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At least 739 records · Page 41

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Borgs are giant genetic elements with potential to expand metabolic capacity

Anaerobic methane oxidation exerts a key control on greenhouse gas emissions1, yet factors that modulate the activity of microorganisms performing this function remain poorly understood. Here we discovered extraordinarily large, diverse DNA sequences that primarily encode hypothetical proteins through studying groundwater, sediments and wetland soil where methane production and oxidation occur. Four curated, complete genomes are linear, up to approximately 1 Mb in length and share genome organization, including replichore structure, long inverted terminal repeats and genome-wide unique perfect tandem direct repeats that are intergenic or generate amino acid repeats. We infer that these are highly divergent archaeal extrachromosomal elements with a distinct evolutionary origin. Gene sequence similarity, phylogeny and local divergence of sequence composition indicate that many of their genes were assimilated from methane-oxidizing Methanoperedens archaea. We refer to these elements as ‘Borgs’. We identified at least 19 different Borg types coexisting with Methanoperedens spp. in four distinct ecosystems. Borgs provide methane-oxidizing Methanoperedens archaea access to genes encoding proteins involved in redox reactions and energy conservation (for example, clusters of multihaem cytochromes and methyl coenzyme M reductase). These data suggest that Borgs might have previously unrecognized roles in the metabolism of this group of archaea, which are known to modulate greenhouse gas emissions, but further studies are now needed to establish their functional relevance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Health co-benefits of achieving sustainable net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in California

The achievement of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2100 is required to limit global temperature rise below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Earlier accomplishments of net-zero GHG emissions in developed regions support this global target. In this study, we have developed a road map for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions sustainably in 2050 by using detailed modelling of energy system transformation, cross-sectoral connectivity and technology penetration, as well as quantify the associated health co-benefits from reduced co-emitted air pollutants. We find that approximately 14,000 premature deaths can be avoided in California in 2050 and that these health co-benefits are disproportionately higher in disadvantaged communities (that is, 35% of avoided deaths will come from 25% of the state’s population). The annualized monetary benefits (US$215 billion) exceed the GHG abatement cost (US$106 billion) by US$109 billion. This road map requires the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration technology to offset some GHG emissions. However, this technology comes at a price as it would emit a considerable amount of air pollutants and reduce health co-benefits by US$4 billion. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that ambitious GHG reduction efforts can provide substantial health co-benefits, especially for residents of disadvantaged communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Current inequality and future potential of US urban tree cover for reducing heat-related health impacts

Excessive heat is a major and growing risk for urban residents. Here, we estimate the inequality in summertime heat-related mortality, morbidity, and electricity consumption across 5723 US municipalities and other places, housing 180 million people during the 2020 census. On average, trees in majority non-Hispanic white neighborhoods cool the air by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C more than in POC neighborhoods, leading annually to trees in white neighborhoods helping prevent 190 ± 139 more deaths, 30,131 ± 10,406 more doctors’ visits, and 1.4 ± 0.5 terawatt-hours (TWhr) more electricity consumption than in POC neighborhoods. We estimate that an ambitious reforestation program would require 1.2 billion trees and reduce population-weighted average summer temperatures by an additional 0.38 ± 0.01 °C. This temperature reduction would reduce annual heat-related mortality by an additional 464 ± 89 people, annual heat-related morbidity by 80,785 ± 6110 cases, and annual electricity consumption by 4.3 ± 0.2 TWhr, while increasing annual carbon sequestration in trees by 23.7 ± 1.2 MtCO 2 e yr -1 and decreasing annual electricity-related GHG emissions by 2.1 ± 0.2 MtCO 2 e yr -1 . The total economic value of these benefits, including the value of carbon sequestration and avoided emissions, would be USD 9.6 ± 0.5 billion, although in many neighborhoods the cost of planting and maintaining trees to achieve this increased tree cover would exceed these benefits. The exception is areas that currently have less tree cover, often the majority POC, which tend to have a relatively high return on investment from tree planting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO x emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Habitat‐adapted microbial communities mediate Sphagnum peatmoss resilience to warming

Summary Sphagnum peatmosses are fundamental members of peatland ecosystems, where they contribute to the uptake and long‐term storage of atmospheric carbon. Warming threatens Sphagnum mosses and is known to alter the composition of their associated microbiome. Here, we use a microbiome transfer approach to test if microbiome thermal origin influences host plant thermotolerance. We leveraged an experimental whole‐ecosystem warming study to collect field‐grown Sphagnum , mechanically separate the associated microbiome and then transfer onto germ‐free laboratory Sphagnum for temperature experiments. Host and microbiome dynamics were assessed with growth analysis, Chl a fluorescence imaging, metagenomics, metatranscriptomics and 16S rDNA profiling. Microbiomes originating from warming field conditions imparted enhanced thermotolerance and growth recovery at elevated temperatures. Metagenome and metatranscriptome analyses revealed that warming altered microbial community structure in a manner that induced the plant heat shock response, especially the HSP70 family and jasmonic acid production. The heat shock response was induced even without warming treatment in the laboratory, suggesting that the warm‐microbiome isolated from the field provided the host plant with thermal preconditioning. Our results demonstrate that microbes, which respond rapidly to temperature alterations, can play key roles in host plant growth response to rapidly changing environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map

