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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark Solutions for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Inhomogeneous Material Statistics

Accurately solving implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) thermal photon transport problems with mixed material cells is important in realistic applications. The production IMC package at LLNL treats mixed material cells arising from ALE remap and hydrodynamics using the same approximate model. The new Imp IMC thermal photon transport package currently under development has both a material interface reconstruction (MIR) algorithm and a Levermore-Pomraning (LP) stochastic medium algorithm for treating mixed material cells. Existing stochastic medium algorithms for treating mixed material cells in IMC lack a complete theoretical basis. The IMC LP algorithm implementation has been demonstrated to reproduce published deterministic LP solutions for the particular case of spatially homogeneous material statistics. Realistic simulations will include spatially inhomogeneous material statistics (material mean chord lengths). In a previous investigation, the LP-model for transport in binary stochastic media in rod geometry was generalized to accommodate spatially varying material chord lengths, i.e., the mixing statistics were allowed to be nonhomogeneous. Analytical solutions were obtained and used to produce a verifi cation suite for the Imp IMC Levermore-Pomraning implementation for different spatial variations of the chord lengths. However, the accuracy of the LP model when the mixing statistics are nonhomogeneous has not been assessed and leaves open the question of whether local accuracy is improved or further degraded when chord lengths are not uniform. This shortcoming is rectifi ed here by developing benchmark analytic solutions for transport in binary Markovian stochastic mixtures in rod geometry with nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, using spatially varying chord lengths considered in the previous investigation based on the LP model. Methods for sampling a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) are first described and used to construct individual realizations of the binary mixtures in rod geometry. Analytic solutions are then obtained for the forward and backward directed fluxes on a given realization, now viewed as a deterministic medium with alternating layers of the two materials with known interface locations. Finally, material averaged scalar fluxes are obtained using these sampling schemes with spatially linear and quadratic chord lengths and used to assess the accuracy of the previously obtained LP-model results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microstructure characterization of electric field assisted sintering (EFAS) sintered metallic and ceramic materials using local thermal diffusivity measurement

Electric Field Assisted Sintering (EFAS, also referred to as spark plasma sintering) is a powerful technology for the consolidation of powder materials. The high heating rate during the sintering process is critical for minimizing energy consumption, but it can also cause microstructure heterogeneities in sintered parts, such as spatially varied porosity. The examination of localized porosity usually requires the use of a scanning electron microscope with a carefully prepared surface. In this paper, photothermal radiometry is used to measure local thermal diffusivity and extract localized porosity of EFAS-sintered parts by using a percolation-threshold model. Applying this approach, we identified the radial position-dependent porosity variation in EFAS parts, which is likely formed due to the large temperature gradient during the sintering process. This approach has a unique advantage because it can measure samples with minimal or no surface preparation, enabling the possibility of in situ characterization in EFAS with proper system modification. Necessary modifications on the measurement approach for EFAS deployment and in situ characterization are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The oscillatory anisotropy in the spatially flat cosmological models

Highlights: • Relations among asymptotic anisotropy and matter content. • A new scheme for obtaining physically motivated exact solutions. • The process of isotropization/anisotropization in cosmology. • The conversion among the anisotropy and the energy density into one another. In this manuscript, we investigate the oscillatory behaviour of the anisotropy in the diagonal Bianchi-I spacetimes. Our starting point is a simplification of Einstein’s equations using only observable or physical variables. As a consequence, we are able to: (a) Prove general results concerning the existence of oscillations of the anisotropy in the primordial and the late-time universe. For instance, in the expanding scenario, we show that a past weakly mixmaster behaviour (oscillations as we approach the Kasner solutions) might appear even with no violation of the usual energy conditions, while in the future, the pulsation (oscillations around isotropic solutions) seems to be most favoured; (b) Determine a large scheme for deriving classes of physically motivated exact solutions, and we give some (including the general barotropic perfect fluid and the magnetic one); (c) Understand the physical conditions for the occurrence of the isotropization or anisotropization during the cosmological evolution; (d) Understand how anisotropy and energy density are converted one into another. In particular, we call attention to the presence of a residue in the energy density in a late-time isotropic universe coming from its past anisotropic behaviour.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Spatially Resolved Evaluation of Accelerated Environmental Aging on Emerging Polypropylene-Based Photovoltaic Backsheets Using Raman Spectroscopy

