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At least 739 records · Page 41

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗

Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds

The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods integrating innate and adaptive immune responses in human in vitro immunization assays

Rapid vaccine development and innovative immunotherapeutics are critical in the fight against emerging outbreaks and global pandemic threats, yet the high costs and prolonged timelines for developing new vaccines underscore the urgent need for robust, predictive pre-clinical testing platforms. The rapid down-selection of vaccine candidates and identification of optimal vaccine formulations can be performed using human in vitro immunization (IVI) assays that recapitulate the complex interactions of the innate and adaptive human immune response. In this review, we present a comprehensive evaluation of three key IVI platforms: the whole blood assay (WBA), monocyte-derived dendritic cell (MoDC) assay with dendritic cell-T cell interface assay (DTI), and the microphysiological human tissue construct assay (HTC). The WBA offers a cost-effective and straightforward approach, while the MoDC + DTI system represents the current gold standard for balancing experimental efficiency with immunological complexity. The HTC assay, by mimicking both spatial and temporal aspects of immune interactions, provides enhanced physiological relevance. We discuss the methodological advantages and limitations of each platform, explore their roles in rapid vaccine candidate screening, and propose strategies for integrating these assays with complementary in vivo models. These insights pave the way for refining IVI assays and accelerating the translational pipeline for next-generation vaccines and immunotherapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High- and Mid-Fidelity Modeling Comparison for a Floating Marine Turbine System: Preprint

There is a lack of suitable numerical tools, particularly open-source tools, that can be used for designing and optimizing marine turbine systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has added features to their widely used mid-fidelity wind turbine modeling code, OpenFAST, to enable modeling of axial flow marine turbines. This necessitated the addition of several physical effects relevant to marine turbines that can be neglected for wind turbines. These include buoyant loads, added mass and inertia loads, wave-current superposition, and changes to the coordinate systems. This updated version of OpenFAST allows for the modeling of both fixed and floating marine turbine systems at a speed comparable to real time. While efficient for long simulations, large sets of load cases, and design studies, mid-fidelity codes cannot capture all of the potentially important physical phenomenon impacting marine turbine systems. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can capture more flow effects with fewer assumptions and provide detailed body pressure mapping and flow-field information. It is important to compare predictions between mid-fidelity and high-fidelity codes, both to verify the models and to understand the limitations. A floating marine turbine system designed by NREL was modeled both with OpenFAST and with the commercial CFD code, STARCCM+. The CFD model used a 3-D unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver for a volume-of-fluid numerical wave and current tank. The blade-resolved simulations used the sliding-interface technique for the spinning rotor and an overset grid to accommodate the rigid-body motion of the floating system. The mooring system was modelled with a custom coupling of the CFD solver with the open-source code, MoorDyn. This improves upon the existing quasi-static catenary solver in STARCCM+, which lacks seabed contact or line-to-line connections. Spatial and temporal convergence studies were conducted. The simulation results for a combined current and wave condition are compared between OpenFAST and CFD, highlighting the capabilities of the mid-fidelity code and identifying the areas where a high-fidelity approach is needed.

CFD↗

CareWELL: Multimodal Region Representation Learning with Spatial Contexts for Urban Health

Rapid urbanization affects living environments by intensifying exposure to air pollution, heat, noise, and urban dynamics, which together contribute to uneven health outcomes across neighborhoods. For instance, cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health conditions are each influenced by distinct exposures such as air pollution, extreme temperatures, or limited access to green space. These heterogeneous patterns require understanding the characteristics of geographic regions in order to explain why urban health risks vary across urban areas. Recent work in self-supervised region representation learning provides a promising way to model such characteristics from multimodal geospatial data. However, existing methods face two major limitations: (i) they often depend on non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and applicability, and (ii) their generic pretraining objectives overlook health-relevant determinants, including temporal variability in environmental exposures and inequalities in social conditions. To address these gaps, we propose Context-Aware Region rEpresentation with Weather, Environment, and Location Learning (CareWELL). CareWELL leverages large language models to encode seasonal variability in weather, employs contrastive learning to align geo-coordinate and weather representations, and introduces a context-aware objective that integrates socio-demographic factors while preserving spatial correlations. We evaluate CareWELL by predicting six urban health outcomes in Manhattan, New York City, and demonstrate that CareWELL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines as well as a traditional spatial computing method. These results suggest the importance of context-aware pretraining objectives for learning health-relevant region representations.

