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DOE OSTI2022

Performance of Microreactor Test Article with Embedded Sensors During Testing in The Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator

The nuclear industry is pursuing microreactors that can be factory assembled and deployed to remote regions for reliable power generation. One class of microreactors uses a monolithic metal core block coupled to heat pipes that use passive heat flow, increasing the surface area for heat transfer without requiring active coolant flow through the reactor core. Additional experimental testing is required to understand the heat rejection limitations of heat pipes and thermal stresses in the monolithic core block due to significant temperature gradients. This report describes the initial characterization and testing of a stainless-steel test article that was fabricated with embedded sensors to measure heat pipe performance limits, as well as spatially distributed temperatures and strains during electrically heated thermal testing to simulate nuclear heating. The electrically heated testing was performed in the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator facility located at Idaho National Laboratory. The ultimate goals of this work are to (1) accurately monitor temperature and strain distributions that result from differential thermal expansion in the test articles and (2) quantify the heat rejection limits of heat pipes as a function of operating temperature and working fluid during steady-state and transient operations. Initial tests focused on the feasibility of using advanced fiber-optic sensors and other sensor technologies to improve the understanding of temperature and strain distributions within the electrically heated experiments. However, these sensing capabilities could benefit the broader microreactor community if the sensors could be used to monitor component and system health during nuclear operations to inform a limited number of microreactor operators, ultimately reducing operation and maintenance costs and moving toward semiautonomous operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Digital image processing on a small computer system

A minicomputer-based image processing facility provides a relatively low-cost entry point for education about image analysis applications in remote sensing. While a minicomputer has sufficient processing power to produce results quite rapidly for low volumes of small images, it does not have sufficient power to perform CPU- or 1/0-bound tasks on large images. A system equipped with a display terminal is ideally suited for interactive tasks. Software procurement is a limiting factor for most end users, and software availability may well be the overriding consideration in selecting a particular hardware configuration. The hardware chosen should be selected to be compatible with the software and with concern for future expansion.

Danielson, R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low Cost (CAPEX and variable): Tool design for cell and module fabrication with thin, free-standing silicon wafers

This project aimed to develop technologies that can potentially enable free-standing thin (<80 μm) wafer in today’s manufacturing lines with high production yield, and thereby reduce capex barriers of silicon photovoltaics cells and modules. One of the major benefits is that thin wafer dramatically reduces the amount of polysilicon required. As a result, it can lead to reduction in the capital expenditures associated with polysilicon refining and wafer fabrication, which together are more than half of the total capital expenditure to manufacture Si PV module. We focused our efforts on developing the tools needed to enable high yield fabrication of wafer, cell, and module with thin silicon wafers. However, as the wafer thickness reduces, the major challenge is that wafer breakage increases significantly. Three technological areas were explored in this project to improve the production yield of the silicon wafer, namely detection of edge cracks via dark-field near-infrared (NIR) scattering; (2) wafer handling using controlled temperature profiles; (3) manufacturable low-stress cell interconnection for multiwire. First, the formation of wafer cracks in submillimeter length is one of the reasons that causes wafer breakages. Crack detection tools are needed to enable us to locate and track the wafer crack during manufacturing, so that we can improve the process to reduce initialization. The state-of-the-art crack detection technique cannot fulfill the need for measuring submillimeter edge cracks detrimental for thin wafers. The prototype developed in this project demonstrates the scanning of microcracks near wafer edges. With a semi-automatic laboratory setup, the submillimeter cracks were reliably detected near the edges in multi-Si wafers. The smallest detectable crack is 200 µm in length in slow scans; and submillimeter cracks are detected in high-throughput scans at the scan speed of >0.5 m/s, which is compatible with the inline detection of a manufacturing line at least 1 sec/wafer. This detection limit is a significant advancement in comparison to the benchmarked industrial tool. Second, wafer handling with the well-controlled temperature profile was thought to be the solution to reduce crack initiation and propagation during the manufacturing. However, without crack detection being widely adopted in production line, we did not find a strong industrial pull toward this technology. We did an initial literature survey and then diverted our efforts to the other tasks. Third, the innovation on low-stress multi-wire interconnection tackles a fundamental problem in the standard interconnection scheme. The standard over-under “zig-zag” interconnection induces a significant amount of stress into the soldering point on the cell whenever PV module is under stress, e.g., thermal cycling, transportation, and installation. Therefore, the interconnection process was re-designed in this project to allow for significant movement between adjacent solar cells, e.g., due to thermal expansion, without building up stresses on the solar cells or solder joints. The new interconnection method with the cross-connect wire also simplifies the tabbing and stringing process by replacing the standard over-under method with an off-cell interconnect from top to bottom. A manual tabbing and stringing tool for this new process was prototyped in the lab to demonstrate the fabrication of this new interconnection design. During the test with brass sheets as our “testing cells”, it was found that the mechanical cycling test only broke the interconnection after more than 50,000 cycles, which is equivalent to more than 130 years of the day-and-night thermal cycles. Lastly, throughout the project, we continuously analyzed the PV market with techno-economic analysis to identify the opportunity for thin Si adoption. Even though the drastic cost reduction has already happened in the past five years, our analysis results indicated that we can still save quite significantly in both manufacturing cost and factory capex, Particularly, in order to grow the PV manufacturing capacity to multi-terawatt level, reducing the thickness of silicon wafer is one of the most effective ways to quickly reduce factory capex, and sustain the high growth rate. The technologies developed in this project are readily available to provide some assistances in tackling the production yield problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ionic/electronic conductivity regulation of n-type polyoxadiazole lithium sulfonate conductive polymer binders for high-performance silicon microparticle anodes

