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DOE OSTI2026

Inertia estimation for power grids: A review of methods, challenges, and future prospects

The electric power grid is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional synchronous generators to inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and energy storage systems. This evolution leads to a reduction in system inertia, a critical attribute for maintaining frequency stability in response to disturbances. Consequently, the ability to monitor and estimate system inertia has become increasingly essential. This paper provides a comprehensive review of existing inertia estimation methodologies, analyzing them from multiple perspectives, including the types of data utilized, underlying estimation principles, operational modes, and system-wide applicability. A comparative summary table is included to distill commonalities and key characteristics across various studies. In addition, the paper examines practical implementations of inertia estimation across several major power systems worldwide, including the U.S. interconnections, the Nordic power system, and the U.K. grid. Key challenges are identified, particularly in estimating contributions from virtual inertia sources and load-induced inertia in increasingly converter-dominated networks. To address these emerging challenges, the paper proposes an integrated framework for real-time inertia estimation and monitoring. This framework encompasses critical components such as data acquisition, inertia estimation from both synchronous and non-synchronous sources, load-induced effects, optimization techniques, forecasting, and virtual inertia scheduling. Collectively, these elements enable dynamic, system-wide monitoring and adaptive control of grid inertia.

Inertia estimation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic modelling and control strategy of a temperature-driven metal hydride cooling system for buildings

A temperature-driven coupled metal hydride (MH) based thermal energy storage (TES) system can allow to shave and shift the peak energy demand in buildings. The high energy density and long-term (seasonal) energy storage capability are its major advantages over other energy storage methods. The dynamic nature of the MH operation, however, requires controlled hydrogen transfer between the coupled MHs at a rate needed to meet the building's transient load. While temperature-driven MH systems are studied in the literature, their application in buildings and control are scarcely reported. Here, this paper presents a control-based dynamic modeling of the temperature-driven coupled MH-TES system for building cooling applications. The dynamic model is developed in MATLAB(R) Simulink environment, considering the thermodynamic and kinetic behaviors of the MH systems. Based on a preliminary analysis of a property database of over 337 hydrides, we select around 1600 MH pairs suitable for building cooling applications. Each of these MH pairs is studied for their performance using the dynamic model, and among all, Zr 0.76 Ti 0.24 Ni 1.16 Mn 0.63 V 0.14 Fe 0.18 -Ti 0.85 Zr 0.15 Cr 1.2 Mn 0.8 MH pair showed fast dynamics along with high coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.71. A parametric investigation is performed on this MH pair to understand the effect of operating temperatures. Finally, three proportional-integral (PI) feedback controllers are investigated to regulate the temperature, pressure and mass exchange between the coupled MH pairs. The developed PI controller is sufficiently capable of rejecting the signal noise from the hydrogen flow and internal heat exchange processes with root mean square error of 5.78 W between reference and actual cooling load.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensuring Transient Stability With Guaranteed Region of Attraction in DC Microgrids

DC microgrids have promising applications in renewable integration due to their better energy efficiency when connecting DC components. However, they might be unstable since many loads in a DC microgrid are regulated as constant power loads (CPLs) that have a destabilizing negative impedance effect. As a result, the state trajectory displacement caused by abrupt load changes or contingencies can easily lead to instability. Many existing works have been devoted to studying the region of attraction (ROA) of a DC microgrid, in which the system is guaranteed to be asymptotically stable. Nevertheless, existing work either focuses on using numerical methods for ROA approximations that generally have no performance guarantees or cannot ensure a desired ROA for a general DC microgrid. To close this gap, this paper develops an innovative control synthesis algorithm to make a general DC microgrid have a theoretically guaranteed ROA, for example, to cover the entirety of its operating range regarding state trajectories. Here, we first study the nonlinear dynamics of a DC microgrid to derive a novel transient stability condition to rigorously certify whether a given operating range is a subset of the ROA; then, we formulate a control synthesis optimization problem to guarantee the condition’s satisfaction. This condition is a linear constraint, and the optimization problem resembles an optimal power flow problem and has a good computational behavior. Simulation case studies verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Operation of Grid Forming Converters as Self Excited Induction Generators Under Non-Ideal Loading Conditions

