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At least 739 records · Page 41

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plant invasion impacts on fungal community structure and function depend on soil warming and nitrogen enrichment

The impacts of invasive species on biodiversity may be mitigated or exacerbated by abiotic environmental changes. Invasive plants can restructure soil fungal communities with important implications for native biodiversity and nutrient cycling, yet fungal responses to invasion may depend on numerous anthropogenic stressors. In this study, we experimentally invaded a long-term soil warming and simulated nitrogen deposition experiment with the widespread invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) and tested the responses of soil fungal communities to invasion, abiotic factors, and their interaction. We focused on the phytotoxic garlic mustard because it suppresses native mycorrhizae across forests of North America. We found that invasion in combination with warming, but not under ambient conditions or elevated nitrogen, significantly reduced soil fungal biomass and ectomycorrhizal relative abundances and increased relative abundances of general soil saprotrophs and fungal genes encoding for hydrolytic enzymes. These results suggest that warming potentially exacerbates fungal responses to plant invasion. Soils collected from uninvaded and invaded plots across eight forests spanning a 4 °C temperature gradient further demonstrated that the magnitude of fungal responses to invasion was positively correlated with mean annual temperature. Our study is one of the first empirical tests to show that the impacts of invasion on fungal communities depends on additional anthropogenic pressures and were greater in concert with warming than under elevated nitrogen or ambient conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Topological Optimization with Big Steps

Using persistent homology to guide optimization has emerged as a novel application of topological data analysis. Existing methods treat persistence calculation as a black box and backpropagate gradients only onto the simplices involved in particular pairs. We show how the cycles and chains used in the persistence calculation can be used to prescribe gradients to larger subsets of the domain. In particular, we show that in a special case, which serves as a building block for general losses, the problem can be solved exactly in linear time. This relies on another contribution of this paper, which eliminates the need to examine a factorial number of permutations of simplices with the same value. Here, we present empirical experiments that show the practical benefits of our algorithm: the number of steps required for the optimization is reduced by an order of magnitude.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Coupled Thermo–Hydro–Mechanical Modeling of Hydro-Shearing Stimulation in an Enhanced Geothermal System in the Raft River Geothermal Field, USA

The Raft River Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project aims to improve the geothermal production by enhancing the reservoir permeability via shear stimulation in well RRG-9. In this paper, we performed a series of 3D thermo– hydro–mechanical (THM) simulations to investigate the influence of hydraulic and thermal effects on the development of this EGS. The model includes synthetic fracture populations based on borehole televiewer images and in-situ stress measurements from well RRG-9. Fracture permeability evolution is determined using an empirical permeability law developed from laboratory experiments. The model was calibrated by comparing the hydraulic response to field observations, including wellhead pressure, injection rate, and well injectivity. Particularly, we analyzed the enhancement of reservoir permeability and the spatial extent of the stimulation zone for the given injection schedule. Our results indicate that the permeability enhancement of fractured geothermal reservoir is caused by the combined effects of injection-induced cooling and fluid pressure increase. The decrease of temperature plays a dominant role in reactivation of natural fractures under the hydro-shearing mechanism, while the higher injection pressure promotes shear failure and enlarges the stimulation zone. Finally, for the specified extensional stress state, the model favors greatest permeability enhancement along the maximum horizontal principal stress, a moderate vertical enhancement, and a smaller gain along the minimum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Review: Pre-Darcy flows in low-permeability porous media

The widely used Darcy’s law specifies a linear relation between the Darcy velocity of fluid flow and the pressure gradient that drives the flow. However, studies have shown that Darcy velocity can exhibit a nonlinear dependence on the pressure gradient in low-permeability porous media such as clay and shale when the pressure gradient is adequately low. This phenomenon is referred to as low-velocity non-Darcian flow or pre-Darcy flow. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the theories, experimental data, and modeling methods for pre-Darcy flow in low-permeability porous media. The review begins by outlining the fundamental mechanisms underlying pre-Darcy flow that regulate the unique characteristics such as nonlinear dependence of the Darcy velocity on the pressure gradient and its relevance to fluid–rock interactions. The review then proceeds to present a thorough compilation of experimental investigations performed in various low-permeability geomaterials including tight sandstones, shales, and clays. Next, empirical and theoretical models and simulation methods that have been developed to fit and interpret experimental data are reviewed. Finally, the review underscores the challenges encountered in conducting and interpreting pre-Darcy flow experiments and suggests future research directions. By analyzing previous experimental investigations, this review aims to offer a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to enhance their understanding of fluid dynamics in low-permeability geomaterials. This provides insights into the application of pre-Darcy flow in numerous natural and engineered processes such as shale oil and gas recovery, contaminant transport in low-permeability aquifers, and geological disposal of nuclear waste.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programming with decision-dependent moment-based ambiguity sets

