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At least 739 records · Page 41

A-Train Based Observational Metrics for Model Evaluation in Extratropical Cyclones

Extratropical cyclones contribute most of the precipitation in the midlatitudes, i.e. up to 70 during winter in the northern hemisphere, and can generate flooding, extreme winds, blizzards and have large socio-economic impacts. As such, it is important that general circulation models (GCMs) accurately represent these systems so their evolution in a warming climate can be understood. However, there are still uncertainties on whether warming will increase their frequency of occurrence, their intensity and how much rain or snow they bring. Part of the issue is that models have trouble representing their strength, but models also have biases in the amount of clouds and precipitation they produce. This is caused by potential issues in various aspects of the models: convection, boundary layer, and cloud scheme to only mention a few. In order to pinpoint which aspects of the models need improvement for a better representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and cloudiness, we will present A-train based observational metrics: cyclone-centered, warm and cold frontal composites of cloud amount and type, precipitation rate and frequency of occurrence. Using the same method to extract similar fields from the model, we will present an evaluation of the GISS-ModelE2 and the IPSL-LMDZ-5B models, based on their AR5 and more recent versions. The AR5 version of the GISS model underestimates cloud cover in extratropical cyclones while the IPSL AR5 version overestimates it. In addition, we will show how the observed CloudSat-CALIPSO cloud vertical distribution across cold fronts changes with moisture amount and cyclone strength, and test if the two models successfully represent these changes. We will also show how CloudSat-CALIPSO derived cloud type (i.e. convective vs. stratiform) evolves across warm fronts as cyclones age, and again how this is represented in the models. Our third process-based analysis concerns cumulus clouds in the post-cold frontal region and how their amount relates to the stability of the boundary layer. This test uses Aqua cloud and vertical atmospheric profiles and when applied to the model output can help assess the accuracy of the convection, boundary layer and cloud scheme.

Convection clouds↗

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Stability↗

The NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission: Objectives, Approach, and Status

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) mission that is currently under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). OCO will make global, space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize regional-scale sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas. The observatory consists of a dedicated spacecraft bus that carries a single instrument. The bus employs single-string version of Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) LEOStar-2 architecture. This 3-axis stabilized bus includes a propulsion system for orbit insertion and maintenance, provides power, points the instrument, receives and processes commands from the ground, and records, stores, and downlinks science and engineering data. The OCO instrument incorporates 3 oboresighted, high resolution grating spectrometers that will make coincident measurements of reflected sunlight in near-infrared CO2 and molecular oxygen (O2) bands. The instrument was designed and manufactured by Hamilton Sundstrand (Pomona, CA), and then integrated, flight qualified, and calibrated by JPL. It is scheduled for delivery to OSC (Dulles, VA) for integration with the spacecraft bus in the spring of 2008. OCO will be launched from the Vandenberg Air Force Base on a dedicated OSC Taurus XL launch vehicle in December 2008. It will fly in formation with the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, a group of satellites that files in a 98.8 minute, 705 km altitude, sun-synchronous orbit. This orbit provides coverage of the sunlit hemisphere with a 16-day ground track repeat cycle. OCO will fly approx.4 minutes ahead of the EOS Aqua platform, with an ascending nodal crossing time of approx.1:26 PM. The OCO science data will be transmitted to the NASA Ground Network Stations in Alaska and Virginia, and then transferred to the OCO Ground Data System at JPL. There, the CO2 and O2 spectra will be analyzed by the OCO Science Team to provide spatially resolved estimates of the column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction, XCO2. These measurements are expected to improve our understanding of the nature and processes that regulate atmospheric CO2 enabling more reliable forecasts of CO2 buildup and its impact on climate change.

global measurements↗

Molecular understanding of new-particle formation from α-pinene between -50 and +25 °C

