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At least 739 records · Page 41

Revealing subterahertz atomic vibrations in quantum paraelectrics by surface-sensitive spintronic terahertz spectroscopy

Understanding surface collective dynamics in quantum materials is crucial for advancing quantum technologies. For example, surface phonon modes in quantum paraelectrics are thought to be essential in facilitating interfacial superconductivity. However, detecting these modes, especially below 1 terahertz, is challenging because of limited sampling volumes and the need for high spectroscopic resolution. Here, we report surface soft transverse optical (TO1) phonon dynamics in KTaO 3 and SrTiO 3 by surface-sensitive spintronic terahertz spectroscopy that can sense the collective modes only a few nanometers deep from the surface. In KTaO 3 , the TO1 mode softens and sharpens with decreasing temperature, leveling off at 0.7 terahertz. In contrast, this mode in SrTiO 3 broadens substantially below the quantum paraelectric crossover and coincides with the hardening of a sub–milli–electron volt phonon mode related to the antiferrodistortive transition. These observations that deviate from their bulk properties may have implications for interfacial superconductivity and ferroelectricity. The developed technique opens opportunities for sensing low-energy surface collective excitations.

Chu, Zhaodong↗

Structural integrity of additively manufactured stainless steel with cold sprayed barrier coating under combined cyclic loading

Integration of metal additive manufacturing (AM) and cold spray (CS) technologies provide an unprecedented opportunity to manufacture coated material systems with complex geometrical features. The application of these material systems in functionally critical components requires adequate structural integrity, particularly in the presence of cyclic loading. This article researches the multiaxial fatigue (axial-torsional cyclic loading) behavior of a coated material system consisting of 15Cr-5Ni precipitation-hardening stainless steel (15-5 PH SS) substrate additively manufactured by direct metal laser sintering with a layer of chromium carbide nickel (CrC-Ni) barrier coating deposited by CS. The influence of AM and CS-induced residual stresses on fatigue performance of test specimens was thoroughly studied. Additionally, the effect of surface roughness and processes induced defects were considered to explain the crack growth mechanism. Stresses assessed by synchrotron X-ray diffraction indicated a substantial accumulation of residual stresses, particularly in the outer surface of the as-fabricated 155 PH SS specimens. The state of residual stress was changed notably following the deposition of CrC-Ni coating in the axial, hoop, and radial directions of the fatigue test specimen. Also, CS deposition of CrC-Ni coating caused significant improvement in the surface quality of the additively manufactured components. Fatigue test results indicated, CS deposition of CrC-Ni substantially enhances the fatigue life of the AM-produced 15-5 PH SS substrate in all loading conditions, particularly in the high cycle fatigue regime. The improvement in the fatigue life of the specimens with coating was associated with a reduction in equivalent residual stress at the substrate surface and improvement in the specimens' surface condition (i.e., reduced surface roughness). The fractographic analysis of the specimen indicated the cracks tend to initiate in the surface of both as-fabricated and cold-sprayed specimens. However, the mechanism of crack growth changed notably following the deposition of CrC-Ni coating. The cracks tended to propagate in the planes parallel or with a small deviation from the build layers of the AM-produced specimens. On the other hand, deposition of CrC-Ni coating increased the deviation of crack growth plane from the build layers of the substrate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Final Measurement of the 235 U Antineutrino Energy Spectrum with the PROSPECT-I Detector at HFIR

This Letter reports one of the most precise measurements to date of the antineutrino spectrum from a purely 235 U-fueled reactor, made with the final dataset from the PROSPECT-I detector at the High Flux Isotope Reactor. By extracting information from previously unused detector segments, this analysis effectively doubles the statistics of the previous PROSPECT measurement. Further, the reconstructed energy spectrum is unfolded into antineutrino energy and compared with both the Huber-Mueller model and a spectrum from a commercial reactor burning multiple fuel isotopes. A local excess over the model is observed in the 5–7 MeV energy region. Comparison of the PROSPECT results with those from commercial reactors provides new constraints on the origin of this excess, disfavoring at 2.0 and 3.7 standard deviations the hypotheses that antineutrinos from 235 U are solely responsible and noncontributors to the excess observed at commercial reactors, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Solubility behavior and thermodynamic modeling of sodium monosulfoaluminate (“U‐phase”) in cementitious systems

