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At least 739 records · Page 41

Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Virgin America Operations

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

Henderson, Jeffrey↗

Contact with Bennu! Flight Performance Versus Prediction of OSIRIS-REx TAG Sample Collection

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission collected a sample from the surface of the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2020. Bennu challenged the team with a surface that was much rockier than expected, resulting in modifications to the prelaunch design of the Touch And Go (TAG) sequence. Following enhancements in onboard trajectory correction, ground-based navigation, and maneuver execution error modeling, the spacecraft was delivered to the chosen TAG site within 1 m of the target, and a sample was successfully collected on the first attempt. This paper provides a comprehensive description of all flight dynamics aspects of TAG trajectory planning and execution. It also describes hazard map generation and how that combined with error analysis results to predict the probability of safe contact before TAG and the onboard wave-off determination during TAG.

Kevin E Berry↗

Coordinated turn-and-reach movements. II. Planning in an external frame of reference

The preceding study demonstrated that normal subjects compensate for the additional interaction torques generated when a reaching movement is made during voluntary trunk rotation. The present paper assesses the influence of trunk rotation on finger trajectories and on interjoint coordination and determines whether simultaneous turn-and-reach movements are most simply described relative to a trunk-based or an external reference frame. Subjects reached to targets requiring different extents of arm joint and trunk rotation at a natural pace and quickly in normal lighting and in total darkness. We first examined whether the larger interaction torques generated during rapid turn-and-reach movements perturb finger trajectories and interjoint coordination and whether visual feedback plays a role in compensating for these torques. These issues were addressed using generalized Procrustes analysis (GPA), which attempts to overlap a group of configurations (e.g., joint trajectories) through translations and rotations in multi-dimensional space. We first used GPA to identify the mean intrinsic patterns of finger and joint trajectories (i.e., their average shape irrespective of location and orientation variability in the external and joint workspaces) from turn-and-reach movements performed in each experimental condition and then calculated their curvatures. We then quantified the discrepancy between each finger or joint trajectory and the intrinsic pattern both after GPA was applied individually to trajectories from a pair of experimental conditions and after GPA was applied to the same trajectories pooled together. For several subjects, joint trajectories but not finger trajectories were more curved in fast than slow movements. The curvature of both joint and finger trajectories of turn-and-reach movements was relatively unaffected by the vision conditions. Pooling across speed conditions significantly increased the discrepancy between joint but not finger trajectories for most subjects, indicating that subjects used different patterns of interjoint coordination in slow and fast movements while nevertheless preserving the shape of their finger trajectory. Higher movement speeds did not disrupt the arm joint rotations despite the larger interaction torques generated. Rather, subjects used the redundant degrees of freedom of the arm/trunk system to achieve similar finger trajectories with differing joint configurations. We examined finger movement patterns and velocity profiles to determine the frame of reference in which turn-and-reach movements could be most simply described. Finger trajectories of turn-and-reach movements had much larger curvatures and their velocity profiles were less smooth and less bell-like in trunk-based coordinates than in external coordinates. Taken together, these results support the conclusion that turn-and-reach movements are controlled in an external frame of reference.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Massive Trajectory Data Based on Patterns of Life

Individual human location trajectory and check-in data have been the driving force for human mobility research in recent years. However, existing human mobility datasets are very limited in size and representativeness. For example, one of the largest and most commonly used datasets of individual human location trajectories, GeoLife, captures fewer than two hundred individuals. To help fill this gap, this Data and Resources paper leverages an existing data generator based on fine-grained simulation of individual human patterns of life to produce large-scale trajectory, check-in, and social network data. In this simulation, individual human agents commute between their home and work locations, visit restaurants to eat, and visit recreational sites to meet friends. We provide large datasets of months of simulated trajectories for two example regions in the United States: San Francisco and New Orleans. In addition to making the datasets available, we also provide instructions on how the simulation can be used to re-generate data, thus allowing researchers to generate the data locally without downloading prohibitively large files.

Amiri, Hossein↗

Four-Dimensional Global Reference-Atmosphere Model

Four-Dimensional Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) computer program developed from empirical atmospheric model generating values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds, from ground to orbital altitudes. Is amalgamation of two empirical atmospheric models for low and high atmosphere with newly-developed latitude-and longitude-dependent model for middle atmosphere. UNIVAC version written in UNIVAC FORTRAN. DEC VAX version of GRAM written in FORTRAN 77. Applications include simulation of reentry trajectories of external tanks, studies of global circulation and diffusion and generation of plots or data for comparison.

