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The impacts of convex piecewise linear cost formulations on AC optimal power flow

Despite strong connections through shared application areas, research efforts on power market optimization (e.g., unit commitment) and power network optimization (e.g., optimal power flow) remain largely independent. A notable illustration of this is the treatment of power generation cost functions, where nonlinear network optimization has largely used polynomial representations and market optimization has adopted piecewise linear encodings. This work combines state-of-the-art results from both lines of research to understand the best mathematical formulations of the nonlinear AC optimal power flow problem with piecewise linear generation cost functions. An extensive numerical analysis of non-convex models, linear approximations, and convex relaxations across fifty-four realistic test cases illustrates that nonlinear optimization methods are surprisingly sensitive to the mathematical formulation of piecewise linear functions. The results indicate that a poor formulation choice can slow down algorithm performance by a factor of ten, increasing the runtime from seconds to minutes. Furthermore, these results provide valuable insights into the best formulations of nonlinear optimal power flow problems with piecewise linear cost functions, an important step towards building a new generation of energy markets that incorporate the nonlinear AC power flow model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via techno-economic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), which provides inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL's reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on techno-economic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next-generation technologies such as closed-loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

annual technology baseline↗

The parallelism motifs of genomic data analysis

Genomic datasets are growing dramatically as the cost of sequencing continues to decline and small sequencing devices become available. Enormous community databases store and share these data with the research community, but some of these genomic data analysis problems require large-scale computational platforms to meet both the memory and computational requirements. These applications differ from scientific simulations that dominate the workload on high-end parallel systems today and place different requirements on programming support, software libraries and parallel architectural design. For example, they involve irregular communication patterns such as asynchronous updates to shared data structures. We consider several problems in high-performance genomics analysis, including alignment, profiling, clustering and assembly for both single genomes and metagenomes. We identify some of the common computational patterns or ‘motifs’ that help inform parallelization strategies and compare our motifs to some of the established lists, arguing that at least two key patterns, sorting and hashing, are missing. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient and low-cost hydrogen production by wind power driven water electrolysis

The document describes and discusses the results of a techno-economic analysis for wind driven electrolysis systems. The costs obtained for different plants, including onshore and offshore locations and different plant sizes, are discussed. Large scale wind electrolysis plants show high potential to achieve the target of 2 $/kg. Initial results of experimental tests for a single cell electrolyzer, to be coupled directly with a wind turbine, are also presented and discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Brazilian CBP - Technoeconomic analysis data

This data is related to the paper entitled "Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing". That features the evaluation of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion to ethanol at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. The following scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term consolidated bioprocessing (CBP), relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment and considering significant technological advance of the CBP. Available here are the spreadsheets used for Material and Energy balance calculation, Capital and Operational costs estimation and Cash flow analysis. Also available are the description and python code used for Monte Carlo analysis of the ethanol and capital investment variations. This data can be used as a source to implement other techno-economic analysis in the biorefinary context.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Real-time biomass feedstock particle quality detection using image analysis and machine vision

Abstract A common and costly challenge in the nascent biorefinery industry is the consistent handling and conveyance of biomass feedstock materials, which can vary widely in their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Solutions to cope with varying feedstock qualities will be required, including advanced process controls to adjust equipment and reject feedstocks that do not meet a quality standard. In this work, we present and evaluate methods to autonomously assess corn stover feedstock quality in real time and provide data to process controls with low-cost camera hardware. We explore the use of neural networks to classify feedstocks based on actual processing behavior and pixel matrix feature parameterization to further assess particle attributes that may explain the variable processing behavior. We used the pretrained ResNet neural network coupled with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) time-series classifier trained on our image data, resulting in binary classification of feedstock anomalies with favorable performance. The textural aspects of the image data were statistically analyzed to determine if the textural features were predictive of operational disruptions. The significant textural features were angular second moment, prominence, mean height of surface profile, mean resultant vector, shade, skewness, variation of the polar facet orientation, and direction of azimuthal facets. Expansion of these models is recommended across a wider variety of labeled feedstock images of different qualities and species to develop a more robust tool that may be deployed using low-cost cameras within biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integration of phage and yeast display platforms: A reliable and cost effective approach for binning of peptides as displayed on-phage