We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Feedbacks Regulating the Salinization of Coastal Landscapes

The impact of saltwater intrusion on coastal forests and farmland is typically understood as sea-level-driven inundation of a static terrestrial landscape, where ecosystems neither adapt to nor influence saltwater intrusion. Yet recent observations of tree mortality and reduced crop yields have inspired new process-based research into the hydrologic, geomorphic, biotic, and anthropogenic mechanisms involved. We review several negative feedbacks that help stabilize ecosystems in the early stages of salinity stress (e.g., reduced water use and resource competition in surviving trees, soil accretion, and farmland management). However, processes that reduce salinity are often accompanied by increases in hypoxia and other changes that may amplify saltwater intrusion and vegetation shifts after a threshold is exceeded (e.g., subsidence following tree root mortality). This conceptual framework helps explain observed rates of vegetation change that are less than predicted for a static landscape while recognizing the inevitability of large-scale change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Raw Data published in PeerJ, 2021 for Crested Butte decomposition field study 2017-2019.

This data package contains text files that describe geochemical measurements collected from 2017-2019 during isolated conifer needle decomposition field studies in Crested Butte, Colorado. The geochemical measurements were collected across three elevations (2,800–3,500 m) ranging from montane to subalpine ecoregions. The data sets within include total carbon and nitrogen content and fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) results for the initial needles collected in 2016 and after decomposition in 2019. Data collection results from August 2020 are also included from when the experimental plots were removed to understand final concentrations of soil extractable carbon and nitrogen content as well as mass balances from litter bag deployments. Soil porewater results are also provided from 2017-2019 for DOC, TN, UV254, and specific UV absorbance (SUVA) analyses at 15 cm soil depth. Gas flux raw data provides CO2, CH4, N2O, and NH3 measurements above needle decomposition over the three study years. Finally, soil samples for microbial DNA extractions were collected from the upper soil depth. This raw data is available in the NCBI SRA database under SRA accession numbers PRJNA605259 and PRJNA715914. These data sets were generated to investigate the isolated decomposition of spruce and lodgepole conifer needles. The goal of this work was to determine the roles of elevation, soil type, seasonal changes in soil moisture, and snowmelt timing on litter decomposition processes. Results from this work are detailed in the reference paper "Effect of elevation, season and accelerated snowmelt on biogeochemical processes during isolated conifer needle litter decomposition. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11926."

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM shortwave spectrometers to study the clear-cloud transition zone and mixing processes

The proposed research is a collaborative effort between NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. While the NASA team focused on analyzing ground-based hyper-spectral radiance observations to understand cloud edge properties and their connection to mixing processes, the Hebrew University team tackled the problem through cloud modeling activities. By approximating the shortwave spectra in the cloud-clear transition zone as a linear combination of purely clear and purely cloudy spectra we can characterize the variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud droplet effective radius in the transition zone. When applying this method to the measurements of a ground-based shortwave spectroradiometer at the ARM’s SGP site, representing continental conditions, and MAGIC field campaign between Log Angeles, California and Honolulu, Hawaii, representing maritime scenarios, we found that cloud optical depth consistently decreases in both cases, but droplet size decreases much more substantially for the continental regime, suggesting different mixing processes for the continental and maritime conditions. The investigation and measurements of radiation clouds were coupled with a unique cloud modeling. A novel spectral bin microphysics was developed and implemented to the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). In order to resolve cloud transition zones with high spatial gradients of microphysical variables a unique high resolution (10 m) was used in simulations. The model calculates droplet size distributions in each grid point. The model output was transferred to the NASA/GSFC team for utilization in radiative calculations and testing of both radiative algorithm and model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Neural Networks as Random Dynamical Systems

In this report we present our findings and outcomes of the NNRDS (analysis of Neural Networks as Random Dynamical Systems) project. The work is largely motivated by the analogy of a large class of neural networks (NNs) with a discretized ordinary differential equation (ODE) schemes. Namely, residual NNs, or ResNets, can be viewed as a discretization of neural ODEs (NODEs) where the NN depth plays the role of the time evolution. We employ several legacy tools from ODE theory, such as stiffness, nonlocality, autonomicity, to enable regularization of ResNets thus improving their generalization capabilities. Furthermore, armed with NN analysis tools borrowed from the ODE theory, we are able to efficiently augment NN predictions with uncertainty overcoming wellknown dimensionality challenges and adding a degree of trust towards NN predictions. Finally, we have developed a Python library QUiNN (Quantification of Uncertainties in Neural Networks) that incorporates improved-architecture ResNets, besides classical feed-forward NNs, and contains wrappers to PyTorch NN models enabling several major classes of uncertainty quantification methods for NNs. Besides synthetic problems, we demonstrate the methods on datasets from climate modeling and materials science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Applying AI to Help Predict Solar Power Output Over Time

Poster with results from ongoing research on re-training pv-vision to segment images of solar modules. Presenting at the Sandia Analytics for Climate, Energy, and Earth Sciences (ACEES) 2025 Symposium.

Sanghi, Ojas NMN [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