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At least 739 records · Page 41

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Circulation of the polar thermosphere during geomagnetically quiet and active times as observed by Dynamics Explorer 2

The effects of geomagnetic activity on the circulation of the high-latitude neutral thermosphere were studied for the periods of November 1981 through January 1982 and November 1982 through January 1983, using neutral wind measurements obtained by the Fabry-Perot interferometer and the wind and temperature spectrometer on the Dynamics Explorer 2. Results for the Northern Hemisphere show evidence of two-cell circulation of the thermosphere at high latitudes during both quiet and active geomagnetic periods at solar maximum; the dusk cell was always dominant. In the Southern Hemisphere, only a single circulation cell existed for both quiet and active periods associated with the dusk cell of ionospheric convection. In both hemispheres, the cell sizes decreased when geomagnetic activity was reduced.

Mccormac, F. G.↗

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗

Dynamics and Power Balance of Near Unity Target Gain Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosions

The change in the power balance, temporal dynamics, emission weighted size, temperature, mass, and areal density of inertially confined fusion plasmas have been quantified for experiments that reach target gains up to 0.72. It is observed that as the target gain rises, increased rates of self-heating initially overcome expansion power losses. This leads to reacting plasmas that reach peak fusion production at later times with increased size, temperature, mass and with lower emission weighted areal densities. Analytic models are consistent with the observations and inferences for how these quantities evolve as the rate of fusion self-heating, fusion yield, and target gain increase. At peak fusion production, it is found that as temperatures and target gains rise, the expansion power loss increases to a near constant ratio of the fusion self-heating power. Finally, this is consistent with models that indicate that the expansion losses dominate the dynamics in this regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic Stiffness and Damping Characteristics of a High-Temperature Air Foil Journal Bearing

Using a high-temperature optically based displacement measurement system, a foil air bearing's stiffness and damping characteristics were experimentally determined. Results were obtained over a range of modified Sommerfeld Number from 1.5E6 to 1.5E7, and at temperatures from 25 to 538 C. An Experimental procedure was developed comparing the error in two curve fitting functions to reveal different modes of physical behavior throughout the operating domain. The maximum change in dimensionless stiffness was 3.0E-2 to 6.5E-2 over the Sommerfeld Number range tested. Stiffness decreased with temperature by as much as a factor of two from 25 to 538 C. Dimensionless damping was a stronger function of Sommerfeld Number ranging from 20 to 300. The temperature effect on damping being more qualitative, showed the damping mechanism shifted from viscous type damping to frictional type as temperature increased.

Howard, Samuel A.↗

Thermoregulation and heat exchange in a nonuniform thermal environment during simulated extended EVA. Extravehicular activities

BACKGROUND: Nonuniform heating and cooling of the body, a possibility during extended duration extravehicular activities (EVA), was studied by means of a specially designed water circulating garment that independently heated or cooled the right and left sides of the body. The purpose was to assess whether there was a generalized reaction on the finger in extreme contradictory temperatures on the body surface, as a potential heat status controller. METHOD: Eight subjects, six men and two women, were studied while wearing a sagittally divided experimental garment with hands exposed in the following conditions: Stage 1 baseline--total body garment inlet water temperature at 33 degrees C; Stage 2--left side inlet water temperature heated to 45 degrees C; right side cooled to 8 degrees C; Stage 3--left side inlet water temperature cooled to 8 degrees C, right side heated to 45 degrees C. RESULTS: Temperatures on each side of the body surface as well as ear canal temperature (Tec) showed statistically significant Stage x Side interactions, demonstrating responsiveness to the thermal manipulations. Right and left finger temperatures (Tfing) were not significantly different across stages; their dynamic across time was similar. Rectal temperature (Tre) was not reactive to prevailing cold on the body surface, and therefore not informative. Subjective perception of heat and cold on the left and right sides of the body was consistent with actual temperature manipulations. CONCLUSIONS: Tec and Tre estimates of internal temperature do not provide accurate data for evaluating overall thermal status in nonuniform thermal conditions on the body surface. The use of Tfing has significant potential in providing more accurate information on thermal status and as a feedback method for more precise thermal regulation of the astronaut within the EVA space suit.