Self-excited induction generators offer a robust solution for power production for standalone as well as grid-connected systems. In general, self-excited induction generators require excitation capacitors which make use of the machine magnetization characteristics for voltage build up process as well as operation at a specific frequency. In this paper, a self-excited induction machine is modeled with both the electrical and mechanical dynamics. This modeled virtual machine's dynamics are utilized for voltage build up process for a standalone photovoltaic converter connected to a local load for a microgrid application. The modeled machine's parameters are used from the name plate rating from the manufacturer. However, in a microgrid the accommodation of unbalanced and/or nonlinear harmonic rich load is a necessity, therefore, in this work the virtual self-excitation capacitors of the modeled machine are varied based on the machine characteristics. With the objective of ensuring harmonic free point of common coupling voltage, the modeled virtual self-excitation capacitors are varied to accomplish change in terminal frequency and the virtual load torque is varied to obtain voltage magnitude change. To verify the efficacy, the overall system is modeled in MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS domain and most important case studies are presented.

grid forming converters (GFM)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Controlled Pyroshock Test Transients Can Be Used To Better Match Operational Shock Transients and Reduce Artificial Pyroshock Test Failures [Slides]

Shock analysis is typically done via SRS (shock response spectrum). Oftentimes shock analysis is not performed because most loads specifications only supply SRS requirements with no representative shock transients that can be used for analysis. SRS analysis is too conservative. There is no structural dynamics involved as all modes are assumed to have peak responses simultaneously and in-phase with each other. It is possible that all other loads and combination of loads show the design to be good, whereas SRS analysis (1000 g’s are involved) results may require redesign. Multiple shock transients can satisfy a SRS, yet most loads documents don’t provide a representative shock transient that could be used for shock analysis. Shock testing is less common than harmonic and random vibration testing. Engineers typically go into shock tests with very little knowledge of what to expect. A pass/fail type of approach with very little engineering done to prepare for the test or to control the type of shock transient is used. Most engineers will not model the shock test fixture due to lack of knowledge about the details of the test setup. Shock analysis and testing is often an open loop type situation with no test setup modeling, no test correlation, and no control over the test shock transient. In this work, if we can create applied test force transient that comes close to matching calculated force transient then a more reasonable acceleration transient will be created at the test reference accelerometer that better matches operational shocks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Fe atoms on hardening of a nickel matrix: Nanoindentation experiments and atom-scale numerical modeling

Significant hardening effect due to Fe concentrations in Ni-based alloys with face-centered-cubic structure has been studied by using a combined experimental and atomistic-based computational approach via nanoindentation tests. The obtained experimental load–displacement data for the [0 0 1] crystal orientation reached a qualitative good agreement with molecular dynamics simulations results, leading to strong evidence that the main strengthening factors are associated to sluggish dislocation diffusion, reduced defect sizes and the nucleation of tetrahedral stacking faults. Here, interstitial type prismatic dislocation loops mainly formed by $\frac{1}{6}$$\langle$1 1 2$\rangle$ Shockley dislocations are nucleated during the loading process, where their interaction leads to the formation of pyramidal shaped stacking fault which are mainly created by $\frac{1}{3}$$\langle$1 0 0$\rangle$ Hirth dislocations lines. Observing both types of defects coexisting in the same plastic deformation zone by both approaches. Reported mechanical data, measured experimentally and interpreted numerically, are also in accordance with microstructural SEM and TEM investigations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear power flow control for networked AC/DC microgrids

A method for designing feedforward and feedback controllers for integration of stochastic sources and loads into a nonlinear networked AC/DC microgrid system is provided. A reduced order model for general networked AC/DC microgrid systems is suitable for HSSPFC control design. A simple feedforward steady state solution is utilized for the feedforward controls block. Feedback control laws are provided for the energy storage systems. A HSSPFC controller design is implemented that incorporates energy storage systems that provides static and dynamic stability conditions for both the DC random stochastic input side and the AC random stochastic load side. Transient performance was investigated for the feedforward/feedback control case. Numerical simulations were performed and provided power and energy storage profile requirements for the networked AC/DC microgrid system overall performance. The HSSPFC design can be implemented in the Matlab/Simulink environment that is compatible with real time simulation/controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

In Situ Neutron Scattering Study of the Structure Dynamics of the Ru/Ca 2 N:e – Catalyst in Ammonia Synthesis

