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At least 739 records · Page 41

Evolution of Electric Sector Water Use Under Alternative Electricity Futures

Increasing competition for water resources in the United States could create future challenges for allocating and using thermal cooling water in the U.S. electric power sector. While thermal power plant retirements and the growth of wind and solar technologies can reduce national aggregate power sector cooling water use, local water constraints and growing demand for agricultural or municipal supply could create greater needs for higher-cost alternative water supplies such as groundwater or recycled wastewater. For some regions, these incentives could change future electricity planning and operational decisions. These relationships and impacts are studied here using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a national electric sector planning model that has recently been upgraded to include a highly detailed representation of thermal cooling water demand and supply. Thermal power technologies are differentiated by both cooling technology and water source type to track and constrain thermal cooling water use in a way that incorporates both physical and legal water considerations in the United States. This capability is exercised under a range of electricity sector futures with alternative technology costs, fuel prices, and water constraints to illustrate ways that U.S. electric sector water use could evolve under uncertain future electric sector drivers. In exploring changes to regional generation and transmission planning and operation, water requirements, and cost, we highlight the environmental and economic impacts of future power sector water decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mantle Plume Magmatism in Elysium Planitia as Constrained by InSight Seismic Observations

Based on cratering statistics, there has been active volcanism in the last 100 Ma and possibly the last 1 to 10 Ma in both central Elysium Planitia and in the Cerberus Fossae region of south-eastern Elysium. Seismic measurements by the InSight mission show a strong concentration of seismicity in Cerberus Fossae which are interpreted as due to magma transport along dike systems. Together, these observations strongly support the existence of geologically recent and possibly of currently active magmatism in Elysium. InSight seismic observations were also used to construct seismic velocity models for the martian mantle. These models are effectively a regional aver-age of the seismic velocity structure for the Elysium region, where both the InSight lander and most of the measured seismic events are located. These seismic velocity models have been interpreted in terms of the lithospheric thickness and mantle potential temperature. Khan et al. found a lithospheric thickness of 400 to 600 km and a mantle potential temperature of 1325 to 1425 °C. Durán et al. found a lithospheric thickness of ~450 km and a mantle potential tempera-ture of 1375-1475 °C. Drilleau et al. found a thermal lithosphere of 420-660 km and a mantle potential temperature of 1380-1560 °C. In this study, we combine these InSight seismic observations with finite element mantle plume magma production models to place new constraints on the properties of the mantle beneath Elysium Planitia.

Walter S Kiefer↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The vertical-velocity skewness in the inertial sublayer of turbulent wall flows

Empirical evidence is provided that within the inertial sublayer (i.e. logarithmic region) of adiabatic turbulent flows over smooth walls, the skewness of the vertical-velocity component 𝑆 𝑤 displays universal behaviour, being a positive constant and constrained within the range 𝑆 𝑤 ≈ 0.1–0.16, regardless of flow configuration and Reynolds number. A theoretical model is then proposed to explain this behaviour, including the observed range of variations of 𝑆 𝑤 . The proposed model clarifies why 𝑆 𝑤 cannot be predicted from down-gradient closure approximations routinely employed in large-scale meteorological and climate models. The proposed model also offers an alternative and implementable approach for such large-scale models.

turbulent boundary layers↗

Thermal activation signatures of the Anderson insulator and the Wigner solid forming near ν = 1

When interactions overcome disorder, integer quantum Hall plateaus support topological phases with different bulk insulators. In the center of the ν = 1 plateau the bulk is an Anderson-type insulator, while in the flanks of the plateau the bulk is the integer quantum Hall Wigner solid. We find that the activation energy along the ν = 1 plateau exhibits a very dramatic nonmonotonic dependence on the magnetic field, a dependence that is strongly correlated with the stability regions of the two phases. Furthermore, the activation energy has an unexpected minimum at the boundary between the Anderson insulator and the Wigner solid. Our findings constrain the theory of the integer quantum Hall Wigner solid, determine its thermodynamic properties, and reveal unusual behavior at the boundary between the Anderson insulator and the Wigner solid. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Genomic region associated with run timing has similar haplotypes and phenotypic effects across three lineages of Chinook salmon