Abstract The “U‐phase,” a sodium‐containing (alumino‐ferrite‐monosubstituent) AFm phase, has been observed to form in sodium‐enriched highly alkaline cementitious systems, for example, of relevance to nuclear waste, and saline industrial brine management. But, minimal information is available of the U‐phase's (e.g., solubility or thermodynamic properties) due to its limited stability and its tendency to transform into ettringite or monosulfoaluminate. Herein, the U‐phase was systematically synthesized at four temperatures (5, 15, 25, and 50°C) and fully characterized in terms of its thermochemical properties. The average composition of the synthesized U‐phase (4CaO·Al 2 O 3 ·1.85SO 3 ·0.85Na 2 O·12H 2 O) deviates slightly from typical disclosures in the literature. The solubility product of the U‐phase formation was measured from conditions of oversaturation. The measured thermodynamic data accurately predicted experimental observations of U‐phase formation in cementitious environments. In general, it was noted that the U‐phase forms and persists (i.e., remains stable) at pH > 13.7 and [Na + ] concentrations superior to 1 mol/L.

Materials Science↗

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variations in the Width, Density, and Direction of the Palomar 5 Tidal Tails

Stars that escape globular clusters form tidal tails that are predominantly shaped by the global distribution of mass in the Galaxy, but also preserve a historical record of small-scale perturbations. Using deep grz photometry from DECaLS, we present highly probable members of the tidal tails associated with the evaporating globular cluster Palomar 5. These data yield the cleanest view of a stellar stream beyond ≈20 kpc and reveal: (1) a wide, low surface-brightness extension of the leading tail; (2) significant density variations along the stream; and (3) sharp changes in the direction of both the leading and the trailing tail. In the fiducial Milky Way model, a rotating bar perturbs the Palomar 5 tails and can produce streams with similar width and density profiles to those observed. However, the deviations of the stream track in this simple model do not match those observed in the Palomar 5 trailing tail, indicating the need for an additional source of perturbation. These discoveries open up the possibility of measuring the population of perturbers in the Milky Way, including dark-matter subhalos, with an ensemble of stellar streams and deep photometry alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fielding and analyzing performance of a prototype high voltage output gas switch for Saturn

Timing spread between the thirty-six Saturn modules affects peak electrical power delivered to the Bremsstrahlung diode and can affect vacuum power flow and impedance behavior of the load. To reduce the module spread, a new megavolt gas-insulated closing switch was developed employing design techniques developed for the Z-machine laser triggered switches while retaining Saturn’s simpler electrical triggering. Two modules were temporarily outfitted with the new switches and used separately into local resistive loads (instead of the usual Saturn electron beam load). A reliable operating point and switch time jitter at that point were the goals of the experiments. The target switch reliability is less than one pre-fire in one thousand switch-shots, and a timing standard deviation of 4 nanoseconds. The switches were able to meet both requirements but the number of tests at the chosen point are limited.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Search for beyond-mean-field signatures in heavy-ion fusion reactions