Low-cost silicon microparticles (SiMP), as a substitute for nanostructured silicon, easily suffer from cracks and fractured during the electrochemical cycle. A novel n-type conductive polymer binder with excellent electronic and ionic conductivities as well as good adhesion, has been successfully designed and applied for high-performance SiMP anodes in lithium-ion batteries to address this problem. Its unique features are attributed to the strong electron-withdrawing oxadiazole ring structure with sulfonate polar groups. The combination of rigid and flexible components in the polymer ensures its good mechanical strength and ductility, which is beneficial to suppress the expansion and contraction of SiMP s during the charge/discharge process. By fine-tuning the monomer ratio, the conjugation and sulfonation degrees of the polymer can be precisely controlled to regulate its ionic and electronic conductivities, which has been systematically analyzed with the help of an electrochemical test method, filling in the gap on the conductivity measurement of the polymer in the doping state. The experimental results indicate that the cell with the developed n-type polymer binder and SiMP (~0.5 μm) anodes achieves much better cycling performance than traditional non-conductive binders. It has been considered that the initial capacity of the SiMP anode is controlled by the synergetic effect of ionic and electronic conductivity of the binder, and the capacity retention mainly depends on its electronic conductivity when the ionic conductivity is sufficient. Here, it is worth noting that the fundamental research of this work is also applicable to other battery systems using conductive polymers in order to achieve high energy density, broadening their practical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pitfalls in the n -mode representation of vibrational potentials

Simulations of anharmonic vibrational motion rely on computationally expedient representations of the governing potential energy surface. The n-mode representation (n-MR)—effectively a many-body expansion in the space of molecular vibrations—is a general and efficient approach that is often used for this purpose in vibrational self-consistent field (VSCF) calculations and correlated analogues thereof. In the present analysis, a lack of convergence in many VSCF calculations is shown to originate from negative and unbound potentials at truncated orders of the n-MR expansion. For cases of strong anharmonic coupling between modes, the n-MR can both dip below the true global minimum of the potential surface and lead to effective single-mode potentials in VSCF that do not correspond to bound vibrational problems, even for bound total potentials. The present analysis serves mainly as a pathology report of this issue. Furthermore, this insight into the origin of VSCF non-convergence provides a simple, albeit ad hoc, route to correct the problem by “painting in” the full representation of groups of modes that exhibit these negative potentials at little additional computational cost. Somewhat surprisingly, this approach also reasonably approximates the results of the next-higher n-MR order and identifies groups of modes with particularly strong coupling. The method is shown to identify and correct problematic triples of modes—and restore SCF convergence—in two-mode representations of challenging test systems, including the water dimer and trimer, as well as protonated tropine.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermophilic Geobacillus WSUCF1 Secretome for Saccharification of Ammonia Fiber Expansion and Extractive Ammonia Pretreated Corn Stover