Non-NASA Center↗

Neutral temperature anomaly in the equatorial thermosphere - A source of vertical winds

Data obtained from the Wind and Temperature Spectrometer on the Dynamics Explorer during high solar activity show new evidence for the presence of vertical winds of a significant magnitude in the equatorial thermosphere. They reveal a latitudinal structure that can be related to the recently discovered equatorial temperature and wind anomaly (ETWA). In the local evening hours, the vertical winds usually are downward around the dip equator and collocated with the temperature minimum of ETWA. In general, they are upward at about 24 deg dip latitude away from the dip equator and are collocated with the ETWA temperature crests. The magnitude of the vertical winds is in the 10-40 m/s range. It is proposed that the temperature and pressure ridges, formed by the excess ion drag on the zonal winds around the two crests and ordered by the relatively lower ion drag at the trough of the well known equatorial ionization anomaly, drive a new wind system in the meridional plane and that the measured vertical winds form part of this wind system.

Raghavarao, R.↗

Ab initio ultrafast spin dynamics in solids

Spin relaxation and decoherence is at the heart of spintronics and spin-based quantum information science. Currently, theoretical approaches that can accurately predict spin relaxation of general solids including necessary scattering pathways and are capable of nanosecond to millisecond simulation time are urgently needed. We present a first-principles real-time density-matrix approach based on Lindblad dynamics to simulate ultrafast spin dynamics for general solid-state systems. Through the complete first-principles descriptions of pump, probe, and scattering processes including electron-phonon, electron-impurity, and electron-electron scatterings with self-consistent electronic spin-orbit couplings, our method can directly simulate the ultrafast pump-probe measurements for coupled spin and electron dynamics over nanoseconds at any temperatures and doping levels. We first apply this method to a prototypical system GaAs and obtain excellent agreement with experiments. We found that the relative contributions of different scattering mechanisms and phonon modes differ considerably between spin and carrier relaxation processes. In sharp contrast to previous work based on model Hamiltonians, we point out that the electron-electron scattering is negligible at room temperature but becomes dominant at low temperatures for spin relaxation in n-type GaAs. We further examine ultrafast dynamics in novel spin-valleytronic materials: monolayer and bilayer WSe 2 with realistic defects. We find that spin relaxation is highly sensitive to local symmetry and chemical bonds around defects. For the bilayer WSe 2 , we identify the scattering pathways in ultrafast dynamics and determine relevant dynamical properties, essential to its utilization of unique spin-valley-layer locking effects. In conclusion, our work provides a predictive computational platform for spin dynamics in solids, which has potential for designing new materials ideal for spintronics and quantum information technology.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dynamic characterization and analysis of space shuttle SRM solid propellant

The dynamic response properties of the space shuttle solid rocket moter (TP-H1148) propellant were characterized and the expected limits of propellant variability were established. Dynamic shear modulus tests conducted on six production batches of TP-H1148 at various static and dynamic strain levels over the temperature range from 40 F to 90 F. A heat conduction analysis and dynamic response analysis of the space shuttle solid rocket motor (SRM) were also conducted. The dynamic test results show significant dependence on static and dynamic strain levels and considerable batch-to-batch and within-batch variability. However, the results of the SRM dynamic response analyses clearly demonstrate that the stiffness of the propellant has no consequential on the overall SRM dynamic response. Only the mass of the propellant needs to be considered in the dynamic analysis of the space shuttle SRM.

