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A brief overview of statistical tools needed to perform post flight/test reconstruction of state variables is given. Linear regression, recursive linear regression, and the exact connection between the Kalman filter and linear regression are discussed. The regression connection is expected to serve as an aid in the application of a recently developed analytical method of flight reconstruction to single engine test firing data.
Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.
Navigation strategies typically use linearized techniques to predict maneuver statistics. This method has been successfully employed on numerous high-energy trajectories, but may not be valid for low-energy ones due to the highly non-linear environment. We explore nonlinear navigational techniques applied to a Europa Lander concept by assessing trajectory sensitivity. The linearity assumption is tested at different phases of the endgame trajectory. Maneuver strategies and placement are considered to improve the delivery to Europa. Several cases of non-linear statistical maneuver Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to optimize maneuvers and compare ∆V statistics against conventional linear simulations.
Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.
Statistical modeling of atmospheric turbulence is discussed. The statistical properties of atmospheric turbulence, in particular the probability distribution, the spectra, and the coherence are reviewed. Different atmospheric turbulence simulation models are investigated, and appropriate statistical analyses are carried out to verify their validity. The models for simulation are incorporated into a computer model of aircraft flight dynamics. Statistical results of computer simulated landings for an aircraft having characteristics of a DC-8 are reported for the different turbulence simulation techniques. The significance of various degrees of sophistication in the turbulence simulation techniques on the landing performance of the aircraft is discussed.
The shape characteristics of particles have a pinnacle role in microsopic and macroscopic features of a system. Several studies have highlighted the need for considering deviations from a spherical representation of particles for accurate modeling of granular and multiphase flow systems. Using a shape factor, sphericity or roundness parameter alone is proven to be inadequate to capture the physical phenomena. In the present study we propose a novel metric based on the pattern recognition method Eigenfaces, coining the technique ‘Eigenparticles’. Using this technique we create a single statistical distribution of basis shapes to describe the morphological composition. The proposed technique is successfully validated with test shapes and applied to real particles. As a result, when compared with a state-of-the-art Fourier based method, ‘Eigenparticles’ performs favorably, clearly distinguishing the different particles.
The study of the hadronic spectrum is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the mechanism at the basis of quark confinement within hadrons. A precise determination of the spectrum allows not only to assess the properties of the hadrons in their fundamental and excited states, but also to investigate the existence of states resulting from alternative configurations of quarks and gluons, such as the glue-balls, hybrid hadrons and many-quarks configurations. The study of the mesonic part of the spectrum can play a central role in this investigation thanks to the strong signature that the hybrid mesons are expected to have: the presence of explicit gluonic degrees of freedom in such states may result in JPC configurations not allowed for the standard q ¯ q states. From the experimental side the expected high-multiplicity decays of the hybrid mesons require an apparatus with high performances in terms of rate-capability, resolution and acceptance. The CLAS12 experiment (formally MesonEx) is one of new-generation experiments at Thomas Jefferson National Laboratory (JLAB) for which an unprecedented statistics of events, with fully reconstructed kinematics for large particle multiplicity decays, will be available. A wide scientific program that will start in 2016 has been deployed for meson spectrum investigation with the CLAS12 apparatus in Hall B at energies up to 11 GeV. One of the main parts of the program is based on the use of the Forward Tagger apparatus, which will allow CLAS12 experiment to extend the study of meson electro-production to the quasi-real photo-production kinematical region (very low Q2), where the production of hybrid mesons is expected to be favoured. The data analysis which is required to extract the signal from hybrid states should go beyond the standard partial wave analysis techniques and a new analysis framework is being set up through the international network Haspect. The Haspect Network gathers people involved into theoretical and experimental hadronic physics all over the world, to investigate and propose new analysis models and new statistical techniques to unfold signal and background. The new analysis framework is being developed and tested using the existing CLAS data and results are projected to the CLAS12 performances, showing that the quest for hybrid exotic mesons is at reach.
