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At least 739 records · Page 41

Adjoint-Based Design of Rotors using the Navier-Stokes Equations in a Noninertial Reference Frame

Optimization of rotorcraft flowfields using an adjoint method generally requires a time-dependent implementation of the equations. The current study examines an intermediate approach in which a subset of rotor flowfields are cast as steady problems in a noninertial reference frame. This technique permits the use of an existing steady-state adjoint formulation with minor modifications to perform sensitivity analyses. The formulation is valid for isolated rigid rotors in hover or where the freestream velocity is aligned with the axis of rotation. Discrete consistency of the implementation is demonstrated using comparisons with a complex-variable technique, and a number of single- and multi-point optimizations for the rotorcraft figure of merit function are shown for varying blade collective angles. Design trends are shown to remain consistent as the grid is refined.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

10 Yr Spatial and Temporal Trends of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Southeastern US Estimated Using High-resolution Satellite Data

Long-term PM2.5 exposure has been reported to be associated with various adverse health outcomes. However, most ground monitors are located in urban areas, leading to a potentially biased representation of the true regional PM2.5 levels. To facilitate epidemiological studies, accurate estimates of spatiotemporally continuous distribution of PM2.5 concentrations are essential. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used for PM2.5 concentration estimation due to its comprehensive spatial coverage. Nevertheless, an inherent disadvantage of current AOD products is their coarse spatial resolutions. For instance, the spatial resolutions of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) are 10 km and 17.6 km, respectively. In this paper, a new AOD product with 1 km spatial resolution retrieved by the multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm was used. A two-stage model was developed to account for both spatial and temporal variability in the PM2.5-AOD relationship by incorporating the MAIAC AOD, meteorological fields, and land use variables as predictors. Our study area is in the southeastern US, centered at the Atlanta Metro area, and data from 2001 to 2010 were collected from various sources. The model was fitted for each year individually, and we obtained model fitting R2 ranging from 0.71 to 0.85, MPE from 1.73 to 2.50 g m3, and RMSPE from 2.75 to 4.10 g m3. In addition, we found cross validation R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.78, MPE from 2.00 to 3.01 g m3, and RMSPE from 3.12 to 5.00 g m3, indicating a good agreement between the estimated and observed values. Spatial trends show that high PM2.5 levels occurred in urban areas and along major highways, while low concentrations appeared in rural or mountainous areas. A time series analysis was conducted to examine temporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that the PM2.5 levels in the study area followed a generally declining trend from 2001 to 2010 and decreased about 20 during the period. However, there was an exception of an increase in year 2005, which is attributed to elevated sulfate concentrations in the study area in warm months of 2005. An investigation of the impact of wild and prescribed fires on PM2.5 levels in 2007 suggests a positive relationship between them.

particulate matter (PM2.5)↗

Simultaneous lidar profiling of water vapor, aerosol, and wind over the eastern Pacific and implications for observational challenges on clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity

Moist convective processes and related circulations are key components of the Earth’s climate system. Improving our understanding of moisture and cloud processes over oceans is especially challenging due to observational limitations, but also important due to the large radiative effects of cloud over ocean as well as the ties to local and global-scale circulations. A unique dataset for addressing these topics was collected over 5 flights with the NASA HALO (water vapor DIAL and aerosol HSRL) and DAWN (Doppler wind) lidar systems onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the spring 2019 ADM-Aeolus Cal/Val test flight campaign. High-resolution water vapor, aerosol/cloud, and wind profiles were simultaneously collected and complimented with in situ high-resolution dropsonde measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and wind profiles. Airborne lidar measurements of these key variables captured both large-scale spatial variability across different cloud and atmospheric conditions as well as finer features, providing insight into processes from large-scale circulations down to aerosol/cloud interactions. The 5 flights spanned the northeast Pacific and southwest U.S. from 6 N to 52 N and 112 W to 157 W and captured several features of interest including moist layers from the ascending region of the Hadley circulation, very dry layers above midlatitude marine stratocumulus and cloud-free planetary boundary layers, and cloud top height and spatial variability. High covariance of aerosol and water vapor in the free troposphere was also observed for the first time. Preliminary analysis of these data sets will be presented as they apply to clouds and circulations, supplemented by model reanalysis to inform how regional water vapor structure and large-scale motion may contribute to observed shallow cloud formations and other meteorological processes that underpin our current understanding of how these state variables couple to impact the Earth’s weather and climate systems. The potential of complementary measurements in future field campaigns will also be mentioned.