For this work, accelerated aging was used to assess environmental degradation in emerging co-extruded polypropylene (PP)-based backsheets under three different environmental conditions (65°C/20% relative humidity (RH), 75°C/20% RH, and 75°C/50% RH). Although differential scanning calorimetry did not measure crystallinity changes with exposure, spatially resolved Raman spectroscopy identified crystallinity increases in the core layer of aged samples, indicating a heterogeneous postcrystallization process. The Raman results were in agreement with synchrotron-based microfocused wide-angle X-ray scattering measurements. Cross-sectional nanoindentation was used to correlate localized crystallinity shifts with changes in Young's modulus. A similar trend was found where increased modulus was measured in the core layer, supporting the relationship between modulus and crystallinity. Finally, dielectric characterization was used to assess the impact of these material property changes on performance. While changes in the backsheet material properties and dielectric performance were observed with accelerated aging, these shifts generally equilibrated with time, indicating overall stability in response to environmental stressors. Additionally, the identified heterogeneous material property changes indicate that spatially resolved crystallinity measurements may be a valuable early failure indicator to be used in the assessment of PV backsheet long-term durability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Part-scale evolution of fine-scale microstructural heterogeneity in solid-state additive manufacturing

Current solid-state additive manufacturing methods, refined through costly and time-consuming trial and error, have spurred interest in computational models that replicate material behavior under typical thermomechanical conditions (e.g., strain-rate ~ 102 s−1). These models, however, struggle to capture time-dependent microstructural evolution. In this work, Additive Friction-Stir Deposition (AFSD) is used as a representative case study for part-scale quantification of microstructure evolution at a fine spatial resolution (200 μm) by examining a liquid-nitrogen-cooled stop-action build via energy-dispersive X-ray diffraction coupled with a multi-channel detector. These results inform modeling efforts by linking process asymmetry to stored plastic strain, residual elastic strain, and texture development, and unlike current state-of-the-art characterization methods (e.g., EBSD or neutron diffraction), this approach provides both the spatial resolution and collection efficiency necessary to quantify fine-scale microstructural heterogeneity over large component volumes. As such, this technique provides essential validation data for computational models, e.g., crystal plasticity, enabling future prediction of heterogeneous behavior in AFSD and other additive manufacturing processes.

Franz, Cole [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000213465881)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanism-Based Energy Regularization in Computational Modeling of Quasibrittle Fracture

Abstract Quasibrittle materials are featured by a strain-softening constitutive behavior under many loading scenarios, which could eventually lead to localization instability. It has long been known that strain localization would result in spurious mesh sensitivity in finite element (FE) simulations. Previous studies have shown that, for the case of fully localized damage, the mesh sensitivity can be mitigated through energy regularization of the material constitutive law. However, depending on the loading configuration and structural geometry, quasibrittle structures could exhibit a complex damage process, which involves both localized and diffused damage patterns at different stages of loading. This study presents a generalized energy regularization method that considers the spatial and temporal evolution of damage pattern. The method introduces a localization parameter, which describes the local damage pattern. The localization parameter governs the energy regularization of the constitutive model, which captures the transition from diffused to localized damage during the failure process. The method is cast into an isotropic damage model, and is further extended to rate-dependent behavior. The energy regularization scheme is directly incorporated into the kinetics of damage growth. The model is applied to simulate static and dynamic failures of ceramic specimens. It is shown that the present model is able to effectively mitigate the spurious mesh sensitivity in FE simulations of both types of failure. The present analysis demonstrates the essential role of mechanism-based energy regularization of constitutive relation in FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear electronic excitation in water under proton irradiation: a first principles study

Nonlinear dynamics of electronic excitation bridge physical and physicochemical stages of water radiolysis under proton irradiation, a multi-scale physicochemical process that is fundamental to a wide range of technological and medical applications of high-energy protons. We study the spatial and temporal changes to the excited holes generated in this ionization event using first-principles theory simulation. A significant majority of holes are formed in the immediate vicinity of the irradiating proton paths, and these holes decay rapidly, while secondary excitations are simultaneously induced in regions farther away. While the hole population remains constant, the observed spatially spreading hole distribution cannot be described as concentration-dependent diffusion current. Compared to the primary excitation induced by the irradiating protons, the secondary excitation farther away is somewhat less energetic. Here, the first-principles theory simulation here provides a detailed description of how the primary excitation by proton radiation precedes the formation of cationic holes, which undergo ultrafast chemical processes in water radiolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust framework and software implementation for fast speciation mapping