We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based ambiguity set in to the multistage decision-dependent setting, and derive mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulations of stage-wise subproblems. We develop methods for attaining lower and upper bounds of the optimal objective value of the multistage MISDPs, and approximate them using a series of MILPs. We deploy the Stochastic Dual Dynamic integer Programming (SDDiP) method for solving the problem under the three ambiguity sets with risk-neutral or risk-averse objective functions, and conduct numerical studies on multistage facility-location instances having diverse sizes under different parameter and uncertainty settings. Furthermore, our results show that the SDDiP quickly finds optimal solutions for moderate-sized instances under the first two ambiguity sets, and also finds good approximate bounds for the multistage MISDPs derived under the third ambiguity set. We also demonstrate the efficacy of incorporating decision-dependent distributional ambiguity in multistage decision-making processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A solution framework for linear PDE-constrained mixed-integer problems

Abstract We present a general numerical solution method for control problems with state variables defined by a linear PDE over a finite set of binary or continuous control variables. We show empirically that a naive approach that applies a numerical discretization scheme to the PDEs to derive constraints for a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) leads to systems that are too large to be solved with state-of-the-art solvers for MILPs, especially if we desire an accurate approximation of the state variables. Our framework comprises two techniques to mitigate the rise of computation times with increasing discretization level: First, the linear system is solved for a basis of the control space in a preprocessing step. Second, certain constraints are just imposed on demand via the IBM ILOG CPLEX feature of a lazy constraint callback. These techniques are compared with an approach where the relations obtained by the discretization of the continuous constraints are directly included in the MILP. We demonstrate our approach on two examples: modeling of the spread of wildfire and the mitigation of water contamination. In both examples the computational results demonstrate that the solution time is significantly reduced by our methods. In particular, the dependence of the computation time on the size of the spatial discretization of the PDE is significantly reduced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A reference high-pressure CH4 adsorption isotherm for zeolite Y: results of an interlaboratory study

Abstract This paper reports the results of an international interlaboratory study led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) on the measurement of high-pressure surface excess methane adsorption isotherms on NIST Reference Material RM 8850 (Zeolite Y), at 25 °C up to 7.5 MPa. Twenty laboratories participated in the study and contributed over one-hundred adsorption isotherms of methane on Zeolite Y. From these data, an empirical reference equation was determined, along with a 95% uncertainty interval ( U k =2 ). By requiring participants to replicate a high-pressure reference isotherm for carbon dioxide adsorption on NIST Reference Material RM 8852 (ZSM-5), this interlaboratory study also demonstrated the usefulness of reference isotherms in evaluating the performance of high-pressure adsorption experiments.

Nguyen, H. G. T. (ORCID:0000000210527565)↗

Reference surface excess isotherms for carbon dioxide adsorption on ammonium ZSM-5 at various temperatures

Abstract This work is part of the effort at the Facility for Adsorbent Characterization and Testing (FACT lab) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop reference materials, reference data, and measurement best practices for adsorption metrology. High-pressure surface excess isotherms for CO 2 adsorption on NIST Reference Material 8852 (ammonium ZSM-5) at 15 °C, 25 °C, and 35 °C are reported, expanding on a FACT Lab-organized international interlaboratory study on this sorbent/sorbate pair at 20 °C. The range of temperatures of the present study is of interest for many CO 2 adsorption measurements and applications. Measurements were made using five different adsorption instruments, both manometric and gravimetric. Excellent agreement in the measured isotherms among the instruments was found. An empirical reference equation of the form, $${n}_{ex,ref}({P}_{eq})=\frac{c}{\{{1+\mathrm{exp}[\left(-\mathrm{ln}\left(P\right)+a\right)/b ]\}}^{b }} ,$$ n e x , r e f ( P eq ) = c { 1 + exp [ - ln P + a / b ] } b , [ n ex,ref is surface excess uptake (mmol/g); P eq is equilibrium pressure (MPa); P is ( P eq )/(1 MPa)]; a , b , c are constants] and the 95% uncertainty interval were determined for the isotherms at each of the temperatures. Lastly, the isosteric heat of adsorption is estimated from absolute isotherms derived from the surface excess reference data.

