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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Review of Options for a National Lab for Microgravity/Orbital Activities in LEO

NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) performs data-driven assessments to inform the Agency’s development of policy and strategy. OTPS works across NASA, the US government, industry, and academia to incorporate relevant stakeholder input to data-driven assessments regarding the future of NASA. OTPS conducted a study with the goal of identifying potential models to ensure that NASA and its government-sponsored user communities can successfully complete activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO) in a post-International Space Station (ISS) (i.e. 2030s) timeframe. Given the expectation that one or more Commercial LEO Destinations will replace the ISS by 2030, NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity research and other activities in LEO. This task is particularly challenging due to the uncertain future of the LEO ecosystem. Future scenarios may range from a robust environment with multiple platform options and new activities to an austere environment with few platform options and deflated momentum among user communities. Both extreme futures, along with any number of scenarios in between, have serious implications for the future of LEO and NASA’s role in it. It is therefore imperative that NASA consider its prioritized activities for the 2030 timeframe and identify potential business and operating models that will provide continuity for government-sponsored activities. The results of this NASA OTPS study will be presented, along with a discussion of how specific engagement models could enable NASA and other entities to achieve their goals in the 2030 timeframe.

Erica Marie Rodgers Heusinkveld↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds

The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗

NASA NTRS2001

Technologies for Icy Bodies Access

Recent events in planetary exploration have profoundly changed the way both space scientists and the public regard the solar system and our place in it. These events include the Galileo data suggesting subsurface oceans in the Jovian system, ever stronger suggestions of near-surface water on Mars, as well as the complex structure observed for the Mars polar caps. And, of course, interest in icy cometary bodies is as old as humankind. Finally, the Mars north polar cap may conceivably cover and protect an ancient ocean floor, an obvious candidate ancient or extant habitat. In short, our interest in searching for life embraced early on the search for liquid water, and that has led us to an additional appreciation for water ice as both a commonplace partner with liquid water and as an issue to be addressed in the exploration of a host of interesting sites. In general, the spectrum of specialized technology for space exploration has not yet been broadened to include the requirements brought about by exploration of icy sites. We argue that technologies for access, operations, and science in icy solar system sites must be examined and their prioritized development initiated in order to successfully plan missions to these compelling sites over the next two decades. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Carsey, F. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's Manual

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security. T/BESt's sotware framework, status, beginner-to-expert operation, interface architecture, analysis module addition, and key analysis modules are discussed. Representative examples of T/BEST benefit analyses are shown.

Generazio, Edward R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensuring Safe Decision-Making on the Moon and Mars: Cognitive Performance Assessment for Exploration Class Mission EVA

Extravehicular activity (EVA) is one of the most dangerous and cognitively demanding actions that astronauts can execute, and the cognitive demands associated with future partial gravity EVAs on the Moon and Mars are expected to be higher compared to microgravity EVAs currently conducted from the International Space Station. Decrements in cognitive performance present an important risk to crew safety during exploration mission class EVA. Yet there is currently insufficient data to characterize cognitive performance prior to, during, and following EVA. Furthermore, it is still unclear which cognitive domains are most important for conducting mission critical decisions with crew safety implications. To address this gap, we conducted a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of EVA to characterize the procedures, the cognitive demands required, and the critical safety decisions associated with decrements in cognitive performance. We conducted a cognitive task analysis with 15 astronauts and subject matter experts in EVA operations and research. Interviews focused on surface exploration EVA and elicited feedback from experts on the cognitive skills required for specific EVA tasks, including cognitive strategies, critical cues, and decision-making strategies. A cognitive demands table was assembled to consolidate and synthesize the information from all interviews. The information from this cognitive task analysis informs ongoing exploration EVA for Moon to Mars. This work identifies the specific cognitive challenges that astronauts are likely to encounter during surface exploration EVA, and provides the foundation for: (1) prioritized and targeted cognitive performance measurement and functional performance tests, (2) EVA simulation design at varying levels of cognitive workload, and (3) the development of training and other technologies that can improve safe decision-making and inform EVA planning on future spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars.

Steven R Anderson↗

DOE OSTI2024

Early Inference of Nuclear Technology-Directed Research Activities of Authors from Scientific Publications

Nuclear research articles can provide information about early nuclear proliferation indicators such as influential research entities and technology capability levels of a country, but detection of nuclear activities typically occurs after they have started. We investigate the extent to which nuclear research articles can be used to infer whether a research entity will acquire or develop a nuclear technology before it happens. Early detection of nuclear proliferation or technology development indicators from data is challenging due to partial observability, sparse and unlabeled information, and confounding signals from multiple concurrent activities. This paper presents the early detection problem as a sequential decision-making, goal inference problem, where the objective is to characterize and predict an individual’s, organization’s, or a country’s intent (unobserved goal-directed behavior) towards developing a nuclear capability from partially observed sequences of their research publications, using inverse reinforcement learning and Bayesian goal inference methods. A computational framework is presented, and its application demonstrated using 29,196 Scopus records for a case study related to a civil nuclear capability. The case study results serve as a proof-of-concept demonstration for inference of technology-directed research activity of authors who publish in the nuclear domain. The inference method, combined with advanced computing, may be used to assess and monitor activities pertaining to early developmental stages of a nuclear technology or capability, which in turn can help to identify and prioritize activities with nuclear proliferation potential for further investigation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2021

