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DOE OSTI2019

From Battery Cell to Electrodes: Real-time Estimation of Charge and Health of Individual Battery Electrodes

Correct information of battery internal variables is crucial for health-conscious and optimal battery management. Because of lack of measurements, advanced Battery Management Systems (BMS) rely heavily on estimation algorithms that provide such internal information. Although algorithms for cell-level charge and health estimation have been widely explored in literature, algorithms for electrode-level quantities are almost non-existent. The main obstacle in electrode-level estimation is the observability problem where the individual electrode states are not observable from terminal voltage output. However, if available, real-time feedback of electrode-level charge and health can be highly beneficial in maximizing energy utilization and battery life. Motivated by this scenario, we propose a real-time algorithm that estimates the available charge and health of individual electrodes. We halt the aforementioned observability problem by proposing an uncertain model-based cascaded estimation framework. The design and analysis of the proposed scheme are aided by a combination of Lyapunov's stability theory, adaptive observer theory, and interconnected systems theory. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of the estimation scheme by performing extensive simulation and experimental studies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the common-cause failure (CCF) data collection effort (which included data through 2020) and summarizes the results of the parameter estimation quantification process performed on CCF data in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database. This is the 2020 update to NUREG/CR-5497, updating data and parameter estimations for CCFs. This release, CCF Parameter Estimation 2020, reflects the CCF data contained within the CCF database, https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx, by executing (in August 2021) the CCF query rules in the folder SPAR Rules 2020. The data covers the period from 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2020, the most recent 15-year period in which data are available. The use of the most recent rolling 15-year data in parameter estimation differs from previous updates, in which 1/1/1997 was used as the starting date (e.g., 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2015 for the 2015 update, 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2012 for the 2012 update). The new date range (i.e., the most recent 15-year period), was selected for this CCF update so as to be consistent with the date range chosen for the component reliability parameter estimation, and with the effort to include sufficient data for analysis while simultaneously reflecting the most recent industry performance. These results are appropriate for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies, including the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. This update may be referred as: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update," https://nrcoe.inl.gov/publicdocs/CCF/ccfparamest2020.pdf, November 2021.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted dataset is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Review and Outlook on Energy Consumption Estimation Models for Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) are critical to the transition to a low-carbon transportation system. The successful adoption of EVs heavily depends on energy consumption models that can accurately and reliably estimate electricity consumption. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of EV energy consumption models, aiming to provide guidance for future development of EV applications. Here, we summarize influential variables of EV energy consumption into four categories: vehicle component, vehicle dynamics, traffic and environment related factors. We classify and discuss EV energy consumption models in terms of modeling scale (microscopic vs. macroscopic) and methodology (data-driven vs. rule-based). Our review shows trends of increasing macroscopic models that can be used to estimate trip-level EV energy consumption and increasing data-driven models that utilized machine learning technologies to estimate EV energy consumption based on large volume real-world data. We identify research gaps for EV energy consumption models, including the development of energy estimation models for modes other than personal vehicles (e.g., electric buses, electric trucks, and electric non-road vehicles); the development of energy estimation models that are suitable for applications related to vehicle-to-grid integration; and the development of multi-scale energy estimation models as a holistic modeling approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the current state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Center of Mass Estimation for a Spinning Spacecraft Using Doppler Shift of the GPS Carrier Frequency

A sequential filter is presented for estimating the center of mass (CM) of a spinning spacecraft using Doppler shift data from a set of onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is passive and can be run continuously in the background without using commanded thruster firings to excite spacecraft dynamical motion for observability. The NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is used as a test case for the CM estimator. The four MMS spacecraft carry star cameras for accurate attitude and spin rate estimation. The angle between the spacecraft nominal spin axis (for MMS this is the geometric body Z-axis) and the major principal axis of inertia is called the coning angle. The transverse components of the estimated rate provide a direct measure of the coning angle. The coning angle has been seen to shift slightly after every orbit and attitude maneuver. This change is attributed to a small asymmetry in the fuel distribution that changes with each burn. This paper shows a correlation between the apparent mass asymmetry deduced from the variations in the coning angle and the CM estimates made using the GPS Doppler data. The consistency between the changes in the coning angle and the CM provides validation of the proposed GPS Doppler method for estimation of the CM on spinning spacecraft.

