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A Comprehensive Review of Latent Space Dynamics Identification Algorithms for Intrusive and Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order-Modeling

Numerical solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) have been widely employed for simulating physical systems. However, the computational cost remains a major bottleneck in various scientific and engineering applications, which has motivated the development of reduced-order models (ROMs). Recently, machine-learning-based ROMs have gained significant popularity and are promising for addressing some limitations of traditional ROM methods, especially for advection dominated systems. In this chapter, we focus on a particular framework known as Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), which transforms the high-fidelity data, governed by a PDE, to simpler and low-dimensional latent-space data, governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These ODEs can be learned and subsequently interpolated to make ROM predictions. Each building block of LaSDI can be easily modulated depending on the application, which makes the LaSDI framework highly flexible. In particular, we present strategies to enforce the laws of thermodynamics into LaSDI models (tLaSDI), enhance robustness in the presence of noise through the weak form (WLaSDI), select high-fidelity training data efficiently through active learning (gLaSDI, GPLaSDI), and quantify the ROM prediction uncertainty through Gaussian processes (GPLaSDI). We demonstrate the performance of different LaSDI approaches on Burgers equation, a non-linear heat conduction problem, and a plasma physics problem, showing that LaSDI algorithms can achieve relative errors of less than a few percent and up to thousands of times speed-ups.

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (c↗

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High-Fidelity Simulations of Gravity Currents Using a High-Order Finite-Difference Spectral Vanishing Viscosity Approach

This numerical work investigates the potential of a high-order finite-difference spectral vanishing viscosity approach to simulate gravity currents at high Reynolds numbers. The method introduces targeted numerical dissipation at small scales through altering the discretisation of the second derivatives of the viscous terms in the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations to mimic the spectral vanishing viscosity (SVV) operator, originally designed for the regularisation of spectral element method (SEM) solutions of pure advection problems. Using a sixth-order accurate finite-difference scheme, the adoption of the SVV method is straightforward and comes with a negligible additional computational cost. In order to assess the ability of this high-order finite-difference spectral vanishing viscosity approach, we performed large-eddy simulations (LES) of a gravity current in a channelised lock-exchange set-up with our SVV model and with the well-known explicit static and dynamic Smagorinsky sub-grid scale (SGS) models. The obtained data are compared with a direct numerical simulation (DNS) based on more than 800 million mesh nodes, and with experimental measurements. A framework for the energy budget is introduced to investigate the behaviour of the gravity current. First, it is found that the DNS is in good agreement with the experimental data for the evolution of the front location and velocity field as well as for the stirring and mixing inside the gravity current. Secondly, the LES performed with less than 0.4% of the total number of mesh nodes compared to the DNS, can reproduce the main features of the gravity currents, with the SVV model yielding slightly more accurate results. It is also found that the dynamic Smagorinsky model performs better than its static version. For the present study, the static and dynamic Smagorinsky models are 1.8 and 2.5 times more expensive than the SVV model, because the latter does not require the calculation of explicit SGS terms in the Navier-Stokes equations nor spatial filtering operations.

direct numerical simulation↗

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Chemical Reactivity of DFT-Simulated Liquid Water with Hydrated Electrons via the Dual Descriptor

Modeling the various properties of liquid water, particularly its reactivity, has been a longstanding challenge for simulation methods. Recently, ab initio simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) have come to the fore as tenable methods for calculating the properties and reactivity of water, with varying degrees of success for different exchange-correlation functionals. In particular, hybrid-GGA and meta-GGA functionals have been shown to reproduce many of the structural, dynamical, and energetic properties of water to a high degree of accuracy relative to their computational cost. Here, we show that the dual descriptor (DD) measure of nucleophilicity and electrophilicity, which is sometimes used to elucidate organic chemistry reaction mechanisms, can also be used to characterize the reactivity of DFTsimulated liquid water. The DD is especially apt for understanding the reactivity of excess electrons with water as its calculation explicitly involves adding and removing an excess electron from a reference system. We use the DD to explore the reactivity of water simulated using three different DFT functionals: the LDA functional (LDA), a hybrid-GGA functional (PBE0), and a hybrid meta- GGA functional (SCAN0). Using the DD, we show that the SCAN0 functional with the standard 25% Hartree–Fock exchange produces simulated liquid water with many regions that are far more reactive than either PBE0 or LDA. To understand the implications of these highly reactive regions, we then add a strong nucleophile in the form of an excess electron and find that although PBE0 and LDA predict stable hydrated electrons, the excess electron reacts nearly instantaneously with SCAN0 water via proton abstraction to form a hydrogen atom and hydroxide ion. We show that the DD provides the ability to not only predict whether or not liquid water will react with a hydrated electron but also which particular waters will be involved solely from analyzing pure water configurations generated with each functional. We rationalize this result in terms of the known trap-seeking behavior of injected hydrated electrons, which are able to find the most electronegative region in bulk water. These results highlight the utility of the dual descriptor as a fast and interpretable method for investigating condensed-phase reactivity with excess electrons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An experimentally informed design process for future inertial confinement fusion facilities