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Suitable Venus Flytrap Habitat in an Effort to Inform Conservation, Seed Banking, and Reintroduction in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills Regions

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗

NASA NTRS2022

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting

Monika Rock↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chlamydomonas cells transition through distinct Fe nutrition stages within 48 h of transfer to Fe-free medium

Low iron (Fe) bioavailability can limit the biosynthesis of Fe-containing proteins, which are especially abundant in photosynthetic organisms, thus negatively affecting global primary productivity. Understanding cellular coping mechanisms under Fe limitation is therefore of great interest. We surveyed the temporal responses of Chlamydomonas (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii) cells transitioning from an Fe-rich to an Fe-free medium to document their short- and long-term adjustments. While slower growth, chlorosis and lower photosynthetic parameters are evident only after one or more days in Fe-free medium, the abundance of some transcripts, such as those for genes encoding transporters and enzymes involved in Fe assimilation, change within minutes, before changes in intracellular Fe content are noticeable, suggestive of a sensitive mechanism for sensing Fe. Promoter reporter constructs indicate a transcriptional component to this immediate primary response. With acetate provided as a source of reduced carbon, transcripts encoding respiratory components are maintained relative to transcripts encoding components of photosynthesis and tetrapyrrole biosynthesis, indicating metabolic prioritization of respiration over photosynthesis. In contrast to the loss of chlorophyll, carotenoid content is maintained under Fe limitation despite a decrease in the transcripts for carotenoid biosynthesis genes, indicating carotenoid stability. These changes occur more slowly, only after the intracellular Fe quota responds, indicating a phased response in Chlamydomonas, involving both primary and secondary responses during acclimation to poor Fe nutrition. Overall design: Sampling of Chlamydomonas CC-4532 cells cultivated photoheterotrophically (TAP) under Fe-starvation condition (0 uM Fe-EDTA). Samples were collected at multiple timepoints from biological duplicate cultures after washing in TAP medium lacking Fe. Two time courses were collected. A short time course with t=0 (pre-wash), 0 (post-wash), 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 120, and 240 min. A long time course with t= 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24 and 48 hours. Please note that, for long time course, the GSE44611/PRJNA190650 samples were re-used/re-analyzed together with the short time course data: GSM1087792 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_0_hours SRX245324 SAMN01924672 GSM1087793 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_0.5_hours SRX245325 SAMN01924673 GSM1087794 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_1_hours SRX245326 SAMN01924674 GSM1087795 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_2_hours SRX245327 SAMN01924675 GSM1087796 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_4_hours SRX245328 SAMN01924676 GSM1087797 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_8_hours SRX245329 SAMN01924677 GSM1087798 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_12_hours SRX245330 SAMN01924678 GSM1087799 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_24_hours SRX245331 SAMN01924679 GSM1087800 C.reinhardtii_Fe_Long_48_hours SRX245332 SAMN01924680

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

SEGUE-2: Old Milky Way Stars Near and Far

The Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration 2 (SEGUE-2) obtained 128,288 low-resolution spectra (R ~ 1800) of 118,958 unique stars in the first year of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (2008–2009). SEGUE-2 targeted prioritized distant halo tracers (blue horizontal-branch stars, K giants, and M giants) and metal-poor or kinematically hot populations. The main goal of SEGUE-2 was to target stars in the distant halo and measure their kinematics and chemical abundances to learn about the formation and evolution of the Milky Way. We present the SEGUE-2 field placement and target selection strategies. We discuss the success rate of the targeting based on the SEGUE-2 spectra and other spectroscopic and astrometric surveys. We describe the final SEGUE-2/SDSS-III improvements to the stellar parameter determinations based on the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We report a (g - i) color-effective temperature relation calibrated to the IRFM. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties associated with these stellar parameters by comparing with fundamental parameters, a sample of high-resolution spectra of SEGUE stars analyzed homogeneously, stars in well-studied clusters, and stars observed in common by the APOGEE survey. The final SEGUE spectra, calibration data, and derived parameters described here were released in SDSS-III Data Release 9 and continue to be included in all subsequent SDSS Data Releases. Because of its faint limiting magnitude and emphasis on the distant halo, the public SEGUE-2 data remain an important resource for the spectroscopy of stars in the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of building characteristics, social psychological and cultural factors on indoor environment quality productivity belief

Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) plays a key role in determining occupants' productivity at work; however, analyses of the interconnected factors among building physical, attitudinal, social and demographic components in one study are lacking. To fill this research gap, this study investigates these interconnected factors' influence on occupants’ IEQ-productivity belief, defined as a personal, subjective evaluation of the linkage between the impacts of five IEQ aspects (the quality of indoor temperature, air, natural and electric lighting, and acoustics) and productivity. A cross-sectional survey data was collected in university offices from six countries (Brazil, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, Taiwan and the U.S.). Results of multiple linear regression models indicate that IEQ satisfaction is the strongest positive predictor of the IEQ-productivity belief and this relationship is stronger in private offices. Country of residence is the second primary predictor. Several attitudinal-behavioral factors, including thermal comfort, perceived ease of controlling indoor environmental features, and attitudes toward sharing controls are all positively associated with IEQ-productivity belief. Interestingly, the level of control accessibility to light switches has the strongest impact as opposed to other controls. On the other hand, group norms and conformity intention are not significant predictors. Regarding demographics, men are more likely than women to perceive the IEQs to have positive impacts on their productivity, without considering other variables in the regression model; however, women are more likely than men to consider all IEQs as having positive impacts on productivity, after considering other variables. Furthermore, our findings provide suggestions for prioritizing wellness in the workplace since the early design stage.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Energy Analytics Dashboard (TEAD)

The investment decisions within the nation’s transportation sector have traditionally been prioritized and measured against safety and travel efficiency goals. Increasingly, federal, state, and local policies are requiring consideration of energy use and emissions in the design of our transportation infrastructure. Yet the processes, analytics, and knowledge to include these new metrics into transportation decisions are lacking. Although targeted studies and before and after analysis are performed from time to time, no comprehensive real-time monitoring systems provide energy and emissions to the same level as congestion and safety. To address this gap, the Center for Advanced Transportation Technology (CATT Lab) and the Maryland Transportation Institute (MTI) at the University of Maryland (UMD), in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), have developed a Transportation Energy Analytics Dashboard, or TEAD, to raise awareness of the energy and emission impacts to the same level of observability as that of safety and mobility concerns. The overall goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate an online tool to monitor transportation energy use and emissions in real-time and to archive this data for retrospective analysis. By combining surface transportation energy and emissions evaluation capability with more traditional safety, mobility and reliability system evaluation, our goal is for TEAD to create a dynamic new paradigm in transportation systems management and performance analyses, for both real-time traffic operations, and longer-term planning for project and program investment decision-making.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2021

NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change Mission Study

The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine 2017 Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications identified geodetic measurements of surface deformation and related change as one of the top five “observables” to be prioritized in NASA’s future program. In response, NASA commissioned a multi-center Surface Deformation and Change(SDC) team to perform a five year study of mission architectures that would support SDC observables and provide the most value to the diverse science and applications communities it serves. The study is being conducted in phases, in which the science and applications capabilities identified in the Decadal Survey are refined, candidate architectures and associated technologies to support these needs are identified, architectures are assessed against a science value framework specific to SDC, and recommendations to NASA are made. Ultimately, NASA will decide which amongst these recommendations will proceed to mission formulation. As synthetic aperture radar (SAR) was identified as the prime sensor technology to satisfy SDC observational needs, a key component of the SDC study is to assess the current state of the art in SAR sensor and supporting technology. The number of SAR systems, both civil and commercial, is growing rapidly, requiring that mission architectures not only consider technology, but availability of data from other missions, possible partnerships or collaborations, and even data purchase. The mechanism for assessment involves development of an end-to-end science performance evaluation tool for multi-satellite con-stellations, which feeds into a science value framework that con-siders science performance, technological programmatic risks, and cost. This paper will present an overview of the ongoing study including the candidate architectures and the technology road map needed to achieve the objectives of the mission.

Stephen Horst↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Autonomous Satellite Command and Control Through the World Wide Web

The Automated Space System Experimental Testbed (ASSET) system is a simple yet comprehensive real-world operations network being developed. Phase 3 of the ASSET Project was January-December 1997 and is the subject of this report. This phase permitted SSDL and its project partners to expand the ASSET system in a variety of ways. These added capabilities included the advancement of ground station capabilities, the adaptation of spacecraft on-board software, and the expansion of capabilities of the ASSET management algorithms. Specific goals of Phase 3 were: (1) Extend Web-based goal-level commanding for both the payload PI and the spacecraft engineer. (2) Support prioritized handling of multiple (PIs) Principle Investigators as well as associated payload experimenters. (3) Expand the number and types of experiments supported by the ASSET system and its associated spacecraft. (4) Implement more advanced resource management, modeling and fault management capabilities that integrate the space and ground segments of the space system hardware. (5) Implement a beacon monitoring test. (6) Implement an experimental blackboard controller for space system management. (7) Further define typical ground station developments required for Internet-based remote control and for full system automation of the PI-to-spacecraft link. Each of those goals are examined. Significant sections of this report were also published as a conference paper. Several publications produced in support of this grant are included as attachments. Titles include: 1) Experimental Initiatives in Space System Operations; 2) The ASSET Client Interface: Balancing High Level Specification with Low Level Control; 3) Specifying Spacecraft Operations At The Product/Service Level; 4) The Design of a Highly Configurable, Reusable Operating System for Testbed Satellites; 5) Automated Health Operations For The Sapphire Spacecraft; 6) Engineering Data Summaries for Space Missions; and 7) Experiments In Automated Health Assessment And Notification For The Sapphire Microsatellite.

Cantwell, Brian↗