Johnson, Dale↗

Low encounter speed comet COMA sample return missions

Comets, being considered the most primitive bodies in the solar system, command the highest priority among solar-system objects for studying solar nebula evolution and the evolution of life through biogenic elements and compounds. The study of comets, and more especially, of material from them, provides an understanding of the physical, chemical, and mineralogical processes operative in the formation and earliest development of the solar systems. These return samples will provide valuable information on comets and serve as a rosetta stone for the analytical studies conducted on interplanetary dust particles over the past two decades, and will provide much needed extraterrestrial samples for the planetary materials community since the Apollo program. Lander sample return missions require rather complex spacecraft, intricate operations, and costly propulsion systems. By contrast, it is possible to take a highly simplified approach for sample capture and return in the case of a comet. In the past, we have considered Earth free-return trajectory to the comet, in which passive collectors intercept dust and volatiles from the cometary coma. However, standard short period cometary free-return trajectories results in the comet to the spacecraft encounter speeds in the range of 10 km/s. At these speeds the kinetic energy of the capture process can render significant modification of dust structure, change of solid phase as well as the lost of volatiles components. This paper presents a class of new missions with trajectories with significant reduction of encounter speeds by incorporating gravity assists and deep space maneuvering. Low encounter speed cometary flyby sample return will enable a marked increase in the value of the return science. Acquiring thousands of samples from a known comet and thousands of images of a comet nucleus would be space firsts. Applying new approach in flight mechanics to generate a new class of low encounter speed cometary sample return trajectories opens new possibilities in science. A systematic search of trajectories for the first decade of the twenty-first century will be made. The target encounter speed is for less than 7 km/s to short period comets.

Tsou, P.↗

Prototype Tool and Focus Group Evaluation for an Advanced Trajectory-Based Operations Concept

Trajectory-based operations (TBO) is a key concept in the Next Generation Air Transportation System transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) that will increase the predictability and stability of traffic flows, support a common operational picture through the use of digital data sharing, facilitate more effective collaborative decision making between airspace users and air navigation service providers, and enable increased levels of integrated automation across the NAS. NASA has been developing trajectory-based systems to improve the efficiency of the NAS during specific phases of flight and is now also exploring Advanced 4-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) operational concepts that will integrate these technologies and incorporate new technology where needed to create both automation and procedures to support gate-to-gate TBO. A TBO Prototype simulation toolkit has been developed that demonstrates initial functionality of an Advanced 4DT TBO concept. Pilot and controller subject matter experts (SMEs) were brought to the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at NASA Langley Research Center for discussions on an Advanced 4DT operational concept and were provided an interactive demonstration of the TBO Prototype using four example scenarios. The SMEs provided feedback on potential operational, technological, and procedural opportunities and concerns. This paper describes an Advanced 4DT operational concept, the TBO Prototype, the demonstration scenarios and methods used, and the feedback obtained from the pilot and controller SMEs in this focus group activity.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

An Advanced Trajectory-Based Operations Prototype Tool and Focus Group Evaluation