Examination of high-resolution, experimental fusion excitation functions for 16,17,18 O + 12 C reveals a remarkable irregular behavior that is rooted in the structure of both the colliding nuclei and the quasi-molecular composite system. The impact of the l-dependent fusion barriers is assessed using a time-dependent Hartree-Fock model, viewed as a mean-field reference. Barrier penetrabilities, taken directly from a density-constrained calculation, provide a significantly improved description of the experimental data as compared to the standard Hill-Wheeler approach. Furthermore, the remaining deviations between the parameter-free theoretical mean-field predictions and experimental fusion cross sections are exposed and discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Observation of Medium-Induced Yield Enhancement and Acoplanarity Broadening of Low-𝑝T Jets from Measurements in 𝑝⁢𝑝 and Central Pb-Pb Collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The ALICE Collaboration reports the measurement of semi-inclusive distributions of charged-particle jets recoiling from a high transverse momentum (high p T ) hadron trigger in proton-proton and central Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. A data-driven statistical method is used to mitigate the large uncorrelated background in central Pb-Pb collisions. Recoil jet distributions are reported for jet resolution parameter R = 0.2, 0.4, and 0.5 in the range 7 < p T.jet < 140 GeV=c and trigger-recoil jet azimuthal separation π/2 < Δφ < π. The measurements exhibit a marked medium-induced jet yield enhancement at low p T and at large azimuthal deviation from Δφ ~ π. The enhancement is characterized by its dependence on Δφ, which has a slope that differs from zero by 4.7σ. Comparisons to model calculations incorporating different formulations of jet quenching are reported. These comparisons indicate that the observed yield enhancement arises from the response of the QGP medium to jet propagation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Emissions mitigation technology for advanced water-lean solvent-based CO 2 capture processes