Abstract Conserving life‐history variation is a stated goal of many management programs, but the most effective means by which to accomplish this are often far from clear. Early‐ and late‐migrating forms of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) face unequal pressure from natural and anthropogenic forces that may alter the impacts of genetic variation underlying heritable migration timing. Genomic regions of chromosome 28 are known to be strongly associated with migration variation in adult Chinook salmon, but it remains unclear whether there is consistent association among diverse lineages and populations in large basins such as the Columbia River. With high‐throughput genotyping (GT‐seq) and phenotyping methods, we examined the association of genetic variation in 28 markers (spanning GREB1L to ROCK1 of chromosome 28) with individual adult migration timing characteristics gleaned from passive integrated transponder recordings of over 5000 Chinook salmon from the three major phylogeographic lineages that inhabit the Columbia River Basin. Despite the strong genetic differences among them in putatively neutral genomic regions, each of the three lineages exhibited very similar genetic variants in the chromosome 28 region that were significantly associated with adult migration timing phenotypes. This is particularly notable for the interior stream‐type lineage, which exhibits an earlier and more constrained freshwater entry than the other lineages. In both interior stream‐type and interior ocean‐type lineages of Chinook salmon, heterozygotes of the most strongly associated linkage groups had largely intermediate migration timing relative to homozygotes, and results indicate codominance or possibly marginal partial dominance of the allele associated with early migration. Our results lend support to utilization of chromosome 28 variation in tracking and predicting run timing in these lineages of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River.

Willis, Stuart C.↗

Star formation in blue galaxies. I - Ultraviolet, optical, and infrared observations of NGC 4214 and NGC 4670

NGC 4214 and NGC 4760 have been observed between 1150 A and 1950 A with the IUE satellite, and new infrared and optical broad-band photometry have been obtained. The spectra of both galaxies are dominated by O stars, and, in the spectrum of NGC 4214, the C IV 1550 A line exhibits a P Cygni profile indicative of hot stars with large mass-loss rates. Although the optical spectra of both galaxies are dominated by strong narrow emission lines, no strong emission lines are seen in the UV (the observed Ly-alpha flux is dominated by geocoronal emission). Both galaxies contain giant H II region complexes in which the energy (in particular, the H-beta luminosity and the ultraviolet continuum) is provided by several hundred O stars. The comparison of the observed UVOIR energy distributions with evolutionary population models indicates that the regions observed consist of young 'bursts' of star formation superposed on an underlying old population. The initial mass function for this epoch of star formation is constrained to be similar in slope to or flatter than the Salpeter function.

Geller, M. J.↗

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Fung, I.↗

Comparison of Satellite-Derived TOA Shortwave Clear-Sky Fluxes to Estimates from GCM Simulations Constrained by Satellite Observations of Land Surface Characteristics

Clear-sky, upwelling shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere (S(sub TOA raised arrow)), simulated using the atmospheric and land model components of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), is compared to corresponding observational estimates from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor. Improvements resulting from the use of land surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain the simulations are also examined. Compared to CERES observations, CCSM3 overestimates global, annual averaged S(sub TOA raised arrow) over both land and oceans. However, regionally, CCSM3 overestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over some land and ocean areas while underestimating it over other sites. CCSM3 underestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over the Saharan and Arabian Deserts and substantial differences exist between CERES observations and CCSM3 over agricultural areas. Over selected sites, after using groundbased observations to remove systematic biases that exist in CCSM computation of S(sub TOA raised arrow), it is found that use of MODIS albedo improves the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow). Inability of coarse resolution CCSM3 simulation to resolve spatial heterogeneity of snowfall over high altitude sites such as the Tibetan Plateau causes overestimation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) in these areas. Discrepancies also exist in the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) over ocean areas as CCSM3 does not account for the effect of wind speed on ocean surface albedo. This study shows that the radiative energy budget at the TOA is improved through the use of MODIS albedo in Global Climate Models.