The objective of the research conducted in this project is to develop a methodology to investigate the accuracy of Airport Safety Modeling Data (ASMD) using statistical, visualization, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques. Such a methodology can contribute to answering the following research questions: Over a representative sampling of ASMD databases, can statistical error analysis techniques be accurately learned and replicated by ANN modeling techniques? This representative ASMD sample should include numerous airports and a variety of terrain characterizations. Is it possible to identify and automate the recognition of patterns of error related to geographical features? Do such patterns of error relate to specific geographical features, such as elevation or terrain slope? Is it possible to combine the errors in small regions into an error prediction for a larger region? What are the data density reduction implications of this work? ASMD may be used as the source of terrain data for a synthetic visual system to be used in the cockpit of aircraft when visual reference to ground features is not possible during conditions of marginal weather or reduced visibility. In this research, United States Geologic Survey (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) data has been selected as the benchmark. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS) have been used and tested as alternate methods in place of the statistical methods in similar problems. They often perform better in pattern recognition, prediction and classification and categorization problems. Many studies show that when the data is complex and noisy, the accuracy of ANN models is generally higher than those of comparable traditional methods.
The matrix element technique provides a superior statistical sensitivity for precision measurements of important parameters at hadron colliders, such as the mass of the top quark or the cross-section for the production of Higgs bosons. The main practical limitation of the technique is its high computational demand. Using the example of the top quark mass, we present two approaches to reduce the computation time of the technique by a factor of 90. First, we utilize low-discrepancy sequences for numerical Monte Carlo integration in conjunction with a dedicated estimator of numerical uncertainty, a novelty in the context of the matrix element technique. We then utilize a new approach that factorizes the overall jet energy scale from the matrix element computation, a novelty in the context of top quark mass measurements. The utilization of low-discrepancy sequences is of particular general interest, as it is universally applicable to Monte Carlo integration, and independent of the computing environment.
This theoretical treatment of low-energy compound nucleus reactions begins with the Bohr hypothesis, with corrections, and various statistical theories. The author investigates the statistical properties of the scattering matrix containing a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE) Hamiltonian in the propagator. The following conclusions are reached: For all parameter values studied, the numerical average of MC-generated cross sections coincides with the result of the Verbaarschot, Weidenmueller, Zirnbauer triple-integral formula. Energy average and ensemble average agree reasonably well when the width I is one or two orders of magnitude larger than the average resonance spacing d. In the strong-absorption limit, the channel degree-of-freedom ν a is 2. The direct reaction increases the inelastic cross sections while the elastic cross section is reduced.
Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) is the task of classifying electronic pulse shapes for different particle types such as gamma rays and fast neutrons interacting in scintillators and read out by photo sensitive detectors. This field has been limited in its adoption of techniques found in the statistical learning community. Methods initially employed in the 1960s for analog electronic circuitry persist in the current PSD literature describing operations performed on digitized pulses, which are amenable to statistical rigor. Despite vast amounts of data collected at low energy levels, traditional PSD methods are unable to discriminate particles below a certain threshold. As such, in this work, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used as a clustering technique for fast neutron detection in the absence of labeled data. GMMs yield improvements spanning the energy spectrum in a desirably efficient, unsupervised fashion. An extension, the Dirichlet Process GMM, provides further flexibility and classification improvement.
Two techniques were developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters that overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant 'blue shift' of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on 'global' internal-wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12 deg of the equator.
Capabilities of advanced material-testing techniques analyzed. Collection of four reports illustrates statistical method for characterizing flaw-detecting capabilities of sophisticated nondestructive evaluation (NDE). Method used to determine reliability of several state-of-the-art NDE techniques for detecting failure-causing flaws in advanced ceramic materials considered for use in automobiles, airplanes, and space vehicles.
In pressurized water reactors, the prevention, detection, and repair of cracks within dissimilar metal welds is essential to ensure proper plant functionality and safety. Weld residual stresses, which are difficult to model and cannot be directly measured, contribute to the formation and growth of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking. Additionally, the uncertainty in weld residual stress measurements and modeling predictions is not well understood, further complicating the prediction of crack evolution. The purpose of this document is to develop methodology to quantify the uncertainty associated with weld residual stress that can be applied to modeling predictions and experimental measurements. Ultimately, the results can be used to assess the current state of uncertainty and to build confidence in both modeling and experimental procedures. The methodology consists of statistically modeling the variation in the weld residual stress profiles using functional data analysis techniques. Uncertainty is quantified using statistical bounds (e.g. confidence and tolerance bounds) constructed with a semi-parametric bootstrap procedure. Such bounds describe the range in which quantities of interest, such as means, are expected to lie as evidenced by the data. The methodology is extended to provide direct comparisons between experimental measurements and modeling predictions by constructing statistical confidence bounds for the average difference between the two quantities. The statistical bounds on the average difference can be used to assess the level of agreement between measurements and predictions. The methodology is applied to experimental measurements of residual stress obtained using two strain relief measurement methods and predictions from seven finite element models developed by different organizations during a round robin study.