This technical final report submitted to DOE/NETL presents all the research activities performed during the entirety of DE-FE0031660 project-Emissions Mitigation Technology for Advanced Water-Lean Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Processes which spans from October 2018 through March 2022. RTI International has been conducting studies from fundamental and operational aspects to reduce the overall amine emissions from the advanced Water-Lean Solvent (WLS) systems, specifically RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent (NAS). This technical final report will highlight the key findings from project which align closely to the project objectives which are: Identify the contribution of vapor loss, entrainment, and aerosols to the overall emissions of water-lean systems; Determine the significance of CO 2 capture system operating parameters to the amine emissions; Develop an emissions model based on critical operating parameters; Evaluate the effectiveness of emissions mitigation devices to reduce the amine emissions to <1 ppm under flue coal-fired flue gas; and, Determine the contribution of the ECTs to the overall CO 2 capture cost. The following are the key findings based on numerous tests using both lab-scale setups and parametric testing performed at RTI’s Bench-scale Gas Absorption System (BsGAS). During the BP1, the aerosol generation system and monitoring equipment were installed at BsGAS to produce and determine the aerosol characteristics during the NAS CO 2 capture process. The aerosol produced by this setup produced aerosols with the peak diameter and concentration of 50 micron and 1.2E10 7 cm -3 , respectively. These particle sizes and concentrations are matched to those observed in the actual coal-fired power plant flue gases and expected to be found at the absorber inlet of the CO 2 capture system. Over 1,300 hours of parametric testing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of the aerosols and operating conditions during the CO 2 capture with NAS on the overall amine emissions in the treated flue gas. At the worse condition tested, the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from NAS’s vapor pressure. CO 2 capture rate was found to be a main factor impacting the overall emissions as well as aerosol size and concentrations in the absorber off-gas. The higher CO 2 capture rate, the higher amine emissions in the treated gas. The temperature difference between the temperature bulge seen in the absorber and the water wash temperature also impacts the particle growth where the larger the temperature difference, the more amine emissions from aerosols in the treated gas. The majority of the aerosols did not grow substantially in the system, and the particle concentrations remained nearly constant between the absorber inlet and wash outlet. Only a small portion of the particles were found to grow significantly. The high efficiency demister with mesh size of 5-10 micron can be installed to remove a portion of the aerosols from the gas stream leaving the water wash. Overall, these results from parametric testing have established the emission baseline and validate our assumption on the need of emission control technologies (ECT) in order to minimize the emissions from the baseline NAS CO 2 capture process. Over 2,000 of BsGAS operating hours was used to investigate a handful of process improvements which led to a selection of the vital few changes that effectively control the amine emissions. These process improvements are lime-coated-filters for absorber gas inlet, advanced demister at the top of the absorber, a second water wash with amine recovery unit were designed, installed, and tested at BsGAS at the end of BP1. The result showed that the NAS CO 2 capture process with these additional emission control devices could lower the amine emission in the treated gas to about 1 ppm using a simulated coal-fire flue gas stream. The main contributor in lowering the amine emission came from the second water wash with amine recovery unit where the amine concentration in the scrubbing water was kept below 2 wt% through a continuous amine removal via an adsorbent bed, resulting in a low amine vapor pressure. The adsorbent bed was regenerated via a direct steam regeneration and the recover amine was returned to the absorber to minimize wastewater and makeup amine. A flue gas generation system was designed and installed during the first half of BP2 to support the emission testing using a real coal-derived flue gas. The system is capable of generating both coal- and natural gas- derived flue gases with the composition of the gaseous species highly resemble to that of the power plant flue gases. The particulates detected in the coal-derived flue gas showed the mean diameter of 1 micron. The CO 2 capture operating was then proceed using the real coal-derived flue gas where the amine emission was controlled to be about 0-3 ppm for the total run time of about 200 hours. Similar testing was conducted with natural gas-derived flue gas and the result showed a highly amine emission of 30 ppm under the total run time of 200 hours. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Partial Least Squares Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) techniques were applied to the parametric testing data to derive a multivariate statistical model. The model was validated and trained with half of the data collected, and the predictive ability of the model was evaluated using the remaining half of the data. The resulting empirical model was capable of predicting the overall emissions from the NAS process without the ECTs with ±15% accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD) in BP1. As more emission data were obtained under the real coal-flue gas in the BP2, the model incorporated these new set of data to reflect the final process configuration, operating parameters, and amine emission. This results in the updated empirical model predicting the amine emission from the NAS CO 2 capture process with 84% goodness-of-fit (R 2 ), 85% predictability (Q 2 ), and 15% AAD. The study evaluates the use of RTI’s Non-Aqueous Solvent technology for 90% CO 2 capture from a net 650 MWe pulverized coal power plant, downstream of the flue-gas desulfurization unit. The captured CO 2 has a purity of > 95% CO 2 , and is dried, compressed to 15.3 MPa (2,215 psia), ready for sequestration. The analysis uses Case B12B from the DOE Baseline study on Bituminous Coal, Revision 4 where the Cansolv CO 2 capture plant is replaced by the RTI CO 2 Capture plant. The CO 2 capture plant has been sized to capture >90% CO 2 from flue gas derived from a net 650 MWe supercritical pulverized coal power plant. The CO 2 capture plant is equipped with emission control technologies that limits the amine emissions to < 1 ppm. Two different cases were evaluated for the technoeconomic study. The key difference between the two cases is the regenerator pressure. In Case 1, the regenerator operates at 0.195 MPa (28.3 psia), whereas in Case 2, the regenerator pressure is 0.44 MPa (64 psia) thus removing the need for the first stage of compression of the eight-stage compression train. Results from the TEA are compared against the DOE reference cases for SCPC plant with and without CO 2 Capture (Case B12A and Case B12B of the DOE Baseline study, respectively). Case 2 with CO 2 regeneration at higher pressure results in the lower cost of CO 2 capture. The total capital cost of the capture process has been estimated using 2018 dollars in Aspen Process Economic Analyzer and was estimated to be $579 MM. The capture plant operation leads to a total parasitic power loss rate of 96 MWe, resulting in a decrease in pulverized coal power plant efficiency of 7.8% points. The resulting cost of electric power increases from 64.4 mills/kWh, for no capture, to 97.5 mills/kWh, with 90% capture, an increase of 51% in the COE. The cost of capturing 90% CO 2 was estimated to be $38.2/tonne-CO 2 , and meets the DOE target of $40/t-CO 2 . Emission control technologies (ECT) investigated in this project includes a second water wash with use of activated carbon beds for removal of amine from the wash water prior to recirculation in the water wash. These ECT allow operation of the CO 2 capture plant with < 1 ppm amine emissions with the treated flue gas and contributes to $2.4/t-CO 2 captured. Amine emissions derived from thermal and oxidative degradations were investigated under this project along with the emissions derived from aerosols for the NAS system. The thermally degraded of the lean NAS showed less than 4% decreased of the original total amine content in the NAS at 150 °C while the result obtained at 120 °C showed no drop in total amine content, suggesting that thermal degradation of the NAS is minimal. These results also suggested that the thermally degraded species are not likely formed and contributed to the emissions due to the low regeneration temperature of the NAS at 90-105 °C. The oxidative degradation, on the other hand, could become problematic as some of these oxidative degraded species were observed during the NAS-5 testing at National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and SINTEF in our previous project. The rapid screening of selected inhibitors suggested that oxidative degradation of NAS can be suppressed using thiol containing compounds in amounts of at least 1 mol%. The detailed mechanistic degradation pathway was conceived for a specific amine used in NAS formulation during BP2. he reduction of the nitrosamines caused by the NO x present in the flue gas was also examined. The study suggested that the thermo-chemical treatment of the NAS solvent would be a more effective and economically viable compared to removing NO x at the DCC.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Towards high-precision parton distributions from lattice QCD via distillation