The achievement of ignition in the laboratory has renewed interest in defining the requirements for a future high-gain inertial confinement fusion (ICF) facility. Our best chance of predicting future ICF performance is with 3-D radiation hydrodynamic simulations that have been benchmarked against experimental data, but their high computational cost is prohibitive for use in practical design studies. We introduce a hierarchical approach where 3-D simulations are tuned to match experimental measurements and used to train 3-D degradation models in 1-D simulations allowing for accurate predictions over the entire OMEGA direct-drive database. A genetic algorithm was used in combination with the trained 1-D simulations to search for optimal direct-drive implosion designs at driver energies ranging from 20 kJ to 10 MJ. As the fidelity of 3-D codes improves, this approach will provide a viable experimentally informed tool for defining the next ICF facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining Reactive Quantum-Mechanical Molecular-Dynamics Simulations with Mutagenesis, Crystallography, and Enzyme Kinetics to Reveal Plausible Steps of Isocyanide Hydratase Catalysis

A complete understanding of enzyme mechanisms requires atomistic details of chemical reactions. Quantum-based molecular dynamics simulations (QMD) are a potential source of this information, but trade-offs between accuracy and computational cost have limited their use. We previously developed extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (XL-BOMD) methods that leverage a negligible compromise in accuracy to substantially decrease the cost of QMD simulations. Here, we develop a reactive QMD approach using the latest XL-BOMD formulation, which enables efficient simulations of highly reactive systems, and use it to investigate mechanisms of intermediate formation in isocyanide hydratase (ICH) catalysis. In QMD simulations, molecular analogs of ICH active site residues reacted with para-nitrophenyl isocyanide, forming a thioimidate. Analysis of simulated atomic configurational and charge dynamics revealed a pathway where protonation of the isocyanide carbon occurs prior to thioimidate formation and suggested a possible role of Asp17 as a proton donor in the early phase of ICH catalysis. To test whether the pathway seen using the reactive QMD approach might be relevant to ICH catalysis, we performed X-ray crystallography and pre-steady-state enzyme kinetics studies of wild-type and D17N mutant ICH. Both the structure and kinetics are sensitive to the D17N mutation in a manner that is consistent with the order of the reaction steps seen in the simulations. Mobile protons play essential roles in many enzymes, yet they are difficult to observe experimentally, making the ordering of proton-dependent steps ambiguous in many enzyme mechanisms. The ability to directly simulate model reactions for the design of experiments that provide information about enzyme mechanisms involving mobile protons demonstrates the significance of our reactive QMD approach and motivates further biological applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Encrypted model predictive control design for security to cyberattacks

Abstract In recent years, cyber‐security of networked control systems has become crucial, as these systems are vulnerable to targeted cyberattacks that compromise the stability, integrity, and safety of these systems. In this work, secure and private communication links are established between sensor–controller and controller–actuator elements using semi‐homomorphic encryption to ensure cyber‐security in model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems. Specifically, Paillier cryptosystem is implemented for encryption‐decryption operations in the communication links. Cryptosystems, in general, work on a subset of integers. As a direct consequence of this nature of encryption algorithms, quantization errors arise in the closed‐loop MPC of nonlinear systems. Thus, the closed‐loop encrypted MPC is designed with a certain degree of robustness to the quantization errors. Furthermore, the trade‐off between the accuracy of the encrypted MPC and the computational cost is discussed. Finally, two chemical process examples are employed to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed encrypted MPC design.