Brian James Carroll↗

The Effects of Plasma Application on Radish Seeds with Implications for Space Crop Production

In extended space missions, the astronaut diet will consist mostly of prepackaged foods. This could result in nutritional deficiencies due to the gradual breakdown of certain vitamins. To address this deficiency, fresh produce must be grown from seed during spaceflight. Stored seeds, however, can be vulnerable to microbial contamination which could jeopardize plant health and crop food safety. To alleviate this concern, the current practice is to sanitize seeds on the ground before spaceflight to the International Space Station (ISS). Methods of seed sanitization include alcohol soaking and chlorine gas fumigation, which have harmful effects on the environment and human health. Plasma application is a new sanitization approach that avoids these negative side effects while potentially elevating germination rate and improving growth rate; yet plasma application requires specific exposure time, power, and pressure to achieve these benefits. In the present study, Raphanus sativus ‘Cherry Belle’ radish seeds were exposed to either low pressure (Diener) plasma or atmospheric pressure plasma for varying increments of time (30s-1200s). Data collected includes immediate germination rate (viability) and microbial log reduction. Additionally, seeds were stored for later germination rate testing. Microbial assay controls have highlighted variability in initial microbial load between individual seeds, and further work is being performed to determine the standard microbial load of an untreated seed. In some samples, a negative log reduction was observed after plasma treatment encouraging further study to determine if the plasma is perforating the seed coat and releasing endophytic microbes. Treatment with Diener plasma shows promising microbial log reduction, but lower viability. In contrast, treatment with atmospheric pressure plasma offers high viability, but poor microbial log reduction. Further study will aim at determining whether plasma treatment is effective at not only sanitization, but sterilization. This research was funded by a NASA grant at the Kennedy Space Center.

Plasma↗

NASA Ground-based Layered Pressure Vessels Materials Report

A significant portion of Layered Pressure Vessels (LPVs) manufactured for NASA in the 1950s and ’60s are of non-code construction. These vessels were constructed to the standards of individual manufacturers rather than an industry or consensus standard and often contain legacy or proprietary materials, which have poor or no characterization. Obtaining correct material properties is the first step in assuring vessel safety and predicting life and critical failure modes before they happen. This report details the efforts of the LPV Project related to material properties and characterization. The goal in testing materials from deconstructed vessels was to provide material characterization utilizing modern test methods that would give a strong probabilistic base as an option for future analysis. ASTM E1820, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fracture Toughness was used for fracture toughness; ASTM E1921, Standard Test Method for Determination of Reference Temperature, T0, for Ferritic Steels in the Transition Range for transition temperature; and ASTM E647, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fatigue Crack Growth Rates for fatigue crack growth. Particular focus was placed on determination of transition temperature through evaluation of the T0 reference temperature in accordance with ASTM E1921. Transition temperature testing allows for a probabilistic analysis of vessel materials that may be operating at temperatures below the transition from ductile tearing to brittle cleavage failure. This test method was not available at the time of construction and has proved invaluable to the characterization of older ferritic steels. The values reported are specific to the largest body of materials found in the current NASA fleet, but do not claim to be all inclusive. As demonstrated in this report, some materials contain extreme lot-to-lot variability. In some cases, this can be comfortably bounded by worst case probabilistic methods, however it is always recommended that vessel specific data be collected in as much depth as possible to ensure correct assumptions and avoid unduly restricting vessel usage.