We apply the Distillation spatial smearing program to the extraction of the unpolarized isovector valence PDF of the nucleon. The improved volume sampling and control of excited-states afforded by distillation leads to a dramatically improved determination of the requisite Ioffe-time Pseudo-distribution (pITD). The impact of higher-twist effects is subsequently explored by extending the Wilson line length present in our non-local operators to one half the spatial extent of the lattice ensemble considered. The valence PDF is extracted by analyzing both the matched Ioffe-time Distribution (ITD), as well as a direct matching of the pITD to the PDF. Through development of a novel prescription to obtain the PDF from the pITD, we establish a concerning deviation of the pITD from the expected DGLAP evolution of the pseudo-PDF. The presence of DGLAP evolution is observed once more following introduction of a discretization term into the PDF extractions. Observance and correction of this discrepancy further highlights the utility of distillation in such structure studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reynolds stress tensor measurements using magnetic resonance velocimetry: expansion of the dynamic measurement range and analysis of systematic measurement errors

This study presents magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) Reynolds Stress measurements in a periodic hill channel with a hill Reynolds number of Re = 29,500. The velocity encoding scheme is based on the ICOSA6 method with six icosahedral encoding directions and multiple encoding values are measured to increase the dynamic range. The full Reynolds stress tensor is obtained from a voxel-wise three-dimensional Gaussian fit using the magnitude data of all acquisitions. The MRV results are compared to a wall-resolved large eddy simulation and laser Doppler velocimetry measurements conducted in the same channel. It is shown that the MRV Reynolds stress data have excellent precision and agree qualitatively with the reference data. However, there are apparent systematic deviations. One of the most prominent error contributions is the signal attenuation caused by higher orders of motion, which leads to an overestimation of the turbulence level. Another fundamental error is identified in the assumption that the turbulence is Gaussian distributed. With the presented reconstruction technique, the MRV data are fitted to a statistical model, and depending on the examined flow setup, the Gaussian model can lead to considerable errors. Possible ways of how to reduce all identified errors are presented. In summary, this technique enables Reynolds stress tensor measurements in complex internal flows with high dynamic range and excellent precision. However, several issues need to be resolved to make the turbulence quantification more accurate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated Fitting of a Semi-empirical Multiphase Equation of State for Carbon

The equation of state (EOS) of carbon is important in high explosive, geophysical, and inertial confinement fusion applications. Within the semi-empirical Sesame framework, the EOS of each phase is represented by a sum of cold, vibrational, and thermal electronic Helmholtz free energy contributions. Each phase has ~5-10 independent parameters that are adjusted to reproduce single-phase data (e.g., thermal expansion, isothermal compression) as well as experimentally- and computationally- derived phase boundaries. Manual calibration of the full multiphase EOS is arduous. We present our progress in development of automated EOS parameterization based on minimization of an objective function. Here, this function encodes deviation of model EOS results from experimental/computational benchmarks. Optimization is implemented as a combination of global (particle swarm) and local optimization techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body mock challenge for the eBOSS emission line galaxy sample

