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At least 739 records · Page 41

On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl

The 1930s was characterized by a decade of rainfall deficits and high temperatures that desiccated much of the United States Great Plains. Numerous dust storms created one of the most severe environmental catastrophes in U.S. history and led to the popular characterization of much of the southern Great Plains as the Dust Bowl . In this study, we show that the origin of the drought was in the anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures that occurred during that decade. We further show that interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface were essential to the development of the severe drought conditions. The results are based on simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project general circulation model forced with observed and idealized sea surface temperatures. We contrast the 1930s drought with other major droughts of the 20th century, and speculate on the possibility of another Dust Bowl developing in the foreseeable future.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Implementation of the Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for EOS (LANCE)

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near real-time data from satellite sensors. Applications have demonstrated the utility of timely data in a number of areas ranging from numerical weather prediction and forecasting, to monitoring of natural hazards, disaster relief, agriculture and homeland security. As applications mature, the need to transition from prototypes to operational capabilities presents an opportunity to improve current near real-time systems and inform future capabilities. This paper presents NASA s effort to implement a near real-time capability for land and atmosphere data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments on the Terra, Aqua, and Aura satellites. Index Terms- Real time systems, Satellite applications

Michael, Karen↗

The Search for Feebly Interacting Particles

At the dawn of a new decade, particle physics faces the challenge of explaining the mystery of dark matter, the origin of matter over antimatter in the Universe, the apparent fine-tuning of the electroweak scale, and many other aspects of fundamental physics. Perhaps the most striking frontier to emerge in the search for answers involves New Physics at mass scales comparable to that of familiar matter—below the GeV scale but with very feeble interaction strength. New theoretical ideas to address dark matter and other fundamental questions predict such feebly interacting particles (FIPs) at these scales, and existing data may even provide hints of this possibility. Emboldened by the lessons of the LHC, a vibrant experimental program to discover such physics is underway, guided by a systematic theoretical approach that is firmly grounded in the underlying principles of the Standard Model. We give an overview of these efforts, their motivations, and the decadal goals that animate the community involved in the search for FIPs, and we focus in particular on accelerator-based experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Roadmap on multiscale materials modeling

Modeling and simulation is transforming modern materials science, becoming an important tool for the discovery of new materials and material phenomena, for gaining insight into the processes that govern materials behavior, and, increasingly, for quantitative predictions that can be used as part of a design tool in full partnership with experimental synthesis and characterization. Modeling and simulation is the essential bridge from good science to good engineering, spanning from fundamental understanding of materials behavior to deliberate design of new materials technologies leveraging new properties and processes. This Roadmap presents a broad overview of the extensive impact computational modeling has had in materials science in the past few decades, and offers focused perspectives on where the path forward lies as this rapidly expanding field evolves to meet the challenges of the next few decades. The Roadmap offers perspectives on advances within disciplines as diverse as phase field methods to model mesoscale behavior and molecular dynamics methods to deduce the fundamental atomic-scale dynamical processes governing materials response, to the challenges involved in the interdisciplinary research that tackles complex materials problems where the governing phenomena span different scales of materials behavior requiring multiscale approaches. The shift from understanding fundamental materials behavior to development of quantitative approaches to explain and predict experimental observations requires advances in the methods and practice in simulations for reproducibility and reliability, and interacting with a computational ecosystem that integrates new theory development, innovative applications, and an increasingly integrated software and computational infrastructure that takes advantage of the increasingly powerful computational methods and computing hardware.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Recent land cover changes in the Southwestern US lead to an increase in surface temperature