Anantharaj, Valentine G.↗

The Discovery of Pulsating Hot Subdwarfs in NGC 2808

We present preliminary results of a Hubble Space Telescope program to search for pulsating hot subdwarfs in the core of NGC 2808. These observations, obtained in March of 2013, were motivated by the recent discovery of such stars in the outskirts of Omega Cen. Both Omega Cen and NGC 2808 are massive globular clusters exhibiting complex stellar populations and large numbers of extreme horizontal branch stars. Our far-UV photometric monitoring of over 100 UV-bright stars has revealed at least six pulsating subdwarfs with periods ranging from 100 to 150 seconds. In the UV color-magnitude diagram of NGC 2808, all six of these stars lie immediately below the canonical horizontal branch, a region populated by the subluminous blue hook stars.Three of these six pulsators also have low-resolution far-UV spectroscopy that is sufficient to broadly constrain their atmospheric abundances and effective temperatures. Curiously, the spectroscopic and photometric data do not exhibit the uniformity one might expect from a well-defined instability strip.

Hubble Space Telescope↗

Global High Resolution Crustal Magnetic Field at the Surface of the Moon from Low-Altitude Lunar Prospector Magnetic Gradient Data

We derived new vector gradients based models of crustal magnetic field at the lunar surface with data from the Lunar Prospector (LP) satellite using two model parameterization approaches: a global set of 35820 1° spaced (~30 km) equal area monopoles at 20 km below the surface (O’Brien and Parker, 1994; Olsen et al., 2017) and combined results of subsets of 100000 0.66° spaced monopoles at the same depth. We use the scheme of iteratively reweighted least-squares inversion to compute the initial model. Then the amplitudes of these monopoles are determined by minimizing the misfit to the components together with the global average of |Br| at the ellipsoid surface (i.e. applying a L1 model regularization of Br). In previous approaches using vector fields for modeling, we found that external field contamination leads to spurious anomalies in the downward continued field models even with stringent data selection criteria and ad-hoc noise removal techniques (e.g., satellite’s position in the Moon’s wake w.r.t. the solar wind and in the Earth’s magnetotail, internal/external dipoles fields removal, low-order polynomial removal, joint equivalent source cross-validation technique and visually removing remaining anomalous segments). On the other hand, with the use of gradients-only data (along-track first finite differences), we were able to completely bypass the ad-hoc techniques. Similar processing of Kaguya magnetic data, which have only higher altitude coverage over the most of the Moon except in the region of the South Pole–Aitken (SPA) basin, completely misses some of the anomalies seen in the Lunar Prospector data. The combined Lunar Prospector and Kaguya gradient-based models also severely degrade the derivation of the anomaly fields in many regions. Euler analysis of isolated anomaly features from the Reiner Gamma swirl suggests top depths of about 0.3 to 1.5 km and center depths of 10-14 km; in the region between Stein and Vallier craters north of the SPA basin our analysis suggests top depths of around 1.5 km and center depths of 13-15 km. With the spectral depth determination techniques, the SPA basin region yields depths to the base of magnetization ranging between 15 and 40 km. Three-dimensional modeling and the bulk magnetization determinations of the sources constrained by the Euler and spectral methods is underway.

Gradient↗

VLTI-MATISSE L- and N-Band Aperture-Synthesis Imaging of the Unclassified B[e] star FS Canis Majoris

Context. FS Canis Majoris (FS CMa, HD 45677) is an unclassified B[e] star surrounded by an inclined dust disk. The evolutionary stage of FS CMa is still debated. Perpendicular to the circumstellar disk, a bipolar outflow was detected. Infrared aperture-synthesis imaging provides us with a unique opportunity to study the disk structure. Aims. Our aim is to study the intensity distribution of the disk of FS CMa in the mid-infrared L and N bands. Methods. We performed aperture-synthesis imaging of FS CMa with the MATISSE instrument (Multi AperTure mid-Infrared SpectroScopic Experiment) in the low spectral resolution mode to obtain images in the L and N bands. We computed radiative transfer models that reproduce the L- and N-band intensity distributions of the resolved disks. Results. We present L- and N-band aperture-synthesis images of FS CMa reconstructed in the wavelength bands of 3.4–3.8 and 8.6–9.0 μm. In the L-band image, the inner rim region of an inclined circumstellar disk and the central object can be seen with a spatial resolution of 2.7 milliarcsec (mas). An inner disk cavity with an angular diameter of ~6 × 12 mas is resolved. The L-band disk consists of a bright northwestern (NW) disk region and a much fainter southeastern (SE) region. The images suggest that we are looking at the bright inner wall of the NW disk rim, which is on the far side of the disk. In the N band, only the bright NW disk region is seen. In addition to deriving the inclination and the inner disk radius, fitting the reconstructed brightness distributions via radiative transfer modelling allows one to constrain the innermost disk structure, in particular the shape of the inner disk rim.