Abstract. Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) contribute substantially to the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosol particles, which affect air quality, human health and Earth's climate. HOMs are formed by rapid, gas-phase autoxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as α-pinene, the most abundant monoterpene in the atmosphere. Due to their abundance and low volatility, HOMs can play an important role in new-particle formation (NPF) and the early growth of atmospheric aerosols, even without any further assistance of other low-volatility compounds such as sulfuric acid. Both the autoxidation reaction forming HOMs and their NPF rates are expected to be strongly dependent on temperature. However, experimental data on both effects are limited. Dedicated experiments were performed at the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber at CERN to address this question. In this study, we show that a decrease in temperature (from +25 to -50°C) results in a reduced HOM yield and reduced oxidation state of the products, whereas the NPF rates (J1.7 nm) increase substantially. Measurements with two different chemical ionization mass spectrometers (using nitrate and protonated water as reagent ion, respectively) provide the molecular composition of the gaseous oxidation products, and a two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D VBS) model provides their volatility distribution. The HOM yield decreases with temperature from 6.2 % at 25°C to 0.7 % at -50°C. However, there is a strong reduction of the saturation vapor pressure of each oxidation state as the temperature is reduced. Overall, the reduction in volatility with temperature leads to an increase in the nucleation rates by up to 3 orders of magnitude at -50°C compared with 25°C. In addition, the enhancement of the nucleation rates by ions decreases with decreasing temperature, since the neutral molecular clusters have increased stability against evaporation. The resulting data quantify how the interplay between the temperature-dependent oxidation pathways and the associated vapor pressures affect biogenic NPF at the molecular level. Our measurements, therefore, improve our understanding of pure biogenic NPF for a wide range of tropospheric temperatures and precursor concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗

Getting to the root of the problem: Soil carbon and microbial responses to root inputs within a buried paleosol along an eroding hillslope in southwestern Nebraska, USA

Large quantities of soil carbon (C) can persist within paleosols for millennia due to burial and subsequent isolation from plant-derived inputs, atmospheric conditions, and microbial activity at the modern surface. Erosion exposes buried soils to modern root-derived C influx via root exudation and root turnover, thus stimulating microbial activity leading to SOC decomposition and accumulation through organo-mineral stabilization of modern C. With this study we aim to quantify how modern root-derived C inputs impact paleosol C decomposition and stabilization across varying degrees of isolation from modern surface conditions in southwestern Nebraska, USA, where hillslope erosion is bringing a buried Late-Pleistocene-early Holocene paleosol (the “Brady Soil”) closer to the modern surface. We collected Brady Soil samples from 0.2m, 0.4m, and 1.2m below the modern surface and conducted two lab-based incubations. Soils were amended with either (1) a lab-synthesized mixture of low molecular weight compounds (12 atom% 13 C), or (2) 13 C enriched root residues (92 atom% 13 C), in 30-day and 240-day incubation experiments, respectively. Here we determined microbial responses to synthetic root exudates and residues by partitioning the 13 C label from Brady Soil C, including measurements of total, root, and primed C respiration, microbial biomass C (MBC), microbial C use efficiency (CUE). To assess the capacity of isolated paleosols to accrue modern plant C, we used Nano-scale Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry imaging. We found that: (1) adding root-derived C inputs primed Brady Soil C across all depths, and was mediated by depth and composition of root additions; (2) root-derived C inputs stimulated microbial biomass C (MBC) growth similarly across depths, but the magnitude of CUE and MBC varied by chemistry of root-derived additions; (3) new particulate organic matter was incorporated into mineral-associated pools over time; (4) material from the added root residues was found in association with bacterial cells and fungal hyphae as well as with soil aggregate and mineral surfaces. Our study shows that paleosols defy expectations of C content and reactivity with depth, and changes in land cover and climate will expose buried paleosols to modern surface conditions, increasing respired C. This work highlights the importance of evaluating the role resurfacing buried soils through landscape change plays in C cycle feedbacks to the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Grindelia Reveals Opportunities for Generating Low Oxygen Content Bio-Oils from Drought Tolerant Biomass

Grindelia squarrosa (curlycup gumweed) biomass possesses unique biochemistry, cell wall composition, and leaf architecture tailored for prolific growth in arid and semiarid climates. Most notably, this plant has developed high levels of extractable resins that have high effective H/C eff ratios ((mol H - 2 x mol O)/mol C), which is hypothesized to lead to low coke formation during catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) over the ZSM-5 catalyst. In microscale experiments with high ZSM-5 loadings (biomass-to-catalyst mass ratio (B/C) ~ 0.1), in situ CFP generated high yields of aromatic hydrocarbons (30% carbon yield) while ex situ CFP favored aliphatic hydrocarbons (25% carbon yield). The difference between the two configurations was attributed to the constant catalyst temperature during ex situ CFP. Deactivation leading to partially deoxygenated vapor products occurred rapidly until B/C ≤ 0.5 by the adsorption of organic species blocking access to acid sites inside the micropores of the catalyst. This was followed by more gradual deactivation leading to primary vapor breakthrough, which we attribute to coke formation on acid sites on the external surface of ZSM-5 crystallites. Noncatalytic fast pyrolysis of Grindelia in a bench scale reactor produced oils with oxygen content (18 wt % on dry basis) and carbon yield (33%) comparable to those of CFP of woody biomass. The CFP of Grindelia further reduced the oxygen content to 7 wt % for in situ CFP and 4 wt % for ex situ CFP at B/C of 2-3. The good deoxygenation was attributed to a combination of a high H/C eff ratio and overall better quality of the pyrolysis vapors that were passed over the ZSM-5 catalyst. The high inorganic content of the Grindelia likely catalyzed pyrolysis to remove oxygenated coke precursors. This integrated CFP study demonstrated that Grindelia could be an important feedstock for generating stabilized noncatalytic and CFP oils for downstream processing into fuels and/or extraction of high-value chemicals. The preprocessing of this feedstock will be required to remove inorganics, which cause an irreversible deactivation of ZSM-5.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Pascal Discovery Mission: A Mars Climate Network Mission

