Specifically, we investigated the reduction of hexyl acetate in butanol over ZrO 2 -supported Ni, Co, Cu, Rh, Pd, and Pt catalysts, where Cu/ZrO 2 was the most selective catalyst for the hydrogenolysis of hexyl acetate into hexanol and ethanol. Thermodynamic analysis reveals that a 90% alcohol yield can be obtained at 200 °C, 30 bar, and a relatively high H 2 :hexyl acetate molar ratio of 480:1. Experimentally, an alcohol yield of 88% yield was obtained with a 10 wt % Cu/ZrO 2 catalyst at these conditions with a residence time of 5.4 h kg cat kmol gas –1 . Catalytic tests on the support revealed that ZrO 2 catalyzes the transesterification reaction between hexyl acetate and butanol. However, only the Cu sites can catalyze the hydrogenolysis of the esters into the final alcohols. We developed a kinetic model for our experimental results, which shows that the transesterification and hydrogenolysis reactions run at two different timescales, the former being 10 times faster than the latter. Data regression has been used to develop a model to predict the mole fraction distribution of ester hydrogenolysis products over a wide range of contact times. Cu/ZrO 2 loses half its catalytic activity after 80 h of time on stream. Modeling of deactivation data reveals that the ZrO 2 support conserves a residual activity due to external active sites, while active sites over the Cu surface deactivate at different rates. Furthermore, the catalytic conversion of esters into their parent alcohols is relevant to the production of surrogate liquid fuels since alcohols can be bimolecularly dehydrated to produce a blend of ethers with diesel fuel-like properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Relationship between Grain Size and Sample Thickness on the Creep-Rupture Performance of Thin Metallic Sheets of INCONEL Alloy 740H

A study was conducted on INCONEL® alloy 740H® to examine the role of grain size and sheet thickness on the alloy’s creep-rupture behavior. Three different starting sheet thicknesses were utilized and multiple heat-treatment conditions anticipated for compact heat exchanger (CHX) manufacturing were applied to produce a range of grain sizes. Creep-rupture testing was conducted at 750 °C for times up to about 6000 h and the results were compared to wrought databases. The data show that both creep strength and ductility were important factors in the overall creep performance of the sheets. Reductions in performance were observed due either to accelerated creep when grain size was fine or loss of rupture ductility when grain sizes approached the sheet thickness. Some combinations of heat-treatment and thickness were able to produce typical expected wrought creep properties. Historically a ‘rule-of-thumb’ requirement for creep testing suggests 3-5 grains per sample minimum dimension to ensure homogeneous behavior. This research shows that to ensure representative wrought creep performance (i.e. no effect of sample size), the sample minimum cross-section should be 10 times the average ASTM grain size. Statistical analysis of the microstructures suggests the population of larger grains as a controlling feature in creep failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