Layered Pressure Vessel↗

The Effects of Plasma Application on Radish Seeds with Implications for Space Crop Production

In extended space missions, the astronaut diet will consist mostly of prepackaged foods. This could result in nutritional deficiencies due to the gradual breakdown of certain vitamins. To address this deficiency, fresh produce must be grown from seed during spaceflight. Stored seeds, however, can be vulnerable to microbial contamination which could jeopardize plant health and crop food safety. To alleviate this concern, the current practice is to sanitize seeds on the ground before spaceflight to the International Space Station (ISS). Methods of seed sanitization include alcohol soaking and chlorine gas fumigation, which have harmful effects on the environment and human health. Plasma application is a new sanitization approach that avoids these negative side effects while potentially elevating germination rate and improving growth rate; yet plasma application requires specific exposure time, power, and pressure to achieve these benefits. In the present study, Raphanus sativus ‘Cherry Belle’ radish seeds were exposed to either low pressure (Diener) plasma or atmospheric pressure plasma for varying increments of time (30s-1200s). Data collected includes immediate germination rate (viability) and microbial log reduction. Additionally, seeds were stored for later germination rate testing. Microbial assay controls have highlighted variability in initial microbial load between individual seeds, and further work is being performed to determine the standard microbial load of an untreated seed. In some samples, a negative log reduction was observed after plasma treatment encouraging further study to determine if the plasma is perforating the seed coat and releasing endophytic microbes. Treatment with Diener plasma shows promising microbial log reduction, but lower viability. In contrast, treatment with atmospheric pressure plasma offers high viability, but poor microbial log reduction. Further study will aim at determining whether plasma treatment is effective at not only sanitization, but sterilization. This research was funded by a NASA grant at the Kennedy Space Center.

Space Crop Production↗

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Suitable Venus Flytrap Habitat in an Effort to Inform Conservation, Seed Banking, and Reintroduction in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills Regions

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗

Carolina Coastal Plain​ Ecological Forecasting

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗

Using Desis and EO-1 Hyperion Reflectance Time Series for the Assessment of Vegetation Traits and Gross Primary Production (GPP)

This study evaluates the potential of the DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) visible through near-infrared (VNIR) surface reflectance to augment the EO-1 Hyperion full spectrum (400-2400 nm) reflectance collection over vegetated flux sites to extend the reflectance time series up to the present. We compared DESIS and Hyperion surface reflectance magnitude and variability at a pseudo-invariant site (PICS) and a vegetated flux site (VFS). VNIR reflectance magnitudes between the two sensors did not significantly differ at the PICS. However, DESIS variability was higher, likely due to differences in the data acquisition time and observation geometry. Using empirical and biophysical models, both DESIS and Hyperion datasets captured the seasonal variations in gross primary production (GPP) and canopy bio-physical parameters such as chlorophyll content, leaf area index (LAI), and senescent material at the VFS. Differences in the magnitudes of the bio-physical parameters were observed, likely due to the differences in the sensors spectral range and resolution. Using VNIR reflectance from EO-1 Hyperion with DESIS convolved to Hyperion spectral resolution to estimate canopy chlorophyll and GPP, we demonstrate that combining historic and current space-based reflectance data in a common multi-sensor approach is feasible. This is of importance for extending the reflectance record established with EO-1 Hyperion to provide continuity with the current orbital instruments (e.g., DESIS/ISS, PRISMA/ASI) and the forthcoming NASA Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), ESA CHIME and DLR EnMAP satellite missions, which is of key importance for comparisons of current and past trends in the seasonal dynamics of vegetation traits and photosynthetic function.

DESIS↗

Leveraging Resonant Terminator Orbits for the Trajectory Design of OSIRIS-APEX at (99942) Apophis

The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been approved for an extended mission (OSIRIS-APEX) to visit the asteroid (99942) Apophis. In this paper we outline a potential design for the spacecraft’s trajectory during the variable phase orbit segment of the APEX mission. This phase of the mission, nominally expected to begin in January2030, has the primary goal of collecting image and spectral data of the full asteroid surface at a wide variety of illumination conditions without requiring frequent firing of the spacecraft thrusters. This work will focus on leveraging resonant terminator orbits (RTOs) in order to satisfy these goals and the associated science requirements. Though this segment will occur after Apophis’ closest flyby of Earth in April 2029, the proposed design utilizes the current best estimates of the asteroid’s orbital elements and physical properties at that time when designing the spacecraft’s orbit.