NH 3 synthesis is one of the most critical industrial processes. Compared to commercial iron catalysts, Ru catalysts show high intrinsic activity in this reaction but suffer from hydrogen poisoning. By loading Ru onto supports such as electrides and hydrides, the hydrogen poisoning problem can be significantly alleviated. However, relevant studies on the structural dynamics of the Ru/electride catalysts under reaction conditions are very scarce. Taking advantage of the high sensitivity to hydrogen species, it is possible to obtain insights into the structural changes during the reaction using in situ neutron techniques. In this study, we have investigated the structural evolution of the Ru/Ca 2 N:e – catalyst during the ammonia synthesis reaction by in situ neutron scattering (inelastic neutron scattering, INS) technique. In situ INS experiments suggest that Ca 2 N:e – is likely converted to the Ca 2 NH phase during the reaction. Unlike the previously known structure where H and N atoms are intermixed, the formed Ca 2 NH exhibits a segregated structure where the H and N atoms are located in different layers separated by the Ca layer. In conclusion, density functional theory calculations of the reaction energetics reveal that there are minor changes in the barriers and thermodynamics of the first N hydrogenation step between the two phases (Ca 2 NH phase with segregated H/N layers and intermixed Ca 2 NH phase), suggesting the impact of the phases on the reaction kinetics to be relatively minimal.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intelligent multi-zone residential HVAC control strategy based on deep reinforcement learning

Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) has been considered as an important demand response resource. However, the optimization of residential HVAC control is no trivial task due to the complexity of the thermal dynamic models of buildings and uncertainty associated with both occupant-driven heat loads and weather forecasts. In this paper, we apply a novel model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, known as the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG), to generate an optimal control strategy for a multi-zone residential HVAC system with the goal of minimizing energy consumption cost while maintaining the users’ comfort. Here, the applied deep RL-based method learns through continuous interaction with a simulated building environment and without referring to any prior model knowledge. Simulation results show that compared with the state-of-art deep Q network (DQN), the DDPG-based HVAC control strategy can reduce the energy consumption cost by 15% and reduce the comfort violation by 79%; and when compared with a rule-based HVAC control strategy, the comfort violation can be reduced by 98%. In addition, experiments with different building models and retail price models demonstrate that the well-trained DDPG-based HVAC control strategy has high generalization and adaptability to unseen environments, which indicates its practicability for real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimization of repairs and dynamic network reconfiguration for improved distribution system resilience

In this work, a post-disaster distribution system repair and restoration (DSRR) strategy is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. The DSRR strategy is formulated as a two-stage optimization. The first stage is a comprehensive co-optimization of repair crew scheduling, dynamic network reconfiguration, and distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch based on the forecast load profile. The goal is to minimize the accumulative operating cost caused by the load reduction payment as well as DER operating cost. In particular, since the number of available repair crews is usually smaller than the number of faulted lines after a disaster event, the DSRR strategy determines the optimal scheduling for repairing faulted lines. The second stage is a re-dispatch of the DER power output and load shedding based on the real-time load demand of each bus. The proposed algorithm is validated by case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems. We consider those scenarios in which faults occur in multiple heavy-loaded feeders. The simulation results demonstrate that the DSRR strategy effectively coordinate the repair scheduling, network reconfiguration and load shedding to minimize the operating cost.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Bottlebrush Polymer Networks: Self-Healing in Super-Soft Materials

Here, we introduce a design strategy to expand the range of accessible mechanical properties in covalent adaptable networks (CANs) using bottlebrush polymer building blocks. Well-defined bottlebrush polymers with rubbery poly(4-methylcaprolactone) side-chains were crosslinked in formulations that include a bislactone and strong Lewis acid (tin ethylhexanoate). The resulting materials exhibit tunable stress relaxation rates at elevated temperatures (160–180 °C) due to dynamic ester crosslinks that undergo transesterification with residual hydroxy groups. Varying the crosslinker loading or bottlebrush backbone degree of polymerization yields predictable low-frequency shear moduli ca. 10–100 kPa, well below values typical of linear polymer CANs (1 MPa). These extensible networks can be stretched to strains as large as 350% before failure and undergo efficient self-healing to recover >85% of their original toughness upon repeated fracture and melt processing. In summary, molecular architecture creates new opportunities to tailor the mechanical properties of CANs in ways that are otherwise difficult to achieve.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phase transformation path in Aluminum under ramp compression; simulation and experimental study

Abstract We present a framework based on non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) to reproduce the phase transformation event of Aluminum under ramp compression loading. The simulated stress-density response, virtual x-ray diffraction patterns, and structure analysis are compared against the previously observed experimental laser-driven ramp compression in-situ x-ray diffraction data. The NEMD simulations show the solid–solid phase transitions are consistent to experimental observations with a close-packed face-centered cubic (fcc) (111), hexagonal close-packed (hcp) structure (002), and body-centered cubic bcc (110) planes remaining parallel. The atomic-level analysis of NEMD simulations identifiy the exact phase transformation pathway happening via Bain transformation while the previous in situ x-ray diffraction data did not provide sufficient information for deducing the exact phase transformation path.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-puff SOL broadening on MAST-U under high-recycling conditions: evidence consistent with cross-field transport changes

