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At least 739 records · Page 41

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗

Field Sensitivity Analysis of Turbulence Model Parameters for Flow Over a Wing

Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models are a critical tool in computational-fluid-dynamics simulations of aerodynamic systems, but simulation results can be highly sensitive to RANS-model parameter choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify these impacts, and the objective of this study is to demonstrate field sensitivity analysis with respect to ten parameters in the 2003 Menter shear-stress-transport (SST) turbulence model. Here, the analysis is demonstrated for an application relevant to wind energy, namely, flow over a NACA 0015 wing at 12 degree angle of attack and a Reynolds number of 1.5 x 10 6 . We quantify sensitivity using Sobol indices and the mean-squared gradient, which are estimated using polynomial chaos and active subspace models, respectively. Our results indicate that there are substantial spatial variations in parameter sensitivities, with different sets of most-sensitive parameters near the wing, as well as in the downstream wake, consistent with the physical interpretations of the turbulence model inputs. We show that, for this particular turbulence model and flow, simultaneous dimension reduction is possible across all quantities of interest, enabling efficient exploration of model outcomes. Ultimately, this analysis provides new insights into turbulence model parameter sensitivities in incompressible flows, and also demonstrates the implementation of field sensitivity analysis for applications relevant to aerodynamics simulations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

HPC for the EEC: Industrial Trade Tools for the Aging Energy Infrastructure

The petrochemical and refining sectors are challenged with reliably delivering safer and cleaner energy to US consumers, while meeting an ever-growing global demand. The petrochemical and refining infrastructure in the USA is aging, and corrosion and damage mechanisms are constant threats to mechanical integrity, safety, and profitability. However, governments and industry stakeholders are reluctant to replace or upgrade the existing infrastructure due to the immense cost. To better understand and mitigate the risks of aging energy infrastructure, strong technical analysis capabilities, combined with optimized monitoring and decision making, is critical. Today, this is accomplished via complex simulations and data analysis. To this end, advanced High-Performance-Computing (HPC) software will be leveraged and integrated in easy-to-use industrial trade tools, to lower the barrier for new users, increase the ease of access for experienced users, and allow for smarter decisions to be made in the midstream and downstream energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Reactor Physics

This study was performed to validate the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library for light-water reactor analysis by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for critical experiments and operating light-water reactors. Uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure for light-water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank work, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. In addition, the SCALE/TRITON v6.3.1 procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 252-group and continuous-energy cross sections was validated for non-lightwater reactors including the HTR-10 reactor, the High-Temperature Test Reactor, the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Shedding light on the 239Pu fission source term with new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling

In the last decade, there has been a renaissance of fission research resulting in new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling. For instance, the Chi-Nu and CEA teams supplied, for the first time, the 239 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for broad ranges of incident and outgoing neutron energies. The CEA team also measured 239 Pu average prompt neutron multiplicities, ν ̄ p , with lower statistical uncertainties and a technique significantly different than the one used in the past. The NIFFTE collaboration provided 239 Pu( n ,f)/ 235 U( n ,f) cross section shape ratios with uncertainties below 1% utilizing a novel detector type. Advanced fission event generators were developed, among them CGMF, FIFRELIN, FREYA, and GEF, which calculate post-scission fission observables in a correlated manner. These new experimental data and more consistent fission models change the evaluated PFNS, ν ̄ p , and ( n ,f) cross sections, some only modestly, compared to ENDF/B-VIII.0. In turn, the individual new nuclear data distinctly change simulated effective neutron multiplication factors of fast critical assemblies, but their combined impact is small, while affecting the prediction of LLNL pulsed sphere neutron leakage spectra and reaction rates only within experimental uncertainties. Also, the parameters obtained from fitting to ν ̄ p reproduce various post-scission fission observables within the uncertainties of experimental data. This indicates that new differential experiments and consistent fission modeling reduce compensating errors present in ENDF/B-VIII.0.

fission cross section↗

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proton Number Cumulants and Correlation Functions from Hydrodynamics and the QCD Phase Diagram

We analyze the behavior of (net-)proton number cumulants in central collisions of heavy ions across a broad collision energy range by utilizing hydrodynamic simulations. The calculations incorporate essential non-critical contributions to proton fluctuations such as repulsive baryonic core and exact baryon-number conservation. The experimental data are consistent with non-critical physics at collision energies of √SNN ≥ 20 GeV. The data from the STAR and HADES collaborations at lower collision energies indicate an excess of (multi-)proton correlations over the non-critical reference. This observation is discussed in the context of different mechanisms, including the possibility of a critical point in the baryon-rich region of the QCD phase diagram.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Calculation of inlet flow fields by an implicit technique

Two-dimensional inlet flow fields in a supersonic free stream are calculated by an implicit, shock-capturing, finite-difference method. The Euler equations are subjected to a general curvilinear transformation and a body-fitted coordinate system is employed. The method is used to solve supercritical, critical, and subcritical flow fields which are simulated by prescribing appropriate conditions at the inlet outflow boundary. Results are presented for a drooped-cowl inlet.

