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Solar Industry Update (Winter 2023) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Summer 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Winter 2024 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Summer 2024: Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fall 2021 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

component↗

Winter 2021/2022 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

cost trade↗

Spring 2022 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

cost↗

Summer 2022 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

ASP↗

Experimental and theoretical study of energy transfer in a chromophore triad: What makes modeling dynamics successful?

Simulation of electronic dynamics in realistically large molecular systems is a demanding task that has not yet achieved the same level of quantitative prediction already realized for its static counterpart. This is particularly true for processes occurring beyond the Born–Oppenheimer regime. Non-adiabatic molecular dynamics (NAMD) simulations suffer from two convoluted sources of error: numerical algorithms for dynamics and electronic structure calculations. While the former has gained increasing attention, particularly addressing the validity of ad hoc methodologies, the effect of the latter remains relatively unexplored. Indeed, the required accuracy for electronic structure calculations to reach quantitative agreement with experiment in dynamics may be even more strict than that required for static simulations. In this study, we address this issue by modeling the electronic energy transfer in a donor–acceptor–donor (D–A–D) molecular light harvesting system using fewest switches surface hopping NAMD simulations. In the studied system, time-resolved experimental measurements deliver complete information on spectra and energy transfer rates. Subsequent modeling shows that the calculated electronic transition energies are “sufficiently good” to reproduce experimental spectra but produce over an order of magnitude error in simulated dynamical rates. We further perform simulations using artificially shifted energy gaps to investigate the complex relationship between transition energies and modeled dynamics to understand factors affecting non-radiative relaxation and energy transfer rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

County Electric Vehicle Home Charging Access Shares From the 2030 National Charging Network Study

This file contains modeled county-level home electric vehicle charging access shares from the study The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure by Wood et al. (2023). These are based on modeling in There's No Place Like Home: Residential Parking, Electrical Access, and Implications for the Future of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure by Ge et al. (2021).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

FUN-BioCROP model with litter decomposition parameters derived from the LIDET dataset