The climate of Mars is a major focus of Mars exploration. With the loss of MCO, however, it remains uncertain how it will be achieved. We argue that a truly dedicated climate mission to Mars should have both orbital and landed components, and that these should operate simultaneously for at least I Mars year if not longer. Pascal is Discovery mission that emphasizes the landed component. Its principal goal is to establish a network of 24 small weather stations on the surface of Mars that will operate for 2 Mars years, with an extended mission option for an additional 8 Mars years bringing the total mission lifetime up to 10 Mars years. The stations will collect hourly measurements of pressure, temperature, and optical depth. After delivering the probes to Mars, Pascal's carrier spacecraft will go into an elliptical orbit which will serve as a relay for the landers, and a platform for synoptic imaging. These simultaneous measurements from the surface and from orbit will allow us to characterize the planet's general circulation and its interaction with the dust, water, and CO2 cycles. During entry, descent, and landing, each of Pascal's 24 probes will also measure the temperature structure of the atmosphere and acquire images of the surface. These data will allow us to determine the global structure of the atmosphere between 15 and 130 km, and characterize the local terrain to help interpret the landed data. The descent images are part of Pascal's outreach program, as the probe camera system will be developed by faculty-supervised student project. The intent is to generate enthusiasm for the Pascal mission by directly involving students. Pascal will be launched on a Delta 11-7925 in August of 2005. A type I trajectory will deliver Pascal to Mars in January of 2006. On approach, the three-axis stabilized carrier spacecraft will spring deploy the Pascal probes in 4 separate salvo's of 6 each. Global coverage is achieved with small time-of-arrival adjustments in between each salvo. Pascal's probes utilize an aeroshell, parachute, and crushable material for entry, descent and landing. On the surface, their long life and global coverage is enabled by a Micro Thermal Power Source with demonstrated heritage. After all probes are released, the carrier spacecraft will execute a small bum for insertion into an elliptical orbit. The long lifetime of the Pascal network was chosen in part to maximize the chances that orbital sounding, like that planned with MCO, would occur at some point during the mission. If Pascal is selected for launch in -05, this could occur if MCO-like science is reflown in the '05 opportunity or, if it is reflown in '03, the mission is extended to overlap with Pascal. The combination of temperature sounding from orbit, and surface pressure mapping from the surface will allow a direct determination of the full 3-D wind field for the first time.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