Trajectory-based operations (TBO) is a key concept in the Next Generation Air Transportation System transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) that will increase the predictability and stability of traffic flows, support a common operational picture through the use of digital data sharing, facilitate more effective collaborative decision making between airspace users and air navigation service providers, and enable increased levels of integrated automation across the NAS. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been developing trajectory-based systems to improve the efficiency of the NAS during specific phases of flight and is now also exploring Advanced 4-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) operational concepts that will integrate these technologies and incorporate new technology where needed to create both automation and procedures to support gate-to-gate TBO. A TBO Prototype simulation toolkit has been developed that demonstrates initial functionality that may reside in an Advanced 4DT TBO concept. Pilot and controller subject matter experts (SMEs) were brought to the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at NASA Langley Research Center for discussions on an Advanced 4DT operational concept and were provided an interactive demonstration of the TBO Prototype using four example scenarios. The SMEs provided feedback on potential operational, technological, and procedural opportunities and concerns. After viewing the interactive demonstration scenarios, the SMEs felt the operational capabilities demonstrated would be useful for performing TBO while maintaining situation awareness and low mental workload. The TBO concept demonstrated produced defined routings around weather which resulted in a more organized, consistent flow of traffic where it was clear to both the controller and pilot what route the aircraft was to follow. In general, the controller SMEs felt that traffic flow management should be responsible for generating and negotiating the operational constraints demonstrated, in cooperation with the Air Traffic Control System Command Center, while air traffic control should be responsible for the implementation of those constraints. The SMEs also indicated that digital data communications would be very beneficial for TBO operations and would result in less workload due to reduced communications, would eliminate issues due to language barriers and frequency problems, and would make receiving, loading, accepting, and executing clearances easier, less ambiguous, and more expeditious. This paper describes an Advanced 4DT operational concept, the TBO Prototype, the demonstration scenarios and methods used, and the feedback obtained from the pilot and controller SMEs in this focus group evaluation.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Atmospheric Risk Assessment for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing System

In 2012, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems, by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. As with previous Mars landers, atmospheric conditions during entry, descent, and landing directly impact the performance of MSL's EDL system. While the vehicle's novel guided entry system allows it to "fly out" a range of atmospheric uncertainties, its trajectory through the atmosphere creates a variety of atmospheric sensitivities not present on previous Mars entry systems and landers. Given the mission's stringent landing capability requirements, understanding the atmosphere state and spacecraft sensitivities takes on heightened importance. MSL's guided entry trajectory differs significantly from recent Mars landers and includes events that generate different atmospheric sensitivities than past missions. The existence of these sensitivities and general advancement in the state of Mars atmospheric knowledge has led the MSL team to employ new atmosphere modeling techniques in addition to past practices. A joint EDL engineering and Mars atmosphere science and modeling team has been created to identify the key system sensitivities, gather available atmospheric data sets, develop relevant atmosphere models, and formulate methods to integrate atmosphere information into EDL performance assessments. The team consists of EDL engineers, project science staff, and Mars atmospheric scientists from a variety of institutions. This paper provides an overview of the system performance sensitivities that have driven the atmosphere modeling approach, discusses the atmosphere data sets and models employed by the team as a result of the identified sensitivities, and introduces the tools used to translate atmospheric knowledge into quantitative EDL performance assessments.

EDL↗

Electric Sail Design Sensitivities

Electric Sails (E-Sails) are a promising propulsion technology that seek to enable high characteristic propellentless acceleration for spacecraft to reach distant and/or difficult to reach orbits such as rapid transit to heliopause. The E-Sail system exchanges momentum by using positively charged electrostatic tethers to repel solar wind photons to push it through space. This concept was first theorized by Pekka Janhunen in 2004 with further developments occurring including a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Phase 1 and Phase 2 hosted out of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). These developments led to further maturation of the overall system, and this paper is designed to help identify different design sensitivities of an integrated Electric Sail system. To approach this, a small team at MSFC took an in-house developed three degrees of freedom (3DoF) simulation tool and a trajectory modelling tool to look at different design parameters and to determine a potential ideal E-Sail configuration. An E-Sail system has different design architectures including a barbell design, hub and spoke design, and a potential hybrid solution. The barbell design features two equally massed satellites that spin around a central point in the tether system. The hub and spoke design features a large central spacecraft with small end spacecraft to aid in formation control of the overall E-Sail system. Leveraging elements from both the hub and spoke, and barbell design, a hybrid option exists where one could have a larger central mass and one or two tethers extended to a smaller end mass [2]. In summary, the hub and spoke design is the ideal configuration for E-Sail with tethers spanning kilometers to achieve the designed design characteristic acceleration of at least one mm/s2 with this architecture being the focus of this study. Different key design parameters were varied as part of this study. These parameters include the total number of tethers, the length of the tethers, spin rate, relative spacecraft mass, tether voltage, inertia per tether, and impact of slew rate changes. These results started from an internal MSFC technology demonstration mission design and then the parameters were varied with engineering judgement to ensure that the results were consistent with expected results. These were varied in the MSFC 3DoF tool and compared to baseline results to generate a candidate ideal E-Sail design system. These results were then used to help inform the mission analysis design for the system. The 3DoF trajectory optimization was performed in the Astrodynamics and Space Science Enabling Toolbox (ASSET) and utilized collocation optimization of control vector pointing with the objective function being transfer duration. A representative model of the E-Sail force was derived as a function of the Sun-pointing vector direction. This model was initialized with a zero Sun Incidence Angle (SIA) trajectory for the initial guess generation, then with a portion of the mission optimized SIA time history for fast outbound transfers. After the trajectory is hyperbolic relative to a heliocentric frame, the SIA is maintained at 0 degrees except for any needed trajectory correction maneuvers. This trajectory optimization looked at different characteristic acceleration values to analyze the impact it had on mission performance. As a result of this study, the team can best inform mission designers and technology development efforts to mature the E-Sail system. This study will allow mission designers to have defined rules-of-thumb to design an E-Sail system to meet desired mission needs as well as providing several sample mission profiles. These design drivers will inform maturation efforts on which design requirements to consider for an integrated E-Sail design.

