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Assessing Bare-Ice Albedo Simulated By MAR Over the Greenland Ice Sheet (2000–2021) and Implications for Meltwater Production Estimates

Surface mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has accelerated over the past decades, mainly due to enhanced surface melting and liquid water runoff in response to atmospheric warming. A large portion of runoff from the GrIS originates from exposure of the darker bare ice in the ablation zone when the overlying snow melts, where surface albedo plays a critical role in modulating the energy available for melting. In this regard, it is imperative to understand the processes governing albedo variability to accurately project future mass loss from the GrIS. Bare-ice albedo is spatially and temporally variable and contingent on non-linear feedbacks and the presence of light-absorbing constituents. An assessment of models aiming at simulating albedo variability and associated impacts on meltwater production is crucial for improving our understanding of the processes governing these feedbacks and, in turn, surface mass loss from Greenland. Here, we report the results of a comparison of the bare-ice extent and albedo simulated by the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the GrIS below 70∘ N. Our findings suggest that MAR overestimates bare-ice albedo by 22.8 % on average in this area during the 2000–2021 period with respect to the estimates obtained from MODIS. Using an energy balance model to parameterize meltwater production, we find this bare-ice albedo bias can lead to an underestimation of total meltwater production from the bare-ice zone below 70∘ N of 42.8 % during the summers of 2000–2021.

albedo↗

Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer

MISR views the sunlit Earth simultaneously at nine widely spaced angles and provides ongoing global coverage with high spatial detail. Its imagery is carefully calibrated to provide accurate measures of the brightness, contrast, and color of reflected sunlight. MISR provides new types of information for scientists studying Earth's climate, such as the regional and global distribution of different types of atmospheric particles and aerosols. The change in reflection at different view angles provides the means to distinguish aerosol types, cloud forms, and land surface cover. Combined with stereoscopic techniques, this enables construction of 3-D cloud models and estimation of the total amount of sunlight reflected by Earth's diverse environments. MISR was built for NASA by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. It is part of NASA's first Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft, the Terra spacecraft, which was launched into polar orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base on December 18, 1999. MISR has been continuously providing data since February 24, 2000. [Mission Objectives] The MISR instrument acquires systematic multi-angle measurements for global monitoring of top-of-atmosphere and surface albedos and for measuring the shortwave radiative properties of aerosols, clouds, and surface scenes in order to characterize their impact on the Earth's climate. The Earth's climate is constantly changing -- as a consequence of both natural processes and human activities. Scientists care a great deal about even small changes in Earth's climate, since they can affect our comfort and well-being, and possibly our survival. A few years of below-average rainfall, an unusually cold winter, or a change in emissions from a coal-burning power plant, can influence the quality of life of people, plants, and animals in the region involved. The goal of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is to increase our understanding of the climate changes that are occurring on our planet, and the reasons for these changes, so we are better equipped to anticipate and prepare for the future. The MISR instrument is a part of EOS. Its role is to measure the amount of sunlight scattered in different directions under natural conditions. These measurements will help quantify the amount of solar energy that heats the Earth's surface and atmosphere, and the changes that occur in them over the lifetime of the MISR instrument. From the MISR observations, we are also learning more about those components of the Earth's environment that scatter sunlight: particles in the atmosphere, the planet's surface, and clouds. MISR monitors changes in surface reflection properties, in atmospheric aerosol content and composition, and in cloudiness. Scientists use these data to study land use changes, air pollution, volcanic eruptions, as well as processes such as desertification, deforestation, and soil erosion. As part of the EOS program, computer models that predict future climate will be improved by the results of these studies. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Diner, David J.↗

Simulation of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies in Atlanta, GA Using High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data Set to Enhance Meteorological Modeling

