Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “hazard analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Survey of Methods for Assessing Safety Compliance of sUAS BVLOS Operations

To ensure the safety of small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) Beyond Line of Sight (BVLOS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), the FAA offers a guideline on how sUAS operators can demonstrate compliance with FAA rules, including regulations, advisory circulars, policy statements, and acceptable means of compliance (AMOC), using a formal and top-down approach. According to FAA Advisory Circular 23.2010-1, the AMOC refers to “one method, but not the only method, to show compliance with a regulatory requirement.” It is common for regulations to include a performance and safety standard rather than a detailed design or operation requirement, which allows for flexibility in fulfilling the regulatory requirements while still achieving a predetermined level of safety. This technical report explores existing frameworks for sUAS BVLOS safety analysis. It begins by discussing how sUAS BVLOS operations can be strategically deconflicted and then discusses their hazards. The next step is to establish safety assessment methods commonly used by the aviation industry and the FAA, illustrate how these methods can be applied to several safety-critical air traffic systems, and list collision models that the FAA and industry use. This investigation documents the processes for assessing safety risks in sUAS BVLOS operations and will allow sUAS BVLOS operations to be assessed for safety compliance more efficiently.

sUAS BVLOS Operations↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Range Safety Debris Catalog Analysis in Preparation for the Pad Abort One Flight Test

The Pad Abort One flight test of the Orion Abort Flight Test Program is currently under development with the goal of demonstrating the capability of the Launch Abort System. In the event of a launch failure, this system will propel the Crew Exploration Vehicle to safety. An essential component of this flight test is range safety, which ensures the security of range assets and personnel. A debris catalog analysis was done as part of a range safety data package delivered to the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico where the test will be conducted. The analysis discusses the consequences of an overpressurization of the Abort Motor. The resulting structural failure was assumed to create a debris field of vehicle fragments that could potentially pose a hazard to the range. A statistical model was used to assemble the debris catalog of potential propellant fragments. Then, a thermodynamic, energy balance model was applied to the system in order to determine the imparted velocity to these propellant fragments. This analysis was conducted at four points along the flight trajectory to better understand the failure consequences over the entire flight. The methods used to perform this analysis are outlined in detail and the corresponding results are presented and discussed.

Kutty, Prasad M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An analysis of ullage heat transfer in the orbital refueling system

The Orbital Refueling System was an experiment flown on Shuttle Mission STS 41-G in October, 1984. Liquid hydrazine fuel was transferred back and forth from one spherical bladder tank to another using pressurized nitrogen as the driving force. Compressive heating of the ullage gas in the receiving tank could lead to a hazardous situation if any hydrazine leaked through to the ullage side of the bladder and was heated above about 175 F, where it can undergo spontaneous exothermic decomposition. Early analysis of the flight data indicated that the ullage compression process was much closer to an isothermal than an adiabatic one. In this study, a thorough review of the pertinent literature was used to make an a priori best-estimate for the ullage gas heat transfer coefficient (defining the Nusselt Number as a function of Reynolds and Rayleigh Numbers). Experimental data from the flight were analyzed in detail. It is evident that there is considerably more heat transfer than can be accounted for by conduction alone, but the observed increases do not correlate well with Reynolds Number, Rayleigh Number or vehicle acceleration. There are large gaps in the present understanding of convective heat transfer in closed containers with internal heat generation, especially in the presence of vibrations or other random disturbances. A program of experiments to fill in these gaps is suggested, covering both ground and orbital environments.

Kauffman, D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Raman and Turbidity Probe for Real-Time Analysis of Variable Turbidity Streams

We know that real-time and in situ process monitoring is a powerful tool that can empower operators of hazardous processes to better understand and control their chemical systems without increased risk to themselves. However, applying monitoring techniques to complex chemical processes can face challenges. An example of this is the application of optical spectroscopy, otherwise capable of providing detailed chemical composition information, to processes exhibiting variable turbidity. Here, details on a novel combined Raman spectroscopy and turbidimetry probe are discussed. Furthermore, the analytical approach to accurately account for both Raman signal and turbidity while quantifying chemical targets is detailed. Through leveraging Raman and turbidity data simultaneously collected from the combined probe within chemometric models, accurate quantification of multiple chemical targets can be achieved under conditions of variable concentrations and turbidity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Explosive Dispersal of Radiological Material: A Nonparametric Analysis

