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NASA NTRS2016

Simultaneous Water Vapor and Dry Air Optical Path Length Measurements and Compensation with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer uses a near-infrared camera to measure the optical path length variations between the two AO-corrected apertures and provide high-angular resolution observations for all its science channels (1.5-13 microns). There is however a wavelength dependent component to the atmospheric turbulence, which can introduce optical path length errors when observing at a wavelength different from that of the fringe sensing camera. Water vapor in particular is highly dispersive and its effect must be taken into account for high-precision infrared interferometric observations as described previously for VLTI/MIDI or the Keck Interferometer Nuller. In this paper, we describe the new sensing approach that has been developed at the LBT to measure and monitor the optical path length fluctuations due to dry air and water vapor separately. After reviewing the current performance of the system for dry air seeing compensation, we present simultaneous H-, K-, and N-band observations that illustrate the feasibility of our feed forward approach to stabilize the path length fluctuations seen by the LBTI nuller uses a near-infrared camera to measure the optical path length variations between the two AO-corrected apertures and provide high-angular resolution observations for all its science channels (1.5-13 microns). There is however a wavelength dependent component to the atmospheric turbulence, which can introduce optical path length errors when observing at a wavelength different from that of the fringe sensing camera. Water vapor in particular is highly dispersive and its effect must be taken into account for high-precision infrared interferometric observations as described previously for VLTI MIDI or the Keck Interferometer Nuller. In this paper, we describe the new sensing approach that has been developed at the LBT to measure and monitor the optical path length fluctuations due to dry air and water vapor separately. After reviewing the current performance of the system for dry air seeing compensation, we present simultaneous H-, K-, and N-band observations that illustrate the feasibility of our feed forward approach to stabilize the path length fluctuations seen by the LBTI nuller.

which can introduce optical path length errors whe↗

NASA NTRS2020

Conditions of Loss Cone Filling by Scattering on the Curved Field Lines for 30 keV Protons During Geomagnetic Storm as Inferred From Numerical Trajectory Tracing

The rate of pitch angle scattering on the curved magnetic field lines is well parameterized by the ratio of the minimum field line curvature radius to the maximum effective particle gyroradius (K = RC/rg). The critical value of this ratio (Kcr) corresponding to the loss cone filling is of special interest since it corresponds to the low altitude isotropic boundaries (IBs). The early theoretical estimates gave Kcr = 8, whereas recent estimations of the K parameter on the field lines corresponding to the observed IBs during the geomagnetic storms revealed KIB values in the range of 3–30. We numerically trace the trajectories of the 30 keV protons in the magnetic field of the global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the intense storm in order to infer statistical distribution of Kcr. The electric field and effects of nonstationarity are neglected in this study. It is found that although the Kcr values do show some variations during the course of the storm, its range is rather narrow 4 < Kcr < 8. The result suggests that higher KIB values found in the observational studies, if not caused by the magnetosphere-ionosphere mapping error, should be attributed to some other mechanism of pitch angle scattering. The Kcr values tend to be lower (4–6) during the main phase because the region of low K values approaches the Earth and the equatorial loss cone size becomes larger due to a larger equatorial magnetic field in the near earth region. The remaining variation of Kcr is explained by the presence of the guide component of the magnetic field.

S Dubyagin↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Study of the Impact of Variations on Aerodynamic Flow in Gas Turbine Engines via Monte-Carlo Simulations