The increase in large-scale land cover change (LCC) in recent decades, particularly in response to climate-driven disturbances, has potential to impact local and regional changes in climate due to modification of carbon sources and sinks, albedo, surface roughness and energy fluxes. Using observational data, we predict the impact of two of the most extensive LCCs occurring in the Southwestern US: drought-induced tree mortality and shrub encroachment into grasslands, on surface temperature. We developed a new energy balance method that extracts the biophysical responses to environmental conditions, to predict how structural changes in albedo, surface roughness and canopy conductance following LCC will alter surface temperature. This method allows us not only to explain the observed differences in surface temperature between two non-adjacent study sites with different environmental conditions, but also to separate the contribution of biophysical and non-biophysical properties to surface temperature. Our results suggest that changes in biophysical properties due to shrub encroachment and tree mortality in the Southwestern US (independent of changes in other environmental properties) can potentially lead to an increase in midday surface temperature (11AM to 2PM) of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, comparable to changes in surface temperature following deforestation. Although the average surface temperature increase in response to both shrub encroachment and tree mortality is similar, the biophysical properties driving the temperature change are different in each scenario. Change in aerodynamic conductance following tree mortality is the largest contributor to heating, while reduced albedo and canopy conductance drive the increase in surface temperature following shrub encroachment. Finally, we also show how this increase in daytime surface temperature could be further intensified with future climate, especially with the expected reduction in soil water availability in the Southwest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-Relevant Gas Absorption Properties from AWARE and Other ARM Spectral Measurements (Final Report)

The objective of this project has been to use measurements from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) deployed at ARM sites to improve our knowledge of uncertain infrared spectroscopic parameters of importance to climate, remote sensing, and data assimilation. A primary focus has been the water vapor continuum in the infrared atmospheric window. Radiation codes used to predict climate and weather base their representation of the water vapor continuum in this window on the MT_CKD model, but in this spectral region the MT_CKD water vapor continuum absorption coefficients were derived almost two decades ago by an analysis of AERI measurements for conditions with a limited range of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and temperature values, leading to uncertainty in the derived coefficients. This project has included a new, comprehensive analysis of all aspects of the water vapor continuum in the atmospheric window -- the self continuum, the foreign continuum, and the self continuum temperature dependence, all resolved spectrally. Having a wide range of PWV amounts and temperatures from deployments of the ARM Mobile Facility for GoAmazon as well as the more than a decade of AERI measurements at SGP has provided an appropriate foundation for such a comprehensive analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Symbolic diagnostics to interpret and analyze neural network models

Embedded machine-learned models (EMLMs) have the promise to improve the predictive accuracy of engineering simulators in environments of national interest. EMLMs often comprise complex input-output maps (e.g., neural networks), which make them unamenable to rigorous analysis and generally difficult to interpret. In the face of decades of theory, this lack of interpretability is a significant barrier to building confidence in these models. This work outlines an approach to interpret EMLMs using sparse polynomial regression for comparison with theoretical understanding. To do so, we build on the concept of Locally Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) using physics-informed clustering, prototype selection, and library construction. While general, we demonstrate our method on tensor-basis neural networks used in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations of hypersonic fluid flows. Results are presented for a simulated toy model and for direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent flows over a flat plate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction and rational correlation of thermophoretically reduced particle mass transfer to hot surfaces across laminar or turbulent forced-convection gas boundary layers

A formulation previously developed to predict and correlate the thermophoretically-augmented submicron particle mass transfer rate to cold surfaces is found to account for the thermophoretically reduced particle mass transfer rate to overheated surfaces such that thermophoresis brings about a 10-decade reduction below the convective mass transfer rate expected by pure Brownian diffusion and convection alone. Thermophoretic blowing is shown to produce effects on particle concentration boundary-layer (BL) structure and wall mass transfer rates similar to those produced by real blowing through a porous wall. The applicability of the correlations to developing BL-situations is demonstrated by a numerical example relevant to wet-steam technology.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

NASA small civil airplane research

NASA-Langley's ongoing research programs on behalf of performance, safety, and utility enhancements for small civil aircraft have over the last decade introduced important advancements in natural laminar flow inducement and stall/spin recovery and prevention. The achievability and maintainability of natural laminar flow has led to performance improvements of as much as 25 percent. Recent research has improved predictive techniques for aircraft stall/spin characteristics, and also led to the development of a wing leading edge design for enhanced spin resistance.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗

JET Noise Prediction

Aerodynamic noise prediction has been an important and challenging research area since James Lighthill first introduced his Acoustic Analogy Approach over fifty years ago. This talk attempts to provide a unified framework for the subsequent theoretical developments in this field. It assumes that there is no single approach that is optimal in all situations and uses the framework as a basis for discussing the strengths weaknesses of the various approaches to this topic. But the emphasis here will be on the important problem of predicting the noise from high speed air jets. Specific results will presented for round jets in the 0.5 to 1.4 Mach number range and compared with experimental data taken on the Glenn SHAR rig. It is demonstrated that non-parallel mean flow effects play an important role in predicting the noise at the supersonic Mach numbers. The results explain the failure of previous attempts based on the parallel flow Lilley model (which has served as the foundation for most jet noise analyses during past two decades).