Namgung, Min [ORNL]↗

Modeling and Characterizing the electron backscatter in a cylindrical anode-based distributed X-ray source

Upcoming advancements in computed tomography architectures warrants the investigation of new X-ray source designs and the impacts that electron backscatter can have on these designs. One such design being investigated is a distributed, cylindrical anode-based X-ray source. For such a distributed X-ray source, we developed a modeling pipeline for simulating electron optics and transport to characterize the quality of the primary X-ray beam and the electron backscatter behavior. We report our results on the energy distributions of the bremsstrahlung spectra; electron backscatter ratio; and spatial, temporal, and energy distributions of backscattered electrons that return to the anode.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Cross-Scale Land-Atmosphere Experiment (CSLAEX) (Final Report)

It is now well recognized that land-atmosphere interactions play an important role in both weather and climate. These interactions take place over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Most of the current formulations of the momentum, heat and moisture transport laws are informed by observations with a limited temporal or spatial scale, and hence may have limited applicability. The objective of this work is to improve the multi-scale representation of the near-surface heat transfer in the ground and in the atmosphere using a combination of modeling and field observations. Our knowledge and predictive capacity in land-atmosphere coupling is limited by our capacity to observe the full-scale spectrum at play. In order to bridge this fundamental gap in our observation capacity I will work to: create the first long-term Integrated Cross-Scale land-Atmosphere Experiment (CSLAEX) since I will work to: measure the components of the surface energy balance at a spatial scale relevant to remote sensing and meteorological applications (5km), along with observations of the nested subscale processes with Distributed Temperature Sensors (DTS). This proposal aims to fill the gaps in modeling and observing land-atmosphere interactions across scales via a novel Cross-Scale Land-Atmosphere Experiment (CSLAEX) to be implemented as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site near Lamont, Oklahoma. The proposed research effort aims at exploring land-atmosphere processes across multiple spatial scales and to investigate the effect of landscape heterogeneity using Distributed Temperature Sensor measurements. The novel instrumentation of the Surface Energy Balance and simultaneous observations of the atmospheric state (boundary layer, cloud, convection) available at the DOE ARM SGP site will be used to create CSLAEX. This dataset will be used to frame and evaluate new transport laws and parameterizations for the boundary layer and the land surface, which can be implemented into the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model and Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). The result of this study should impact multiple fields: meteorology, climate, and hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement report: Understanding the seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean aerosols

Abstract. The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic region have meant that observations in this region are rare, and typically restricted to summertime during research or resupply voyages. Observations of aerosols outside of the summer season are typically limited to long-term stations, such as Kennaook / Cape Grim (KCG; 40.7∘ S, 144.7∘ E), which is situated in the northern latitudes of the Southern Ocean, and Antarctic research stations, such as the Japanese operated Syowa (SYO; 69.0∘ S, 39.6∘ E). Measurements in the midlatitudes of the Southern Ocean are important, particularly in light of recent observations that highlighted the latitudinal gradient that exists across the region in summertime. Here we present 2 years (March 2016–March 2018) of observations from Macquarie Island (MQI; 54.5∘ S, 159.0∘ E) of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations. This important multi-year data set is characterised, and its features are compared with the long-term data sets from KCG and SYO together with those from recent, regionally relevant voyages. CN10 concentrations were the highest at KCG by a factor of ∼50 % across all non-winter seasons compared to the other two stations, which were similar (summer medians of 530, 426 and 468 cm−3 at KCG, MQI and SYO, respectively). In wintertime, seasonal minima at KCG and MQI were similar (142 and 152 cm−3, respectively), with SYO being distinctly lower (87 cm−3), likely the result of the reduction in sea spray aerosol generation due to the sea ice ocean cover around the site. CN10 seasonal maxima were observed at the stations at different times of year, with KCG and MQI exhibiting January maxima and SYO having a distinct February high. Comparison of CCN0.5 data between KCG and MQI showed similar overall trends with summertime maxima and wintertime minima; however, KCG exhibited slightly (∼10 %) higher concentrations in summer (medians of 158 and 145 cm−3, respectively), whereas KCG showed ∼40 % lower concentrations than MQI in winter (medians of 57 and 92 cm−3, respectively). Spatial and temporal trends in the data were analysed further by contrasting data to coincident observations that occurred aboard several voyages of the RSV Aurora Australis and the RV Investigator. Results from this study are important for validating and improving our models and highlight the heterogeneity of this pristine region and the need for further long-term observations that capture the seasonal cycles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A global database of dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration measurements in coastal waters (CoastDOM v1)