One of the greatest benefits of synchrotron radiation is the ability to perform chemical speciation analysis through X-ray absorption spectroscopies (XAS). XAS imaging of large sample areas can be performed with either full-field or raster-scanning modalities. A common practice to reduce acquisition time while decreasing dose and/or increasing spatial resolution is to compare X-ray fluorescence images collected at a few diagnostic energies. In this work, several authors have used different multivariate data processing strategies to establish speciation maps. Furthermore, the theoretical aspects and assumptions that are often made in the analysis of these datasets are focused on. A robust framework is developed to perform speciation mapping in large bulk samples at high spatial resolution by comparison with known references. Two fully operational software implementations are provided: a user-friendly implementation within the MicroAnalysis Toolkit software, and a dedicated script developed under the R environment. The procedure is exemplified through the study of a cross section of a typical fossil specimen. Additionally, the algorithm provides accurate speciation and concentration mapping while decreasing the data collection time by typically two or three orders of magnitude compared with the collection of whole spectra at each pixel. Whereas acquisition of spectral datacubes on large areas leads to very high irradiation times and doses, which can considerably lengthen experiments and generate significant alteration of radiation-sensitive materials, this sparse excitation energy procedure brings the total irradiation dose greatly below radiation damage thresholds identified in previous studies. This approach is particularly adapted to the chemical study of heterogeneous radiation-sensitive samples encountered in environmental, material, and life sciences.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Key environmental and production factors for understanding variation in switchgrass chemical attributes

Abstract Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts; however, its inherent variability in chemical attributes creates challenges for uniform conversion efficiencies and product quality. It is necessary to understand the range of variation and factors (i.e., field management, environmental) influencing chemical attributes for process improvement and risk assessment. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application rate, year, and location on switchgrass chemical attributes, (2) examine the relationships among chemical attributes, weather and soil data, and (3) develop models to predict chemical attributes using environmental factors. Switchgrass samples from a field study spanning four locations including upland cultivars, one location including a lowland cultivar, and between three and six harvest years were assessed for glucan, xylan, lignin, volatiles, carbon, nitrogen, and ash concentrations. Using variance estimation, location/cultivar, nitrogen application rate, and year explained 65%–96% of the variation for switchgrass chemical attributes. Location/cultivar × year interaction was a significant factor for all chemical attributes indicating environmental‐based influences. Nitrogen rate was less influential. Production variables and environmental conditions occurring during the switchgrass field trials were used to successfully predict chemical attributes using linear regression models. Upland switchgrass results highlight the complexity in plant responses to growing conditions because all production and environmental variables had strong relationships with one or more chemical attributes. Lowland switchgrass was limited to observations of year‐to‐year environmental variability and nitrogen application rate. All explanatory variable categories were important for lowland switchgrass models but stand age and precipitation relationships were particularly strong. The relationships found in this study can be used to understand spatial and temporal variation in switchgrass chemical attributes. The ability to predict chemical attributes critical for conversion processes in a geospatial/temporal manner would provide state‐of‐the‐art knowledge for risk assessment in the bioenergy and bioproducts industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Buried interface modulation via $\mathrm{PEDOT:PSS}$ ionic exchange for the Sn-Pb mixed perovskite based solar cells

To apply Sn-Pb mixed perovskite solar cells for highly efficient single- or multi-junction devices, understanding device-specific buried interfaces is necessary. Poly [3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene]:poly[styrene sulfonate] (PEDOT:PSS) is primarily used as a hole transport layer in Sn-Pb mixed perovskite solar cells. However, the spatial heterogeneity of PEDOT:PSS, caused by its PEDOT-rich and PSS-rich domains, induces many defects at the buried interface in PEDOT:PSS/perovskite, which limits device performance. Here, we present ionic exchange (IE) of PEDOT:PSS via a combination of methylamine iodide (MAI) and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). Through surface analyses and density functional theory (DFT) simulations, we confirm that the IE process preferentially form PEDOT-I and MA-PSS and that PSS-rich domains bind to DMSO. Thus, the spatial separation of PEDOT:PSS is solved, and the exchanged MA + and I - ions serve as a bridge between PEDOT:PSS and the perovskite, leading to improved physical, chemical, and electrical properties of the buried interface. The Sn-Pb mixed perovskite solar cells using IE-PEDOT:PSS achieve an improved efficiency of 21.3% with an open-circuit voltage of 0.85 V and show better long-term stability. Additionally, IE-PEDOT:PSS works effectively in 2-terminal all-perovskite tandem devices, resulting in an improved efficiency of 23.5% and high reproducibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Imaging of Cobalt Phthalocyanine Distribution on Carbon Nanotubes: A Deep Learning Approach to Catalyst Characterization

Electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) offers a pathway to valuable products, with catalysts playing a crucial role. This study investigates the distribution of cobalt tetraaminophthalocyanine (CoPc-NH 2 ) immobilized on carbon nanotubes (CNTs), utilizing high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM) to characterize CoPc-NH 2 distribution. A challenge in the quantitative HAADF-STEM analysis is the introduction of bias from manual Co atom identification. To address this, we developed and trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) using a data set generated from images of CoPc-NH 2 /CNT samples with varying Co loadings. The CNN, implemented in TensorFlow and Keras, facilitated Co atom detections. Analysis of the CNN-generated data confirmed a correlation between Co loading and surface density, consistent with findings from UV–vis spectroscopy. Furthermore, the application of Ripley’s L(d) function highlighted the presence of slight Co atom clustering. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the utility of the combined HAADF-STEM and CNN approach for providing spatially resolved information about catalyst distribution on nonplanar supports, revealing structural details that are typically lost through other characterization methods.

HAADF-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of electron backscatter diffraction techniques to quantify effects of aging on sub-grain and spatial heterogeneity in NMC cathodes

Identification and evaluation of structural heterogeneity in spent cathode materials is crucial to developing appropriate remediation strategies for novel recycling processes. Native heterogeneities may be exacerbated during the cell's operational lifetime, as sub-particle-scale variations induce anisotropic expansion and contraction upon cycling. Structural transformations resulting from repeated cycling and calendar aging predominantly occur at the secondary particle surface and at the grain boundaries (GBs) between primary particles. However, the diffusion and stress build up around and across GBs are poorly understood. In this study, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is employed to track sub-grain lattice structure across a statistically relevant number of Li(Ni0.33Mn0.33Co0.33)O2 (NMC-111) particles. Specifically, differences in lattice misorientation – measured as the deviation from the grain's average orientation – are tracked as a function of position within the electrode (near current collector, middle, and near separator) and as a function of electrochemical cycling. Further, a novel method of structural analysis is developed, offering insight into sub-grain diffusion behavior by comparing lattice misorientation near the grain boundary versus in the grain bulk. The present results suggest that electrode-scale spatial heterogeneity in lattice structure is induced by initial manufacturing conditions, and that radial gradients in lattice misorientation evolve at the primary particle scale with repeated electrochemical cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The timbre of Hawking gravitons: an effective description of energy transport from holography

Planar black holes in AdS, which are holographically dual to compressible relativistic fluids, have a long-lived phonon mode that captures the physics of attenuated sound propagation and transports energy in the plasma. We describe the open effective field theory of this fluctuating phonon degree of freedom. The dynamics of the phonon is encoded in a single scalar field whose gravitational coupling has non-trivial spatial momentum dependence. This description fits neatly into the paradigm of classifying gravitational modes by their Markovianity index, depending on whether they are long-lived. The sound scalar is a non-Markovian field with index 3 - d for a d-dimensional fluid. We reproduce (and extend) the dispersion relation of the holographic sound mode to quartic order in derivatives, constructing in the process the effective field theory governing its attenuated dynamics and associated stochastic fluctuations. We also remark on the presence of additional spatially homogeneous zero modes in the gravitational problem, which remain disconnected from the phonon Goldstone mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

TRACER-BC2-SP2 Field Campaign Report

The focus of this project was to assess black carbon and brown carbon aerosol in Houston, Texas during the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) through the co-located deployment of a single-particle soot photometer (SP2) with the University of Houston/Baylor aerosol optical instrumentation in the Texas (BC)2 network in and around Houston. The deployment of the SP2 enables us to expand the spatial assessment of black carbon (BC) in Houston during TRACER by permitting a more thorough characterization of BC, including sources, transport, and potential processing. BC is well known to undergo physical and chemical changes during local and long-range transport that will impact its optical properties. By deploying multiple SP2s in the Houston area, the impacts of local and long-range transport can be assessed. The TRACER-BC2-SP2 campaign will expand spatial and temporal characterization of BC in the Houston area during TRACER and link the TRACER-carbon analysis to ongoing black and brown carbon monitoring (Texas [BC]2 network) in Houston.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