Goldstein, M. E.↗

The Aeroacoustics of Turbulent Flows

Aerodynamic noise prediction has been an important and challenging research area since James Lighthill first introduced his Acoustic Analogy Approach over fifty years ago. This talk attempts to provide a unified framework for the subsequent theoretical developments in this field. It assumes that there is no single approach that is optimal in all situations and uses the framework as a basis for discussing the strengths weaknesses of the various approaches to this topic. But the emphasis here will be on the important problem of predicting the noise from high speed air jets. Specific results will presented for round jets in the 0.5 to 1.4 Mach number range and compared with experimental data taken on the Glenn SHAR rig. It is demonstrated that nonparallel mean flow effects play an important role in predicting the noise at the supersonic Mach numbers. The results explain the failure of previous attempts based on the parallel flow Lilley model (which has served as the foundation for most jet noise analyses during past two decades).

Goldstein, M. E.↗

Magnetospheric Constellation: Leveraging Space 2.0 for Big Science

Earth's magnetosphere is a large magnetic cavity formed through the interaction of the solar wind and Earth's intrinsic magnetic field. Solar wind energy enters this cavity through a boundary - the magnetopause - separating Earth's field from the solar wind. This energy leads to many forms of "space weather", including the aurora, geomagnetic storms, and energization of the Van Allen radiation belts. Despite decades of research, we still do not understand the extent of dayside reconnection sites, nor do we have a quantifiable understanding of how much energy enters the magnetosphere during different solar wind conditions - necessary for space weather prediction. On the nightside, impulsive flows at various spatial and temporal scales occur frequently during storms and substorms, and couple to the ionosphere through still unresolved physical mechanisms. Because the magnetosphere is so large, it has been understood since the dawn of the space age that a full understanding of this complex region could only be achieved with a large fleet of in situ spacecraft. NASA has studied one such constellation, the socalled "Magnetospheric Constellation" (MagCon), since the1990's, but it is deemed too expensive to implement using traditional approaches. The CubeSat/ SmallSat revolution represents a fundamental disruption to traditional mission architectures, and in this paper I will discuss how, by leveraging innovation in spacecraft subystems, advanced manufacturing, and access to space, we can finally realize this long-term vision of exploration and discovery. The proposed modular approach, utilizing rideshare and propulsive ESPAs, would also enable worldwide participation in the mission, and is applicable to any constellation mission, including Earth Science missions.

Kepko, Emil Larry↗

Ephemeris refinement of 21 hot Jupiter exoplanets with high timing uncertainties

Transit events of extrasolar planets offer a wealth of information for planetary characterization. However, for many known targets, the uncertainty of their predicted transit windows prohibits an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations. In this work, we refine the ephemerides of 21 hot Jupiter exoplanets with the largest timing uncertainties. We collected 120 professional and amateur transit light curves of the targets of interest, observed with a range of telescopes of 0.3 m–2.2 m, and analyzed them along with the timing information of the planets discovery papers. In the case of WASP-117b, we measured a timing deviation compared to the known ephemeris of about 3.5 h, and for HAT-P-29b and HAT-P-31bthe deviation amounted to about 2 h and more. For all targets, the new ephemeris predicts transit timings with uncertainties of less than 6 min in the year 2018 and less than 13 min until 2025. Thus, our results allow for an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations in the next decade.