The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) and associated land surface parameters in meteorological models at all scales has a major influence on modeled surface energy fluxes and boundary layer states. In urban areas, accurate representation of the land surface may be even more important than in undeveloped regions due to the large heterogeneity within the urban area. Deficiencies in the characterization of the land surface related to the spatial or temporal resolution of the data, the number of LULC classes defined, the accuracy with which they are defined, or the degree of heterogeneity of the land surface properties within each class may degrade the performance of the models. In this study, an experiment was conducted to test a new high-resolution LULC data set for meteorological simulations for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area using a mesoscale meteorological model and to evaluate the effects of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies on modeled meteorology for 2030. Simulation results showed that use of the new LULC data set reduced a major deficiency of the land use data used previously, specifically the poor representation of urban and suburban land use. Performance of the meteorological model improved substantially, with the overall daytime cold bias reduced by over 30%. UHI mitigation strategies were projected to offset much of a predicted urban warming between 2000 and 2030. In fact, for the urban core, the cooling due to UHI mitigation strategies was slightly greater than the warming associated with urbanization over this period. For the larger metropolitan area, cooling only partially offset the projected warming trend.

Crosson, William L.↗

Prominence Mass Supply and the Cavity

A prevalent but untested paradigm is often used to describe the prominence-cavity system; the cavity is under-dense because it it evacuated by supplying mass to the condensed prominence. The thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) model of prominence formation offers a theoretical framework to predict the thermodynamic evolutin of the prominence and the surrounding corona. We examine the evidence for a prominence-cavity connection by comparing the TNE model and diagnostics of dynamic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission surrounding the prominence, specifically prominence horns. Horns are correlated extensions of prminence plasma and coronal plasma which appear to connect the prominence and cavity. The TNE model predicts that large-scale brightenings will occur in the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 171 A badpass near he prominence that are associated with the cooling phase of condensation formation. In our simulations, variations in the magnitude of footpoint heating lead to variations in the duration, spatial scale, and temporal offset between emission enhancements in the other EUV bandpasses. While these predictions match well a subset of the horn observations, the range of variations in the observed structures is not captured by the model. We discuss the implications of one-dimensional loop simulations for the three-dimensional time-averaged equilibrium in the prominence and the cavity. Evidence suggests that horns are likely caused by condensing prominence plasma, but the larger question of whether this process produces a density-depleted cavity requires a more tightly constrained model of heating and better knowledge of the associated magnetic structure.

PROMINENCES↗

Autoregressive modeling for the spectral analysis of oceanographic data

Over the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the number and volume of data sets useful for oceanographic studies. Many of these data sets consist of long temporal or spatial series derived from satellites and large-scale oceanographic experiments. These data sets are, however, often 'gappy' in space, irregular in time, and always of finite length. The conventional Fourier transform (FT) approach to the spectral analysis is thus often inapplicable, or where applicable, it provides questionable results. Here, through comparative analysis with the FT for different oceanographic data sets, the possibilities offered by autoregressive (AR) modeling to perform spectral analysis of gappy, finite-length series, are discussed. The applications demonstrate that as the length of the time series becomes shorter, the resolving power of the AR approach as compared with that of the FT improves. For the longest data sets examined here, 98 points, the AR method performed only slightly better than the FT, but for the very short ones, 17 points, the AR method showed a dramatic improvement over the FT. The application of the AR method to a gappy time series, although a secondary concern of this manuscript, further underlines the value of this approach.

Gangopadhyay, Avijit↗

Ignition Transients of Large Segmented Solid Rocket Boosters

A model is described which provides a means for analyzing the complexities of ignition transients and pressure peaks of large, high performance, segmented solid rocket boosters. The method accounts for: (1) temporal and spatial development of the flow field set up by the head end igniter discharge, (2) ignition and flame spreading coupled to chamber flow, (3) the steep velocity, pressure, and temperature gradients that occur during the early phases of ignition, and (4) the interactions that produce ignition spikes (i.e., compression of chamber gases during pressurization, erosive burning, and mass added effect of igniter discharge). The technique differs from earlier models in that the flow interactions between the slots and main chamber are accounted for, and the original computer program for monolithic motors is improved. The procedures were used to predict the ignition transients of the current design for the space shuttle booster.

