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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DESI N -body simulation project – I. Testing the robustness of simulations for the DESI dark time survey

ABSTRACT Analysis of large galaxy surveys requires confidence in the robustness of numerical simulation methods. The simulations are used to construct mock galaxy catalogues to validate data analysis pipelines and identify potential systematics. We compare three N-body simulation codes, abacus, gadget-2, and swift, to investigate the regimes in which their results agree. We run N-body simulations at three different mass resolutions, 6.25 × 108, 2.11 × 109, and 5.00 × 109 h−1 M⊙, matching phases to reduce the noise within the comparisons. We find systematic errors in the halo clustering between different codes are smaller than the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) statistical error for $s\ \gt\ 20\ h^{-1}$ Mpc in the correlation function in redshift space. Through the resolution comparison we find that simulations run with a mass resolution of 2.1 × 109 h−1 M⊙ are sufficiently converged for systematic effects in the halo clustering to be smaller than the DESI statistical error at scales larger than $20\ h^{-1}$ Mpc. These findings show that the simulations are robust for extracting cosmological information from large scales which is the key goal of the DESI survey. Comparing matter power spectra, we find the codes agree to within 1 per cent for k ≤ 10 h Mpc−1. We also run a comparison of three initial condition generation codes and find good agreement. In addition, we include a quasi-N-body code, FastPM, since we plan use it for certain DESI analyses. The impact of the halo definition and galaxy–halo relation will be presented in a follow-up study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fringing Analysis and Simulation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time

Abstract The presence of fringing in astronomical Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) images will have an impact on photometric quality and measurements. Yet its impact on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has not been fully studied. We present a detailed study on fringing for CCDs already implemented on the Rubin Observatory LSST Camera’s focal plane. After making physical measurements and knowing the compositions, we developed a model for the e2v CCDs. We present a method to fit for the internal height variation of the epoxy layer within the sensors based on fringing measurements in a laboratory setting. This method is generic enough that it can be easily modified to work for other CCDs. Using the derived fringing model, we successfully reproduce comparable fringing amplitudes that match the observed levels in images taken by existing telescopes with different optical designs. This model is then used to forecast the expected level of fringing in a single LSST y -band sky background exposure with Rubin telescope optics in the presence of a realistic time-varying sky spectrum. The predicted fringing amplitude in LSST images ranges from 0.04% to 0.2% depending on the location of a CCD on the focal plane. We find that the predicted variation in surface brightness caused by fringing in LSST y -band sky background images is about 0.6 μ Jy arcsec − 2 , which is 40 times larger than the current measurement error. We conclude that it is necessary to include fringing correction in the Rubin’s LSST image processing pipeline.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing radar scan strategies for tracking isolated deep convection using observing system simulation experiments

Abstract. Optimizing radar observation strategies is one of the most important considerations in pre-field campaign periods. This is especially true for isolated convective clouds that typically evolve faster than the observations captured by operational radar networks. This study investigates uncertainties in radar observations of the evolution of the microphysical and dynamical properties of isolated deep convective clouds developing in clean and polluted environments. It aims to optimize the radar observation strategy for deep convection through the use of high-spatiotemporal cloud-resolving model simulations, which resolve the evolution of individual convective cells every 1 min, coupled with a radar simulator and a cell tracking algorithm. The radar simulation settings are based on the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns held in the Houston, TX, area but are generalizable to other field campaigns focusing on isolated deep convection. Our analysis produces the following four outcomes. First, a 5–7 m s−1 median difference in maximum updrafts of tracked cells is shown between the clean and polluted simulations in the early stages of the cloud lifetimes. This demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of vertical velocity from observations if aerosol impacts are to be properly resolved. Second, tracking of individual cells and using vertical cross section scanning every minute capture the evolution of precipitation particle number concentration and size represented by polarimetric observables better than the operational radar observations that update the volume scan every 5 min. This approach also improves multi-Doppler radar updraft retrievals above 5 km above ground level for regions with updraft velocities greater than 10 m s−1. Third, we propose an optimized strategy composed of cell tracking by quick (1–2 min) vertical cross section scans from more than one radar in addition to the operational volume scans. We also propose the use of a single-RHI (range height indicator) updraft retrieval technique for cells close to the radars, for which multi-Doppler radar retrievals are still challenging. Finally, increasing the number of deep convective cells sampled by such observations better represents the median maximum updraft evolution with sample sizes of more than 10 deep cells, which decreases the error associated with sampling the true population to less than 3 m s−1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Graphite Creep Uncertainty Analysis

