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At least 739 records · Page 41

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Attempt at dust debris collection with stacked detectors (A0138-2)

The primary objective of this experiment is to investigate the feasibility of future missions of multilayer thin-film detectors acting as energy sorter to collect micrometeoroids, if not in their original shape, at least as fragments suitable for chemical analysis. It is expected that this kind of particle collector will help in solving one of the most puzzling topics in cosmic-dust studies: the mineralogical and chemical composition of the particles. This is a matter of great interest in the study of the origin and evolution of the solar system.

Mandeville, J. C.↗

Radiation-Induced Backgrounds in Astronomical Instruments: Considerations for Geosynchronous Orbit and Implications for the Design of the WFIRST Wide-Field Instrument

Geosynchronous orbits are appealing for solar or astrophysical observatories because they permit continuous data downlink at high rates. The radiation environment in these orbits presents unique challenges, however. This paper describes both the characteristics of the radiation environment in geosynchronous orbit and the mechanisms by which this radiation generates backgrounds in photon detectors. Shielding considerations are described, and a preliminary shielding design for the proposed Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope observatory is presented as a reference for future space telescope concept studies that consider a geosynchronous orbit.

Kruk, Jeffrey W.↗

Planetary Protection Technologies for Planetary Science Instruments, Spacecraft, and Missions: Report of the NASA Planetary Protection Technology Definition Team (PPTDT)

Planetary bodies like Mars, Europa, and Enceladus pose the question, "How to study them without contaminating them and destroying future prospects to detect life, if it is there?" The natural trade-off, of course, is that the cleaner your spacecraft, the more you can explore such a body without risk of contaminating it. As chartered by NASA Headquarters, the Planetary Protection Technology Definition Team (PPTDT) was asked to provide a report covering six different areas related to the engineering and technology challenges of implementing planetary protection requirements on solar system exploration missions, including: Assessment of technical and engineering challenges to applying available microbial-reduction methods, including recontamination prevention, to spacecraft hardware and instruments, to meet current NASA requirements on preventing the forward contamination of potentially habitable worlds by future spacecraft missions (orbiters, atmospheric missions, landers, penetrators, and drills); Identification of spacecraft and instrument materials known to be compatible with existing planetary protection protocols; Planetary protection protocols/processes available or which appear promising, and areas ripe for technological development; The technical and engineering challenges in ensuring that spacecraft hardware and instruments can meet organic cleanliness requirements needed to ensure high confidence in differentiating Earth contamination from extraterrestrial signals to avoid false negative as well as false positive results; Approaches for mitigating the identified challenges that would allow instruments to be flown successfully at the required levels of cleanliness and microbial reduction, beginning with identification of commonly used materials and spacecraft hardware that are compatible (or particularly vulnerable) to planetary protection protocols; Engineering, technology, and scientific research and development that could be funded by NASA to provide future capabilities to field scientific instruments and spacecraft on missions that require either subsystem or system-level microbial reduction and recontamination prevention.

John D. Rummel↗

Applicability and Utility of the Astromaterials X-Ray Computed Tomography Laboratory at Johnson Space Center

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA’s Johnson Space Center is responsible for curating all of NASA’s astromaterial sample collections (i.e. Apollo samples, Luna Samples, Antarctic Meteorites, Cosmic Dust Particles, Microparticle Impact Collection, Genesis solar wind atoms, Stardust comet Wild-2 particles, Stardust interstellar particles, and Hayabusa asteroid Itokawa particles) [1-3]. To assist in sample curation and distribution, JSC Curation has recently installed an X-ray computed tomography (XCT) scanner to visualize and characterize samples in 3D. [3] describes the instrumental set-up and the utility of XCT to astromaterials curation. Here we describe some of the current and future projects and illustrate the usefulness of XCT in studying astromaterials.