Abstract. Measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen (DON), and phosphorus (DOP) concentrations are used to characterize the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool and are important components of biogeochemical cycling in the coastal ocean. Here, we present the first edition of a global database (CoastDOM v1; available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.964012, Lønborg et al., 2023) compiling previously published and unpublished measurements of DOC, DON, and DOP in coastal waters. These data are complemented by hydrographic data such as temperature and salinity and, to the extent possible, other biogeochemical variables (e.g. chlorophyll a, inorganic nutrients) and the inorganic carbon system (e.g. dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity). Overall, CoastDOM v1 includes observations of concentrations from all continents. However, most data were collected in the Northern Hemisphere, with a clear gap in DOM measurements from the Southern Hemisphere. The data included were collected from 1978 to 2022 and consist of 62 338 data points for DOC, 20 356 for DON, and 13 533 for DOP. The number of measurements decreases progressively in the sequence DOC > DON > DOP, reflecting both differences in the maturity of the analytical methods and the greater focus on carbon cycling by the aquatic science community. The global database shows that the average DOC concentration in coastal waters (average ± standard deviation (SD): 182±314 µmol C L−1; median: 103 µmol C L−1) is 13-fold higher than the average coastal DON concentration (13.6±30.4 µmol N L−1; median: 8.0 µmol N L−1), which is itself 39-fold higher than the average coastal DOP concentration (0.34±1.11 µmol P L−1; median: 0.18 µmol P L−1). This dataset will be useful for identifying global spatial and temporal patterns in DOM and will help facilitate the reuse of DOC, DON, and DOP data in studies aimed at better characterizing local biogeochemical processes; closing nutrient budgets; estimating carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous pools; and establishing a baseline for modelling future changes in coastal waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification and correction of temporal and spatial distortions in scanning transmission electron microscopy

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has become the technique of choice for quantitative characterization of atomic structure of materials, where the minute displacements of atomic columns from high-symmetry positions can be used to map strain, polarization, octahedra tilts, and other physical and chemical order parameter fields. The latter can be used as inputs into mesoscopic and atomistic models, providing insight into the correlative relationships and generative physics of materials on the atomic level. However, these quantitative applications of STEM necessitate understanding the microscope induced image distortions and developing the pathways to compensate them both as part of a rapid calibration procedure for in situ imaging, and the post-experimental data analysis stage. Here, we explore the spatiotemporal structure of the microscopic distortions in STEM using multivariate analysis of the atomic trajectories in the image stacks. Based on the behavior of principal component analysis (PCA), we develop the Gaussian process (GP)-based regression method for quantification of the distortion function. The limitations of such an approach and possible strategies for implementation as a part of in-line data acquisition in STEM are discussed. Here, the analysis workflow is summarized in a Jupyter notebook that can be used to retrace the analysis and analyze the reader's data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal and spatial laser intensification within nodular defects overcoated with multilayer dielectric mirrors over a wide range of defect geometries