A thermophilic Geobacillus bacterial strain, WSUCF1 contains different carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes) capable of hydrolyzing hemicellulose in lignocellulosic biomass. We used proteomic, genomic, and bioinformatic tools, and genomic data to analyze the relative abundance of cellulolytic, hemicellulolytic, and lignin modifying enzymes present in the secretomes. Results showed that CAZyme profiles of secretomes varied based on the substrate type and complexity, composition, and pretreatment conditions. The enzyme activity of secretomes also changed depending on the substrate used. The secretomes were used in combination with commercial and purified enzymes to carry out saccharification of ammonia fiber expansion (AFEX)-pretreated corn stover and extractive ammonia (EA)-pretreated corn stover. When WSUCF1 bacterial secretome produced at different conditions was combined with a small percentage of commercial enzymes, we observed efficient saccharification of EA-CS, and the results were comparable to using a commercial enzyme cocktail (87% glucan and 70% xylan conversion). It also opens the possibility of producing CAZymes in a biorefinery using inexpensive substrates, such as AFEX-pretreated corn stover and Avicel, and eliminates expensive enzyme processing steps that are used in enzyme manufacturing. Implementing in-house enzyme production is expected to significantly reduce the cost of enzymes and biofuel processing cost.

Bhalla, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating Sodium-Sulfur Battery Chemistry using Operando Transmission X-ray Microscopy and X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Room-temperature sodium-sulfur (Na-S) batteries offer a beneficial and cost-effective solution for powering modern electric grids and devices. However, Na-S batteries suffer from performance decay during battery cycling due to the sluggish kinetics and polysulfide shuttling. Revealing the conversion mechanism of the Na-S chemistry is critical to designing high-capacity and stable Na-S batteries. In this study, we employed operando X-ray microscopy and operando X-ray absorption spectroscopy to elucidate the sulfur conversion in a carbon host using an ether-based electrolyte. We reveal the structural and chemical evolution of the sulfur cathode during cycling, which results in volume expansion and the dissolution of active material, ultimately affecting the battery performance. Our work provides fundamental insight into the sulfur reaction scheme, addressing the lingering challenges before establishing inexpensive Na-S batteries for broad applications, including portable electronics and large-scale energy storage.

Jagadeesan, Sathya Narayanan [SLAC National Accele↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Demonstration of Power over Ethernet (PoE) Technologies in Commercial and Institutional Buildings

Power over Ethernet (PoE) technologies are currently ubiquitous in offices in the form of phones, access points, and IP security cameras. They are systems that are familiar to and managed by on-site IT staff. As low voltage DC-power capabilities have increased with the advancement of IT network switches within offices, PoE devices are now being integrated across additional building systems, including lighting, computers, and HVAC controls. The connection of PoE devices to network switches offers the opportunity for energy monitoring and management to be performed through IT network management software. Data and results from technology validations of PoE equipment remain very limited. This lack of information hinders expansion of PoE as an energy management strategy as its benefits and challenges have been insufficiently quantified in real-world scenarios. This final report presents the findings of a DOE/State of Minnesota-funded project that demonstrated and assessed the energy and non-energy benefits of Power over Ethernet (PoE) technologies at six sites: two offices, three schools, and a hotel. The goals of the demonstrations were to: (1) assess the receptiveness of commercial and institutional markets to these new technologies, (2) demonstrate the feasibility of PoE technologies within standard design/construction practices and commercial codes, (3) assess the energy and cost savings opportunities of these technologies, (4) provide energy management opportunities where not typically available, and (5) formulate approaches to spur adoption of these technologies in the marketplace.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2016

Commercial Application of In-Space Assembly

In-Space assembly (ISA) expands the opportunities for cost effective emplacement of systems in space. Currently, spacecraft are launched into space and deploy into their operational configuration through a carefully choreographed sequence of operations. The deployment operation dictates the arrangement of the primary systems on the spacecraft, limiting the ability to take full advantage of launch vehicles volume and mass capability. ISA enables vastly different spacecraft architectures and emplacement scenarios to be achieved, including optimal launch configurations ranging from single launch and assembly to on-orbit aggregation of multiple launches at different orbital locations and times. The spacecraft can be visited at different orbital locations and times to effect expansion and maintenance of an operational capability. To date, the primary application of ISA has been in large programs funded by government organizations, such as the International Space Station. Recently, Space Systems Loral (SSL) led a study funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), called Dragonfly, to investigate the commercial applicability and economic advantages of ISA. In the study, it was shown that ISA enables SSL to double the capability of a commercial satellite system by taking advantage of alternate packaging approaches for the reflectors. The study included an ultra-light-weight robotic system, derived from Mars manipulator designs, to complete assembly of portions of the antenna system using a tool derived from DARPA orbital express and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) automated structural assembly experience. The mechanical connector that enables robotic ISA takes advantage of decades of development by NASA from the 1970's to 1980's during the Space Station Freedom program, the precursor to the ISS. The mechanical connector was originally designed for rapid astronaut assembly while also providing a high quality structural connection with linear load deflection response. The paper will discuss the business case for ISA, the general approach taken to exploit on-orbit assembly in the GEO communication satellite market, and the concept of operations associated with the ISA approach, thus laying the foundation for ISA to become an accepted operational approach for commercial in-space operations.