Radiation damage estimation is an important component of the post irradiation analysis of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment. It depends primarily on the fast fluence, which is determined using well established methods of spectral adjustment. These are based on best estimates from models such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), input cross-sections, and measured activities from flux wires in the experiment. Each of these parameters can propagate uncertainties which will affect the uncertainty in the calculated dose levels for AGC, or any experiment irradiated within a reactor. While the methods of propagating uncertainty are well-established, the final uncertainty estimates they provide are only as good as the estimates of uncertainty in the inputs on which they are based. The purpose of this work is to outline some deficiencies in the ways these input uncertainties are presently estimated, and to outline a methodology by which they can be improved. The fast fluence and radiation damage received by graphite specimens irradiated in the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiments is presently estimated using spectral adjustment methods that are based on both flux wire activity measurements, and MCNP model predictions. This work describes an ongoing effort to quantify and propagate uncertainties in inputs to the spectral adjustment process, and thereby quantify the resultant error in radiation damage (dpa) estimates. The effort is multi-faceted, and we consider the impacts of both the set of flux wires selected, and the counting process. An expanded set of flux wires is identified that provides a more comprehensive data set on the fast spectrum. To address the counting process itself, a series of round-robin measurements in several reactor metrology laboratories across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and nuclear industry are being undertaken to refine the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards for flux wire measurements. To address the contribution of uncertainty in the MCNP model predictions, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) tool has been developed that statistically samples the model input parameters, runs a series of cases, and assimilates the results to provide an overall uncertainty. The impact of the MCNP UQ tool results is demonstrated by re-analyzing previous AGC flux wire and irradiation data. While the expanded flux wire set obviously cannot be added to these experiments retroactively, plans for future graphite irradiations are outlined.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avian Activity Classification Using Recurrent Networks to Fuse Videos with Metadata on Imbalanced Datasets

Activity classification plays a crucial role in various real-life scenarios involving both humans and animals. There is an increasing need for precise activity classification focused on avian-solar interactions, as the usage of solar energy facilities, such as photovoltaic array power stations, has been observed to impact bird species richness, behavior, and activity. However, there has been no work to develop an automated system to monitor and classify these avian-solar interactions. All current methods rely on human observers, which is time and human resources costly and subject to errors related to searcher efficiency. With the recent success of Deep Learning models in activity classification problems, this paper develops a recurrent neural network-based model to automatically classify six avian activities around solar energy facilities. Our proposed model integrates critical feature engineering metadata with video frame data, enabling improved learning and more accurate activity classification. Furthermore, we address the challenge of data imbalance during training and demonstrate the efficacy of our model in detecting and classifying different activities within video tracks. Additionally, we analyze the saliency/backpropagation map of the trained proposed model and validate its decision-making rationale.

Avian activity classification; bidirectional LSTM;↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analysis and Simulation of the Simplified Aircraft-Based Paired Approach Concept With the ALAS Alerting Algorithm in Conjunction With Echelon and Offset Strategies

This report presents analytical and simulation results of an investigation into proposed operational concepts for closely spaced parallel runways, including the Simplified Aircraft-based Paired Approach (SAPA) with alerting and an escape maneuver, MITRE?s echelon spacing and no escape maneuver, and a hybrid concept aimed at lowering the visibility minima. We found that the SAPA procedure can be used at 950 ft separations or higher with next-generation avionics and that 1150 ft separations or higher is feasible with current-rule compliant ADS-B OUT. An additional 50 ft reduction in runway separation for the SAPA procedure is possible if different glideslopes are used. For the echelon concept we determined that current generation aircraft cannot conduct paired approaches on parallel paths using echelon spacing on runways less than 1400 ft apart and next-generation aircraft will not be able to conduct paired approach on runways less than 1050 ft apart. The hybrid concept added alerting and an escape maneuver starting 1 NM from the threshold when flying the echelon concept. This combination was found to be effective, but the probability of a collision can be seriously impacted if the turn component of the escape maneuver has to be disengaged near the ground (e.g. 300 ft or below) due to airport buildings and surrounding terrain. We also found that stabilizing the approach path in the straight-in segment was only possible if the merge point was at least 1.5 to 2 NM from the threshold unless the total system error can be sufficiently constrained on the offset path and final turn.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Dynamics and Thermodynamics of ENSO and Its Complexity Simulated by E3SM and Other Climate Models