E-Sail↗

STS-1 orbital trajectory reconstruction using unmodelled acceleration estimation

A postflight trajectory reconstruction and analysis were conducted in order to determine the effects of unmodeled thrusting on the Space Shuttle Orbiter, to generate representative thrusting uncertainties for input to error analyses, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Ancillary trajectory data product and real-time vectors. The methods of selecting appropriate data arcs, time placement of compensation forces, limitations of the orbit determination process, and methods of evaluating solutions obtained from various force combinations are presented. It is shown that the estimation of forces to compensate for uncoupled attitude maneuvers and attitude hold maintenance thrusting significantly improves the postflight reconstruction of Space Shuttle Orbiter trajectories. A reduction of measurement residual statistics due to dynamic model uncertainties yields improved accuracy for postflight orbit determination.

Lacarna, R. J.↗

Large Angle Satellite Attitude Maneuvers

Two methods are proposed for performing large angle reorientation maneuvers. The first method is based upon Euler's rotation theorem; an arbitrary reorientation is ideally accomplished by rotating the spacecraft about a line which is fixed in both the body and in space. This scheme has been found to be best suited for the case in which the initial and desired attitude states have small angular velocities. The second scheme is more general in that a general class of transition trajectories is introduced which, in principle, allows transfer between arbitrary orientation and angular velocity states. The method generates transition maneuvers in which the uncontrolled (free) initial and final states are matched in orientation and angular velocity. The forced transition trajectory is obtained by using a weighted average of the unforced forward integration of the initial state and the unforced backward integration of the desired state. The current effort is centered around practical validation of this second class of maneuvers. Of particular concern is enforcement of given control system constraints and methods for suboptimization by proper selection of maneuver initiation and termination times. Analogous reorientation strategies which force smooth transition in angular momentum and/or rotational energy are under consideration.

Cochran, J. E.↗

Formation of a Tropopause Cirrus Layer Observed over Florida during CRYSTAL-FACE

On July 13, 2002 a widespread, subvisible tropopause cirrus layer occurred over the Florida region. This cloud was observed in great detail with the NASA Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) instrumentation, including in situ measurements with the WB-57 aircraft. In this paper, we use the 13 July cloud as a case study to evaluate the physical processes controlling the formation and evolution of tropopause cirrus layers. Microphysics measurements indicate that ice crystal diameters in the cloud layer ranged from about 7 to 50 microns, and the peak number mode was about 10-25 microns. In situ water vapor and temperature measurements in the cloud indicated supersaturation with respect to ice throughout, with ice saturation ratios as large as 1.8. Even when the ice surface area density was as high as about 500 sq microns/cu cm, ice supersaturations of 20-30% were observed. Trajectory analysis shows that the air sampled near the tropopause on this day generally came from the north and cooled considerably during the previous few days. Examination of infrared satellite imagery along air parcel back trajectories from the WB-57 flight track indicates that the tropopause cloud layer formation was, in general, not simply left over ice from recently generated anvil cirrus. Simulations of cloud formation using time-height curtains of temperature along the trajectory paths show that the cloud could have formed in situ near the tropopause as the air was advected into the south Florida region and cooled to unusually low temperatures. If we assume a high threshold for ice nucleation via homogeneous freezing of aqueous sulfate aerosols, the model reproduces the observed cloud structure, ice crystal size distributions, and ice supersaturation statistics. Inclusion of observed gravity wave temperature perturbations in the simulations is essential to reproduce the observed cloud properties. Without waves, crystal number densities are too low, crystal sizes are too large, and the crystals fall out too fast, leaving very little cloud persisting at the end of the simulations. In the cloud simulations, coincidence of high supersaturations and high surface areas can be produced by either recent nucleation or sedimentation of crystals into supersaturated layers. The agreement between model results and observed supersaturations is improved somewhat if we assume that the steady state relative humidity within cirrus at T<200 K is enhanced by about 30%. The WB-57 measurements and the model results suggest that the cloud layer irreversibly dehydrated air near the tropopause.