Gavin M Brown↗

CFD Modeling of Bi-Directional PMD inside Cryogenic Propellant Tanks Onboard Parabolic Flights

Future cryogenic propulsion systems will require efficient methods with which to transfer cryogenic propellants from a depot storage tank to a customer receiver tank to minimize cost and maximize reusability. The Reduced Gravity Cryogenic Transfer project is currently developing advanced cryogenic fluid management technology and developing and validating new numerical models for three phases of transfer: line chilldown, tank chilldown, and tank fill. Additionally, multiple liquid nitrogen (LN 2 ) parabolic flight transfer rigs are being designed by universities and NASA to investigate the gravitational sensitivities that exist in these three technologies. In order to maximize the collection of low-g data during flights, it is required to extract as much (LN 2 as possible from the supply tank, despite variable gravity levels. The purpose of this paper is to present computational fluid dynamics (CFD) volume of fluid simulations of (LN 2 behavior in the supply tank onboard parabolic flights to validate the optimal design of a bi-directional propellant management device (PMD) using the commercial software FLOW-3D. A parametric study is conducted on the effects of gravity level, fill level, pore size, open area, thickness, and type of baffle on PMD performance. Based on results, the PMD as designed exceeds the targeted expulsion efficiency.

Jason Hartwig↗

Multi-Agent Control Planes for Quantum Networks: A Scalable Architecture for Autonomous Quantum Internet Management

Quantum networks are expected to enable distributed quantum computing, secure communication, and global entanglement distribution. However, operating such networks presents significant challenges, including stochastic quantum processes, fragile entanglement resources, dynamic topology, and cross-layer control requirements. Current quantum network control architectures largely rely on centralized or hierarchical controllers inspired by classical software-defined networking (SDN). While effective for small testbeds, these approaches face scalability, latency, and reliability limitations as quantum networks grow. This paper proposes a multi-agent control plane architecture for quantum networks. In this design, intelligent software agents operate at quantum nodes, repeaters, and orchestration layers, collectively managing entanglement generation, routing, purification, and scheduling. The distributed intelligence of the agent system allows the network to adapt dynamically to quantum hardware variability and environmental noise. We argue that multi-agent systems provide significant advantages over centralized control approaches, including scalability, resilience, local autonomy, and real-time adaptation. The paper discusses architectural design principles, agent coordination mechanisms, and research challenges in deploying multi-agent control planes for the emerging quantum Internet.

Alnajjar, Anees [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237101601)↗

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗

BFSVBF (BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter) [SWR-22-87] and Multi-class BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter Keras

Bats are notoriously difficult to study, therefore, identifying specific behavioral trends and the precise environmental conditions at the time of collision requires a monitoring solution that can reliably collect relevant data. To date, thermal infrared video surveillance has been extensively applied to study bats and has proven to be a powerful yet cumbersome tool. Current analytical approaches are time consuming because data processing data has not been fully automated. In the past, steps have been taken to record avian and bat activity in conjunction with complicated image processing techniques that separate species from other moving objects within the field of view (i.e. clouds and portions of the wind turbine). Once the videos are collected, the post-processing does not allow real time monitoring and identification, leading to a delay in both studying the behavior of these species and determining the effectiveness of any impact reduction strategy being studied. Moreover, object identification capability is lacking, thus limiting the usefulness of video data. To resolve these issues, we are using open source computer vision and machine learning techniques allowing for automatic detection of objects in real-time with the ability to correlate these objects with environmental variables and recording the flight paths of each object. The code has gone through five rounds of development with images used to train the models. This advancement allows for automated real-time data collection, identification, and tracking, thereby eliminating the need for long and tedious post-analysis processing of the videos. We will discuss the two open source and publicly available machine learning models developed within this scope of this work: 1) a binary model with a 97.5% accuracy in identifying the difference between an object and an empty scene, including wind turbine and clouds; and 2) a multiple classification model with the capability of identifying the type of object detected: bats (90% accuracy), birds (83% accuracy), insects (69% accuracy) and non-biological (99% accuracy).