Despite the seeming success of most state-of-the-art climate models in simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there is strong evidence that models achieve realistic levels of ENSO activity do so often for wrong reasons. This is owing to an often occurred near cancelation of large errors in terms of contributions to ENSO growth rate from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedback processes. Climate models remain deficient in simulating the observed ENSO’s spatial and temporal complexity that involves interplays of coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, interactions across multiple scales, nonlinear processes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean system, biases in mean sate and physical processes, and influences external to equatorial Pacific coupled ENSO dynamics. Our proposed research aims at advancing predictive and process-level understandings of ENSO simulated in E3SM and other climate models under current and future climate conditions with two main objectives: (i) better understanding the aforementioned broad range interactive processes and sources that control fundamental properties of ENSO in E3SM and CIMP6 outputs as well as in observational (reanalysis) data sets, using a hierarchical of coupled dynamical frameworks consisting of theoretical analysis, intermediate complexity modeling, and coupled dynamic diagnostics; (ii) to use this understanding to explore pathways towards improving E3SM’s capability of simulating ENSO and its complexity. More specifically, we will focus on four main thrusts of research: (1) ENSO’s dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks; (2) the across-scale interactions of ENSO with annual cycle and MJO/WWB/TIW (Madden Julian Oscillation/Westerly Wind Burst/Tropical Instability Wave) activity; (3) key nonlinear processes of ENSO involving atmospheric convective thresholds, nonlinear ocean dynamic heating, and thermocline outcropping; and (4) the impacts of climate mean-state biases/changes and perturbed physical processes on simulated ENSO and its complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Track Level Compensation Look-up Table Improves Antenna Pointing Precision

The pointing accuracy of the NASA Deep Space Network antennas is significantly impacted by the unevenness of the antenna azimuth track. The track unevenness causes repeatable antenna rotations, and repeatable pointing errors. The paper presents the improvement of the pointing accuracy of the antennas by implementing the track-level-compensation look-up table. The table consists of three axis rotations of the alidade as a function of the azimuth position. The paper presents the development of the table, based on the measurements of the inclinometer tilts, processing the measurement data, and determination of the three-axis alidade rotations from the tilt data. It also presents the determination of the elevation and cross-elevation errors of the antenna as a function of the alidade rotations. The pointing accuracy of the antenna with and without a table was measured using various radio beam pointing techniques. The pointing error decreased when the table was used, from 1.5 mdeg to 1.2 mdeg in elevation, and from 20.4 mdeg to 2.2 mdeg in cross-elevation.

Rotation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Outliers in LiDAR Data Acquired by Multiple Platforms over Sorghum and Maize

High-resolution point cloud data acquired with a laser scanner from any platform contain random noise and outliers. Therefore, outlier detection in LiDAR data is often necessary prior to analysis. Applications in agriculture are particularly challenging, as there is typically no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of points, plant complexity, and local point densities, which are crop-dependent. The goals of this study were first to investigate approaches to minimize the impact of outliers on LiDAR acquired over agricultural row crops, and specifically for sorghum and maize breeding experiments, by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a wheel-based ground platform; second, to evaluate the impact of existing outliers in the datasets on leaf area index (LAI) prediction using LiDAR data. Two methods were investigated to detect and remove the outliers from the plant datasets. The first was based on surface fitting to noisy point cloud data via normal and curvature estimation in a local neighborhood. The second utilized the PointCleanNet deep learning framework. Both methods were applied to individual plants and field-based datasets. To evaluate the method, an F-score was calculated for synthetic data in the controlled conditions, and LAI, the variable being predicted, was computed both before and after outlier removal for both scenarios. Results indicate that the deep learning method for outlier detection is more robust than the geometric approach to changes in point densities, level of noise, and shapes. The prediction of LAI was also improved for the wheel-based vehicle data based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the residuals before and after the removal of outliers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization of Enclosure Radiation with Applications to Crystal Growth

In engineering, simulation software is often used as a convenient means for carrying out experiments to evaluate physical systems. The benefit of using simulations as 'numerical' experiments is that the experimental conditions can be easily modified and repeated at much lower cost than the comparable physical experiment. The goal of these experiments is to 'improve' the process or result of the experiment. In most cases, the computational experiments employ the same trial and error approach as their physical counterparts. When using this approach for complex systems, the cause and effect relationship of the system may never be fully understood and efficient strategies for improvement never utilized. However, it is possible when running simulations to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation to accurately and efficiently determine the sensitivity of the system results with respect to simulation parameters (e.g., initial conditions, boundary conditions, and material properties) by manipulating the underlying computations. This results in a better understanding of the system dynamics and gives us efficient means to improve processing conditions. We begin by discussing the steps involved in performing simulations. Then we consider how sensitivity information about simulation results can be obtained and ways this information may be used to improve the process or result of the experiment. Next, we discuss optimization and the efficient algorithms which use sensitivity information. We draw on all this information to propose a generalized approach for integrating simulation and optimization, with an emphasis on software programming issues. After discussing our approach to simulation and optimization we consider an application involving crystal growth. This application is interesting because it includes radiative heat transfer. We discuss the computation of radiative new factors and the impact this mode of heat transfer has on our approach. Finally, we will demonstrate the results of our optimization.

