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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Application of Jason-1 Measurements to Estimate the Global Near Surface Ocean Circulation for Climate Research

The scientific objective of this research program was to utilize drifter, Jason-1 altimeter data and a variety of wind data for the determination of time mean and time variable wind driven surface currents of the global ocean. To accomplish this task has required the interpolation of 6-hourly winds on drifter tracks and the computation of the wind coherent motions of the drifters. These calculations showed that the Ekman current model proposed by Ralph and Niiler for the tropical Pacific was valid for all the oceans south of 40N latitude. Improvements to RN99 model were computed and poster presentations of the results were given in several ocean science venues, including the November 2004 GODAY meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

Niiler, Peran P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Space-time Variability of Rain

Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment.

TRMM↗
NASA NTRS2019

Biomass-Burning Smoke Heights over the Amazon Observed from Space

We characterise the vertical distribution of biomass-burning emissions across the Amazon during the biomass-burning season (July–November) with an extensive climatology of smoke plumes derived from MISR and MODIS (2005–2012) and CALIOP (2006–2012) observations. Smoke plume heights exhibit substantial variability, spanning a few hundred metres up to 6 km above the terrain. However, the majority of the smoke is located at altitudes below 2.5 km. About 60 % of smoke plumes are observed in drought years, 40 %–50 % at the peak month of the burning season (September) and 94 % over tropical forest and savanna regions, with respect to the total number of smoke plume observations. At the time of the MISR observations (10:00–11:00 LT), the highest plumes are detected over grassland fires (with an averaged maximum plume height of ∼1100 m) and the lowest plumes occur over tropical forest fires (∼800 m). A similar pattern is found later in the day (14:00–15:00 LT) with CALIOP, although at higher altitudes (2300 m grassland vs. 2000 m tropical forest), as CALIOP typically detects smoke at higher altitudes due to its later overpass time, associated with a deeper planetary boundary layer, possibly more energetic fires, and greater sensitivity to thin aerosol layers. On average, 3 %–20 % of the fires inject smoke into the free troposphere; this percentage tends to increase toward the end of the burning season (November: 15 %–40 %). We find a well-defined seasonal cycle between MISR plume heights, MODIS fire radiative power and atmospheric stability across the main biomes of the Amazon, with higher smoke plumes, more intense fires and reduced atmospheric stability conditions toward the end of the burning season. Lower smoke plume heights are detected during drought (800 m) compared to non-drought (1100 m) conditions, in particular over tropical forest and savanna fires. Drought conditions favour understory fires over tropical forest, which tend to produce smouldering combustion and low smoke injection heights. Droughts also seem to favour deeper boundary layers and the percentage of smoke plumes that reach the free troposphere is lower during these dry conditions. Consistent with previous studies, the MISR mid-visible aerosol optical depth demonstrates that smoke makes a significant contribution to the total aerosol loading over the Amazon, which in combination with lower injection heights in drought periods has important implications for air quality. This work highlights the importance of biome type, fire properties and atmospheric and drought conditions for plume dynamics and smoke loading. In addition, our study demonstrates the value of combining observations of MISR and CALIOP constraints on the vertical distribution of smoke from biomass burning over the Amazon.

Gonzalez-Alonso, Laura↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Intercomparison Between Radar Reflectivity and the IR Cloud Classification Technique for the TOGA-COARE Area

Satellite infrared (IR) and visible (VIS) images from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere - Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) experiment are investigated through the use of Clustering Analysis. The clusters are obtained from the values of IR and VIS counts and the local variance for both channels. The clustering procedure is based on the standardized histogram of each variable obtained from 179 pairs of images. A new approach to classify high clouds using only IR and the clustering technique is proposed. This method allows the separation of the enhanced convection in two main classes: convective tops, more closely related to the most active core of the storm, and convective systems, which produce regions of merged, thick anvil clouds. The resulting classification of different portions of cloudiness is compared to the radar reflectivity field for intensive events. Convective Systems and Convective Tops are followed during their life cycle using the IR clustering method. The areal coverage of precipitation and features related to convective and stratiform rain is obtained from the radar for each stage of the evolving Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In order to compare the IR clustering method with a simple threshold technique, two IR thresholds (Tir) were used to identify different portions of cloudiness, Tir=240K which roughly defines the extent of all cloudiness associated with the MCS, and Tir=220K which indicates the presence of deep convection. It is shown that the IR clustering technique can be used as a simple alternative to identify the actual portion of convective and stratiform rainfall.