Biringen, S.↗

Integration of imagery and cartographic data through a common map base

Several disparate data types are integrated by using control points as the basis for spatially registering the data to a map base. The data are reprojected to match the coordinates of the reference UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) map projection, as expressed in lines and samples. Control point selection is the most critical aspect of integrating the Thematic Mapper Simulator MSS imagery with the cartographic data. It is noted that control points chosen from the imagery are subject to error from mislocated points, either points that did not correlate well to the reference map or minor pixel offsets because of interactive cursorring errors. Errors are also introduced in map control points when points are improperly located and digitized, leading to inaccurate latitude and longitude coordinates. Nonsystematic aircraft platform variations, such as yawl, pitch, and roll, affect the spatial fidelity of the imagery in comparison with the quadrangles. Features in adjacent flight paths do not always correspond properly owing to the systematic panorama effect and alteration of flightline direction, as well as platform variations.

Clark, J.↗

FNAS computational fluid dynamics

This work involves the coordination of necessary resources, facilities, and special personnel to provide a workshop to promote the exchange of CFD technology between industry, universities, and government. Critical flow problems have been isolated and simulation of these is being done.

Ziebarth, John P.↗

Physics of magnetospheric boundary layers

This final report was concerned with the ideas that: (1) magnetospheric boundary layers link disparate regions of the magnetosphere-solar wind system together; and (2) global behavior of the magnetosphere can be understood only by understanding its internal linking mechanisms and those with the solar wind. The research project involved simultaneous research on the global-, meso-, and micro-scale physics of the magnetosphere and its boundary layers, which included the bow shock, the magnetosheath, the plasma sheet boundary layer, and the ionosphere. Analytic, numerical, and simulation projects were performed on these subjects, as well as comparisons of theoretical results with observational data. Other related activity included in the research included: (1) prediction of geomagnetic activity; (2) global MHD (magnetohydrodynamic) simulations; (3) Alfven resonance heating; and (4) Critical Ionization Velocity (CIV) effect. In the appendixes are list of personnel involved, list of papers published; and reprints or photocopies of papers produced for this report.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory

We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.

virtual observatory↗

International Space Station as a Base Camp for Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The idea for using the International Space Station (ISS) as platform for exploration has matured in the past year and the concept continues to gain momentum. ISS provides a robust infrastructure which can be used to test systems and capabilities needed for missions to the Moon, Mars, asteroids and other potential destinations. International cooperation is a critical enabler and ISS has already demonstrated successful management of a large multi-national technical endeavor. Systems and resources needed for expeditions can be aggregated and thoroughly tested at ISS before departure thus providing wide operational flexibility and the best assurance of mission success. A small part of ISS called an Exploration Platform (ISS-EP) can be placed at Earth-Moon Libration point 1 (EML1) providing immediate benefits and flexibility for future exploration missions. We will show how ISS and the ISS-EP can be used to reduce risk and improve the operational flexibility for missions beyond low earth orbit. Life support systems and other technology developed for ISS can be evolved and adapted to the ISS-EP and other exploration spacecraft. New technology, such as electric propulsion and advanced life support systems can be tested and proven at ISS as part of an incremental development program. Commercial companies who are introducing transportation and other services will benefit with opportunities to contribute to the mission since ISS will serve as a focal point for the commercialization of low earth orbit services. Finally, we will show how use of ISS provides immediate benefits to the scientific community because its capabilities are available today and certain critical aspects of exploration missions can be simulated.

Raftery, Michael↗

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

For Earth re-entry at velocities between 8 and 11.5 km/s, the accuracy of NASA's computational uid dynamic and radiative simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation is assessed through comparisons with measurements. These measurements were obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79% N2 : 21% O2 by mole) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08% N2 : 20.95% O2 : 0.04% CO2 : 0.93% Ar by mole). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth re-entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to examine critical aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance pro les integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the Vacuum Ultra Violet (VUV) through to the Near Infra-Red (NIR), were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURA/HARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40% and over-predict by as much as 12% depending on the shock speed. DPLR/NEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50% and over-predict by as much as 20% depending on the shock speed. The one standard deviation scatter in the EAST results was calculated to be 31%. An estimate for the upper bound of the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux was calculated. Below 9 km/s, where the relative difference is large, the absolute error in radiative heat flux due to non-equilibrium models is estimated to be less then 1 W/sq cm. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error in non-equilibrium is estimated to be less than 20 W/sq cm.

Shock Tube↗

Development of a Design for Manufacturing Tool for Automated Fiber Placement Structures

Existing design processes for laminates constructed with automated fiber placement lack significant integration between the various software tools that compose the process. Tools for finite element analysis, computer aided drafting, stress analysis, tool path simulation, and manufacturing defect prediction are all critical parts of the design process. With traditional hand-layup laminates, the analysis performed with each of these tools could be fairly well decoupled from one another. However, for laminates generated by automated fiber placement, the disciplines can become significantly coupled, especially on structures with curvature. This gives rise to a need for integrated “design for manufacturing” software tools that are able to balance the competing objectives from each discipline. This paper describes the preliminary development of such a tool.

Noevere, August T.↗