Hundreds of target specific peptides are routinely discovered by peptide display platforms. However, due to the high cost of peptide synthesis only a limited number of peptides are chemically made for further analysis. Here we describe an accurate and cost effective method to bin peptides on-phage based on binding region(s), without any requirement for peptide or protein synthesis. This approach, which integrates phage and yeast display platforms, requires display of target and its alanine variants on yeast. Flow cytometry was used to detect binding of peptides on-phage to the target on yeast. Once hits were identified, they were synthesized to confirm their binding region(s) by HDX (Hydrogen deuterium exchange) and crystallography. Moreover, we have successfully shown that this approach can be implemented as part of a panning process to deplete non-functional peptides. This technique can be applied to any target that can be successfully displayed on yeast; it narrows down the number of peptides requiring synthesis; and its utilization during selection results in enrichment of peptide population against defined binding regions on the target.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Minnesota Solar Pathways: Illuminating Pathways to 10% Solar (Final Technical Report)

The Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, was a three-year project designed to explore least-risk, best-value strategies for meeting the State of Minnesota’s solar goals. As part of this aim, the Pathways Team modeled renewable generation costs, examined ways to streamline interconnection, and evaluated technologies that can increase solar hosting capacity on the distribution grid. Midway through the project period, the Pathways Team expanded the scope of study using the same modeling framework from the Minnesota Solar Potential Analysis to estimate and compare generation costs for high renewables penetration scenarios across the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. The analysis concludes that it can be cheaper to overbuild solar + wind and curtail surplus than to store all generation. In addition, the analysis of individual MISO subregions compared with the whole region highlights the opportunities of enabling market potential compared with impact of ongoing transmission constraints. Beyond the analysis of future scenarios, the partnerships initiated and supported through this project underscored the ongoing need for work with stakeholders to address key issues, particularly around siting, and leverage symbiotic strategies to meet state goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Novel Process for Carbon Dioxide Conversion to Fuel

In this project, TDA developed a new mixed metal oxide-based sorbent that converts CO2 (captured from coal fired power plants) to CO, which can then be combined with renewable H2 generated by water electrolysis or H2 from steam methane reforming to produce different liquid fuels. TDA’s absorbent-based CO2 conversion process uses a redox process, which splits the catalytic reforming of methane with CO2 reaction into two stages: CO2 reduction to CO and CH4 reforming into H2 and CO which eliminates the equilibrium limitations. The CO produced in the two-stage reactor system can then be further reacted with renewable H2 to produce methanol, naphtha, diesel, or gasoline. We worked with the Advanced Power & Energy Program (APEP) of University of California, Irvine (UCI) to design and develop the liquid fuel synthesis process that is built around this new material. We demonstrated the techno-economic viability of the new sorbent based redox process to convert CO2 into synthesis gas by demonstrating continuous carbon dioxide reduction in a prototype test system for over 585 hours while converting up to 10 kg CO2/day. With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a larger pilot-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 to TRL 5. In collaboration with UCI, we completed a high-fidelity process design and economic analysis. The required sale price (RSP) for gasoline (Case 1 NG-MTG) is $4.91/gal and naphtha and diesel (Case 2 NG-FT) are $4.23/gal and $6.07/gal, respectively, on a 2011 dollar basis. To put these costs in perspective, the California prices in current dollars (with its strict specifications) for regular grade gasoline from last year to current year have varied from a low of $3.10/gal in January 2021 to a high of $5.76/gal in March 2022, while prices for diesel from last year to current year have varied from a low of $3.40/gal in January 2021 to a high of $6.41/gal in May 2022 according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency data. It should be noted that the gasoline and diesel produced by these designs of Case 1 and Case 2 would be of very high quality and both nitrogen and sulfur free. These RSPs are based on a cost of imported electricity of $64/MWh based on the low-end current wind generated electricity cost (Genevieve 2011). This cost is by far the largest component of the variable costs used in computing the RSPs. A sensitivity analysis of these RSPs to the cost of imported electricity shows that the cost of the imported electricity has a significant effect on the RSPs. The life cycle analysis (LCA) shows that the total cradle-to-gate CO2 emissions for both liquid fuels (diesel and gasoline) were negative, indicating that overall more CO2 is consumed than released during production of the fuel from CO2 feed stack for both cases (-296 kgCO2 per MT gasoline for Case 1 and -705 kgCO2 per MT diesel for Case 2). On a cradle-to-grave comparison, the use of diesel produced using TDA’s process (2,457 kgCO2 per MT diesel) would release 37.6% less CO2 compared to petroleum based diesel (3,937 kgCO2 per MT diesel) while the use of gasoline produced using TDA’s process (2,792 kgCO2 per MT gasoline) would release 29.3% less CO2 compared to petroleum based gasoline (3,946 kgCO2 per MT gasoline). With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a bench-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 (Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept) to TRL 5 (Laboratory scale similar system validation in relevant environment).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Integrated Technology for Cost-Effective CO2 Capture and Formic Acid Production: Modeling, Optimization, and Economic Analysis

