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At least 739 records · Page 41

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

Polyimide aerogels for ballistic impact protection

The ballistic performance of edge-clamped monolithic polyimide aerogel blocks (12 mm thickness) has been studied through a series of impact tests using a helium-filled gas gun connected to a vacuum chamber and a spherical steel projectile (approximately 3 mm diameter) with an impact velocity range of 150–1300 m s -1 . The aerogels had an average bulk density of 0.17 g cm -3 with high porosity of approximately 88%. The ballistic limit velocity of the aerogels was estimated to be in the range of 175–179 m s -1 . Moreover, the aerogels showed a robust ballistic energy absorption performance (e.g., at the impact velocity of 1283 m s -1 at least 18% of the impact energy was absorbed). At low impact velocities, the aerogels failed by ductile hole enlargement followed by a tensile failure. By contrast, at high impact velocities, the aerogels failed through an adiabatic shearing process. Given the substantially robust ballistic performance, the polyimide aerogels have a potential to combat multiple constraints such as cost, weight, and volume restrictions in aeronautical and aerospace applications with high blast resistance and ballistic performance requirements such as in stuffed Whipple shields for orbital debris containment application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Visual Impact Assessment of the Energetic Materials Complex Construction Project on Manhattan Project–Era Historic Properties, the TA-06-0037 Concrete Bowl, and the TA-22-0001 Quonset Hut

Concern for potential visual effects to historic Manhattan Project–era properties emerged early in the planning and consultation phase for the upcoming Energetic Materials Complex (EMC) construction project. In initial discussions with project managers and design team members, resource managers became aware of the need to consider potential impacts to the viewsheds of two nearby properties that are eligible for inclusion in the Manhattan Project National Historical Park (MAPR). Resource managers recognized that viewshed characteristics important to the integrity of the Concrete Bowl (Technical Area [TA-]06-0037) and the Quonset Hut (TA-22-0001) conceivably faced the prospect of lasting and irreversible visual impacts. A strategy to gather necessary data soon emerged. The approach presented to the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) on April 7, 2021, combined gathering baseline information from field visits with a geographic information system (GIS)-supported viewshed analysis. Accordingly, results from the viewshed analysis would help resource managers determine if a more comprehensive visual impact assessment (VIA) would be needed. If necessitated by the outcome of the GIS viewshed analysis, initial consultation with the SHPO specified the production of a VIA that would explore any potential visual adverse impacts to the Concrete Bowl and the Quonset Hut. Cultural resources and GIS specialists with the Laboratory performed a viewshed analysis shortly after consultation with the SHPO. The analysis indicated a high likelihood that at least one of the two Manhattan Project–era properties would experience at least a minimal level of visual impact and that a VIA would be needed. The resulting analysis provides a description of the undertaking, an account of the properties affected along with an evaluation of historical significance, an examination of potential visual impacts, and a determination of effect to the identified historic properties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Statement of Work for Impact Testing

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (“LLNL”) will outsource impact testing (also known as drop hammer testing) of PETN (Pentaerythritol tetranitrate) to Safety Management Services Inc. (“Subcontractor”). This document describes the objective, technical approach, and deliverables. Subcontractor will conduct impact testing studies on three PETN samples. LLNL will provide the samples. LLNL selected this company for impact testing because LLNL has an impact test machine purchased from the same vendor. The objective of this work is to answer the following questions: 1) What are the variations in impact sensitivity results between three PETN samples LLNL will provide?; 2) What is the effect of starting mass on impact sensitivity of PETN?

