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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data

Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Simultaneous Inference of Hydraulic and Transport Properties

Abstract Identification of a heterogeneous conductivity field and reconstruction of a contaminant release history are key aspects of subsurface remediation. These two goals are achieved by combining model predictions with sparse and noisy hydraulic head and concentration measurements. Solution of this inverse problem is notoriously difficult due to, in part, high dimensionality of the parameter space and high computational cost of repeated forward solves. We use a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize a heterogeneous non‐Gaussian conductivity field via a low‐dimensional latent representation. A three‐dimensional dense convolutional encoder‐decoder (DenseED) network serves as a forward surrogate of the flow and transport model. The CAAE‐DenseED surrogate is fed into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters, forming a CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion framework. The resulting CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion strategy is used to identify a three‐dimensional contaminant source and conductivity field. A comparison of the inversion results from CAAE‐ESMDA with physical flow and transport simulator and from CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA shows that the latter yields accurate reconstruction results at the fraction of the computational cost of the former.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Strong Gravitational Lens Is Worth a Thousand Dark Matter Halos: Inference on Small-scale Structure Using Sequential Methods

Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10 10 M ⊙ ) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Compound Poisson Generator Approach to Point-source Inference in Astrophysics

Abstract The identification and description of point sources is one of the oldest problems in astronomy, yet even today the correct statistical treatment for point sources remains one of the field’s hardest problems. For dim or crowded sources, likelihood-based inference methods are required to estimate the uncertainty on the characteristics of the source population. In this work, a new parametric likelihood is constructed for this problem using compound Poisson generator (CPG) functionals that incorporate instrumental effects from first principles. We demonstrate that the CPG approach exhibits a number of advantages over non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF)—an existing method—in a series of test scenarios in the context of X-ray astronomy. These demonstrations show that the effect of the point-spread function, effective area, and choice of point-source spatial distribution cannot, generally, be factorized as they are in NPTF, while the new CPG construction is validated in these scenarios. Separately, an examination of the diffuse-flux emission limit is used to show that most simple choices of priors on the standard parameterization of the population model can result in unexpected biases: when a model comprising both a point-source population and diffuse component is applied to this limit, nearly all observed flux will be assigned to either the population or to the diffuse component. A new parameterization is presented for these priors that properly estimates the uncertainties in this limit. In this choice of priors, CPG correctly identifies that the fraction of flux assigned to the population model cannot be constrained by the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the magnetic horizon on the interpretation of the Pierre Auger Observatory spectrum and composition data

The flux of ultra-high energy cosmic rays reaching Earth above the ankle energy (5 EeV) can be described as a mixture of nuclei injected by extragalactic sources with very hard spectra and a low rigidity cutoff.Extragalactic magnetic fields existing between the Earth and the closest sources can affect the observed CR spectrum by reducing the flux of low-rigidity particles reaching Earth. We perform a combined fit of the spectrum and distributions of depth of shower maximum measured with the Pierre Auger Observatory including the effect of this magnetic horizon in the propagation of UHECRs in the intergalactic space.We find that, within a specific range of the various experimental and phenomenological systematics, the magnetic horizon effect can be relevant for turbulent magnetic field strengths in the local neighbourhood in which the closest sources lieof order B$_{rms}$ ≃ (50–100) nG (20 Mpc/d$_{s}$)( 100 kpc/L$_{coh}$)$^{1/2}$, with d$_{s}$ the typical intersource separation and L$_{coh}$ the magnetic field coherence length. When this is the case,the inferred slope of the source spectrum becomes softer and can be closer to the expectations of diffusive shock acceleration, i.e., ∝ E$^{-2}$.An additional cosmic-ray population with higher source density and softer spectra, presumably also extragalactic and dominating the cosmic-ray flux at EeV energies, is also required to reproduce the overall spectrum and composition results for all energies down to 0.6 EeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radial Star Formation Histories in 32 Nearby Galaxies