This repository contains the code and data necessary to run the FUN-BioCROP (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen-Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection) model with litter decomposition parameters derived from a modified Monte Carlo simulation that used the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team dataset. Related publication:Juice, S.M., Ridgeway, J.R., Hartman, M.D., Parton, W.J., Berardi, D.M., Sulman, B.N., Allen, K.E., & Brzostek, E.R. Reparameterizing litter decomposition using a simplified Monte Carlo method improves litter decay simulated by a microbial model and alters bioenergy soil carbon estimates. Description of Files: FUNBioCROP_LIDET Study.Rmd R code with FUN-BioCROP model that can be run with 10 different sets of parameters for litter decomposition (Baseline, LIDET, or eight other best parameter sets identified in the modified Monte Carlo simulation. CORPSE Functions_Bioenergy_V2.R Code with CORPSE model functions, called by FUNBioCROP_LIDET Study.Rmd Model Input Data: bulk.csv, bulk_till.csv, rhizo.csv, rhizo_till.csv, litter.csv Initial C and N (kg C or N/m2) pool values for each soil compartment, final values from spin up. All five files have the same columns: (Column - Description - Units) uFastC - Unprotected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uSlowC - Unprotected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uNecroC - Unprotected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 pFastC - Protected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pSlowC - Protected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pNecroC - Protected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeC - Carbon in living microbial biomass - kg carbon/m2 uFastN - Unprotected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uSlowN - Unprotected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uNecroN - Unprotected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pFastN - Protected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pSlowN - Protected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pNecroN - Protected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 inorganicN - Inorganic nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 CO2 - Carbon in carbon dioxide - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeN - Nitrogen in living microbial biomass - kg nitrogen/m2 Model Input Data: FluxTower_AvgSoilT.csv: Average daily soil temperature (oC) at 10 cm depth at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) Energy Farm flux tower from 7/2008-3/2016. (One year of averaged data) Model Input Data: FluxTower_AvgSoilVWC.csv: Average daily soil volumetric water content (VWC) at 10 cm depth at UIUC Energy Farm flux tower from 7/2008-3/2016. (One year of averaged data) Model Input Data: input_CCS_LIDET Study.csv: This file has daily data to run FUN-BioCROP (Column - Description - Units): yr - calendar year - year doy - day of year (1 to 365) (no leap year) - day anpp - aboveground NPP (DayCent) - kg C/m2/day bnpp - belowground NPP (DayCent) - kg C/m2/day aglivc - live aboveground biomass carbon (DayCent) - kg C/m2 bglivcj - live juvenile fine root biomass carbon (DayCent) - kg C/m2 bglivcm - live mature fine root biomass carbon (DayCent) - kg C/m2 aglivn - live aboveground biomass nitrogen (DayCent) - kg N/m2 bglivnj - live juvenile fine root biomass nitrogen (DayCent) - kg N/m2 bglivnm - live mature fine root biomass nitrogen (DayCent) - kg N/m2 nyr - simulation year - year cult - indicates a cultivation event (0 or 1) crop - indicates a new crop (0 or 1) fert - indicates a fertilizer event (0 or 1) frst - indicates the first day of the growing season (0 or 1) harv - indicates a harvest event (0 or 1) last - indicates the end of the growing season (0 or 1) croptype - crop type (0=none; 1=alfalfa; 2=corn; 3=grass clover pasture; 4=soybean; 5=wheat) cropsrl - crop specific root length - mm/g root cultrhizmix - fraction of rhizosphere mixed with bulk soil during cultivation (0.0-1.0) - fraction cultlitmix - fraction of litter mixed with bulk soil during cultivation (0.0-1.0) - fraction harvremov - fraction of above ground biomass removed during harvest (0.0-1.0) - fraction fertamt - fertilization amount - g N/m2 lifehist - plant life history (0 = annual, 1 = perennial) froot_turnover_c - amount of C in fine root turnover - kg C/m2 froot_turnover_n - amount of N in fine root turnover - kg N/m2 agrd_turnover_c - amount of C in aboveground biomass turnover - kg C/m2 agrd_turnover_n - amount of N in aboveground biomass turnover - kg N/m2 leaf_litter_fastfrac - Fast decomposing fraction of leaf litter (0.0-1.0) - fraction root_litter_fastfrac - Fast decomposing fraction of root litter (0.0-1.0) - fraction root_diameter - root diameter - mm root_length - root length - mm root/m2 rhizo_frac - fraction of total soil volume that is rhizosphere (0.0 - 1.0) - fraction date - date in format YYYY-MM-DD Instructions: Save the model code ("FUN-BioCROP_LIDET Study.Rmd") and accompanything files (data streams and CORPSE function code) in the same folder. In model code "Chunk 3: Load CORPSE Data Streams" set the working directory (setwd) to the folder with the files saved in step #1. In "Chunk 5: Define LIDET parameter sets" select the litter decomposition parameter set to be used in the run, and comment out all other sets. If changing any parameter values, edit them in "Chunk 6: Load parameters." Run all chunks up to and including "Chunk 10: Prepare Data for Export." In "Chunk 11: Export Output Data" edit data frames for export and filenames, as necessary. "Chunk 12: Graph Total Soil C" makes a figure of C remaining over the model run period. Description of each model chunk (in file FUN-BioCROP_LIDET Study.Rmd): Chunk 1: Remove all functions, clear memory. Removes all functions from R environment, clears the memory. Chunk 2: Load Packages. Loads packages necessary to run the code. Chunk 3: Load CORPSE Data Streams. Sets the working directory and loads the data files necessary to run CORPSE. Chunk 4: Load CORPSE Functions. Loads the R script with CORPSE functions from the working directory, "CORPSE Functions_Bioenergy_V2.R". Chunk 5: Define LIDET parameter sets. Has ten different parameter sets for litter decomposition tested in this study: Baseline parameters, LIDET parameters, and the other 8 best performing parameter sets identified in the modified Monte Carlo. To run the model, all but one parameter set must be commented out. Chunk 6: Load Parameters. Loads all fixed parameters to run the model. Data frame with definitions of parameters is in the CORPSE function script "CORPSE Functions_Bioenergy_V2.R" Chunk 7: Prepare Data Streams. Takes data streams loaded in Chunk 3 and puts them in the format necessary to run the model. The model is coded to run at least two sites at a time, so if only one site is being run it must be run in duplicate. Individual data tables of daily values are created in this chunk from the input data file. Chunk 8: Set Initial Conditions. Creates data tables of soil C and N pools for each soil compartment (rhizo_till, rhizo, bulk_till, bulk, litter) and loads initial values into the data tables. Creates lists for each soil compartment to hold model output. Chunk 9: Load FUN Data and Set Up Matrices. Uses DayCent data to calculate FUN input data: root and leaf N demand, total N demand, plant CN, leaf N available for retranslocation, and litter production. Creates matrices for FUN model outputs. Chunk 10: Run Model. Runs the model. Chunk 11: Prepare Data for Export. Combines data from each day saved as lists into data frames for each soil compartment. Adds values from all soil compartments together to calculate total soil values, creates separate data frames for each soil C and N pool (e.g., protected slow C) for the total soil value. Adds different C and N pools together to calculate total soil C and N for all layers. Creates data frame of ratio of protected to unprotected SOC. Organizes FUN data for export. Chunk 12: Export Results. Exports CSV files of model results to the working directory. Chunk 13: Graph Total Soil C. Makes figure of C remaining over time. Related Links: Original FUN-BioCROP model: https://github.com/BrzostekEcologyLab/FUN-BioCROP LIDET dataset: https://andlter.forestry.oregonstate.edu/data/abstract.aspx?dbcode=TD023