techniques↗

An Evaluation of Biomass Burning Aerosol Mass, Extinction, and Size Distribution in Geos Using Observations From Camp2EX

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through radiative forcing, serving as cloud condensation nuclei, and air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulphate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aside from aerosol mass, extinction within GEOS is a function of ambient relative humidity and an assumed particle size distribution. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too aggressive within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module with GEOS may be necessary.

Aerosol Mass↗

Evaluation of GEOS Aerosols Using CAMP2Ex Observations

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through direct and semi-direct effects, as well as influencing air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm from AERONET and MODIS to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulfate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aerosol extinction within GEOS is a function of the mass of different aerosol species, the ambient relative humidity, the assumed spectral optical properties, and particle size distribution per species. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too high within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a single mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module within GEOS may be necessary.

Allison Collow↗

Characteristics of Impact Craters and Interior Deposits: Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Volatiles in the Highlands of Mars

The martian southern highlands contain impact craters that display pristine to degraded morphologies, and preserve a record of degradation that can be attributed to fluvial, eolian, mass wasting, volcanic and impact-related processes. However, the relative degree of modification by these processes and the amounts of material contributed to crater interiors are not well constrained. Impact craters (D>10 km) within Terra Cimmeria (0deg-60degS, 190deg-240degW), Terra Tyrrhena (0deg-30degS, 260deg-310degW) and Noachis Terra (20deg-50degS, 310deg-340degW) are being examined to better understand the degradational history and evolution of highland terrains. The following scientific objectives will be accomplished. 1) Determine the geologic processes that modified impact craters (and surrounding highland terrains). 2) Determine the sources (e.g. fluvial, lacustrine, eolian, mass wasting, volcanic, impact melt) and relative amounts of material composing crater interior deposits. 3) Document the relationships between impact crater degradation and highland fluvial systems. 4) Determine the spatial and temporal relationships between degradational processes on local and regional scales. And 5) develop models of impact crater (and highland) degradation that can be applied to these and other areas of the martian highlands. The results of this study will be used to constrain the geologic, hydrologic and climatic evolution of Mars and identify environments in which subsurface water might be present or evidence for biologic activity might be preserved.

Mest, S. C.↗

Optical Characterisation of Suspended Particles in the Mackenzie River Plume (Canadian Arctic Ocean) and Implications for Ocean Colour Remote Sensing

Climate change significantly impacts Arctic shelf regions in terms of air temperature, ultraviolet radiation, melting of sea ice, precipitation, thawing of permafrost and coastal erosion. Direct consequences have been observed on the increasing Arctic river flow and a large amount of organic carbon sequestered in soils at high latitudes since the last glacial maximum can be expected to be delivered to the Arctic Ocean during the coming decade. Monitoring the fluxes and fate of this terrigenous organic carbon is problematic in such sparsely populated regions unless remote sensing techniques can be developed and proved to be operational. The main objective of this study is to develop an ocean colour algorithm to operationally monitor dynamics of suspended particulate matter (SPM) on the Mackenzie River continental shelf (Canadian Arctic Ocean) using satellite imagery. The water optical properties are documented across the study area and related to concentrations of SPM and particulate organic carbon (POC). Robust SPM and POC : SPM proxies are identified, such as the light backscattering and attenuation coefficients, and relationships are established between these optical and biogeochemical parameters. Following a semi-analytical approach, a regional SPM quantification relationship is obtained for the inversion of the water reflectance signal into SPM concentration. This relationship is reproduced based on independent field optical measurements. It is successfully applied to a selection of MODIS satellite data which allow estimating fluxes at the river mouth and monitoring the extension and dynamics of the Mackenzie River surface plume in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Good agreement is obtained with field observations representative of the whole water column in the river delta zone where terrigenous SPM is mainly constrained (out of short periods of maximum river outflow). Most of the seaward export of SPM is observed to occur within the west side of the river mouth. Future work will require the validation of the developed SPM regional algorithm based on match-ups with field measurements, then the routine application to ocean colour satellite data in order to better estimate the fluxes and fate of SPM and POC delivered by the Mackenzie River to the Arctic Ocean.