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources

Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Biorefinery Marginal Air Quality Impacts and Comparison to Feedstock Production

This study assesses the air quality impacts of an advanced biorefinery that produces renewable diesel blendstock (RDB) from lignocellulosic biomass via aerobic respiration (Davis et al. 2022) by estimating fine particulate matter (PM2.5) impacts from biorefinery emissions. It continues a prior analysis that used a geospatial assessment to identify source regions for biomass feedstocks and studied the impact of feedstock production emissions on air quality (Thind et al. 2022). Thind et al. (2022) identified RDB biorefineries that can use corn stover feedstocks of 2,000; 5,200; and 9,100 dry metric tons per day (DMT/day), based in Iowa, and suggested 7 unique counties can serve as hosts for a biorefinery that draws biomass feedstock from neighboring counties. Given 13 unique county-biorefinery size combinations and two waste lignin end uses at the biorefinery (lignin as a fuel for electricity generation and lignin for pellet production), the air-quality-related sustainability aspects of each of these 26 scenarios are assessed by estimating the annual average impacts of biorefinery emissions on the dispersion and formation of secondary PM2.5 in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity air quality model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). The 26 biorefinery design combinations help capture how a biorefinery's emissions of air pollutants and their resulting impact on local and regional air quality are influenced by the magnitude of production scale, lignin utilization strategy, and location of a proposed biorefinery. Methods developed in Thind et al. (2022) are applied to estimate the constraints on primary PM2.5 and secondary PM2.5 precursor emissions based on compliance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) annual primary National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of PM2.5 (i.e.12.0 micrograms per cubic meter (microgram/m3)) at downwind receptors of a biorefinery. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations caused by the emission of biorefining corn stover into RDB are assessed and compared to those of corn stover production. To illuminate which upstream supply chain stage of renewable diesel production contributes most to air quality impacts, marginal PM2.5 concentrations are compared between both stages at multiple downwind air quality monitor locations. In addition, through a hotspot analysis, we identify the primary contributing factors of emissions within the feedstock production and biorefinery stage operations. In doing so, we provide insights for improving the air pollutant emission-related sustainability of advanced lignocellulosic biofuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impacts of Single-Scattering and Microphysical Properties of Ice Particles Smaller Than 100 µm on the Bulk Radiative Properties of Tropical Cirrus

There are large uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of ice particles whose size are less than ~100 µm. Insufficient resolutions of the most advanced cloud probes (e.g., cloud particle imager) cannot resolve the micrometer-scale morphologies of small ice particles. Further, the shattering of large ice particles on probes’ inlets or tips causes uncertainties in the measurement of the concentrations of small ice particles. These uncertainties have large impacts on the single-scattering and microphysical properties of small ice particles that are utilized to quantify the bulk radiative properties of cirrus. In this study, the impacts of uncertainties in the morphologies and concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties of tropical cirrus were calculated using measurements acquired during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment. Five different models (i.e., budding Buckyball, Chebyshev particle, droxtal, Gaussian random sphere, and sphere) that represent the shapes of small ice particles were used to calculate the single-scattering properties. The bulk radiative properties, average phase-function ($\overline{P_{11}}$), and average asymmetry parameter ($\overline{g}$) were computed by combining the measured size/habit distributions and the calculated single-scattering properties of ice particles. The impacts of the selection of varying morphologies of small particles on the bulk radiative properties were quantified. For these calculations, the possible range of the concentrations of small ice particles which depend on the degree of shattered large particles were also used. The impacts of varying the single-scattering properties of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were the largest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C), while they were the smallest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C). The impacts of uncertainties in the concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were largest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C), whereas they were smallest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C). The effect of shattering was maximum in the lower parts of cirrus, whilst it was minimum in the upper parts of cirrus. The combined impacts of uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of small ice particles revealed variations of up to 11.2% (127.1%; 67.3%) of the integrated intensity in the forward (sideward; backward) angles in $\overline{P_{11}}$ and a corresponding change in $\overline{g}$ by up to 12.61%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced Atmospheres of Post-impact Worlds: The Early Earth