The nodular defect shape and the laser incidence angle have a dramatic impact on the spatial distribution of light intensification within the nodule as well as how the laser light is drained from the defect. Nodular defect geometries unique to ion beam sputtering, ion-assisted deposition, and electron-beam (e-beam) deposition, respectively, are modeled in this parametric study over a wide range of nodular inclusion diameters and layer count for optical interference mirror coatings constructed with quarter-wave thicknesses and capped with a half wave of the low index material. It was found for hafnia ($n$=1.9) and silica ($n$=1.45) multilayer mirrors that the light intensification in nodular defects with a $C$ factor of 8, typical of e-beam deposited coatings deposited with a wide range of deposition angles, was maximized for a 24-layer design. For intermediate size inclusion diameters, increasing the layer count for normal incidence multilayer mirrors reduced the light intensification within the nodular defect. A second parametric study explored the impact of the nodule shape on the light intensification for a fixed number of layers. In this case, there is a strong temporal trend for the different nodule shapes. Narrow nodules tend to drain more laser energy through the bottom of the nodule into the substrate while wide nodules tend to drain more laser energy through the top of the nodule when irradiated at normal incidence. Further, at a 45° incidence angle, waveguiding is an additional method to drain laser energy from the nodular defect. Finally, laser light resonates within nodular defects longer than within the adjacent nondefective multilayer structure.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States

Recent studies predict significant decreases in the future levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy, much of which is attributed to anticipated cost reductions from technological innovation. This study evaluates the spatial variability of LCOE caused by technology-induced decreases in a range of capital, operational, and financial cost categories. A spatial cost model of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind plants is used to model the impact across thousands of potential United States sites. A specified change in an individual turbine subsystem cost produces a range of LCOE outcomes due to the varying geospatial characteristics of the considered sites and the nonlinear, interactive dependency on these input parameters; for example, a 10.8% improvement in net capacity factor can reduce LCOE by between 6% and 20% at different sites. This work expands upon the existing offshore wind literature, which typically evaluates cost sensitivities at a single site and does not consider the spatial variance in LCOE. The results suggest that the impact of technological innovations can be considerable and should be considered on a spatial as well as temporal basis when prioritizing technology innovation research or funding decisions to advance offshore wind technologies in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multiscale investigation of thermomechanical and compositional developments in Ni alloy 718 under laser processing

Laser processing has been widely employed in various applications due to its exceptional spatial resolution. However, the rapid temperature gradients generated in localized areas present significant challenges for experimental characterization using conventional instruments. To characterize Ni alloy 718 during laser processing, we employed in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction with a high-speed detector, a method particularly well-suited for probing processes with high temporal and spatial resolution. Through a series of in-situ experiments, we investigated the local variations in the evolution of microstructures and thermomechanical behaviors within a keyhole mode melt pool. The in situ macroscopic thermomechanical behaviors were quantified using an empirical model derived from diffraction patterns, with experimental results showing reasonable agreement with finite element analysis. Various laser parameters were tested to assess their influences on the residual strains in the melt pools. The results revealed that the residual strain in the keyhole mode melt pool is relatively insensitive to variations in the parameters and is smaller than that in the melt pool created under conduction mode laser scanning. Additionally, we analyzed the shapes of individual diffraction spots, providing insights into the plastic behaviors and compositional developments in the resolidified alloy. The analysis confirmed that compositional variations in a dendritic microstructure manifest as asymmetric broadening of the diffraction spots.

Ni alloy 718↗

GrainNN: A neighbor-aware long short-term memory network for predicting microstructure evolution during polycrystalline grain formation

High fidelity simulations of grain formation in alloys are an indispensable tool for process-to-mechanical-properties characterization. Such simulations, however, can be computationally expensive as they require fine spatial and temporal discretizations. Their cost becomes an obstacle to parametric studies and ensemble runs and ultimately makes downstream tasks like optimal control and uncertainty quantification challenging. To enable such downstream tasks, we introduce GrainNN, an efficient and accurate reduced-order model for epitaxial grain growth in additive manufacturing conditions. GrainNN is a sequence-to-sequence long-short-term-memory (LSTM) deep neural network that evolves the dynamics of manually crafted features. Its innovations are (1) an attention mechanism with grain-microstructure-specific transformer architecture; and (2) an overlapping combination of several clones of the network to generalize to grain configurations that are different from those used for training. This design enables GrainNN to predict grain formation for unseen physical parameters, grain number, domain size and geometry. Furthermore, GrainNN not only reconstructs the quantities of interest but also can be pointwise accurate. In our numerical experiments, we use a polycrystalline phase field method to both generate the training data and assess GrainNN. For multiparametric, ensemble simulations with many grains, GrainNN can be orders of magnitude faster than phase field simulations, while delivering 5%–15% pointwise error. Additionally, this speedup includes the cost of the phase field simulations for generating training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reconciliation of asynchronous satellite-based $\mathrm{NO_2}$ and $\mathrm{XCO_2}$ enhancements with mesoscale modeling over two urban landscapes