Nguyen, Huong Giang T. (ORCID:0000000210527565)↗

Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reduced accrual of mineral-associated organic matter after two years of enhanced rock weathering in cropland soils, though no net losses of soil organic carbon

Abstract Enhanced rock weathering (ERW), the application of crushed silicate rock to soil, can remove atmospheric carbon dioxide by converting it to (bi) carbonate ions or solid carbonate minerals. However, few studies have empirically evaluated ERW in field settings. A critical question remains as to whether additions of crushed rock might positively or negatively affect soil organic matter (SOM)—Earth’s largest terrestrial organic carbon (C) pool and a massive reservoir of organic nitrogen (N). Here, in three irrigated cropland field trials in California, USA, we investigated the effect of crushed meta-basalt rock additions on different pools of soil organic carbon and nitrogen (i.e., mineral-associated organic matter, MAOM, and particulate organic matter, POM), active microbial biomass, and microbial community composition. After 2 years of crushed rock additions, MAOM stocks were lower in the upper surface soil (0–10 cm) of plots with crushed rock compared to unamended control plots. At the 2 sites where baseline pre-treatment data were available, neither total SOC nor SON decreased over the 2 years of study in plots with crushed rock or unamended control plots. However, the accrual rate of MAOM-C and MAOM-N at 0–10 cm was lower in plots with crushed rock vs. unamended controls. Before ERW is deployed at large scales, our results suggest that field trials should assess the effects of crushed rock on SOM pools, especially over multi-year time scales and in different environmental contexts, to accurately assess changes in net C and understand the mechanisms driving interactions between ERW and SOM cycling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On Master-Length Scale Formulations for Stable Conditions in Turbulence Closure Models

Three formulations of the turbulence-length scales used in numerical modelling of atmospheric flows are compared. The comparison is made using the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino turbulence closure model within the stable boundary layer local similarity framework. With an appropriate choice of model constants, the model predictions are barely discernible and compare well with the empirical data obtained from the SHEBA campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic average model methods

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are computationally expensive and evaluating all summands on every iteration of an optimization method may be undesirable. Here we present the idea of stochastic average model (SAM) methods, inspired by stochastic average gradient methods. SAM methods sample component functions on each iteration of a trust-region method according to a discrete probability distribution on component functions; the distribution is designed to minimize an upper bound on the variance of the resulting stochastic model. We present promising numerical results concerning an implemented variant extending the derivative-free model-based trust-region solver POUNDERS, which we name SAM-POUNDERS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An integrated approach to derive relative permeability from capillary pressure

Surface tension affects all aspects of fluid flow in porous media. Through measurements of surface tension interaction under multiphase conditions, a relative permeability curve can be determined. Relative permeability is a numerical description of the interaction between two or more fluids and the porous media. It is a critical parameter for various tools that characterize subsurface multiphase flow systems, such as numerical simulation for carbon sequestration, oil and gas development, and groundwater contamination remediation. Therefore, it is critical to get a good statistical distribution of relative permeability in the porous media under study. Empirical formula for determining relative permeability from capillary pressure are already well established but do not provide the needed flexibility that is required to match laboratory-derived relative permeability curves. By expanding the existing methods for calculating relative permeability from capillary pressure data, it is possible to create both two and three-phase relative permeability curves. Mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP) data from the Morrow 'B' Sandstone coupled with interfacial tension and contact angle measurements were used to create a suite of relative permeability curves. Furthermore, these curves were then calibrated to a small sample of existing laboratory curves to elucidate common fitting parameters for the formation that were then used to create relative permeability curves from MICP data that does not have an associated laboratory-measured relative permeability curve.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

‘The Cloud is Not Not IT’: Ecological Change in Research Computing in the Cloud

Along with a number of other computing technologies, cloud computing services are increasingly being promoted as a way of enabling openness, reproducibility, and the acceleration of scientific work. While there have been a variety of studies of the cloud in terms of computing performance, there has been little empirical attention to the changes going on around cloud computing at the level of work and practice. Through a qualitative, ethnographic study, we follow a cosmology research group’s transition from a shared high performance computing cluster to a cloud computing service, and examine the cloud service as a coordinative artifact being integrated into a larger ecology of existing practices and artifacts. We find that the transition involves both change and continuity in the group’s coordinative work and maintenance work, and point out some of the effects this adoption has on the group’s larger set of practices. Finally, we discuss practical implications this has for the broader adoption of cloud computing in university-based scientific work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