Jensen, Eric↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

Phase-Free Orbital Element Model Designed to Enable Rapid Assessment of Eclipse and Radiation Profiles for Low-Thrust Spiral Transfers Around the Earth

The Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) will be the first low-thrust solar electric ion propulsion mission to transfer from a highly elliptical Earth-bound orbit to a southern near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) at the Earth-Moon L2 point. Due to the low thrust nature of the transfer orbit, it is desirable to locate viable trajectories that minimize the time spent in the Van Allen radiation belts to reduce solar array degradation and keep radiation dosages below design limits. In addition to radiation, low thrust trajectories which spiral around the Earth will pass through at least one or more seasons of Earth eclipses. The solar electric propulsion system relies on sunlight to generate the power necessary to operate the ion thrusters. Therefore, it is advantageous to find trajectories which also minimize the amount of time spent in eclipse and avoid excessive battery draw-down periods. We present an analytical method which rapidly approximates low-thrust spiral trajectories, fit to high-fidelity simulated data and parameterized to allow for changes in vehicle thrust characteristics, that is post-processed to determine eclipse profiles and time spent in the belts using a novel approach that estimates the geometry of the belts using a first-order dipole approximation of the Earth’s magnetic field. This method can be used to find satisfactory launch dates and orbit orientations that can serve as initial guesses when optimizing such missions in high-fidelity software.

low thrust trajectory design↗

Phase-Free Orbital Element Model Designed to Enable Rapid Assessment of Eclipse and Radiation Profiles for Low-Thrust Spiral Transfers Around the Earth

The Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) will be the first low-thrust solar electric ion propulsion mission to transfer from a highly elliptical Earth-bound orbit to a southern near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) at the Earth-Moon L2 point. Due to the low thrust nature of the transfer orbit, it is desirable to locate viable trajectories that minimize the time spent in the Van Allen radiation belts to reduce solar array degradation and keep radiation dosages below design limits. In addition to radiation, low thrust trajectories which spiral around the Earth will pass through at least one or more seasons of Earth eclipses. The solar electric propulsion system relies on sunlight to generate the power necessary to operate the ion thrusters. Therefore, it is advantageous to find trajectories which also minimize the amount of time spent in eclipse and avoid excessive battery draw-down periods. We present an analytical method which rapidly approximates low-thrust spiral trajectories, fit to high-fidelity simulated data and parameterized to allow for changes in vehicle thrust characteristics, that is post-processed to determine eclipse profiles and time spent in the belts using a novel approach that estimates the geometry of the belts using a first-order dipole approximation of the Earth’s magnetic field. This method can be used to find satisfactory launch dates and orbit orientations that can serve as initial guesses when optimizing such missions in high-fidelity software.

low thrust trajectory design↗

Optimal low-thrust takeoff from an orbit about an oblate planet

Future space missions to the outer planets may depend upon the use of low-thrust propulsion systems. As these planets are decidedly oblate, the question of the effect of that oblateness on a low-thrust trajectory is of some interest. In this paper the problem of optimal energy increase is attacked under the assumption that the coefficients for the second zonal harmonic, and the nondimensional thrust acceleration are the same order of magnitude. By means of a two-variable asymptotic expansion technique, a near optimal control program is generated and the first-order uniformly valid approximation for the corresponding trajectory is obtained. Tangential thrust is shown to be a good near-optimal thrust program even in the presence of oblateness effects. The optimal control program is found to be oscillatory and quite similar to the optimal control for energy increase in an inverse square gravitational field.

Jacobson, R. A.↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