The unsteady compressible inviscid flow is characterized by the conservations of mass, momentum, and energy; or simply the Euler equations. In this paper, a study of the subsonic one-dimensional Euler equations with local preconditioning is presented with a modal analysis approach. Specifically, this study investigates the behavior of airflow in a gas turbine engine using the specified conditions at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine, under the impact of variations in pressure, velocity, temperature, and density at low Mach numbers. Two main questions that motivate this research are: 1) Is there any aerodynamic problem with the existing gas turbine engines that could impact aircraft performance? 2) If yes, what aspect of a gas turbine engine could be improved via design to alleviate that impact and to optimize aircraft performance. This paper presents an initial attempt to the flow behavior in terms (perturbation) using simulation outputs from a customer-deck model obtained from Pratt&Whitney, (i.e., pressure, temperature, velocity, density) about their mean states at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine. Flow behavior is analyzed for the high pressure compressor and combustion chamber employing the conditions on their left and right boundaries. In the same fashion, similar analyses are carried out for the high and low-pressure turbines. In each case, the eigenfrequencies that are obtained for different boundary conditions are examined closely based on their probabilistic distributions, a result of a Monte Carlo 10,000-sample simulation. Furthermore, the characteristic waves and eave response are analyzed and contrasted among different cases, with and without preconditioners. The results reveal the existence of flow instabilities due to the combined effect of variations and excessive pressures; which are clearly the case in the combustion chamber and high-pressure turbine. Finally a discussion is presented on potential impacts of the instabilities and what can be improved via design to alleviate them for a better aircraft performance.

Ngo, Khiem Viet↗

NASA NTRS2004

Impact of Variations on 1-D Flow in Gas Turbine Engines via Monte Carlo Simulations

The unsteady compressible inviscid flow is characterized by the conservations of mass, momentum, and energy; or simply the Euler equations. In this paper, a study of the subsonic one-dimensional Euler equations with local preconditioning is presented using a modal analysis approach. Specifically, this study investigates the behavior of airflow in a gas turbine engine using the specified conditions at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine, to determine the impact of variations in pressure, velocity, temperature, and density at low Mach numbers. Two main questions motivate this research: 1) Is there any aerodynamic problem with the existing gas turbine engines that could impact aircraft performance? 2) If yes, what aspect of a gas turbine engine could be improved via design to alleviate that impact and to optimize aircraft performance? This paper presents an initial attempt to model the flow behavior in terms of their eigenfrequencies subject to the assumption of the uncertainty or variation (perturbation). The flow behavior is explored using simulation outputs from a customer-deck model obtained from Pratt & Whitney. Variations of the main variables (i.e., pressure, temperature, velocity, density) about their mean states at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine are modeled. Flow behavior is analyzed for the high-pressure compressor and combustion chamber utilizing the conditions on their left and right boundaries. In the same fashion, similar analyses are carried out for the high-pressure and low-pressure turbines. In each case, the eigenfrequencies that are obtained for different boundary conditions are examined closely based on their probabilistic distributions, a result of a Monte Carlo 10,000 sample simulation. Furthermore, the characteristic waves and wave response are analyzed and contrasted among different cases, with and without preconditioners. The results reveal the existence of flow instabilities due to the combined effect of variations and excessive pressures in the case of the combustion chamber and high-pressure turbine. Finally, a discussion is presented on potential impacts of the instabilities and what can be improved via design to alleviate them for a better aircraft performance.

Ngo, Khiem Viet↗

NASA NTRS2007

Convergent Close-Coupling Approach to Electron-Atom Collisions

It was with great pleasure and honour to accept the invitation to make a presentation at the symposium celebrating the life-long work of Aaron Temkin and Richard Drachman. The work of Aaron Temkin was particularly influential on our own during the development of the CCC method for electron-atom collisions. There are a number of key problems that need to be dealt with when developing a general computational approach to such collisions. Traditionally, the electron energy range was subdivided into the low, intermediate, and high energies. At the low energies only a finite number of channels are open and variational or close-coupling techniques could be used to obtain accurate results. At high energies an infinite number of discrete channels and the target continuum are open, but perturbative techniques are able to yield accurate results. However, at the intermediate energies perturbative techniques fail and computational approaches need to be found for treating the infinite number of open channels. In addition, there are also problems associated with the identical nature of electrons and the difficulty of implementing the boundary conditions for ionization processes. The beauty of the Temkin-Poet model of electron-hydrogen scattering is that it simplifies the full computational problem by neglecting any non-zero orbital angular momenta in the partial-wave expansion, without loosing the complexity associated with the above-mentioned problems. The unique nature of the problem allowed for accurate solution leading to benchmark results which could then be used to test the much more general approaches to electron-atom collision problems. The immense value of the Temkin-Poet model is readily summarised by the fact that the initial papers of Temkin and Poet have been collectively cited around 250 times to date and are still being cited in present times. Many of the citations came from our own work during the course of the development of the CCC method, which we now describe.