Hufferd, W. L.↗

High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS), phase 2

The High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) was successfully built, tested, and flight proven on the NASA U-2/ER-2 high altitude aircraft. The HIS demonstration has shown that, by using the technology of Fourier Transform Spectroscopy (FTS), it is possible to measure the spectrum of upwelling infrared radiance needed for temperature and humidity sounding with high spectral resolution and high radiometric precision. By resolving individual carbon dioxide lines, the retrieved temperature profiles have vertical resolutions of 1 to 2 km and RMS errors less than 1 C, about 2 to 4 times better than possible with current sounders. Implementing this capability on satellite sounders will greatly enhance the dynamical information content of temperature measurements from space. The aircraft model HIS is now a resource which should be used to support field experiments in mesoscale meteorology, to monitor trace gas concentrations and to better understand their effects on climate, to monitor the surface radiation budget and the radiative effects of clouds, and to collect data for research into retrieval techniques, especially under partially cloudy conditions.

Source record↗

Recent trends in stratospheric ozone - Implications of ozone and temperature correlation

The relation between ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere is used to estimate the drift in the SBUV spectrometer on Nimbus-7 and the linear trend in ozone from 1979 to 1986. The ozone and temperature variabilities are coupled through chemical and dynamical processes. In the upper stratosphere they are anticorrelated through temperature-dependent loss rates, while in the lower stratosphere their variabilities are positively correlated through dynamical coupling. These relations are used to determine the ozone sensitivity to temperature and ozone trends in terms of temperature trends. It is shown that in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 mbar), the eight-year trend in ozone is a manifestation of dynamical perturbations. It varies from about +4 percent at the equator to about -1 to -2 percent at high latitudes in both hemispheres.

Chandra, S.↗

Transient modeling of the thermohydraulic behavior of high temperature heat pipes for space reactor applications

Many proposed space reactor designs employ heat pipes as a means of conveying heat. Previous researchers have been concerned with steady state operation, but the transient operation is of interest in space reactor applications due to the necessity of remote startup and shutdown. A model is being developed to study the dynamic behavior of high temperature heat pipes during startup, shutdown and normal operation under space environments. Model development and preliminary results for a hypothetical design of the system are presented.

Hall, Michael L.↗

Kinetic Controls on Formation of Textures in Rapidly Cooled Rocks

The crystallization of silicate melts is a complex process involving melts usually produced by partial melting and cooling environments that are rapid in volcanic lavas or so slow as to be auto-metamorphic in plutonic regimes. The volcanic lavas are amenable to laboratory study as are chondrules that comprise the bulk of chondritic meteorites. Dynamic crystallization studies of basalt and chondrule melts have shown that nucleation has a more profound effect on the final texture than the cooling or crystal growth rates. The sequence of crystal shapes grown at increasing degrees of supercooling (DELTA T) or cooling rate demonstrates the effect of increasing growth rate. Equant or euhedral crystals become skeletal, then dendritic and ultimately spherulitic indicating the nucleation temperature and the DELTA T when growth began. Because crystals cannot grow until they nucleate, cooling rate does not always correlate with crystal growth rate and thus crystal shape. Silicate melts cooled at the same rate can have drastically different textures depending on the temperature of nucleation. A dynamic crystallization study of basaltic rocks shows that basaltic lavas must erupt with sufficient crystals present in the melt to act as nuclei and foster growth. With nuclei present, growth will begin when the temperature drops below the liquidus temperature and typical basaltic textures such as intersertal, intergranular or subophitic will form. If nuclei are not present, crystallization will not begin immediately and the DELTA T will increase until embryos in the melts become nuclei. The DELTA T present when grow begins dictates the growth rate and the crystal shapes and thus the rock texture. If nucleation is delayed, growth will take place at high DELTA T and the crystals will favor skeletal or dendritic shapes. Chondrules are usually considered crystallized melt droplets and clearly some are, but most are not. Most chondrules have porphyritic textures that cannot develop from totally melted droplets because nucleation is delayed during cooling and growth occurs at high DELTA T and the resulting textures are dendritic or spherulitic. The porphyritic textures will develop only if the chondrule is partially molten and begins to crystallize immediately upon cooling. Chondrule compositions are close to komatiites and these studies bear on the origin of their textures as well.

Lofgren, Gary E.↗