The Pascal Discovery Mission: A Mars Climate Network Mission

The climate of Mars is a major focus of Mars exploration. With the loss of MCO, however, it remains uncertain how it will be achieved. We argue that a truly dedicated climate mission to Mars should have both orbital and landed components, and that these should operate simultaneously for at least 1 Mars year if not longer. Pascal is a Discovery mission that emphasizes the landed component. Its principal goal is to establish a network of 24 small weather stations on the surface of Mars that will operate for 2 Mars years, with an extended mission option for an additional 8 Mars years bringing the total mission lifetime up to 10 Mars years. The stations will collect hourly measurements of pressure, temperature, and optical depth. After delivering the probes to Mars, Pascal's carrier spacecraft will go into an elliptical orbit which will serve as a relay for the landers, and a platform for synoptic imaging. These simultaneous measurements from the surface and from orbit will allow us to characterize the planet's general circulation and its interaction with the dust, water, and CO2 cycles. During entry, descent, and landing, each of Pascal's 24 probes will also measure the temperature structure of the atmosphere and acquire images of the surface. These data will allow us to determine the global structure of the atmosphere between 15 and 130 km, and characterize the local terrain to help interpret the landed data. The descent images are part of Pascal's outreach program, as the probe camera system will be developed by faculty-supervised student project. The intent is to generate enthusiasm for the Pascal mission by directly involving students. Pascal will be launched on a Delta II-7925 in August of 2005. A type I trajectory will deliver Pascal to Mars in January of 2006. On approach, the three-axis stabilized carrier spacecraft will spring deploy the Pascal probes in 4 separate salvo's of 6 each. Global coverage is achieved with small time-of-arrival adjustments in between each salvo. Pascal's probes utilize an aeroshell, parachute, and crushable material for entry, descent and landing. On the surface, their long life and global coverage is enabled by a Micro Thermal Power Source with demonstrated heritage. After all probes are released, the carrier spacecraft will execute a small burn for insertion into an elliptical orbit. The long lifetime of the Pascal network was chosen in part to maximize the chances that orbital sounding, like that planned with MCO, would occur at some point during the mission. If Pascal is selected for launch in '05, this could occur if MCO-like science is reflown in the '05 opportunity or, if it is reflown in '03, the mission is extended to overlap with Pascal. The combination of temperature sounding from orbit, and surface pressure mapping from the surface will allow a direct determination of the full 3-D wind field for the first time.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A numerical investigation of coal particle modeling for the inlet section of a pressurized oxy-combustion burner

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts to develop low-carbon technologies, and pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry. Designing an effective burner for such technologies is vital for the development of these and other coal combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of coal particles at the fuel inlet of the pressurized oxy-combustor burner is close to or even higher than the maximum limit for commercial CFD codes (e.g., ANSYS FLUENT). At these high particle volume fractions, the interactions among particles, fluid flow and wall need to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the influence of various parameters, like method of particle release, release location, and particle size, in a pilot-scale POC combustor, developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In the POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure in an O2-CO2 environment. Specifically, a 15-bar, 100 kWth, POC combustor is modeled employing Ansys FLUENT commercial sodtware using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, velocity profiles in the near-wall region exhibit some anomalies. In order to investigate the influence of particle loading in the near-wall region, particle release location was investigated. The numerical simulations incorporate the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. A sensitivity investigation of particle release location found that by tuning the release location, the velocity profile can be consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. More importantly, the particle releasing location also affects flame stability. Particle size was also found to have a significant impact on particle trajectory, flame stability and temperature. Finally, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) were performed and compared with the results from two-dimensional RANS.

Li, Lei↗

The Influence of Sea ice on Arctic Cloud Properties: What Can We Learn by Applying a In Situ Observational Strategy to Satellite Data?

Sea ice is declining because of anthropogenic climate change. This change alters many aspects of the Arctic climate system, including the way that the surface and atmosphere interact. Atmosphere-surface coupling processes represent an important cloud feedback mechanism that can alter the Arctic surface energy budget. For the Arctic, it has been hypothesized that a reduction in sea ice cover could lead to an increase in clouds. If this process were to occur as originally hypothesized, sea ice loss in all seasons would lead to an increase in clouds. Recent observational studies find a cloud response to sea ice loss in non-summer months and no cloud response in summer months. However, previous studies rely on inter-annual variability and reanalysis to control for the influence of meteorology, reducing the confidence in the resulting conclusions. We adopt a phenomenological, event-based approach that does not need to use meteorological reanalysis. The approach analyzes cloud properties derived from CALIPSO-CloudSat over sea ice and adjacent ice-free footprints by compositing individual satellite ground tracks that cross the Arctic sea ice edge. The underlying assumption, which we verify, is that footprints that are close to each other in space and time experience similar large-scale meteorological conditions. Our results show larger cloud fraction and more cloud liquid water over ice-free than over sea ice footprints and provide additional evidence for a seasonal dependence of cloud-sea ice coupling that is in line with previous work. We find a different result where the maximum cloud property differences between sea ice and ice-free ocean occurs in spring, not fall as earlier studies suggest. We argue that these cloud differences between sea ice and ice-free ocean are primarily caused by the influence of the surface type on the thermodynamic stability of the lower troposphere and not principally from an increase in surface evaporation. In addition, we explore the sensitivity of these results to marginal ice zone width, season, Atlantic vs. Pacific sector, and the cloud property dependence on the distance from the sea ice edge. Overall, our results provide further evidence that cloud-sea ice coupling processes are not offsetting the observed surface energy budget perturbation due to sea ice loss in summer; thus, the cloud response to declining sea ice appears to contribute to amplified Arctic warming.