A novel reactive technology is being investigated that electrochemically converts CO2 into valuable chemicals, particularly formic acid. This work focuses on identifying the optimal design and operation of an integrated membrane-based CO2 capture unit with the electrochemical conversion process. In this setup, the CO2 in the flue gas permeates through a CO2-selective membrane and enters an electrolyzer to produce formic acid, creating an integrated reaction module. To refine the chemical product, gas products from the electrolyzer are directed to a pressure swing adsorption unit, while the liquid product undergoes refinement to achieve commercial-grade formic acid using reactive distillation. A membrane CO2 capture model and an electrochemical conversion model have been developed using the IDAES Integrated Platform (Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy System), facilitating rigorous flowsheet modeling and process design and optimization.

Wang, Maojian↗

HyBlend Collaborative Research Partnership (CRADA Final Report)

This agreement assembles a multi-lab, multi-industry team to address high-priority research topics related to the blending of hydrogen (H2) into the U.S. natural gas (NG) pipeline network. There are four main research objectives: 1. Compatibility of metals (SNL) – Develop general principles for operation of HyBlend™ delivery systems in the context of structural integrity and assess the role of gas impurities on degradation of metal pipelines. 2. Compatibility of polymers (PNNL) – Assess gas impurities in HyBlend for polymer pipeline degradation and lifetime predictions. 3. Life cycle analysis (LCA) (ANL) – Analyze the life cycle of technology pathways for hydrogen and NG blends, as well as alternative pathways. 4.Techno-economic analysis (TEA) (NREL) – Quantify the costs and opportunities for hydrogen production and blending with the NG network, as well as alternative pathways.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of Survey Results from Advanced Reactor Industry Domain Experts on Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis Software Verification and Validation