ABSTRACT Cosmological growth can be measured in the redshift space clustering of galaxies targeted by spectroscopic surveys. Accurate prediction of clustering of galaxies will require understanding galaxy physics, which is a very hard and highly non-linear problem. Approximate models of redshift space distortion (RSD) take a perturbative approach to solve the evolution of dark matter and galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we focus on extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic (eBOSS) emission line galaxies (ELGs) that live in intermediate mass haloes. We create a series of mock catalogues using haloes from the Multidark and outer rim dark matter only N-body simulations. Our mock catalogues include various effects inspired by baryonic physics such as assembly bias and the characteristics of satellite galaxies kinematics, dynamics, and statistics deviating from dark matter particles. We analyse these mocks using the TNS RSD model in Fourier space and the convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) in configuration space. We conclude that these two RSD models provide an unbiased measurement of RSD within the statistical error of our mocks. We obtain the conservative theoretical systematic uncertainty of $3.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $1.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in fσ8, α∥, and α⊥, respectively, for the TNS and CLPT models. We note that the estimated theoretical systematic error is an order of magnitude smaller than the statistical error of the eBOSS ELG sample and hence are negligible for the purpose of the current eBOSS ELG analysis.

Alam, Shadab↗

Searching for fat tails in CRISPR-Cas systems: Data analysis and mathematical modeling

Understanding CRISPR-Cas systems—the adaptive defence mechanism that about half of bacterial species and most of archaea use to neutralise viral attacks—is important for explaining the biodiversity observed in the microbial world as well as for editing animal and plant genomes effectively. The CRISPR-Cas system learns from previous viral infections and integrates small pieces from phage genomes called spacers into the microbial genome. The resulting library of spacers collected in CRISPR arrays is then compared with the DNA of potential invaders. One of the most intriguing and least well understood questions about CRISPR-Cas systems is the distribution of spacers across the microbial population. Here, using empirical data, we show that the global distribution of spacer numbers in CRISPR arrays across multiple biomes worldwide typically exhibits scale-invariant power law behaviour, and the standard deviation is greater than the sample mean. We develop a mathematical model of spacer loss and acquisition dynamics which fits observed data from almost four thousand metagenomes well. In analogy to the classical ‘rich-get-richer’ mechanism of power law emergence, the rate of spacer acquisition is proportional to the CRISPR array size, which allows a small proportion of CRISPRs within the population to possess a significant number of spacers. Our study provides an alternative explanation for the rarity of all-resistant super microbes in nature and why proliferation of phages can be highly successful despite the effectiveness of CRISPR-Cas systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Persistent Classification: Understanding Adversarial Attacks by Studying Decision Boundary Dynamics

ABSTRACT There are a number of hypotheses underlying the existence of adversarial examples for classification problems. These include the high‐dimensionality of the data, the high codimension in the ambient space of the data manifolds of interest, and that the structure of machine learning models may encourage classifiers to develop decision boundaries close to data points. This article proposes a new framework for studying adversarial examples that does not depend directly on the distance to the decision boundary. Similarly to the smoothed classifier literature, we define a (natural or adversarial) data point to be ( γ , σ)‐stable if the probability of the same classification is at least for points sampled in a Gaussian neighborhood of the point with a given standard deviation . We focus on studying the differences between persistence metrics along interpolants of natural and adversarial points. We show that adversarial examples have significantly lower persistence than natural examples for large neural networks in the context of the MNIST and ImageNet datasets. We connect this lack of persistence with decision boundary geometry by measuring angles of interpolants with respect to decision boundaries. Finally, we connect this approach with robustness by developing a manifold alignment gradient metric and demonstrating the increase in robustness that can be achieved when training with the addition of this metric.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