Bray, Igor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS1995

Three-dimensional solutions for coupled thermoelectroelastic response of multilayered plates

Analytic three-dimensional solutions are presented for the coupled thermoelectroelastic response of multilayered hybrid composite plates. The plates consist of a combination of fiber-reinforced cross-ply and piezothermoelastic layers. Both the thermoelectroelastic static response and its sensitivity coefficients are computed. The sensitivity coefficients measure the sensitivity of the response to variations in different mechanical, thermal and piezoelectric material properties of the plate. A linear constitutive model is used, and the material properties are assumed to be independent of the temperature and the electric field. The plates are assumed to have rectangular geometry and special material symmetries. A mixed formulation is used with the fundamental unknowns consisting of the three transverse stress components; three displacement components; transverse component of the electric displacement field; electric potential; transverse heat flux component, and temperature change. Each of the fundamental unknowns is expressed in terms of a double Fourier series in the Cartesian surface coordinates. A state space approach is used to generate the static response and to evaluate the sensitivity coefficients. Extensive numerical results are presented showing the effects of variation in the geometric parameters of the plate on the different response quantities and their sensitivity coefficients.

Xu, Kangming↗

NASA NTRS1993

DSMC and continuum analyses of low-density nozzle flow

Two different approaches, the direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method based on molecular gas dynamics and a finite-volume approximation of the Navier-Stokes equations, which are based on continuum gas dynamics, are employed in the analysis of a low-density gas flow in a small converging-diverging nozzle. The fluid experiences various kinds of flow regimes including continuum, slip, transition, and free-molecular. Results from the two numerical methods are compared with Rothe's experimental dam, in which density and rotational temperature variations along the centerline and at various locations inside a low density nozzle were measured by the electron-beam fluorescence technique. The continuum approach showed good agreement with the experimental data as far as density is concerned. The results from the DSMC method showed good agreement with the experimental data both in the density and the rotational temperature. It is also shown that the simulation parameters, such as the gas/surface interaction model, the energy exchange model between rotational and translational modes, and the viscosity temperature exponent, have substantial effects on the results of the DSMC method.

Chung, Chan-Hong↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

NASA NTRS1974

Ride quality - An exploratory study and criteria development

The Langley six degree of freedom visual motion simulator has been used to measure subjective response ratings of the ride quality of eight segments of flight, representative of a wide variation in comfort estimates. The results indicate that the use of simulators for this purpose appears promising. A preliminary approach for the development of criteria for ride quality ratings based on psychophysical precepts is included.

Stone, R. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Interaction between an elastic circular inclusion and two symmetrically placed collinear cracks

The paper investigates the fracture toughness of a flat large elastic cracked plate containing an elastic circular inclusion, using the plane stress crack-tip stress intensity factor as a criterion for fracture. In this plane stress geometry, each of the two collinear finite cracks is located on either side of the elastic circular inclusion and the geometry is subjected to uniform stresses at infinity. The analysis is based on the two-dimensional theory of elasticity by using the Muskhelishvili complex variable approach. Numerical calculations are reported for the case of simple tension normal to the crack direction and show the variation of the stress intensity factor with the configuration and elastic properties of the plate and the inclusion.

Hsu, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Studies in a transonic rotor aerodynamics and noise facility

The design, construction and testing of a transonic rotor aerodynamics and noise facility was undertaken, using a rotating arm blade element support technique. This approach provides a research capability intermediate between that of a stationary element in a moving flow and that of a complete rotating blade system, and permits the acoustic properties of blade tip elements to be studied in isolation. This approach is an inexpensive means of obtaining data at high subsonic and transonic tip speeds on the effect of variations in tip geometry. The facility may be suitable for research on broad band noise and discrete noise in addition to high-speed noise. Initial tests were conducted over the Mach number range 0.3 to 0.93 and confirmed the adequacy of the acoustic treatment used in the facility to avoid reflection from the enclosure.