The spatially resolved star formation histories are studied for 32 normal star-forming galaxies drawn from the Spitzer Extended Disk Galaxy Exploration Science survey. At surface brightness sensitivities fainter than 28 mag arcsec{sup −2}, the new optical photometry is deep enough to complement archival ultraviolet and infrared imaging and to explore the properties of the emission well beyond the traditional optical extents of these nearby galaxies. Fits to the spectral energy distributions using a delayed star formation history model indicate a subtle but interesting average radial trend for the spiral galaxies: the inner stellar systems decrease in age with increasing radius, consistent with inside-out disk formation, but the trend reverses in the outermost regions with the stellar age nearly as old as the innermost stars. These results suggest an old stellar outer disk population formed through radial migration and/or the cumulative history of minor mergers and accretions of satellite dwarf galaxies. The subset of S0 galaxies studied here show the opposite trend compared to what is inferred for spirals: characteristic stellar ages that are increasingly older with radius for the inner portions of the galaxies, and increasingly younger stellar ages for the outer portions. This result suggests that either S0 galaxies are not well modeled by a delayed-τ model, and/or that S0 galaxies have a more complicated formation history than spiral galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamics and energy coupling of gas puff Z-pinches on a fast linear transformer driver

Gas puff Z-pinch experiments with annular Ar and Ne gas shells have been conducted on the Compact Experimental System for Z-pinch and Ablation Research (CESZAR) linear transformer driver (LTD) with 500 kA current and 160 ns rise time. Here, we present results from the first systematic gas puff Z-pinch experiments using a fast (≤ 200 ns) LTD as a driver, in which we show that 7% of the stored energy in the capacitors is coupled to plasma kinetic energy as estimated via self-emission and laser schlieren images. 0D and 1D simulations—which do not allow instability growth and thus reach greater maximum average velocities—using initial conditions inferred from experimental implosion trajectories predict coupling in excess of 10% of the stored energy. Additionally, the Ar and Ne implosions were comparably massed and thus achieved similar maximum kinetic energies, though the Ne pinches were more stable and the x-ray pulses were longer and produced higher yield: 2–5 ns and 0.21–0.52 J (0.15–0.37 J/cm) of Ar K-shell and 12–25 ns and 2.2–3.9 J (1.6–2.6 J/cm) of Ne K-shell, respectively. The difference in stability is most likely attributed to variations in initial conditions such as density distribution and gas breakdown initiation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

An adjoint-based optimization method for jointly inverting heterogeneous material properties and fault slip from earthquake surface deformation data

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

STRIDES: a 3.9 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant from the strong lens system DES J0408−5354

We present a blind time-delay cosmographic analysis for the lens system DES J0408−5354. This system is extraordinary for the presence of two sets of multiple images at different redshifts, which provide the opportunity to obtain more information at the cost of increased modelling complexity with respect to previously analysed systems. We perform detailed modelling of the mass distribution for this lens system using three band Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We combine the measured time delays, line-of-sight central velocity dispersion of the deflector, and statistically constrained external convergence with our lens models to estimate two cosmological distances. We measure the ‘effective’ time-delay distance corresponding to the redshifts of the deflector and the lensed quasar |$D_{\Delta t}^{\rm eff}=$||$3382_{-115}^{+146}$| Mpc and the angular diameter distance to the deflector D_d = |$1711_{-280}^{+376}$| Mpc, with covariance between the two distances. From these constraints on the cosmological distances, we infer the Hubble constant H_0= |$74.2_{-3.0}^{+2.7}$| km s^−1 Mpc^−^1 assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and a uniform prior for Ω_m as |$\Omega _{\rm m} \sim \mathcal {U}(0.05, 0.5)$|⁠. This measurement gives the most precise constraint on H_0 to date from a single lens. Our measurement is consistent with that obtained from the previous sample of six lenses analysed by the H_0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL’s Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration. It is also consistent with measurements of H_0 based on the local distance ladder, reinforcing the tension with the inference from early Universe probes, for example, with 2.2σ discrepancy from the cosmic microwave background measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