Patrick C Taylor↗

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗

Impact of Storage Conditions on the Quality and Viability of Switchgrass as a Bioenergy Crop

With growing energy demands and climate concerns, advancements in bioenergy have become imperative. Biofuels promote energy independence, reduce fossil fuel reliance, and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatumis) is an ideal bioenergy crop due to its ability to thrive on marginal lands unsuitable for food crops and its drought tolerance, rendering it a low-maintenance, high-yield option. In the bioenergy industry, energy crops are typically stored to facilitate supply chain management and ensure a continuous supply despite seasonal availability. However, the effective utilization of bioenergy crops is typically contingent upon addressing the challenges associated with biomass storage. These challenges include high moisture content that promotes biological degradation of the biomass leading to increased risk of pathogenic microbes, and chemical degradation that increases the ratio of inconvertible, inorganic materials. These issues lead to a reduction of feedstock value, diminishing the biomass-to-biofuel conversion efficacy, making switchgrass and other bioenergy crops less effective as fuel sources. This project aims to improve the storage of purpose-grown energy crops. Aerobic storage trials were conducted under varying moisture contents to stimulate real-world environmental exposure. Switchgrass samples were rewetted to 30% or 35% and stored in a bioreactor for approximately one month, or until cellular respiration ceased. Degradation indicators, such as dry matter loss, temperature changes, and cellular respiration, were measured throughout this process. Samples for compositional analysis, 16S, and ITS were taken at three different time points: before, during, and after storage, to monitor changes in biomass, microbial communities, and metabolites over time. Preliminary data indicate that dry matter loss is proportional to cellular respiration, with higher moisture content (35%) leading to higher temperatures and elevated dry matter loss. Compositional analysis and microbial community analysis are in progress. This research will provide a comprehensive understanding of storage, helping to identify stability factors in energy crops and improve best management practices for biomass producers.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Demonstrating Advanced Nuclear Energy Solutions for Net Zero

Background/Objectives. The aggressive goals being set by nation states, communities, and private industry for decarbonization of grid electricity, industrial heat sources, and transportation around the world are imperative to mitigating the devastating effects that we are seeing from climate change. Although many of these goals focus on accomplishments by 2035 or 2050, the decisions that we make today won’t just impact the landscape of energy systems for the next 20 or 30 years—they will shape the world’s environment for centuries to come. That means that we can’t just focus on technologies that will get us to 2050, but technologies that will withstand our energy demands over that long-ranging future. Success will require us to utilize all of the clean energy resources that we have available to meet demands for electricity, heat, and steam, and we will need energy carriers such as hydrogen that do not emit additional greenhouse gases at the point of use. Nuclear energy, ranging from technologies in service today to advanced, higher temperature and modular systems that will be in service this decade, will provide a robust complement to renewable energy resources that operate variably. Researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy laboratory complex are working to advance multiple aspects of these clean energy solutions, with many focusing on integrated energy system solutions that leverage all available clean energy assets to meet wide-ranging energy demands. Approach/Activities. Nuclear energy is a proven, zero-emission option during operation that can provide consistent, dispatchable power to meet electricity demands while also providing high-quality heat that can meet energy demands beyond the electricity sector. Energy system design should seek to maximize these assets. As a dispatchable energy source with a small land utilization footprint, nuclear energy can be collocated with renewable resources, and the smaller systems that will be deployed this decade (ranging from a few megawatts to hundreds of megawatts) can be installed right where that energy is needed. Integrated nuclear and renewable systems will enhance power grid reliability and resilience, and they will help stabilize the grid through their increasingly flexible operation. Licensing, installation, and broad adoption of these advanced nuclear energy systems are expected to progress significantly in the 2020s, but this may be longer than desired by some stakeholders wishing to implement impactful clean energy decisions today. However, one must recall that nuclear energy systems will operate for 80 or more years, as is being demonstrated by current fleet nuclear systems. The nuclear community is extremely thorough in reviewing these systems with regard to safety and security; these efforts ensure that the deployed systems will continue to provide reliable, resilient energy over that operational lifetime. That investment of time up front will ensure that we can support energy demands over the centuries to come. While advanced nuclear technologies move through this process, communities and private industry may choose to install renewable generation systems that can later be coupled to the complementary nuclear systems as they become available—thus moving closer to the net zero goals in the near term. Choosing technologies and deployment configurations that allow small modular nuclear powerhouses to be added to these “energy parks” as they become available will ensure that advanced technologies can be readily adopted to support growing demands for clean energy. Results/Lessons Learned. The primary focus of integrated energy systems (IES) research is to assess the technical and economic potential of novel multi-input, multioutput solutions that are expected to enhance energy system flexibility, reliability, and resilience as we pursue a clean energy transition. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. In early FY23 Idaho National Laboratory (INL) will commission thermal energy generation systems that emulate nuclear fission energy input using electric heating and will allow for integrated system testing with thermal energy storage, hydrogen production via high temperature electrolysis (HTE), and power systems hardware to demonstrate operation of a clean energy park within a microgrid or larger grid infrastructure, supporting up to 450 kW of heat input via electric heating and demonstrating operation of HTE systems at the multi-hundred kW scale. This presentation will highlight the wide array of RD&D being conducted at INL and partner laboratories to develop and deploy nuclear and renewable-based IES that will be key to achieving our net zero goals, including both computational and experimental demonstrations. By working with key collaborators in industry, analytical st