Mackenzie River plume↗

Improved Simulations of Biomass Burning Aerosol Optical Properties and Lifetimes in the NASA GEOS Model during the ORACLES-I Campaign

In order to improve aerosol representation in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, we evaluated simulations of the aerosol properties and transport over the southern African biomass burning source and outflow region using observations made during the first deployment of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) field campaign in September 2016. An example case study of September 24 was analyzed in detail, during which aircraft-based in-situ and remote sensing observations showed the presence of a multi-layered smoke plume structure with significant vertical variation in single scattering albedo (SSA). Our baseline GEOS simulations were not able to represent the observed SSA variation, nor the observed organic aerosol-to-black carbon ratio (OA : BC). Analyzing the simulated smoke age suggests that the higher altitude, less absorbing smoke plume was younger (~4 days), while the lower altitude and more absorbing smoke plume was older (~7 days). We hypothesize a chemical or microphysical loss process exists to explain the change in aerosol absorption as the smoke plume ages, and we apply a simple 6-day e-folding loss rate to the model hydrophilic biomass burning OA to mimic this process. Adding this loss process required some adjustment to the model assumed scaling factors of aerosol emissions to conserve the regional aerosol loading and further improve the simulated OA : BC ratio. Accordingly, we have increased our biomass burning emissions of OA by 60 % and biomass burning BC by 15 %. We also utilized the ORACLES airborne observations to better constrain the simulation of aerosol optical properties, adjusting the assumed particle size, hygroscopic growth, and absorption. Our final GEOS model simulation with additional OA loss and updated optics showed a better performance in simulating AOD and SSA compared to independent ground and space-based retrievals for the entire month of September 2016, including the OMI Aerosol Index. In terms of radiative implications of our model adjustments, the final GEOS simulation suggested a decreased atmospheric warming of about 10 % (~2 W m -2 ) over the south-east Atlantic region and above the stratocumulus cloud decks compared to the model baseline simulations. These results improve the representation of the smoke age, transport, and optical properties in Earth system models.

aerosols↗

Far-Infrared Water Emissions from Magnetohydrodynamic Shock Waves

Nondissociative, magnetohydrodynamic, C-type shock waves are expected to be a prodigious source of far-infrared water emissions in dense interstellar regions. We have constructed a model to calculate the farinfrared H20 line spectra that emerge from such shocks. Using the best estimates currently available for the radiative cooling rate and the degree of ion-neutral coupling within the shocked gas, we modeled the temperature structure of MHD shocks using standard methods in which the charged and neutral particles are treated separately as two weakly coupled, interpenetrating fluids. Then we solved the equations of statistical equilibrium to find the populations of the lowest 179 and 170 rotational states of ortho- and para-H2O We have completed an extensive parameter study to determine the emergent H2O line luminosities as a function of preshock density in the range n(H2) equals 10(exp 4) - 10(sup 6.5)/cc and shock velocity in the range upsilon(sub s) = 5 - 40 km/ s. We find that numerous rotational transitions of water are potentially observable using the Infrared Space Observatory and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite and may be used as diagnostics of the shocked gas. We have also computed the rotational and ro-vibrational emissions expected from H2, CO, and OH, and we discuss how complementary observations of such emissions may be used to further constrain the shock conditions. In common with previous studies, we come close to matching the observed H2, and high-J CO emissions from the Orion-KL star-forming region on the basis of a single shock model. We present our predictions for the strengths of H2O line emission from the Orion shock, and we show how our results may be scaled to other regions where molecular shocks are likely to be present.

Kaufman, Michael J.↗