AutoReP: Automatic ReLU Replacement for Fast Private Network Inference

The proliferation of the Machine-Learning-As-A-Service (MLaaS) market has brought to light a number of clients’ data privacy and security concerns. One promising solution is private inference (PI) techniques using cryptographic primitives. These techniques often come with high computation and communication overhead associated with the non-linear operator such as ReLU. Several approaches have been developed in reducing the number of ReLU operations, however, they either require a heuristic threshold selection or introduce significant accuracy drop. This work presents AutoReP, a gradient-based framework for non-linear operators reduction that aims to mitigate these concerns from a systematic perspective. AutoReP automates the process of discrete selection of ReLU and polynomial functions on neurons to accelerate PI applications. We also introduce distribution-aware polynomial approximation (DaPa) to accurately approximate ReLUs under given distribution, preserving model expressivity. Our experimental results demonstrate significant accuracy improvements of 6.12% (94.31%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-10), 8.39% (74.92%, 12.9K ReLU budget, CIFAR-100), and 9.45% (63.69%, 55K ReLU budget, Tiny-ImageNet) over current state-of-the-art methods, e.g., SNL. Morever, AutoReP is applied to EfficientNet-B2 on ImageNet dataset, and achieved 75.55% accuracy with 176.1 × ReLU budget reduction.

Peng, Hongwu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cometary Activity Begins at Kuiper Belt Distances: Evidence from C/2017 K2

We study the development of activity in the incoming long-period comet C/2017 K2 over the heliocentric distance range 9 ≲ r {sub H} ≲ 16 au. The comet continues to be characterized by a coma of submillimeter-sized and larger particles ejected at low velocity. In a fixed co-moving volume around the nucleus we find that the scattering cross section of the coma, C, is related to the heliocentric distance by a power law, C∝r{sub H}{sup -s}, with heliocentric index s = 1.14 ± 0.05. This dependence is significantly weaker than the r {sub H} {sup -2} variation of the insolation as a result of two effects. These are, first, the heliocentric dependence of the dust velocity and, second, a lag effect due to very slow-moving particles ejected long before the observations were taken. A Monte Carlo model of the photometry shows that dust production beginning at r {sub H} ~ 35 au is needed to match the measured heliocentric index, with only a slight dependence on the particle size distribution. Mass-loss rates in dust at 10 au are of order 10{sup 3} kg s{sup -1}, while loss rates in gas may be much smaller, depending on the unknown dust to gas ratio. Consequently, the ratio of the nongravitational acceleration to the local solar gravity, α', may, depending on the nucleus size, attain values of ~10{sup -7} ≲ α' ≲ 10{sup -5}, comparable to values found in short-period comets at much smaller distances. Nongravitational acceleration in C/2017 K2 and similarly distant comets, while presently unmeasured, may limit the accuracy with which we can infer the properties of the Oort cloud from the orbits of long-period comets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explainable machine learning of the underlying physics of high-energy particle collisions

We present an implementation of an explainable and physics-aware machine learning model capable of inferring the underlying physics of high-energy particle collisions using the information encoded in the energy-momentum four-vectors of the final state particles. We demonstrate the proof-of-concept of our White Box AI approach using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) which learns from a DGLAP-based parton shower Monte Carlo event generator. The constrained generator network architecture mimics the structure of a parton shower exhibiting similarities with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). We show, for the first time, that our approach leads to a network that is able to learn not only the final distribution of particles, but also the underlying parton branching mechanism, i.e. the Altarelli-Parisi splitting function, the ordering variable of the shower, and the scaling behavior. While the current work is focused on perturbative physics of the parton shower, we foresee a broad range of applications of our framework to areas that are currently difficult to address from first principles in QCD. Examples include nonperturbative and collective effects, factorization breaking and the modification of the parton shower in heavy-ion, and electron-nucleus collisions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics for neuromorphic computing

Neuromorphic computing takes inspiration from the brain to create energy-efficient hardware for information processing, capable of highly sophisticated tasks. Systems built with standard electronics achieve gains in speed and energy by mimicking the distributed topology of the brain. Scaling-up such systems and improving their energy usage, speed and performance by several orders of magnitude requires a revolution in hardware. Here, we discuss how including more physics in the algorithms and nanoscale materials used for data processing could have a major impact in the field of neuromorphic computing. We review striking results that leverage physics to enhance the computing capabilities of artificial neural networks, using resistive switching materials, photonics, spintronics and other technologies. We discuss the paths that could lead these approaches to maturity, towards low-power, miniaturized chips that could infer and learn in real time.

device physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Anatomy of an Unusual Edge-on Protoplanetary Disk. II. Gas Temperature and a Warm Outer Region

We present high-resolution {sup 12}CO and {sup 13}CO 2–1 ALMA observations, as well as optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, of the highly inclined protoplanetary disk around SSTC2D J163131.2–242627. The spectral type we derive for the source is consistent with a 1.2 M {sub ⊙} star inferred from the ALMA observations. Despite its massive circumstellar disk, we find little to no evidence for ongoing accretion on the star. The CO maps reveal a disk that is unusually compact along the vertical direction, consistent with its appearance in scattered light images. The gas disk extends about twice as far away as both the submillimeter continuum and the optical scattered light. CO is detected from two surface layers separated by a midplane region in which CO emission is suppressed, as expected from freeze-out in the cold midplane. We apply a modified version of the tomographically reconstructed distribution method presented by Dutrey et al. to derive the temperature structure of the disk. We find a temperature in the CO-emitting layers and the midplane of ∼33 K and ∼20 K at R < 200 au, respectively. Outside of R > 200 au, the disk’s midplane temperature increases to ∼30 K, with a nearly vertically isothermal profile. The transition in CO temperature coincides with a dramatic reduction in the submicron and submillimeter emission from the disk. We interpret this as interstellar UV radiation providing an additional source of heating to the outer part of the disk.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Segmentation method comparison for residual fiber length measurement across tiled microscopy images

Fiber length distribution (FLD), in part, governs mechanical properties in discontinuous fiber composites, yet manual measurement methods limit the high-throughput characterization needed for materials design optimization. This study compares deep learning segmentation approaches for automated FLD measurement in large-field microscopy, evaluating how method choice affects the microstructural descriptors used in structure-property-processing relationships. A critical challenge is that high-resolution microscopy images (10,000×10,000 pixels) must be tiled for deep learning analysis, fragmenting fibers at boundaries. We demonstrate that segmentation method proves crucial for measurement accuracy. For example, instance segmentation with Slicing Aided Hyper Inference (SAHI) preserves individual fiber integrity across tiles while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed. Comparing against manual measurement of extracted carbon fibers, YOLOv11-SAHI matched manual ground truth (238 μm weighted mean) with 40x speedup (4.5 vs 167 minutes per image). U-Net provides rapid quantification although it is at the cost of reduced accuracy due only reliably measuring stand-alone fibers. Our comparative analysis reveals that instance segmentation with SAHI better preserves length measurements while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed, providing empirical guidance for method selection. The characterization provides essential inputs for mechanical property prediction models and inverse design workflows, accelerating composite materials development cycles.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2025

End-to-End Automated Segmentation Framework for Four-Dimensional Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy Data

Four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) is powerful for rapidly characterizing arrays of nanoparticles produced via high-throughput synthesis. However, such 4D-STEM datasets typically contain thousands of nanoparticles, each characterized by thousands of diffraction patterns spatially distributed across the nanoparticle, necessitating efficient and comprehensive analysis. We propose an end-to-end segmentation framework to automatically segment each nanoparticle into regions with distinct composition/orientation of crystal grains, using only the 4D-STEM data. Bragg disk information is extracted in a physics-informed manner from the diffraction patterns at each spatial location and combined with the real space coordinates to form feature vectors. These feature vectors are then used as inputs to a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to segment the nanoparticle into distinct regions. We also develop two visualization tools based on the GMM outputs to infer the interface transition and the degree of superposition. Our framework comprehensively integrates machine learning tools and physics knowledge, and provides a basis for substantially compressing enormous 4D-STEM datasets, e.g., by replacing the full 4D-STEM dataset for each nanoparticle with only a single set of Bragg disk features for each distinct crystal grain identified in the nanoparticle. In this article, we demonstrate the power of our framework by presenting results for real, complex datasets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