Carvalho, L. M. V.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.

Allen, Melissa↗
NASA NTRS2010

Directly Measured Heating Rates of a Tropical Subvisible Cirrus Cloud

We present the first direct measurements of the infrared and solar heating rates of a tropical subvisible cirrus (SVC) cloud sampled off the east coast of Nicaragua on 25 July 2007 by the NASA ER-2 aircraft during the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4). On this day a persistent thin cirrus layer, with mostly clear skies underneath, was detected in real time by the cloud lidar on the ER-2, and the aircraft was directed to profile down through the SVC. Measurements of the net broadband infrared irradiance and spectrally integrated solar irradiance above, below, and through the SVC are used to determine the infrared and solar heating rates of the cloud. The lidar measurements show that the variable SVC layer was located between approximately 13 and 15 km. Its midvisible optical depth varied from 0.01 to 0.10 with a mean of 0.034 +/- 0.033. Its depolarization ratio was approximately 0.4, indicative of ice clouds. From the divergence of the measured net irradiances the infrared heating rate of the SVC was determined to be approximately 2.50 - 3.24 K/d and the solar heating rate was found to be negligible. These values are consistent with previous indirect observations of other SVC and with model-generated heating rates of SVC with similar optical depths. This study illustrates the utility and potential of the profiling sampling strategy employed here. A more fully instrumented high-altitude aircraft that also included in situ cloud and aerosol probes would provide a comprehensive data set for characterizing both the radiative and microphysical properties of these ubiquitous tropical clouds

Bucholtz, Anthongy↗
NASA NTRS1985

Hemispheric differences in the earth radiation budget derived from Nimbus-7 related to climate studies

Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) data from Nimbus-7 over the period November 1978-June 1980 has consistently shown strong hemispheric differences when analyzed over different temporal and spatial scales. Hemispheric variations in time latitude cross sections of net and emitted radiation were found to be caused by changes in the earth-sun distance and continental effects. Maps of annual range for the entire earth calculated from monthly averages showed areas of high and low variability of the different ERB parameters. The ERB of these regional areas were examined and most of the variability was found to lay in the large amplitude of the annual solar cycle. Variations in the global annual cycle of albedo (Campbell et al. 1980) are studied with respect to differences in latitudinal averaged albedo. The anomaly in the annual cycle of global averaged albedo was found to be caused by tropical albedo changes.

Randel, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil

A satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating rainfall over northern South America is presented. The objectives are to examine the diurnal variability of rainfall and to investigate the relative contributions from the convective and stratiform components. In this study, we apply the Convective-Stratiform Technique (CST) of Adler and Negri (1988). The parameters of the original technique were re-calibrated using coincident rainfall estimates (Olson et W., 2000) derived from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and GOES IR (11 micrometer) observations. Local circulations were found to play a major role in modulating the rainfall and its diurnal cycle. These included land/sea circulations (notably along the northeast Brazilian coast and in the Gulf of Panama), mountain/valley circulations (along the Andes Mountains), and circulations associated with the presence of rivers. This last category was examined in detail along the Amazon R. east of Manaus. There we found an early morning rainfall maximum along the river (5 LT at 58W, 3 LT at 56W). Rainfall avoids the river in the afternoon (12 LT and later), notably at 56 W. The width of the river seems to be generating a land/river circulation which enhances early morning rainfall but inhibits afternoon rainfall. Results are compared to ground-based radar data collected during the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) experiment in southwest Brazil, to monthly raingages in northeastern Brazil, and to data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar.