Estimation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Multi-Pass Sequential Mini-Batch Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithms for Noise Covariance Estimation in Adaptive Kalman Filtering

Estimation of unknown noise covariances in a Kalman filter is a problem of significant practical interest in a wide array of applications. Although this problem has a long history, reliable algorithms for their estimation were scant, and necessary and sufficient conditions for identifiability of the covariances were in dispute until recently. Necessary and sufficient conditions for covariance estimation and a batch estimation algorithm were presented in our previous study. This paper presents stochastic gradient descent algorithms for noise covariance estimation in adaptive Kalman filters that are an order of magnitude faster than the batch method for similar or better root mean square error. More significantly, these algorithms are applicable to non-stationary systems where the noise covariances can occasionally jump up or down by an unknown magnitude. The computational efficiency of the new algorithms stems from adaptive thresholds for convergence, recursive fading memory estimation of the sample cross-correlations of the innovations, and accelerated stochastic gradient descent algorithms. The comparative evaluation of the proposed methods on a number of test cases demonstrates their computational efficiency and accuracy.

Adaptive Kalman filtering↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of a Trip Energy Estimation Model Using Real-World Global Positioning System Driving Data: Preprint

A data-driven technique for estimation of energy requirements for a proposed vehicle trip has been developed. Based on over 700,000 miles of driving data, the technique has been applied to generate a model that estimates trip energy requirements. The model uses a novel binning approach to categorize driving by road type, traffic conditions, and driving profile. The trip-level energy estimations can easily be aggregated to any higher-level transportation system network desired. The model has been tested and validated on the Austin, Texas, data set used to build this model. Ground-truth energy consumption for the data set was obtained from Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) vehicle simulation results. The energy estimation model has demonstrated 12.1 percent normalized total absolute error. The energy estimation from the model can be used to inform control strategies in routing tools, such as change in departure time, alternate routing, and alternate destinations, to reduce energy consumption. The model can also be used to determine more accurate energy consumption of regional or national transportation networks if trip origin and destinations are known. Additionally, this method allows the estimation tool to be tuned to a specific driver or vehicle type.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sample Complexity of Power System State Estimation using Matrix Completion: Preprint

In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to quantify the amount of data samples needed to obtain accurate state estimation in a power system-a problem known as \emph{sample complexity} analysis in computer science. Motivated by the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources into the distribution-level grids, it becomes imperative to estimate the state of distribution grids in order to ensure stable operation. Traditional power system state estimation techniques mainly focus on the transmission network which involve solving an overdetermined system and eliminating bad data. However, distribution networks are typically \emph{underdetermined} due to the large number of connection points and high cost of pervasive installation of measurement devices. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed state-estimation method for underdetermined systems that is based on \emph{matrix completion}. In particular, a \emph{constrained} matrix completion algorithm was proposed, wherein the standard matrix completion problem is augmented with additional equality constraints representing the physics (namely power-flow constraints). We analyze the sample complexity of this general method by proving an upper bound on the sample complexity that depends directly on the properties of these constraints that can lower number of needed samples as compared to the unconstrained problem. To demonstrate the improvement that the constraints add to state estimation, we test the method on a 141-bus distribution network case study and compare it to the traditional least squares minimization state estimation method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements: Preprint

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synchrophasors-based Master State Awareness Estimator for Cybersecurity in Power Grid: Testbed Implementation & Field Demonstration

The integration of distributed energy resources(DERs) and expansion of complex network in the distribution grid requires an advanced distributed state estimator to monitor the grid health at micro-level. The distribution state estimator will improve the situational awareness and resiliency of distributed power system. This paper proposes a synchrophasors-based master state awareness (MSA) estimator to enhance the cybersecurity in distribution grid by providing a real-time estimation of system operating states to control center operators. In this paper, the proposed MSA estimator utilizes only phasor measurements, bus magnitudes and angles, from phasor measurement units (PMUs),deployed in local substations, to estimate the system states and also detects data integrity attacks, such as load tripping attack that disconnects the load. To validate the proof of concept, we implement the proposed methodology in cyber-physical testbed environment at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Electric Grid Security Testbed. Further, to address the “valley of death” and support technology commercialization, field demonstration is also performed at the Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex(CITRC) at the INL. Our experimental results reveal a promising performance in detecting load tripping attack and providing an accurate situational awareness through an alert visualization dashboard in real-time