Caveny, L. H.↗

Spatially Complete Global Spectral Surface Albedos: Value-Added Datasets Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Land surface albedo is an important parameter in describing the radiative properties of the earth s surface as it represents the amount of incoming solar radiation that is reflected from the surface. The amount and type of vegetation of the surface dramatically alters the amount of radiation that is reflected; for example, croplands that contain leafy vegetation will reflect radiation very differently than blacktop associated with urban areas. In addition, since vegetation goes through a growth, or phenological, cycle, the amount of radiation that is reflected changes over the course of a year. As a result, albedo is both temporally and spatially dependant upon global location as there is a distribution of vegetated surface types and growing conditions. Land surface albedo is critical for a wide variety of earth system research projects including but not restricted to remote sensing of atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties from space, ground-based analysis of aerosol optical properties from surface-based sun/sky radiometers, biophysically-based land surface modeling of the exchange of energy, water, momentum, and carbon for various land use categories, and surface energy balance studies. These projects require proper representation of the surface albedo s spatial, spectral, and temporal variations, however, these representations are often lacking in datasets prior to the latest generation of land surface albedo products.

Moody, Eric G.↗

Seasonal Change on Saturn from Cassini/CIRS Observations, 2004-2009

Five years of thermal infrared spectra from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are analyzed to determine the response of Saturn's atmosphere to seasonal changes in insolation. Hemispheric mapping sequences at 15.0 cm-1 spectral resolution are used to retrieve the variation in the zonal mean temperatures in the stratosphere (0.5-5.0 mbar) and upper troposphere (75-800 mbar) between October 2004 (shortly after the summer solstice in the southern hemisphere) and July 2009 (shortly before the autumnal equinox). Saturn's northern mid-latitudes show signs of dramatic warming in the stratosphere (by 6-10 K) as they emerge from ring-shadow into springtime conditions, whereas southern mid-latitudes show evidence for cooling (4-6 K). The 40-K asymmetry in stratospheric temperatures between northern and southern hemispheres (at 1 mbar) slowly decreased during the timespan of the observations. Tropospheric temperatures also show temporal variations but with a smaller range, consistent with the increasing radiative time constant of the atmospheric response with increasing pressure. The tropospheric response to the insolation changes shows the largest magnitude at the locations of the broad retrograde jets. Saturn's warm south-polar stratospheric hood has cooled over the course of the mission, but remains present. Stratospheric temperatures are compared to a radiative climate model which accounts for the spatial distribution of the stratospheric coolants. The model successfully predicts the magnitude and morphology of the observed changes at most latitudes. However, the model fails at locations where strong dynamical perturbations dominate the temporal changes in the thermal field, such as the hot polar vortices and the equatorial semi-annual oscillation (Orton, G., and 27 colleagues [2008]. Nature 453, 196-198). Furthermore, observed temperatures in Saturn's ring-shadowed regions are larger than predicted by all radiative-climate models to date due to the incomplete characterization of the dynamical response to the shadow. Finally, far-infrared CIRS spectra are used to demonstrate variability of the para-hydrogen distribution over the 5-year span of the dataset, which may be related to observed changes in Saturn's tropospheric haze in the spring hemisphere.

Fletcher, Leigh N.↗

Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Biomass burning; Satellite observations; computer ↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗

Energetic Neutral Atom Imaging with the POLAR CEPPAD/ IPS Instrument : Initial Forward Modeling Results

Although the primary function of the CEPPAD/IPS instrument on Polar is the measurement of energetic ions in-situ, it has also proven to be a very capable Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imager. Raw ENA images are currently being constructed on a routine basis with a temporal resolution of minutes during both active and quiet times. However, while analyses of these images by themselves provide much information on the spatial distribution and dynamics of the energetic ion population in the ring current. detailed modeling is required to extract the actual ion distributions. In this paper. we present the initial results of forward modeling an IPS ENA image obtained during a small geo-magnetic storm on June 9, 1997. The equatorial ion distribution inferred with this technique reproduces the expected large noon/midnight and dawn/dusk asymmetries. The limitations of the model are discussed and a number of modifications to the basic forward modeling technique are proposed which should significantly improve its performance in future studies.

Henderson, M. G.↗

The spatial structure of a solar flare in soft X-rays and centimetric wavelengths

High-resolution images of the decay phase of a soft X-ray flare observed by the S-054 experiment on Skylab are compared with interferometric scans of the radio burst obtained simultaneously at 2.8 cm. The spatial resolution of the radio instrument in one direction, although lower than the X-ray telescope resolution, is high enough for a detailed comparison. The comparison clarifies the relationship between the sources of soft X-ray and thermal radio emission in solar flares. The X-ray emission is localized in a looplike structure which appears spatially coincident with the rapidly varying component of the radio burst. The more stable components of the radio source, which do not appear to contribute substantially to X-ray emission, are found to be spatially associated with the extremes of the X-ray loop. A model of plasma-filled loops is suggested which accounts for the emissions in both spectral ranges and for their spatial location and temporal development.