The seismic load case has a significant impact on the design and cost of nuclear power plants. Given the need to substantially reduce cost, advanced reactor designers are looking to leverage numerical tools that enable seismic analysis of an integrated vessel/support/structure/soil system. Modern nonlinear analysis tools provide a solution, capturing dynamic coupling between components (including soil-structure interaction (SSI)) concurrent with nonlinear behavior in one or more parts of the system. Although these methods have a rich history of technical development and implementation, software quality assurance (SQA) following nuclear industry standards remains a significant burden for those wishing to adopt such methods for advanced reactor design and licensing. To reduce the SQA burden, this project will develop the guidance for SQA verification and validation (V&V) of coupled nonlinear SSI analysis tools, to include a test matrix of software features and test problems to support commercial grade dedication (CGD). The guidance is intended to be technology-neutral: supporting designers of all advanced reactors. To maximize the value of the project to reactor designers, the project team performed focused surveys of and interviews with advanced reactor designers. Additionally, the project surveyed members of the broader industry involved in reactor design and licensing. The aggregated industry feedback consists of written survey responses, live polling responses, focused interviews, and informal feedback provided after outreach presentations, collectively referred to as “survey results”. Herein, the survey results are reported, reviewed, and assessed to inform follow-on project activities. The survey results confirmed the familiarity of the industry with the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis. They also affirm the project need based upon the expressed intent to (1) incorporate nonlinear features and (2) pursue the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis to reduce seismic demands and construction costs. All reactor designers indicated their intent to incorporate two or more nonlinear features, and all reactor designer respondents opined that the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis would allow for the optimization of the reactor design and construction. However, the programmatic challenges, whether real or perceived, present a significant barrier to reactor designers. The barrier most commonly identified by the reactor designer population was regulatory risk, with 70% citing this as a reason not to pursue the approach. The perceived regulatory risk identified by the reactor designers underscores the importance of regulator engagement and dialogue in this project. Additionally, half of the reactor designers identified cost and lack of guidance as a deterrent. The survey results also provide insights to tailor specific aspects of the guidance document and test matrix. The project plans to prepare both a formal referenceable guidance document and a collaborative, web-based test matrix and problem set. The project will focus on more complete test problem definitions for the prioritized nonlinear features over shallower problem descriptions for a larger set of features. The nonlinearities prioritized as high based upon survey feedback include fluid-structure interaction and seismic isolation and energy dissipation devices. The nonlinearities prioritized as intermediate include nonlinear geomaterials, nonlinear concrete, nonlinear steel, and interface/contact nonlinearity. Deep embedment and the associated nonlinear phenomena are assigned the lowest priority based upon survey feedback.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Recyclable Design for Retaining High Solar Absorptivity of the Media in CSP

Efficient thermal energy storage is pivotal to lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In solid-particle systems, however, prolonged high-temperature service degrades particle solar absorptivity, eroding overall efficiency. This project demonstrates a hydrogen-assisted recovery process that reliably restores absorptivity to >90 %, offering a practical route to sustain long-term CSP performance. Bench-scale investigations mapped the reduction kinetics of optically faded particles across hydrogen concentrations, temperatures, and residence times. Coupling mass-spectrometric monitoring with machine-learning optimization minimized energy demand while maximizing absorptivity gain. The resulting process window—moderate hydrogen partial pressures, 15–30 min dwell times, and temperatures well below initial calcination levels—cuts energy consumption well below that of incumbent re-blackening methods. A prototype recovery reactor processed multiple 2 kg batches with repeatable outcomes, confirming scalability and operational robustness. Integrated techno-economic analysis indicates material and operating cost reductions exceeding 15 % relative to conventional particle replacement or chemical re-coating, translating directly into lower LCOE for next-generation CSP facilities. By uniting fundamental reaction-kinetics insight with pragmatic engineering, this work advances the solid-particle pathway, delivering a cost-effective, field-deployable solution to one of CSP’s key durability challenges and strengthening the commercial outlook for high-temperature renewable power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Benchmarking image processing techniques for porosity measurement in polymer additive manufacturing: Review and experimental analysis

An image processing workflow is proposed for porosity measurement in polymer additive manufacturing. Various techniques, including global and local thresholding, region growing, and K-means clustering, were applied to microscopic images of carbon fiber reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (CF-ABS) and benchmarked for their ability to accurately measure porosity. Global methods included Otsu, minimum error, iterative, and entropy-based thresholding, while local methods included Niblack, Bernsen, Sauvola, and Bradley-Roth algorithms. Artificial uneven illumination was introduced to test local adaptive thresholds. Results showed significant differences in porosity values across methods. Otsu, region growing, and K-means clustering excelled under uniform illumination, while Sauvola and Bradley-Roth performed better with uneven illumination. Comparison with X-ray computed tomography (XCT) revealed slightly lower porosity values (2.55 %) than optimized methods (2.73–2.79 %) due to XCT's lower resolution excluding smaller pores. While XCT offers finer pore detection, it limits sample volume and underestimates porosity due to spatial variation. Validation using artificial grayscale images with 5 % porosity confirmed that Otsu, Bradley-Roth, region growing, and Sauvola algorithms produced accurate results. Although tested on a single material system, these methods can be adapted to others with optimization. In conclusion, given XCT's high computational and time costs, this study highlights suitable image processing techniques as cost-effective alternatives for porosity analysis in polymer composites.

Additive manufacturing↗