Juice, Stephanie↗

The role of stress and fluid saturation on the acoustic response of fractured rock

Standard rock physics models are formulated to describe the behavior of porous sedimentary reservoirs, with clean sandstones being the archetypal system; however, many situations demand geophysical monitoring of rocks with significantly different structures, such as low porosity, fractured reservoirs. Conventional models also suggest that these “stiff” reservoirs can be challenging to monitor seismically due to small fluid substitution effects, but the presence of fractures leads to stress dependence which may be leveraged for remote monitoring purposes. Using samples from the Duperow Formation (dolostone) obtained from the Danielson test well in Kevin Dome, MT, we conducted ultrasonic and multi-scale structural (profilometry, synchrotron micro-tomography, pressure sensitive film) measurements on naturally fractured core in order to characterize the effects of fluid substitution and effective stress on the acoustic response of fractured reservoir rock with a focus in particular on the textural and seismic characteristics of natural fractures. We find that changes in effective stress can yield changes in velocity of up to 20% and changes in attenuation up to 200%. Measured fluid substitution effects are resolvable, but stress effects dominate. These measurements provide insight into the physical processes controlling acoustic response of fractured rocks in general and can also be used to inform monitoring efforts in fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Efficient connection of reactive shock wave profiles to reaction models

The future of energetic materials development, especially high-performance high explosives, demands new efficient and cost-effective experimental methods to understand the performance of new materials when only limited, development-scale quantities are available. Indeed, perhaps thousands of new molecules that have promising thermodynamic properties have been synthesized, only to be documented in the literature and never evaluated for their potential due to the cost of scaling up to produce quantities needed for traditional performance measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for the PIP-II Project at Fermilab

The PIP-II project at Fermilab, which includes an 800-MeV superconducting LINAC, demands rigorous radiation shielding optimization to meet safety requirements. We updated the MARS geometry model to reflect new magnet and collimator designs and introduced high-resolution detector planes to better capture radiation field distributions. To overcome the significant computational demands, we implemented a well-known branching technique that drastically reduced simulation runtimes while maintaining statistical integrity. This was achieved through particle splitting and the application of Russian Roulette techniques. Additionally, new graphical tools were created to streamline data visualization and MARS code usability.

Makovec, Alajos [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000286157492↗

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗

How many offshore wind turbines does New England need?

The proliferation of countries and regions with 100% clean or renewable energy targets necessitates an analysis to determine the number of generating units and storage needed to meet real-time electricity demand on the electric grid. The coastal areas of New England have the capacity to produce a large percentage of the region's energy needs with offshore wind turbines. Here we model offshore wind turbine power production data using MERRA-2 reanalysis and lidar wind speed data sets. We compare this power production to the New England hourly grid demand over the course of one year. 2,000 10 MW offshore wind turbines could satisfy New England's grid demand for about 37% of the year. When combined with 55 GWh of storage, 2,000 turbines could satisfy grid demand for about 72% of the year.

17 WIND ENERGY↗