08 HYDROGEN↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. Additionally, the ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is currently under development and is on schedule to launch the 8th satellite in the Landsat series in December of 2012. LDCM is a joint project between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). NASA is responsible for developing and launching the flight hardware and on-orbit commissioning and USGS is responsible for developing the ground system and operating the system onorbit after commissioning. Key components of the flight hardware are the Operational Land Imager (OLI), nearing completion by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp in Boulder, CO, the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), being built by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and the spacecraft, undergoing integration at Orbital Sciences Corp in Gilbert, Arizona. The launch vehicle will be an Atlas-5 with launch services provided by NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Key ground systems elements are the Mission Operations Element, being developed by the Hammers Corporation, and the Collection Activity Planning Element, Ground Network Element, and Data Processing and Archive System, being developed internally by the USGS Earth Resources Observations and Science (EROS) Center. The primary measurement goal of LDCM is to continue the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution imagery providing continuity with the existing Landsat record. The science goal for this imagery is to monitor land use and land cover, particularly as it relates to global climate change. Together the OLI and TIRS instruments on LDCM replace the ETM+ instrument on Landsat-7 with significant enhancements. The OLI is a pushbroom design instrument where the scanning mechanism of the ETM+ is effectively replaced by a long line of detectors. The OLI has 9 spectral bands with similar spatial resolution to ETM+: 7 of them similar to the reflective spectral bands on ETM+ and two new bands. The two new bands cover (1) the shorter wavelength blue part of the spectrum to help with coastal studies and aerosol analyses/atmospheric correction and (2) an atmospheric water absorption band, where the Earth surface is generally not visible, but Cirrus clouds are, to aid in cloud detection and screening. The radiometry of OLI benefits from improved SNR, dynamic range and quantization. OLI is undergoing system testing with a delivery scheduled for Spring 2011. The TIRS is also a pushbroom design and used QWIPS detectors that require cooling to 43K using a cryocooler. It.has two spectral bands, effectively splitting the ETM+ band 6 in half, that can be used as a split window to aid in atmospheric correction. It has nominally 100 m spatial resolution as opposed to the 60 m of Landsat-7 ETM+: TIRS has commenced integration and test, with a delivery to the spacecraft vendor scheduled for Winter 2011-2012. The Orbital spacecraft currently being integrated for LDCM will have improved capabilities for pointing over previous missions. These capabilities will allow the OLI and TIRS instruments to point off-nadir the equivalent of one WRS-2 path to increase the chances of coverage for high priority targets, particularly in the event of natural disasters. Also, the pointing capability will allow the calibration of the OLI using the sun (roughly weekly), the moon (monthly), stars (during commissioning) and the Earth (at 90 deg from normal orientation, a.k.a., side slither) quarterly. The solar calibration will be used for OLI absolute and relative calibration, the moon for trending the stability of the OLI response, the stars will be used for Line of Sight determination and the side slither will be an alternate OLI and relative gain determination methodology. The spacecraft is scheduled to begin integration with the OLI instrument in Summer 2011. The LDCM data processing and archive system (DPAS), located at USGS EROS, generates the products for distribution to users. Like Landsat-7 this includes an image assessment system for characrizing instrument performance and updating calibration parameters. Products will be generated that include the spectral bands from both instruments, terrain corrected and registered to the geoid. Also, like Landsat-7, data products will be distributed at no charge to the user. The current status and plans of the space and ground segments of the LDCM project will be presented along with performance predictions as available. More detailed information on the two instruments is intended to be presented in separate papers.

Markham, Brian↗