Suryavanshi, Atharva↗

Investigating the influence of particle distribution on force and torque statistics using hierarchical machine learning

An accurate representation of hydrodynamic force and torque experienced by every particle in a distribution can be obtained from particle resolved (PR) simulations. These unique quantities are influenced by the deterministic position of surrounding particles. However, systems simulated with this methodology are typically limited to particles due to the involved computational cost. This resource requirement is a major bottleneck in analyzing the effect of variations in particle distribution. Here, this article attempts to address this bottleneck by availing relatively inexpensive deep learning models. The surrogate models that we employ in this article use a physics‐based hierarchical framework and symmetry‐preserving neural networks to achieve robustness with limited training data. This article first performs additional generalizability tests on PR data of distinct distributions that are not involved in the training process. The models are then deployed on several different particle distributions. Impact of clustering and structure on the observed statistics are investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active Learning A Neural Network Model For Gold Clusters & Bulk From Sparse First Principles Training Data

Small metal clusters are of fundamental scientific interest and of tremendous significance in catalysis. These nanoscale clusters display diverse geometries and structural motifs depending on the cluster size; a knowledge of this size-dependent structural motifs and their dynamical evolution has been of longstanding interest. Given the high computational cost of first-principles calculations, molecular modeling and atomistic simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) has proven to be an important complementary tool to aid this understanding. Classical MD typically employ predefined functional forms which limits their ability to capture such complex size-dependent structural and dynamical transformation. Neural Network (NN) based potentials represent flexible alternatives and in principle, well-trained NN potentials can provide high level of flexibility, transferability and accuracy on-par with the reference model used for training. A major challenge, however, is that NN models are interpolative and requires large quantities (similar to 10 4 or greater) of training data to ensure that the model adequately samples the energy landscape both near and far-from-equilibrium. A highly desirable goal is minimize the number of training data, especially if the underlying reference model is first-principles based and hence expensive. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) scheme that trains a NN model on-the-fly with minimal amount of first-principles based training data. Our AL workflow is initiated with a sparse training dataset (similar to 1 to 5 data points) and is updated on-the-fly via a Nested Ensemble Monte Carlo scheme that iteratively queries the energy landscape in regions of failure and updates the training pool to improve the network performance. Using a representative system of gold clusters, we demonstrate that our AL workflow can train a NN with similar to 500 total reference calculations. Using an extensive DFT test set of similar to 1100 configurations, we show that our AL-NN is able to accurately predict both the DFT energies and the forces for clusters of a myriad of different sizes. Our NN predictions are within 30 meV/atom and 40 meV/angstrom of the reference DFT calculations. Moreover, our AL-NN model also adequately captures the various size-dependent structural and dynamical properties of gold clusters in excellent agreement with DFT calculations and available experiments. We finally show that our AL-NN model also captures bulk properties reasonably well, even though they were not included in the training data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Transitory sensitivity in automatic chemical kinetic mechanism analysis

Abstract Detailed chemical kinetic mechanisms are necessary for resolving many important chemical processes. As the chemistry of smaller molecules has become better grounded and quantum chemistry calculations have become cheaper, kineticists have become interested in constructing progressively larger kinetic mechanisms to model increasingly complex chemical processes. These large kinetic mechanisms prove incredibly difficult to refine and time‐consuming to interpret. Traditional sensitivity analysis on a large mechanism can range from inconvenient to practically impossible without special techniques to reduce the computational cost. We first present a new time‐local sensitivity analysis we term transitory sensitivity analysis. Transitory sensitivity analysis is demonstrated in an example to accurately identify traditionally sensitive reactions at an 18,000x speed up over traditional sensitivities. By fusing transitory sensitivity analysis with more traditional time‐local branching, pathway, and cluster analyses, we develop an algorithm for efficient automatic mechanism analysis. This automatic mechanism analysis at a time point is able to identify the reactions a target is most sensitive to using transitory sensitivity analysis and then propose hypotheses why the reaction might be sensitive using branching, pathway, and cluster analyses. We implement these algorithms within the reaction mechanism simulator (RMS) package, which enables us to report the automatic mechanism analysis results in highly readable text formats and in molecular flux diagrams.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