Wright, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

1DVAR Analysis of Temperature and Humidity using GPS Radio Occulation Data

The Global Positioning System (GPS) enables positioning with a very small receiver. The signals transmitted by the GPS satellites are sensitive to the atmosphere and can be used to perform soundings with the radio occultation technique (e.g., Kursinski et al., 1997). The GPS signal can be converted to refractivity N via the Abel transform. The refractivity can then be related to atmospheric pressure P, temperature T, and water vapor partial pressure P (sub w) the GPS measurement, (between 0.5 and 1.5 km), its self-calibration, and it's nearly all-weather capabilities make it a good candidate for use in data assimilation systems (DAS) and numerical weather prediction (NWP). In order to demonstrate its usefulness in a DAS or NWP system, a first step is to assess its impact oil the analysis. A one-dimensional variational off-line analysis (1DVAR), meaning the data are not assimilated 'In the 3D DAS, constitutes a starting approach to which further enhancements can be made. The chosen observable to be analyzed in this study is the refractivity. One way to extract temperature (humidity) from the refractivity, is to assume a humidity (temperature) profile. One variable may then be retrieved without any a priori information. The 1DVAR approach used here resolves the ambiguity problem raised in the interpretation of these data. It enables retrieving these two atmospheric variables at a reasonable computing cost.

Poli, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2007

Noise Spectra and Directivity For a Scale-Model Landing Gear

An extensive experimental study has been conducted to acquire detailed noise spectra and directivity data for a high-fidelity, 6.3%-scale, Boeing 777 main landing gear. The measurements were conducted in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility using a 41-microphone directional array system positioned at a range of polar and azimuthal observer angles with respect to the model. DAMAS (Deconvolution Approach for the Mapping of Acoustic Sources) array processing as well as straightforward individual microphone processing were employed to compile unique flyover and sideline directivity databases for a range of freestream Mach numbers (0.11 - 0.17) covering typical approach conditions. Comprehensive corrections were applied to the test data to account for shear layer ray path and amplitude variations. This allowed proper beamforming at different measurement orientations, as well as directivity presentation in free-field emission coordinates. Four different configurations of the landing gear were tested: a baseline configuration with and without an attached side door, and a noise reduction concept "toboggan" truck fairing with and without side door. DAMAS noise source distributions were determined. Spectral analyses demonstrated that individual microphones could establish model spectra. This finding permitted the determination of unique, spatially-detailed directivity contours of spectral band levels over a hemispherical surface. Spectral scaling for the baseline model confirmed that the acoustic intensity scaled with the expected sixth-power of the Mach number. Finally, comparison of spectra and directivity between the baseline gear and the gear with an attached toboggan indicated that the toboggan fairing may be of some value in reducing gear noise over particular frequency ranges.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.

Kozlowski, Danielle↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Reference Field for GCR Simulation and an LET-Based Implementation at NSRL

Exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) on long duration deep space missions presents a serious health risk to astronauts, with large uncertainties connected to the biological response. In order to reduce the uncertainties and gain understanding about the basic mechanisms through which space radiation initiates cancer and other endpoints, radiobiology experiments are performed. Some of the accelerator facilities supporting such experiments have matured to a point where simulating the broad range of particles and energies characteristic of the GCR environment in a single experiment is feasible from a technology, usage, and cost perspective. In this work, several aspects of simulating the GCR environment in the laboratory are discussed. First, comparisons are made between direct simulation of the external, free space GCR field and simulation of the induced tissue field behind shielding. It is found that upper energy constraints at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) limit the ability to simulate the external, free space field directly (i.e. shielding placed in the beam line in front of a biological target and exposed to a free space spectrum). Second, variation in the induced tissue field associated with shielding configuration and solar activity is addressed. It is found that the observed variation is within physical uncertainties, allowing a single reference field for deep space missions to be defined. Third, an approach for simulating the reference field at NSRL is presented. The approach allows for the linear energy transfer (LET) spectrum of the reference field to be approximately represented with discrete ion and energy beams and implicitly maintains a reasonably accurate charge spectrum (or, average quality factor). Drawbacks of the proposed methodology are discussed and weighed against alternative simulation strategies. The neutron component and track structure characteristics of the proposed strategy are discussed in this context.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗

NASA NTRS2023

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