Lymer, John↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental study of a thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting in space cooling and heating

This study experimentally investigates an all-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system developed to enhance building energy efficiency and support grid-interactive operation through load shifting in both cooling and heating. A 4-ton commercial rooftop air-source heat pump was modified by integrating a hydronic thermal energy storage (TES) unit containing a phase change material (PCM) with a melting temperature of 22.0 °C. The system employs two reversing valves and three electronic expansion valves to enable six operating modes, including normal, TES charging, and TES discharging in both cooling and heating seasons. A subcooling-controlled electronic expansion valve was implemented to mitigate refrigerant maldistribution caused by unequal internal volumes among the heat exchangers. Compared with a baseline heat pump, the TES-HP reduced power consumption by 30–50% during cooling at an ambient temperature of 40.6 °C, and by up to 60% during heating at −15.0 °C, while maintaining high performance under cold-climate conditions. Additionaly to experimental evaluation, a simplified annualized on-peak analysis was conducted to compare the TES-HP with the baseline system, indicating an on-peak electricity reduction of approximately 876 kWhₑ per unit per year and associated on-peak cost savings under time-of-use pricing. These results demonstrate that the TES-HP effectively decouples HP operation from adverse ambient conditions, improving flexibility, resilience, and energy efficiency. This work advances prior research by experimentally proving the integration of PCM-based TES for a year-round, load-flexible HVAC operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate economic welfare and health incidence across demographic groups. We evaluate trade-offs between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies. The tax credits encourage increased clean electricity investment, resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for economic welfare at the expense of efficiency while all modeled policies demonstrate progressivity in health impacts. The health benefits, absent climate benefits, exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically marginalized households given coincidence of household locations and emissions exposure intensity.

distributional impacts↗

NASA NTRS1979

Potential applications of advanced aircraft in developing countries

Air transportation concepts for movement of cargo in developing countries are reviewed using aicraft which may appear in the future. For certain industrial applications, including mining and forestry, the relative costs of doing the job using different types of aircraft are compared with surface transportation systems. Two developing countries, Brazil and Indonesia, were taken as examples to determine what impact they might have on the aircraft markets of the future. Economic and demographic data on developing countries in general, and Brazil and Indonesia in particular, are reviewed. The concept of an industrial city in a remote area developed around an airport is discussed. It is noted that developing areas generally lack extensive surface transportation systems and that an air transportation system can be implemented in a relatively short time. A developing nation interested in rapid expansion may thus find the role of air cargo far more important than has been true in developed nations. Technological developments which may dramatically increase the performance of agricultural aircraft are also reviewed.

Maddalon, D. V.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Hypersonic airbreathing propulsion/airframe integration

Recent interest in airbreathing hypersonic flight has centered around the need to develop advanced space launch systems which can reduce the cost of inserting payloads in orbit and make space more accessible. An effect of the thermal environment is to require the vehicle to operate at high altitudes, in very thin air, to maintain aircraft structural load limits. The high altitudes at which the hypersonic vehicle must operate give rise to the concept of an airframe integrated propulsion system to provide a much larger inlet and nozzle to process the required volume of air at low density, atmospheric conditions. In the integrated system, the forward portion of the vehicle compresses the air flow and serves as the external portion of the inlet; the aftbody completes the expansion process for the nozzle. In addition, the engine, which is contained between the body and the forebody shock wave, lends itself to a modular integration of a number of separate engines. In this manner, a relatively small engine can be defined to allow engine development in existing ground facilities.