The National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) is a Department of Energy (DOE) asset that provides guidance on the potential effects of atmospherically released hazards based on dispersion simulation results. Numerical simulation results are compared to well-characterized experimental measurements whenever possible to validate and refine the model predictions. In 2012, such measurements were obtained by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and collaborating organizations for the case of explosively released 140 La – a radioactive isotope with a half-life of 1.6781 days.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Long-term risk analysis associated with nuclear waste disposal in space

An assessment and verification of previous analytic results on the long term risk of earth reentry for hazardous payloads is presented. The two areas were studied: (1) stability of nominal, near-circular storage orbits in the regions between Venus and earth and between earth and Mars, and (2) probability of earth reentry for off-nominal planet-crossing orbits resulting from deployment system failures. In the first area, numerical integrations of the equations of motion are compared with stability predications based on secular perturbation theory. The agreement is good in terms of the heliocentric distances covered and the general behavior of the orbital history, although certain near-resonance situations can lead to difficulty. In the second area, a Monte Carlo simulation of orbital evolution is used and the results compared with Opik's analytic theory of planetary encounters and collision statistics, with data verified to within a close order-of-magnitude.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2013

GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

Precise Point Positioning (PPP)↗
NASA NTRS2013

Human and Robotic Mission to Small Bodies: Mapping, Planning and Exploration

This study investigates the requirements, performs a gap analysis and makes a set of recommendations for mapping products and exploration tools required to support operations and scientific discovery for near- term and future NASA missions to small bodies. The mapping products and their requirements are based on the analysis of current mission scenarios (rendezvous, docking, and sample return) and recommendations made by the NEA Users Team (NUT) in the framework of human exploration. The mapping products that sat- isfy operational, scienti c, and public outreach goals include topography, images, albedo, gravity, mass, density, subsurface radar, mineralogical and thermal maps. The gap analysis points to a need for incremental generation of mapping products from low (flyby) to high-resolution data needed for anchoring and docking, real-time spatial data processing for hazard avoidance and astronaut or robot localization in low gravity, high dynamic environments, and motivates a standard for coordinate reference systems capable of describing irregular body shapes. Another aspect investigated in this study is the set of requirements and the gap analysis for exploration tools that support visualization and simulation of operational conditions including soil interactions, environment dynamics, and communications coverage. Building robust, usable data sets and visualisation/simulation tools is the best way for mission designers and simulators to make correct decisions for future missions. In the near term, it is the most useful way to begin building capabilities for small body exploration without needing to commit to specific mission architectures.

Neffian, Ara V.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/ Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel

Stennis Space Center (SSC), Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) identified particulate emissions and waste generated from the depainting process of steel structures as hazardous materials to be eliminated or reduced. A Potential Alternatives Report, Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternative Low Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, provided a technical analyses of identified alternatives to the current coating removal processes, criteria used to select alternatives for further analysis, and a list of those alternatives recommended for testing. The initial coating removal alternatives list was compiled using literature searches and stakeholder recommendations. The involved project participants initially considered approximately 13 alternatives. In late 2003, core project members selected the following depainting processes to be further evaluated: (1) Plastic Blast Media-Quickstrip(R)-A. (2) Hard Abrasive-Steel-Magic(R). (3) Sponge Blasting-Sponge-Jet(R). (4) Liquid Nitrogen-NItroJet(R). (5) Mechanical Removal with Vacuum Attachment-DESCO and OCM Clean-Air (6) Laser Coating Removal Alternatives were tested in accordance with the Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, and the Field Evaluation Test Plan for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel. Results of the testing are documented in the Joint Test Report. This Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) focuses on the three alternatives (Quickstrip(R)-A, SteelMagic (R), and Sponge-Jet(R)) that were considered viable alternatives for large area operations based on the results of the field demonstration and lab testing. This CBA was created to help participants determine if implementation of the candidate alternatives is economically justified. Each of the alternatives examined reduced Environmental Activity (EA) Costs-those costs associated with complying with environmental regulations. One alternative, Steel-Magic(R), also showed reduced Direct Costs and reduced total costs.