Negri, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Microphysical Properties of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) play an important role in determining the composition of stratospheric air through dehydration of tropospheric air entering the stratosphere. This dehydration affects Earth's energy budget and climate, yet uncertainties remain regarding the microphysical processes that govern TTL cirrus. TTL cirrus were sampled with the NASA Global Hawk UAV for over 30 hr in the Western Pacific in 2014 during the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. In situ measurements by a Fast Cloud Droplet Probe and Hawkeye probe (combination Fast Cloud Droplet Probe, Two‐Dimensional Stereo optical array probe, and Cloud Particle Imager) provided particle concentrations and sizing between 1‐ and 1,280‐μm diameter and high resolution images for habit identification. We present the variability in ice concentrations, size distributions, and habits as functions of temperature, altitude, and time since convective influence. Observed ice particles were predominantly small and quasi‐spheroidal in shape, with the percentage of quasi‐spheroids increasing with decreasing temperature. In comparison to the large fraction of the population consisting of quasi‐spheroids, faceted habits (columns, plates, rosettes, and budding rosettes) constituted a smaller percentage of the overall population and exhibited the opposite correlation with temperature. The trend of higher percentages of faceted crystals occurring at warmer temperatures may be due to diffusional growth or aggregation as particles descend through cloud, and/or the more rapid diffusional growth rate at warmer temperatures. Sampling was typically well away from deep convection, however, and very few aggregates were observed, so the trend of higher percentages of faceted habits is likely attributable to diffusional growth.

Woods, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS1996

A New Parametrization of the Rain Drop Size Distribution

This paper revisits the problem of finding a parametric form for the rain drop size distribution (DSD) which 1) is an appropriate model for tropical rainfall, and 2) involves statistically independent parameters. Using TOGA/COARE data, we derive a parametrization which meets these criteria. This new parametrization is an improvement on the one that was derived in [3] using TRMM ground truth data from Darwin, Australia. The new COARE data allows us to verify that the spatial variability fo the two

rain↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS1984

Potential to kinetic energy conversion in wave number domain for the Southern Hemisphere

Preliminary results of a wave number study conducted for the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) using FGGE data for the period January 10-27, 1979 are reported. In particular, three variables (geomagnetic height, z, vertical p-velocity, omega, and temperature, T) and one energy conversion quantity, omega-alpha (where alpha is the specific volume), are shown. It is demonstrated that wave number 4 plays an important role in the conversion from available potential energy to kinetic energy in the Southern Hemisphere tropics, particularly in the vicinity of the SPCZ. It is therefore suggested that the development and movement of wave number 4 waves be carefully monitored in making forecasts for the South Pacific region.

Huang, H.-J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ocean Thermal and Color Evolution During the 1997/1998 ENSO Event

A reduced gravity primitive equation modeling and assimilation system is used to study the evolution of the tropical Pacific during the 1997/1998 ENSO cycle. The modeling/assimilation scheme ingests satellite altimeter data and TAO temperature profiles and uses SSM/I satellite derived winds as surface boundary forcing. The four-dimensional structure of the upper ocean circulation structure will be compared against available in situ observations across the Pacific basin. In particular, variability near the Galapagos Islands will be highlighted during the spring of 1998 when phytoplankton concentrations were observed to increase a hundred-fold over a two week period.

Rienecker, Michele↗
NASA NTRS2023

Comparison Between Ozone Column Depths and Methane Lifetimes Computed By One- and Three-Dimensional Models at Different Atmospheric O(2) Levels

The calculation of ozone column depth as a function of atmospheric O2concentration has been performed multiple times over the past 40 years using one-dimensional (1-D) photochemical models. Several of these calculations [1–3] have been done by the Kasting group. We refer to the current version of that model as the‘standard’1-D model (see §2). Recently, Cooke et al., henceforth C22 ,performed a similar calculation using a three-dimensional (3-D) coupled chemistry-climate model (WACCM6). They found substantially lower ozone column depths at lower pO2levels. For example, at0.01 times the present atmospheric level (PAL) of O(2), Segura et al. calculated 124 Dobson units(DU), whereas C22 calculated a mean column depth of just 66 DU—almost a factor of two lower. This comparison is shown in figure 1. C22 argued, correctly, that 3-D models should be able to do a better job on this problem than 1-D models because ozone column depths are affected by atmospheric transport, e.g. the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere that blows ozone from the tropics towards the poles, as well as vertical transport that carries ozone downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Meridional transport is absent in 1-D models, and vertical transport is fixed, so model geometry almost certainly contributes to the observed discrepancies in ozone column depth. The 3-D model also has a variable tropopause height (higher at the equator, lower towards the poles), which is difficult to simulate in one dimension.

Atmospheric chemistry↗