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ), the main driver of global warming and climate change, is often co-emitted with nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and precursors to ground-level ozone from anthropogenic sources like power plants or vehicles. In urban and suburban areas, satellite-based NO 2 can be used as a proxy to track the emissions of CO 2ff . Because of NO 2 ’s shorter lifetime, urban NO 2 plumes are more distinguishable from backgrounds and more sensitive to variations in emissions. However, the combination of these two gases is limited by the asynchrony among NO 2 and CO 2 monitoring satellites. We used CO 2ff simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to reconcile the tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide enhancements (ΔXCO 2 ) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Maps (SAMs) over a multicity area, Washington D.C.-Baltimore (DC-Balt), and a basin city, Mexico City. NO 2 /CO 2ff ratios over DC-Balt are smaller than Mexico City, indicative of stricter emission restrictions, a more combustion-efficient vehicle fleet, and higher combustion efficiency due to lower altitude in DC-Balt. For single-track cases, the spatial correlations between NO 2 and ΔXCO 2 over Mexico City are stronger than DC-Balt because the NO 2 and CO 2 are mostly trapped in the valley of Mexico City, while DC-Balt is severely affected by distant sources (i.e., US East Coast cities). Using multi-track averaging, spatial correlation coefficients increase with the number of days used for averaging. The correlations reached a maximum when averaging >12 continuous images for DC-Balt and > 10 continuous images for Mexico City. This finding indicates that multi-track averaging using modeled CO 2ff as a proxy is helpful to filter the noise in single-track images, to cancel the interference from distant sources, and to magnify correlations between NO 2 and CO 2ff . Mexico City showed stronger spatial correlations but weaker temporal correlations than DC-Balt due to biomass burning hot spots and large transport errors caused by the trapping effects of the surrounding mountains. Tracking the 20-day moving average of CO 2ff emissions using TROPOMI NO 2 seems technically feasible, considering the relationship between correlation coefficients and the number of available satellite images.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States

Lake and reservoir surface areas are an important proxy for freshwater availability. Advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques and increased accessibility of remote sensing data products have enabled the analysis of waterbody surface area dynamics on broad spatial scales. However, interpreting the ML results remains a challenge. While ML provides important tools for identifying patterns, the resultant models do not include mechanisms. Thus, the “black-box” nature of ML techniques often lacks ecological meaning. Using ML, we characterized temporal patterns in lake and reservoir surface area change from 1984 to 2016 for 103,930 waterbodies in the contiguous United States. We then employed knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) to classify all waterbodies into seven ecologically interpretable groups representing distinct patterns of surface area change over time. Many waterbodies were classified as having “no change” (43%), whereas the remaining 57% of waterbodies fell into other groups representing both linear and nonlinear patterns. This analysis demonstrates the potential of KGML not only for identifying ecologically relevant patterns of change across time but also for unraveling complex processes that underpin those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fracture Characterization Via AI‐Assisted Analysis of Temperature Logs

Abstract Fractures control fluid flow, mass transport, and heat transfer in a geothermal reservoir. This makes accurate characterization of fracture networks a prerequisite for optimal design and control of a reservoir's exploitation. We develop a deep‐learning procedure to identify fracture locations via interpretation of temporally and spatially continuous downhole temperature measurements. A long short‐term memory fully convolutional network (LSTM‐FCN) is used both to capture long‐term dependencies in sequential temperature data and to distill local features around fractures. A wellbore and fractured‐reservoir thermal model is established to generate temperature data for network training. The trained LSTM‐FCN exhibits a unique ability to detect multiple fractures intersecting a borehole. We use the LSTM‐FCN algorithm to evaluate the effectiveness of different‐stage wellbore temperature measurements on fracture detection in a complex fractured system. Our experiments reveal that the use of various‐stage temperature information as an input feature set improves the robustness of fracture detection to noise interference. This study indicates the practical feasibility of obtaining accurate fracture‐network reconstructions from temperature signals, at reasonable computational cost.

Yang, Xiaoyu↗