Pallavicini, R.↗

Satellite data for diagnostics and for validation of model simulations

Two issues in the treatment of tropical convection in general circulation models are examined. First, several studies have found significant gradients in clear sky longwave fluxes near large convective systems. Increased upper tropospheric moisture associated with deep convection may explain the reduction in the longwave emission. Similar local gradients are not apparent in measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), an important data set for model validation. Thus the average cloud forcing and greenhouse effect derived from models and observations may differ systematically over warm tropical oceans. A comparison of ERBE fluxes with radiative calculations using coincident balloon-sonde atmospheric profiles indicates negligible systematic bias in the observations. The effect of convection on the clear sky fluxes may be localized to the edges of individual cloud systems. Second, the balance between shortwave and cloud forcing and longwave forcing is a persistent feature of tropical cloud systems in ERBE data. This cancellation effect has been used to diagnose problems in GCM (General Circulation Model) cloud fields on seasonal time scales. The daily record of net cloud radiative forcing is analyzed to determine the smallest spatial and temporal scales for the balance. The results show cancellation on periods as short as three days for regions smaller than 2.5 by 2.5 deg. The analysis indicates that the balance is primarily a local phenomenon characteristic of tropical convection. This is consistent with findings that the small cloud radiative forcing is due primarily to thick tropical cirrus. These results represent a particularly stringent test of convective parameterizations in GCM's with interactive ocean surfaces.

Collins, W. D.↗

Atmospheric and wind modeling for ATC

The section on atmospheric modeling covers the following topics: the standard atmosphere, atmospheric variations, atmosphere requirements for ATC, and implementation of a software model for Center/Tracon Advisory System (CTAS). The section on wind modeling covers the following topics: wind data -- NOAA profiler system; wind profile estimation; incorporation of various data types into filtering scheme; spatial and temporal variation; and software implementation into CTAS. The appendices contain Matlab codes for atmospheric routines and for wind estimation.

Slater, Gary L.↗

Stratospheric Impact of 1D-Variation Assimilation of TOVS/ATOVS Data

This paper will present an assessment of the impact to the stratospheric circulation of the DAO-GEOS2 (Data Assimilation Office -Goddard Earth Observing System) attributable to an improved 1D-Variational retrieval of heights. The assimilated heights are retrieved from both the TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) and the ATOVS (Advanced TOVS) sounders. Each sounder's sensitivity to temperature changes in the stratosphere will be addressed and its relationship to the model's background flow evaluated. Also detailed are the steps to ensure the quality of the data being assimilated. Finally the temporal and spatial scales, important to the stratospheric mean flow, will be evaluated in terms of the DAO-GEOS2 response to the assimilated heights.

Rokke, Laurie↗

Mars Climate Orbiter's Investigation of the Atmosphere and Polar Caps

The Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO) is now on its way to Mars. It carries an atmospheric sounder whose observations will provide a continuous, global data set on weather and climate for a full Martian year. This paper describes the observation strategy and anticipated results from the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). PMIRR will measure vertical profiles of atmospheric infrared radiance in the 7 to 50 micron wavelength region extending from the surface of Mars to 80-km altitude. The observations have a vertical resolution of 5 km, or one-half the atmospheric scale height. From these radiance profiles we will retrieve profiles of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and the amounts of dust, condensates and water vapor. In addition, PMIRR will measure the radiative balance of the polar regions of Mars in an effort to better understand the short-term climate variability of the planet. The information obtained with PMIRR on MCO will be complementary to data obtained by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Radio Science (RS) experiments on the Mars Global Surveyor. A major emphasis of our research will be the assimilation of PMIRR data into numerical models of the Martian atmosphere. Assimilation schemes, of which several are currently in development, will permit the extension of measurements to spatial and temporal scales and to phenomena (e.g. winds) not observed directly by PMIRR.

McCleese, D. J.↗

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