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At least 739 records · Page 41

Grand Teton Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Forage Change and Winter Habitat Availability for Bighorn Sheep that Employ a High-Elevation Overwintering Strategy to Identify Areas for Intervention

Grand Teton National Park provides habitat for a small native population of approximately 125 bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). The reduction in population of this species is attributed to loss of low elevation habitat, changing local environmental and climatic conditions, and increased disturbance from backcountry recreation. In response to these changes, this population of sheep employs a unique high-elevation wintering strategy in which they amass large fat stores in the summer and expend as little energy as possible in the winter while foraging on high elevation wind-swept and snow-free areas. For this project, DEVELOP partnered with Grand Teton National Park and used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data to assess habitat suitability. Landcover change analyzed between 1987 and 2020 indicated shifting trends in grass and forb cover and tree cover. These trends persisted in the 2031 prediction, with grass cover decreasing and tree cover increasing, which translates to a loss of overall favorable habitat for bighorn sheep. Snow cover analyzed between 2001 and 2020 indicated similar unfavorable trends for the sheep with a decrease in barren areas, important for winter foraging. Finally, habitat suitability was modeled for 2020 and predicted to 2031 to determine habitat gains and losses for this species across the landscape. Overall, the results predicted decreases in suitable habitat and indicated that while these sheep are highly adaptable, strategies to manage suitable bighorn habitat may need to be employed rapidly to effectively conserve this species.

Remote sensing↗

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sources of atmospheric methane from wetlands

Through the use of a computerized Geographic Information Service (GIS), field data on methane emissions and water inundation levels have been combined with remotely sensed vegetation cover data. This permits a more precise extrapolation of point flux measurements to regional scale flux estimates. Since the GIS allows changes in environmental variables to be included in the model, the sensitivity of emissions on large scales to changes in these parameters may be studied. Here, methane flux measurements from the Everglades marsh complex are reported, giving the flux by vegetation class.

Bartlett, K. B.↗

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using a high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution precipitation dataset, Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might underreport frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated potential risks within NASA, as well as the process for communicating and cooperating with other government agencies and industry partners, both domestic and international, to ensure mission success.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

A Continental-Scale Estimate of Soil Organic Carbon Change at NEON Sites and Their Environmental and Edaphic Controls

Current carbon cycle models focus on the effects of climate and land-use change on primary productivity and microbial-mineral dependent carbon turnover in the topsoil, while less attention has been paid to vertical soil processes and soil-dependent response to land-use change along the profile. In this study, a spatial-temporal analysis was used to estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) change in topsoil/A horizon and subsoil/B horizon at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites, USA over 30 years. To separate the effects of land-use, environmental, and edaphic factors on SOC change, space-for-time substitution was used in combination with the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm and Structural Equation Modeling. Results showed that (a) under natural vegetation, Spodosols and Inceptisols found in the eastern NEON sites had substantial topsoil SOC accumulation (+0.4 to +1.2 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ), while Inceptisols and Andisols in the west had a comparable magnitude of topsoil SOC loss (–0.5 to –1.8 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ); (b) Mollisols and Alfisols in the Central Plains sites were susceptible to significant SOC loss under farming and grazing; (c) Runoff/erosion and leaching potential, vertical translocation, and mineral sorption were the most important factors controlling SOC variation across the NEON sites. Our work could be used to parameterize ecosystem models simulating SOC change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Introductory comments on the USGS geographic applications program

The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.

Gerlach, A. C.↗

Development of a Tool to Recreate the Mars Science Laboratory Aerothermal Environment

The Mars Science Laboratory will enter the Martian atmosphere in 2012 with multiple char depth sensors and in-depth thermocouples in its heatshield. The aerothermal environment experienced by MSL may be computationally recreated using the data from the sensors and a material response program, such as the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal (FIAT) response program, through the matching of the char depth and thermocouple predictions of the material response program to the sensor data. A tool, CHanging Inputs from the Environment of FIAT (CHIEF), was developed to iteratively change different environmental conditions such that FIAT predictions match within certain criteria applied to an external data set. The computational environment is changed by iterating on the enthalpy, pressure, or heat transfer coefficient at certain times in the trajectory. CHIEF was initially compared against arc-jet test data from the development of the MSL heatshield and then against simulated sensor data derived from design trajectories for MSL. CHIEF was able to match char depth and in-depth thermocouple temperatures within the bounds placed upon it for these cases. Further refinement of CHIEF to compare multiple time points and assign convergence criteria may improve accuracy.

Beerman, A. F.↗

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

Numerical investigations to identify environmental factors for field-scale reactive transport of pathogens at riverbank filtration sites

While induced bank filtration is a proven method for facilitating sustainable drinking water production, it is at risk from surface water contaminations (e.g., pathogens). Induced bank filtration and pathogen transport in groundwater have been studied extensively. However, long-term studies that consider real-world conditions are missing. These conditions include seasonal changes to environmental conditions and waterworks operations. Therefore, to analyze the effect of seasonal changes on the transport of human pathogenic viruses and their indicators in induced bank filtration, concentrations of adenoviruses and pathogen indicators were monitored over 16 months at an active bank filtration plant at the Rhine River, in Düsseldorf (Germany). Based on this data, a 2D groundwater model was created in PFLOTRAN that simulated flow, heat transport, conservative transport of chloride and the resulting electrical conductivity, reactive transport of oxygen and nitrate, and colloid-based transport of coliforms, somatic coliphages, and adenoviruses. The results show that reduced travel time was the key factor determining periods with a low removal of coliforms and somatic coliphages in the aquifer. Travel time was controlled by river level variations during rainy seasons, and the waterworks extraction rates during dry seasons. Further, for adenovirus transport, travel distance in the subsurface appeared to be the key factor, while travel time had no significant impact. Coliform removal increased when the colmation layer permeability decreased, while coliphage and adenovirus removal was unaffected by the colmation layer permeability. Seasonal changes in temperature and oxygen content did not significantly impact the removal of coliphages and adenoviruses in groundwater. Denitrifying conditions correlated with a lowered coliform removal, but the modelling could not establish a connection between denitrifying conditions and coliform removal. Our study showed that removal of pathogens and pathogen indicators at induced bank filtration plants varies greatly in time and space (e.g., for coliforms from 1 to 4 log-levels at 20m travel distance), and that adenovirus transport differs considerably from transport of coliforms and somatic coliphages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