Impacts may have had a significant effect on the atmospheric chemistry of the early Earth. Reduced phases in the impactor (e.g., metallic iron) can reduce the planet's H 2 O inventory to produce massive atmospheres rich in H 2 . While previous studies have focused on the interactions between the impactor and atmosphere in such scenarios, we investigate two further effects: (1) the distribution of the impactor's iron inventory during impact between the target interior, target atmosphere, and escaping the target; and (2) interactions between the post-impact atmosphere and the impact-generated melt phase. We find that these two effects can potentially counterbalance each other, with the melt–atmosphere interactions acting to restore reducing power to the atmosphere that was initially accreted by the melt phase. For a ~10 22 kg impactor, when the iron accreted by the melt phase is fully available to reduce this melt, we find an equilibrium atmosphere with H 2 column density ~10 4 moles cm –2 (pH 2 ~ 120 bars, X H2 ~ 0.77), consistent with previous estimates. However, when the iron is not available to reduce the melt (e.g., sinking out in large diameter blobs), we find significantly less H 2 (7 × 10 2 – 5 × 10 3 moles cm –2 , pH 2 ≲ 60 bars, X H2 ≲ 0.41). These lower H 2 abundances are sufficiently high that species important to prebiotic chemistry can form (e.g., NH 3 , HCN), but sufficiently low that the greenhouse heating effects associated with highly reducing atmospheres, which are problematic to such chemistry, are suppressed. The manner in which iron is accreted by the impact-generated melt phase is critical in determining the reducing power of the atmosphere and resolidified melt pool in the aftermath of impact.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying the impacts of atmospheric rivers on the surface energy budget of the Arctic based on reanalysis

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th-percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2019. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to both the seasonal SEB components and net SEB climatology reveals clear seasonality and distinct land–sea–sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea-ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring. This warming is primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation (LWD), which average 29–45 W m −2 during the cold seasons. In contrast, AR-related LWD anomalies are smaller in summer, averaging around 15 W m −2 , indicating a reduced impact during this season. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies. AR-related turbulent heat anomalies reduce the upward turbulent flux, contributing up to −11 % relative to its seasonal climatology. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB because the large LWD anomalies are largely offset by corresponding increases in upward longwave radiation, particularly during cold seasons. Additionally, the seemingly large relative contributions of ARs to the net SEB over land primarily reflects the small magnitude of the climatological net SEB over continents. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54 % to mean SEB and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. Additionally, results of AR-related SEB impacts strongly depend on detection methods, as restrictive AR detection algorithms that emphasize extreme AR events, with large AR-related anomalies, do not necessarily indicate a large overall contribution to the SEB climatology due to the low occurrence frequency of these events. This study quantifies the role of ARs in the surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification.

Arctic Sea ice change↗

Simultaneous impact and lunar craters

The existence of large terrestrial impact crater doublets and crater doublets that have been inferred to be impact craters on Mars suggests that simultaneous impact of two or more bodies can occur at nearly the same point on planetary surfaces. An experimental study of simultaneous impact of two projectiles near one another shows that doublet craters with ridges perpendicular to the bilateral axis of symmetry result when separation between impact points relative to individual crater diameter is large. When separation is progressively less, elliptical craters with central ridges and peaks, and circular craters with deep round bottoms are produced. These craters are similar in structure to many of the large lunar craters. Results suggest that the simultaneous impact of meteoroids near one another may be an important mechanism for the production of central peaks in large lunar craters.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

Theoretical analysis of impact in composite plates

The calculated stresses and displacements induced anisotropic plates by short duration impact forces are presented. The theoretical model attempts to model the response of fiber composite turbine fan blades to impact by foreign objects such as stones and hailstones. In this model the determination of the impact force uses the Hertz impact theory. The plate response treats the laminated blade as an equivalent anisotropic material using a form of Mindlin's theory for crystal plates. The analysis makes use of a computational tool called the fast Fourier transform. Results are presented in the form of stress contour plots in the plane of the plate for various times after impact. Examination of the maximum stresses due to impact versus ply layup angle reveals that the + or - 15 deg layup angle gives lower flexural stresses than 0 deg, + or - 30 deg and + or - 45 deg. cases.