Technical Area-18 (TA-18), also known as Pajarito Site, is located on Los Alamos National Laboratory property and has historic buildings that will be included in the Manhattan Project National Historic Park. Characterization studies of metal contamination were needed in two of the four buildings that are on the historic registry in this area, a “battleship” bunker building (TA-18-0002) and the Pond cabin (TA-18-0029). However, these two buildings have been exposed to the elements, are decades old, and have porous and rough surfaces (wood and concrete). Due to these conditions, it was questioned whether standard wipe sampling would be adequate to detect surface dust metal contamination in these buildings. Thus, micro-vacuum and surface wet wipe sampling techniques were performed side-by-side at both buildings and results were compared statistically. A two-tail paired t-test revealed that the micro-vacuum and wet wipe techniques were statistically different for both buildings. Further mathematical analysis revealed that the wet wipe technique picked up more metals from the surface than the microvacuum technique. Wet wipes revealed concentrations of beryllium and lead above internal housekeeping limits; however, using an yttrium normalization method with linear regression analysis between beryllium and yttrium revealed a correlation indicating that the beryllium levels were likely due to background and not operational contamination. PPE and administrative controls were implemented for National Park Service (NPS) and Department of Energy (DOE) tours as a result of this study. Overall, this study indicates that the micro-vacuum technique may not be an efficient technique to sample for metal dust contamination.
This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.
We present a comparison of two different techniques: Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and wavelength-dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy by electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) for obtaining Mg/Ca ratios in individual foraminifera shells. The goal is to assess the use of EPMA as an alternative technique for Mg/Ca analyses of single foraminiferal calcite shells. Foraminifera obtained from sediments (benthic, Uvigerina spp.) and from plankton tows (planktonic, Orbulina universa) were analyzed. All specimens were prepared in epoxy mounts and exposed in cross-section such that multiple high-resolution analyses could be completed on the shells using both techniques. We examined our data using statistical methods designed for the assessment and comparison of measurement techniques. In the case of Uvigerina, the mean difference for ratios obtained using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS is very small (−0.046 mmol mol−1) and scale independent. The Limits of Agreement (LoA, the standard deviation of the bias plus the mean bias) is [−0.315, 0.223] mmol mol−1. For samples with ratios lower than 13 mmol mol−1, we found a mean EPMA–LA-ICP-MS bias of −2.44 mmol mol−1 and a corresponding LoA of [−3.85, −1.04] mmol mol−1. For ratios higher than 13 mmol mol−1, there appears to be a scale dependent bias, meaning that the EPMA measured ratios become progressively larger than those of LA-ICP-MS as the Mg/Ca ratio increases, so the mean bias and LoA metrics are not meaningful. Results indicate that it is possible to use EPMA to collect Mg/Ca data, if the ratios are lower than ∼13 mmol mol−1.
Ultrasonic testing is a common Non-Destructive Inspection (NDI) method used in aerospace manufacturing. However, the complexity and size of the ultrasonic scans make it challenging to identify defects through visual inspection or machine learning models. Using computer vision techniques to identify defects from ultrasonic scans is an evolving research area. In this study, we used instance segmentation to identify the presence of defects in the ultrasonic scan images of composite panels that are representative of real components manufactured in aerospace. We used two models based on Mask- RCNN (Detectron 2) and YOLO 11 respectively. Additionally, we implemented a simple statistical pre-processing technique that reduces the burden of requiring custom-tailored pre-processing techniques. Our study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of using instance segmentation in the NDI pipeline by significantly reducing data pre-processing time, inspection time, and overall costs.