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900–2006

While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100 years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20th century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE–MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900–1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE–MSN is 0.80°C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41°C and 1.18°C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimating groundwater dynamics at a Colorado River floodplain site using historical hydrological data and climate information

Long-term prediction of groundwater dynamics is important for assessing water resources and their impacts on biogeochemical cycling. However, estimating future groundwater dynamics is challenging due to the wide range of spatiotemporal scales in hydrological processes and uncertainty in future climate conditions. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to combine small-scale historical hydrological data with large-scale climate information to estimate groundwater dynamics at a floodplain site in Rifle, Colorado. Although we have only a few years of groundwater elevation measurements, we have 47 years of streamflow data from a gaging station approximately 43 km upstream and long-term climate prediction on the Upper Colorado River Basin. To estimate future daily groundwater dynamics, we first develop a time series model to downscale the monthly streamflow derived from climate information to daily streamflow, and then transform the daily streamflow to groundwater dynamics at the downstream floodplain site. We use Monte Carlo methods to estimate future groundwater dynamics at the site through sampling from the joint posterior probability distribution. The results suggest that although future groundwater levels are expected to be similar to the current levels, the timing of the high groundwater levels is predicted to occur about 1 month earlier. The developed framework is extendable to other sites to estimate future groundwater dynamics given disparate data sets and climate projections. Additionally, the obtained estimates are being used as input to a site-specific watershed reactive transport models to predict how climate-induced changes will influence future biogeochemical cycling relevant to a variety of ecosystem services.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Comparison of Big-Leaf, Two-Big-Leaf, and Two-Leaf Upscaling Schemes for Evapotranspiration Estimation Using Coupled Carbon-Water Modeling

Evapotranspiration (ET) is commonly estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation, which assumes that the plant canopy is a big leaf (BL) and the water flux from vegetation is regulated by canopy stomatal conductance (G s ). However, BL has been found to be unsuitable for terrestrial biosphere models built on the carbon-water coupling principle because it fails to capture daily variations of gross primary productivity (GPP). A two-big-leaf scheme (TBL) and a two-leaf scheme (TL) that stratify a canopy into sunlit and shaded leaves have been developed to address this issue. However, there is a lack of comparison of these upscaling schemes for ET estimation, especially on the difference between TBL and TL. We find that TL shows strong performance (r 2 = 0.71, root-mean-square error = 0.05 mm/h) in estimating ET at nine eddy covariance towers in Canada. BL simulates lower annual ET and GPP than TL and TBL. The biases of estimated ET and GPP increase with leaf area index (LAI) in BL and TBL, and the biases of TL show no trends with LAI. BL miscalculates the portions of light-saturated and light-unsaturated leaves in the canopy, incurring negative biases in its flux estimation. TBL and TL showed improved yet different GPP and ET estimations. This difference is attributed to the lower Gsand intercellular CO 2 concentration simulated in TBL compared to their counterparts in TL. Finally, we suggest to use TL for ET modeling to avoid the uncertainty propagated from the artificial upscaling of leaf-level processes to the canopy scale in BL and TBL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons

Abstract In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge‐based, satellite‐related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high‐latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

A new approach to estimate fecundity rate from inter‐birth intervals

Abstract Accurate estimates of fecundity rate are key to population assessments and effectively direct conservation efforts. We present a new approach to estimate fecundity rate based on the probability of a female giving birth, conditional on a previous birth t years ago, from which an expected inter‐birth interval ( IBI ) can be estimated. We use generalized linear mixed‐effects models to account for individual and temporal variability and apply the approach to individual reproductive histories of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) from the east coast of Scotland. We estimate a fecundity rate of 0.222 (95% CI = 0.218–0.253) and an expected IBI of 4.49 yr (95% CI = 3.94–4.93 yr). We use simulated data samples to show that the approach produces estimates with a minimum bias of <3%. Simulations are also used to investigate the effect of the most common data‐driven biases in the estimates of birth intervals and fecundity rate; we recommend longitudinal studies of at least 10 yr and capture probabilities of at least 0.3 when using this methodology. The approach may be modified to incorporate other parameters of interest and should be applicable to any population with comprehensive data on birth intervals.

Arso Civil, Mònica↗