Yarbrough, John↗

Evaluation of Treadmill Exercise in a Lower Body Negative Pressure Chamber as a Countermeasure for Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss: a Bed Rest Study with Identical Twins

Counteracting bone loss is required for future space exploration. We evaluated the ability of treadmill exercise in a LBNP chamber to counteract bone loss in a 30-day bed rest study. Eight pairs of identical twins were randomly assigned to sedentary control or exercise groups. Exercise within LBNP decreased the bone resorption caused by bed rest and may provide a countermeasure for spaceflight. INTRODUCTION: Bone loss is one of the greatest physiological challenges for extended-duration space missions. The ability of exercise to counteract weightlessness-induced bone loss has been studied extensively, but to date, it has proven ineffective. We evaluated the effectiveness of a combination of two countermeasures-treadmill exercise while inside a lower body negative pressure (LBNP) chamber-on bone loss during a 30-day bed rest study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight pairs of identical twins were randomized into sedentary (SED) or exercise/LBNP (EX/LBNP) groups. Blood and urine samples were collected before, several times during, and after the 30-day bed rest period. These samples were analyzed for markers of bone and calcium metabolism. Repeated measures ANOVA was used to determine statistical significance. Because identical twins were used, both time and group were treated as repeated variables. RESULTS: Markers of bone resorption were increased during bed rest in samples from sedentary subjects, including the collagen cross-links and serum and urinary calcium concentrations. For N-telopeptide and deoxypyridinoline, there were significant (p < 0.05) interactions between group (SED versus EX/LBNP) and phase of the study (sample collection point). Pyridinium cross-links were increased above pre-bed rest levels in both groups, but the EX/LBNP group had a smaller increase than the SED group. Markers of bone formation were unchanged by bed rest in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that this weight-bearing exercise combined with LBNP ameliorates some of the negative effects of simulated weightlessness on bone metabolism. This protocol may pave the way to counteracting bone loss during spaceflight and may provide valuable information about normal and abnormal bone physiology here on Earth.

Twin Study↗

Crowd-Sourced Radio Science at Marshall Space Flight Center

August 21, 2017 provided a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of the total solar eclipse on high frequency (HF) radio propagation and ionospheric variability. In Marshall Space Flight Center's partnership with the US Space and Rocket Center (USSRC) and Austin Peay State University (APSU), we engaged citizen scientists and students in an investigation of the effects of an eclipse on the mid-latitude ionosphere. Activities included fieldwork and station-based data collection of HF Amateur Radio frequency bands and VLF radio waves before, during, and after the eclipse to build a continuous record of changing propagation conditions as the moon's shadow marched across the United States. Post-eclipse radio propagation analysis provided insights into ionospheric variability due to the eclipse.

amateur radio↗

Effects of the 2017 Solar Eclipse on HF Radio Propagation and the D-Region Ionosphere: Citizen Science Investigation

August 21, 2017 provided a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of the total solar eclipse on high frequency (HF) radio propagation and ionospheric variability. In Marshall Space Flight Center's partnership with the US Space and Rocket Center (USSRC) and Austin Peay State University (APSU), we engaged students and citizen scientists in an investigation of the eclipse effects on the mid-latitude ionosphere. Activities included implementing and configuring software, monitoring the HF Amateur Radio frequency bands and collecting radio transmission data on days before, the day of, and days after the eclipse to build a continuous record of changing propagation conditions as the moon's shadow marched across the United States. Post-eclipse radio propagation analysis provided insights into ionospheric variability due to the eclipse. We report on results, interpretation, and conclusions of these investigations.

Radio Propagatio↗

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Zaman, Kais↗