Transient broadening of the scrape-off layer (SOL) density profile can modify main-chamber first-wall particle fluxes and divertor loading, yet its control parameters remain debated between divertor-regime transitions, neutral dynamics and changes in cross-field transport. We investigate fueling-driven SOL density-profile evolution and post-fueling relaxation on MAST-Upgrade (MAST-U) in ohmic L-mode, using two otherwise similar double-null Conventional Divertor discharges (I p = 450 kA, B T = 0.33 T) with identical 50 ms low-field side gas puffs; the only intentional difference is the puff start time. Upstream Thomson scattering shows that both discharges develop a transient far-SOL density profile modification, expressed as an increased SOL-width metric λ n e and a far-SOL enhancement consistent with a shoulder-like signature. In the earlier-puff case, the SOL-width metric remains elevated after puff termination and the post-puff decay time scales are systematically longer across the analysed radii. Outer-target Langmuir probes indicate high-recycling conditions during the analysed window (few-eV T e with radially peaked j sat,∥ and q ∥ profiles, without signatures of deep detachment). The outer-divertor collisionality proxy Λ div is elevated in both cases and does not discriminate between the different post-puff persistence. The target-integrated ion flux proxy ∫ J sat dA evolves nearly identically in both discharges when aligned to the puff start. Taken together, these observations suggest that the late/post-puff upstream SOL evolution is not set by parallel exhaust to the outer targetalone and is more consistent with upstream cross-field redistribution, with a possible role for plasma–neutral coupling and fueling geometry.

MAST-U↗

DOE OSTI2022

Load Margin Constrained Moving Target Defense against False Data Injection Attacks

Cyber physical security of power systems with high penetration of renewable generation has attracted attention from researchers. One critical issue is that cyber-physical attacks, disguised as uncertain renewable generation, can target conventional power system state estimation (SE). Moving target defense (MTD) is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against SE. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices without adequately considering the system voltage stability. Exacerbated by the renewable generation uncertainty, existing MTD may cause voltage instability when the power grid is under stress. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow. We utilize the sensitivity matrix of power injection to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing load margin is formulated. This framework is validated on the IEEE 14-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Steady-state simulations and dynamic simulations on PSS/E show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. The impact of the proposed method on attack detection effectiveness is also revealed.

Zhang, Hang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Quaternary Pumped Storage Hydropower on Frequency Response of U.S. Western Interconnection with High Renewable Penetrations

As renewable penetration increases in the United States, maintaining stability and reliability of low-inertia power grid by providing sufficient frequency control capability becomes a challenge. Advanced pumped storage hydro technologies (APSH) will be expected to play an important role for future grid as not only an energy supplier, but also as an ancillary services provider. This paper studies the impact of using quaternary pumped storage hydropower (Q-PSH), as one of the newly proposed APSH technology, to provide primary frequency response. To quantify the impact of Q-PSH on frequency response of the U.S. Western Interconnection, a user-defined dynamic model of Q-PSH is developed on the GE Positive Sequence Load Flow (PSLF) platform and is implemented in a set of detailed U.S. Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) planning cases in which renewable penetration levels are 20%, 40%, 60% and 80%. Simulation results show that Q-PSH can help improve frequency nadir and settling frequency comparing to the conventional PSH.

frequency response↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Performance and Exhaust Emissions of a 4 Cylinder CI Engine Operating With Dimethyl Ether (DME) and Propane Blends

In response to stringent emissions regulations and the need for higher efficiency engines, the utilization of DME and propane fuel blends in compression ignition (CI) engines has gained interest in the automotive industry. In this study, a range of DME-propane blends are explored in a CI combustion strategy at high injection pressures. A GT-Power model of a 2.2 L Hyundai CI engine was developed to facilitate evaluation of the impacts of variations of DME and propane blends at a light and medium engine speed-torque-load operating condition; specifically at 1500 rpm, 50 Nm and 2.84 bar brake mean effective pressure (BMEP); and 2000 rpm, 150 Nm, 8.53 bar BMEP speed-torque-load combination. Here, the GT-Power model was validated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. The results indicate that high diesel-like efficiencies can be achieved with a 100% DME mass substitution and up to 50% propane-DME blends could be implemented without a significant penalty on engine performance indicators. Significant brake specific nitrogen oxides (BSNOx) reductions were also observed along with reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and soot when leveraging these fuel blends.

computational fluid dynamics↗