Lewis, Pattie↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fundamentals of Digital Engineering: Designing for Reliability

The concept of designing for reliability will be introduced along with a brief overview of reliability, redundancy and traditional methods of fault tolerance is presented, as applied to current logic devices. The fundamentals of advanced circuit design and analysis techniques will be the primary focus. The introduction will cover the definitions of key device parameters and how analysis is used to prove circuit correctness. Basic design techniques such as synchronous vs asynchronous design, metastable state resolution time/arbiter design, and finite state machine structure/implementation will be reviewed. Advanced topics will be explored such as skew-tolerant circuit design, the use of triple-modular redundancy and circuit hazards, device transients and preventative circuit design, lock-up states in finite state machines generated by logic synthesizers, device transient characteristics, radiation mitigation techniques. worst-case analysis, the use of timing analyzer and simulators, and others. Case studies and lessons learned from spaceflight designs will be given as examples

Katz, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk of Mortality in Family Members of Men Seeking Fertility Assessment

Objective: To assess mortality in family members of men seeking fertility assessment. Subfertility serves as a biomarker for overall somatic health, and poor semen quality is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from chronic conditions. However, it is unclear if these risks extend to family members of men with low sperm count. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Family members, up to third-degree relatives, of men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort who underwent a semen analysis as part of a fertility assessment 1996–2017. Relatives of men with a recorded total sperm count who lived in Utah for ≥1 year 1904–2017 were included in the analysis (N = 22,280 families). Exposure: Individuals were classified by family membership. Families were classified as relatives of azoospermic (0M), oligozoospermic (<39M), or normozoospermic (≥39M) men. The average total sperm count of the proband (male relative) with fertility assessment was also included as a continuous exposure measure. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk by sex, age, and degree of relation: first-, second-, and third-degree. Cox proportional hazard models were used to test the association between fertility classification and mortality, controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year. Results: A total of 666,437 relatives of men with fertility assessment (N deaths = 183,974) were included in the analysis. Relative to normozoospermia families, all-cause mortality risk increased in oligozoospermia families (hazard ratio [HR] oligozoospermia , 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.05). Close relatives, first- (HR oligozoospermia , 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07–1.28) and second-degree relatives (HR azoospermia , 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.20; HR oligozoospermia , 1.05; 95% CI,1.01–1.09), of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men had the highest all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk, including death attributed to cardiovascular disease or congenital birth conditions. Conclusion: Our results suggest that familial all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk differ by fertility phenotype. Families of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men showed significantly increased risk, particularly for close relatives. This study provides further evidence that shared genetic and/or environmental factors could influence both fertility and somatic health.

Male fertility↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discrimination of phosgene from cyanogen chloride in recovered chemical munitions using tagged neutron interrogation with high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy

The Associated Particle technique has recently been utilized with a germanium-based high-resolution $\gamma$-ray spectrometer and assessed for its capability to improve field identification of recovered chemical warfare (CW) materiel through prompt gamma-ray neutron activation analysis (PGNAA) measurements. An accurate chemical identification is necessary for the safe handling, destruction, and disposal of such hazardous items. A particularly challenging pair of CW agents commonly found in recovered munitions are phosgene (CG) and cyanogen chloride (CK), which have two of three elements in common, i.e. chlorine and carbon, but differ in the third being either oxygen or nitrogen. The detection of both latter elements is complicated by high oxygen concentration in the field environment which interferes with the small signal produced from the chemical agents. The matter is further complicated by the precautionary field practice of overpacking recovered munitions with vermiculite in larger steel multiple round containers (MRCs), which places additional oxygen-rich material around the munition while further attenuating an already weak signal emitted from the munition center. Here, this work reports quantitative results from realistic field measurements of CG and CK simulants in mock 4.2-inch mortar rounds overpacked with vermiculite in a large MRC. Results obtained with the AP technique are compared to those obtained with the traditional PGNAA approach for both overpacked- and bare-munition measurements. The AP technique is shown to provide a much more confident discrimination between the two chemicals, particularly for the more challenging field-relevant overpacked measurements, where a significant gain in sensitivity to all the key elements chlorine, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen is achieved.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) is an emerging health concern linked to premature mortality, with jet fuel combustion identified as a significant source of UFPs near airports. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption has the potential to reduce aviation-related UFPs and may particularly benefit populations who reside nearby. However, assessing aviation-specific impacts on health remains challenging due to the lack of tools capable of addressing: fine-scale exposure evaluation, novel ambient pollutants, and groups with increased exposure or susceptibility. We develop and apply a method to estimate reductions in mortality associated with aviation-related UFP reductions at the Seattle-Tacoma (SEA-TAC) International Airport under SAF adoption scenarios, with a focus on near-airport communities. Using UFP exposure surfaces generated from AERMOD modeling, flight count data, and UFP measurements, we evaluated UFP reductions under various control scenarios. We estimated mortality reductions by combining this with population data, baseline mortality, and a hazard ratio of 1.012 (95 % confidence interval: 1.010, 1.015) per interquartile range increment of 2723 particles/cm 3 . Our analysis included 412 census tracts representing almost 1.5 million adults. Baseline aviation-related UFP exposures averaged 1145 (SD: 277) particles/cm 3 . The highest baseline concentrations and subsequent reductions under SAF scenarios were near SEA-TAC. Mortality case reductions averaged between 3.1 (95 % range: 2.5–3.7) for a 5 % UFP reduction to 31.0 (24.6–37.4) for a 50 % reduction, with corresponding mortality rate reductions of 0.2 (0.2–0.3) to 2.1 (1.7–2.5) cases per 100,000 people per year. Mortality rate reductions were larger among populations residing closer to SEA-TAC, including those that were Hispanic or Latino, below-poverty, and did not identify as White. Reducing aviation-related UFPs through SAF adoption could lead to lower mortality, particularly in near-airport communities. This reproducible approach can be adapted to other settings to evaluate health benefits from aviation-related UFP reductions.

Aviation-related air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Performance Assessment of Concrete Structures in Nuclear Installations

Concrete structures in nuclear installations are subject to time-dependent degradation mechanisms that can deteriorate their physical and mechanical properties, potentially exacerbating the risk of structural failure under external forces such as a seismic event. Previous research has extensively investigated the seismic response of nuclear concrete structures and the associated risk, as well as their effect on structural components safety margins. However, substantial work is still necessary to incorporate concrete aging effects into such evaluations. In fact, most models in the literature assume pristine concrete conditions and do not account for the impact of aging on the structural components’ fragility curves. This work identifies relevant time-dependent degradation mechanisms and provides simplified models to predict the the evolution of key material properties based on data from the literature. Namely, this work focuses on the aging effects of corrosion, alkali–silica reaction (ASR), and irradiation on reinforced concrete within US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants (NPP) structures. Furthermore, degradation models based on literature data are presented that define the relationship between probabilistic material properties and the concrete’s age. In this work, sampled material properties served as input for a simplified finite element model (FEM) of a critical nuclear structural system, with the output of the FEM being the seismic response for a given ground motion. The results of the FEM were then used within a probabilistic performance assessment with a statistically significant number of samples. The research presented herein addresses the detrimental effects of hazards caused by natural phenomena on deteriorated concrete elements of nuclear installations. This work directly benefits the safety analysis performed on US DOE/ National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear facilities located in areas prone to seismic activity. The results presented herein could aid in the improvement of DOE-STD-1020, the DOE Standard that addresses seismic risk analysis and capacity evaluation in DOE facilities. DOE-STD-1020 refers to the requirements in American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4-98, now superseded by ASCE 4-16, that shall be met in performing dynamic response analyses and generating in-structure response spectra, provided that such requirements are consistent with the requirements of ASCE/Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) 43-05. Moreover, the results presented herein could also aid in the updating of section C3.1.1. of ASCE 4-16 to account for the effects of aging on the stiffness of reinforced elements and American Concrete Institute (ACI) 349.3R-18, “Report on Evaluation and Repair of Existing Nuclear Safety-Related Concrete Structures.” Ultimately, this work can assist the risk assessment of potential lifetime extension of the existing US commercial nuclear fleet (light water reactors) and the safety analysis of the emerging advanced nuclear reactors. The proposed proof-of-concept methodology employs open-source DOE computational tools and is transferable to commercial software commonly used by engineering firms.

42 ENGINEERING↗