Weidner, John P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The reservoir network: A new network topology for district heating and cooling

Thermal district networks are effective solutions to substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy sources for heating and cooling. Moreover, thermal networking of buildings allows energy efficiency to be further increased. The waste heat from cooling can be reused for heating in thermal district systems. Because of bidirectional energy flows between prosumers, thermal networks require new hydraulic concepts. In this work, we present a novel network topology for simultaneous heating and cooling: the reservoir network. The reservoir network is robust in operation due to hydraulic decoupling of transfer stations, integrates heat sources and heat sinks at various temperature levels and is flexible in terms of network expansion. Furthermore, we used Modelica simulations to compare the new single-pipe reservoir network to a basecase double-pipe network, taking yearly demand profiles of different building types for heating and cooling. The electric energy consumed by the heat pumps and circulations pumps differs between the reservoir and base case networks by less than 1%. However, if the reservoir network is operated with constant instead of variable mass flow rate, the total electrical consumption can increase by 48% compared to the base case. As with any other network topology, the design and control of such networks is crucial to achieving energy efficient operation. Investment costs for piping and trenching depend on the district layout and dimensioning of the network. If a ring layout is applied in a district, the reservoir network with its single-pipe configuration is more economical than other topologies. For a linear layout, the piping costs are slightly higher for the reservoir network than for the base case because of larger pipe diameters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tailoring composition and deformation modes at the microstructural level for next generation low-cost high-strength austenitic stainless steels

The objective of this project is to enable deliberate development of cost-effective, hydrogen resistant alloys by establishing detailed relationships specific to the effects of alloy composition, short-range order (SRO), and microsegregation in the presence of hydrogen on the transition between homogeneous deformation and localized plasticity in shear bands. In collaboration with the International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research, I2CNER, at Kyushu University in Japan, we conceptualized, designed, and manufactured four austenitic alloys that maintain corrosion resistance and ensure lower cost relative to baseline commercial alloys. The mechanical properties and deformation modes of the novel alloys (KU alloys) were assessed in the presence of hydrogen (H). Correlations between composition and performance revealed that two of the KU alloys are suitable replacements for 316 steel, while another is a viable replacement for 304 steel at room temperature. We found that, in the presence of other austenite stabilizing elements namely Mn and N, replacing Ni with Cu does not lead to martensite formation as has been previously reported.1–3 Furthermore, we found that the addition of Cu leads to an earlier onset of multiple slip resulting in an relative earlier onset of a higher work hardening rate (WHR). Greater understanding of the relationships between alloy composition and SRO required the development of a novel advanced electron diffraction methodology to characterize SRO in complex FCC alloys. This innovative approach, which combines fluctuation and correlation analyses of diffuse-scattering signals, successfully differentiated between SRO and long-range ordering (LRO). Further investigations into annealed austenitic stainless steels could provide insights into manipulating SRO and its effects on material properties. Atomistic simulations provided understanding of SRO behavior that was difficult to capture experimentally. This project created the first spin cluster expansion model that is able to capture and describe SRO effects in Fe-Ni-Cr FCC alloys, accounting for the non-negligible effects of magnetism. An automated computational workflow was established to provide reliable predictions of SRO in Fe-Ni-Cr austenitic alloys, both with and without the presence of H atoms. Analysis of the propensity for SRO in Fe-Ni-Cr alloys revealed that H tends to cluster with specific, well-defined SRO domains. The computational framework is general purpose and can be extended to realistic stainless steels across diverse composition ranges. With confidence that SRO is possible in austenitic stainless steels, we developed a discrete dislocation finite element code to understand the interaction of dislocations with SRO in the presence of H. By incorporating H effects on the dislocation emission and SRO stress field we show that the critical stress for the dislocation pileup to breakthrough the SRO domain decreases in the presence of H, which directly contributes localized deformation at the macroscale. Through the simulation of a uniaxial tension test, we demonstrated that H-induced weakening of SRO stress field and H-enhanced dislocation emission can lead to the onset of shear localization at lower macroscopic strains. As a whole, this project identified three novel alloys that show improvements in performance and cost efficiency for H-facing applications by studying correlations between alloy chemistry and deformation behavior. We also made significant advancements to experimental and computational methodologies necessary to study the chemistry and distribution of SRO across a range of alloys, which in turn allowed us to demonstrate how deformation mechanisms change due to the contributions of SRO in austenitic alloys in the presence of H. The combined advancements in fundamental understanding with novel alloy development in this project has increased the viability of next generation H-technologies for the broader public through accessible low-cost alloys and accelerated development towards future H-infrastructure.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Battery Performance and Cost Model (BatPaC) Version 6.0

SF-26-016 The Battery Performance and Cost model (BatPaC) is a calculation method based on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that has been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and pure electrics. BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. BatPaC has been updated and re-released multiple times since its original public release in 2011. This current version is BatPaC 6.0, which contains additional functionality needed to handle advances in automotive batteries, like the use of lithium metal and silicon anodes and the need to accommodate cell expansion and apply high levels of pressure.

KNEHR, KEVIN [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