Tiller, Michael M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Airborne Radar for sUAS Sense and Avoid

A primary challenge for the safe integration of small UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) is traffic deconfliction, both from manned and unmanned aircraft. The UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project being conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) considers a layered approach to separation provision, ranging from segregation of operations through airspace volumes (geofences) to autonomous sense and avoid (SAA) technologies for higher risk, densely occupied airspace. Cooperative SAA systems, such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and/or vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems provide significant additional risk mitigation but they fail to adequately mitigate collision risks for non-cooperative (non-transponder equipped) airborne aircraft. The RAAVIN (Radar on Autonomous Aircraft to Verify ICAROUS Navigation) flight test being conducted by NASA and the Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership (MAAP) was designed to investigate the applicability and performance of a prototype, commercially available sUAS radar to detect and track non-cooperative airborne traffic, both manned and unmanned. The radar selected for this research was a Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar with 120 degree azimuth and 80 degree elevation field of view operating at 24.55GHz center frequency with a 200 MHz bandwidth. The radar transmits 2 watts of power thru a Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array antenna in horizontal polarization. When the radar is transmitting, personnel must be at least 1 meter away from the active array to limit nonionizing radiation exposure. The radar physical dimensions are 18.7cm by 12.1cm by 4.1cm and it weighs less than 820 grams making it well suited for installation on small UASs. The onboard, SAA capability, known as ICAROUS, (Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems), developed by NASA to support sUAS operations, will provide autonomous guidance using the traffic radar tracks from the onboard radar. The RAAVIN set of studies will be conducted in three phases. The first phase included outdoor, ground-based radar evaluations performed at the Virginia Tech’s Kentland Farm testing range in Blacksburg, VA. The test was designed to measure how well the radar could detect and track a small UAS flying in the radar’s field of view. The radar was used to monitor 5 test flights consisting of outbound, inbound and crossing routes at different ranges and altitudes. The UAS flown during the ground test was the Inspire 2, a quad copter weighing less than 4250 grams (10 pounds) at maximum payload. The radar was set up to scan and track targets over its full azimuthal field of view from 0 to 40 degrees in elevation. The radar was configured to eliminate tracks generated from any targets located beyond 2000 meters from the radar and moving at velocities under 1.45 meters per second. For subsequent phases of the study the radar will be integrated with a sUAS platform to evaluate its performance in flight for SAA applications ranging from sUAS to manned GA aircraft detections and tracking. Preliminary data analysis from the first outdoor ground tests showed the radar performed well at tracking the vehicle as it flew outbound and repeatedly maintained a track out to 1000 meters (maximum 1387 meters) until the vehicle slowed to a stop to reverse direction to fly inbound. As the Inspire flew inbound tracks from beyond 800 meters, a reacquisition time delay was consistently observed between when the Inspire exceeds a speed of 1.45 meters per second and when the radar indicated an inbound target was present and maintained its track. The time delay varied between 6 seconds to over 37 seconds for the inbound flights examined, and typically resulted in about a 200 meter closure distance before the Inspire track was maintained. The radar performed well at both acquiring and tracking the vehicle as it flew crossing routes out past 400 meters across the azimuthal field of view. The radar and ICAROUS software will be integrated and flown on a BFD-1400-SE8-E UAS during the next phase of the RAAVIN project. The main goal at the conclusion of this effort is to determine if this radar technology can reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of sUAS. In particular, the study will measure the range of vehicle detections, lateral and vertical angular errors, false and missed/late detections, and estimated distance at closest point of approach after an avoidance maneuver is executed. This last metric is directly impacted by sensor performance and indicates its suitability for the task.

Szatkowski, George N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Pull Force Test Results for Crimped Connections

Crimped electrical contacts are reliable when strict process controls are followed during manufacturing and accompanied by continuous process verification through pull force testing. Cable and wire harness assemblies’ standards are developed and refined over time to provide the minimum pull force that a crimp contact must meet before it breaks from the wire. However, in practice the failures occur at a much higher tensile strength than the minimum required. The first section of this paper reviewed 780 pull force test results provided by NASA Centers that were collected and analyzed to determine how the data compare to NASA’s pre-existing requirements from the cable/harness standards NASA-STD-8739.4 and IPC/WHMA-A-620B-S. The measured tensile strength of most of the contact/conductor pairs (i.e., Contact/Wires or C/W) exceeded the minimum pull force values of NASA-STD-8739.4 and IPC/WHMA-A-620 standards by at least 100%. The C/W pair samples’ tensile strength values followed a normal distribution with an average tensile strength value that was at least 182% of the minimum requirement, and all the samples analyzed passed the pull force testing. In addition, the 95% confidence interval of the average tensile strength distributions for several C/W pairs was determined and plotted as error bars to show that the C/W pairs will meet and surpass the requirements. The frequency of pull force testing can be problematic for projects because of the cost and availability of spare contacts for the destructive test. It is possible to reduce the frequency of pull force testing if at the beginning of the production run, the conditions of the crimp tool and materials are verified, and the settings of the tool remain unchanged throughout the process. However, the project needs to understand and evaluate the impact to risk from reducing the frequency of testing prior to implementing process changes.

Alejandra Constante↗