photometric↗

Prediction of Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 Interfacial Conductance and Superlattice Thermal Conductivity Using Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Bismuth telluride (Bi 2 Te 3 ) and its alloys with antimony telluride (Sb 2 Te 3 ) have long been considered to be the best room-temperature bulk thermoelectric (TE) materials. In recent decades, proof-of-concept demonstrations on Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 nanostructures have shown high TE performance due to reduction in lattice thermal conductivities. Particularly, ultra-low thermal conductivities have been observed in Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 1D superlattices, leading to thermoelectric figures of merit (ZT) as high as 2.4. In contrast, very few computational studies have been performed to provide insight into the phonon transport across these nanostructures. In this work, we use non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations with previously developed force fields to simulate thermal transport across Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 interfaces and superlattices. We first calculate the thermal conductance associated with a Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 interface across a temperature range of 200–400 K. Furthermore, the values are also compared with thermal conductances calculated by a modified Landauer transport formalism using phonon transmission coefficients obtained from the diffuse mismatch model. Our results show that inelastic scattering processes contribute to an increase in interfacial thermal conductance at higher temperatures. Finally, we calculate the thermal conductivities of Bi 2 Te 3 -Sb 2 Te 3 superlattices with varying period lengths from 2 to 18 nm. A minimum thermal conductivity of 0.27 W/mK is observed at a period length of 4 nm, which is attributed to the competition between incoherent and coherent phonon transport regimes. In comparison with previous experimental measurements in the literature, our results show good agreement with respect to the range of thermal conductivity values and the period length corresponding to the minimum superlattice thermal conductivity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Celestial mechanics during the last two decades

The unprecedented progress in celestial mechanics (orbital mechanics, astrodynamics, space dynamics) is reviewed from 1957 to date. The engineering, astronomical and mathematical aspects are synthesized. The measuring and computational techniques developed parallel with the theoretical advances are outlined. Major unsolved problem areas are listed with proposed approaches for their solutions. Extrapolations and predictions of the progress for the future conclude the paper.

Szebehely, V.↗

Developing Scaling Relationships for Molecular Electrocatalysis through Studies of Fe-Porphyrin-Catalyzed O 2 Reduction

The oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) is a multiproton/multielectron transformation in which dioxygen (O 2 ) is reduced to water or hydrogen peroxide and serves as the cathode reaction in most fuel cells. The ORR (O 2 + 4e – + 4H + → 2H 2 O) involves up to nine substrates and thus requires navigating a complicated reaction landscape, typically with several high-energy intermediates. Many catalysts can perform this reaction, though few operate with fast rates and at low overpotentials (close to the thermodynamic potential). Attempts to optimize these parameters, both in homogeneous and heterogeneous electrocatalytic systems, have focused on modifying catalyst design and understanding kinetic/thermodynamic relationships between catalytic intermediates. One such method for analyzing and predicting catalyst reactivity and efficiency has been the development of “molecular scaling relationships”. In this work, we share our experience deriving and utilizing molecular scaling relationships for soluble, iron-porphyrin-catalyzed O 2 reduction in organic solvents. These relationships correlate turnover frequencies (TOF max ) and effective overpotentials (η eff ), properties uniquely defined for homogeneous catalysts. Following a general introduction of scaling relationships for both homogeneous and heterogeneous electrocatalysis, we describe the components of such scaling relationships: (i) the overall thermochemistry of the reaction and (ii) the rate and rate law of the catalyzed reaction. We then show how connecting these thermodynamic and kinetic parameters reveals multiple molecular scaling relationships for iron-porphyrin-catalyzed O 2 reduction. For example, the log(TOF max ) responds steeply to changes in ηeff that result from different catalyst reduction potentials (18.5 decades in TOF max /V in η eff ) but much less dramatically to changes in η eff that arise from varying the pKa of the acid buffer (5.1 decades in TOF max /V in η eff ). Thus, a single scaling relationship is not always sufficient for describing molecular electrocatalysis. This is particularly evident when the catalyst identity and reaction conditions are coupled. Using these multiple scaling relationships, we demonstrate that the metrics of turnover frequency and effective overpotential can be predictably tuned to achieve faster rates at lowered overpotentials. This Account uses a collection of related stories describing our research on soluble iron-porphyrin-catalyzed ORR to show how molecular scaling relationships can be derived and used for any electrocatalytic reaction. Such scaling relationships are powerful tools that connect the thermochemistry, mechanism, and rate law for a catalytic system. We hope that this collection shows the utility and simplicity of the molecular scaling approach for understanding catalysis, for enabling direct comparisons between catalyst systems, and for optimizing catalytic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