Moon, F. C.↗

Error analysis of penetrator impacts on bodies without atmospheres

Penetrators are missile shaped objects designed to implant electronic instrumentation in various of surface materials with a nominal impact speed around 150 m/sec. An interest in the application of this concept to in situ subsurface studies of extra terrestrial bodies and planetary satellites exists. Since many of these objects do not have atmospheres, the feasibility of successfully guiding penetrators to the required near-zero angle-of-attack impact conditions in the absence of an atmosphere was analyzed. Two potential targets were included, i.e., the moon and Mercury and several different penetrator deployment modes were involved. Impact errors arising from open-loop and closed-loop deployment control systems were given particular attention. Successful penetrator implacement requires: (1) that the impact speed be controlled, nominally to 150 m/sec, (2) that the angle of attack be in range 0 deg - 11 deg at impact, and (3) that the impact flight path angle be with 15 deg of vertical.

Davis, D. R.↗

Impact of composite plates: Analysis of stresses and forces

The foreign object damage resistance of composite fan blades was studied. Edge impact stresses in an anisotropic plate were first calculated incorporating a constrained layer damping model. It is shown that a very thin damping layer can dramatically decrease the maximum normal impact stresses. A multilayer model of a composite plate is then presented which allows computation of the interlaminar normal and shear stresses. Results are presented for the stresses due to a line impact load normal to the plane of a composite plate. It is shown that significant interlaminar tensile stresses can develop during impact. A computer code was developed for this problem using the fast Fourier transform. A marker and cell computer code were also used to investigate the hydrodynamic impact of a fluid slug against a wall or turbine blade. Application of fluid modeling of bird impact is reviewed.

Moon, F. C.↗

Effect of Low Velocity Impact Damage on the Compressive Strength of Graphite/Epoxy Hat-Stiffened Panels

Low velocity impact damage on the compressive strength of graphite/epoxy hat stiffened panels is studied. Fourteen panels, representative of minimum-mass designs for two compression load levels were tested. Eight panels were damaged by impact and the effect on compressive strength was evaluated by comparing the results with data for undamaged panels. The impact tests consisted of firing 1.27 cm diameter aluminum projectiles normal to the plane of the panel at a velocity of approximately 55 m/sec to simulate impact from runway debris. The results of this investigation indicate that impact damage in the panels designed for 0.53 MN/m was contained locally and the damaged panels were capable of carrying the design load. The panels designed for 1.58 MN/m failed between 50 and 58 percent of the design load due to impact damage in the high axial stiffness region. The extent of damage in the high axial stiffness region of both panel designs increased with the magnitude of applied axial load. Damage in this region was the most significant factor in reducing panel strength. Limited damage that was not visually detectable reduced ultimate strength as much as extensive visible damage.

Rhodes, M. D.↗

Thermal environment effects on strength and impact properties of boron-aluminum composites

Thermal effects on fracture strength and impact energy were studied in 50 volume percent unidirectional composites of 143 and 203 micron boron fibers in 6061 and 1100 aluminum matrices. For 6061 matrix composites, strength was maintained to approximately 400 C in the cyclic tests and higher than 400 C in the static tests. For the 1100 matrix composites, strength degradation appeared near 260 C after cycling and higher than 260 C in static heating. This composite strength degradation is explained by a fiber degradation mechanism resulting from a boron-aluminum interface reaction. The impact energy absorption degraded significantly only above 400 C for both matrix alloys. Thus, while impact loss for the 6061 composite correlates with the fiber strength loss, other energy absorption processes appear to extend the impact resistance of the 1100 matrix composites to temperatures beyond where its strength is degraded. Interrupted impact tests on as-received and thermally cycled composites define the range of load over which the fibers break in the impact event.

Grimes, H. H.↗