Eckley, S. A.↗

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Detectability of neutrino-signal fluctuations induced by the hadron-quark phase transition in failing core-collapse supernovae

Here we introduce a systematic and quantitative methodology for establishing the presence of neutrino oscillatory signals due to the hadron-quark phase transition (PT) in failing core-collapse supernovae from the observed neutrino event rate in water- or ice-based neutrino detectors. The methodology uses a likelihood ratio in the frequency domain as a test-statistic; it is employed for quantitative analysis of neutrino signals without assuming the frequency, amplitude, starting time, and duration of the PT-induced oscillations present in the neutrino events and thus it is suitable for analyzing neutrino signals from a wide variety of numerical simulations. We test the validity of this method by using a core-collapse simulation of a 17 solar-mass star by Zha et al. [Astrophys. J. 911, 74 (2021) ]. Based on this model, we further report the presence of a PT-induced oscillations quantitatively for a core-collapse supernovae out to a distance of ~10 kpc, ~5 kpc for IceCube and to a distance of ~10 kpc, ~5 kpc, and ~1 kpc for a 0.4 Mt mass water Cherenkov detector. This methodology will aid the investigation of a future galactic supernova and the study of hadron-quark phase in the core of core-collapse supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Ecological applications of high resolution spectrometry

Future directions of NASA's space program plans include a significant effort at studying the Earth as a system of interrelated ecosystems. As part of NASA's Earth Observing System (Eos) Program a series of space platforms will be launched and operated to study the Earth with a variety of active and passive instruments. Several of the Eos instruments will be capable of imaging the planet's surface reflectance on a large number of very narrow portions of the solar spectrum. After the development of appropriate algorithms, this reflectance information will be used to determine key parameters about the structure and function of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the pattern and processes of those systems across large areas of the globe. Algorithm development applicable to terrestrial systems will permit the inference of ecological processes from high resolution spectrometry data, similar to that to be forthcoming from the Eos mission. The first summer was spent working with tropical soils and relating their reflectance characteristics to particle size, iron content, and color. This summer the emphasis is on vegetation and work was begun with the Forest Ecosystems Dynamics Project in the Earth Resources Branch where both optical and radar characteristics of a mixed conifer/hardwood forest in Maine are being studied for use in a ecological modeling effort. A major series of aircraft overflights will take place throughout the summer. Laboratory and field spectrometers are used to measure the spectral reflectance of a hierarchy of vegetation from individual leaves to whole canopies for eventual modeling of their nutrient content using reflectance data. Key leaf/canopy parameters are being approximated including chlorophyll, nitrogen, phosphorus, water content, and leaf specific weight using high resolution spectrometry alone. Measurements are made of carbon exchange across the landscape for input to a spatial modeling effort to gauge production within the forest. A Geographic Information System approach is used to associate these data, images, and other collateral information for the forest into a database with a common projection suitable for spatial modeling.

Lawrence, William T.↗

X-ray Observations of the Supernova Remnants G349.7+0.2 and CTA 1

This compact, high luminosity SNR is known to be interacting with a molecular cloud, based on the observation of OH masers. The maser lines provide velocity measurements which place the remnant at a distance of 22 kpc. The analysis of our ASCA data is now complete. We find that the X-ray emission from this remnant is dominated by material of solar abundances, consistent with the picture of a molecular cloud interaction. At the very large distance indicated by the masers, the observed flux makes G349.7+0.2 one of the most luminous SNRs in our galaxy. We show that the X-ray emitting plasma is not in ionization equilibrium, and that while the remnant has swept up large amounts of material, it is actually relatively young, holding some promise for identification of stellar ejecta in future high resolution studies. A paper detailing our analysis and results has been completed and is in the final stages of circulation amongst co-authors prior to submission to ApJ.

Slane, Patrick O.↗

Models of Isotopic Fractionation in Prestellar Cores

Anomalously fractionated isotopic material is found in many primitive Solar System objects, such as meteorites and comets. It is thought, in some cases, to trace interstellar matter that was incorporated into the Solar Nebula without undergoing significant processing. We will present the results of models of the nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon fractionation chemistry in dense molecular clouds, particularly in cores where substantial freeze-out of molecules on to dust has occurred. The range of fractionation ratios expected in different interstellar molecules will be discussed and compared to the ratios measured in molecular clouds, comets and meteoritic material. These studies make several predictions that can be tested in the near future by high-resolution molecular line observations with ALMA.

Charnley, Steven B.↗

Models of Isotopic Fractionation in Prestellar Cores

Anomalously fractionated isotopic material is found in many primitive Solar System objects, such as meteorites and comets. It is thought, in some cases, to trace interstellar matter that was incorporated into the Solar Nebula without undergoing significant processing. We will present the results of models of the nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon fractionation chemistry in dense molecular clouds, particularly in cores where substantial freeze-out of molecules on to dust has occurred. The range of fractionation ratios expected in different interstellar molecules will be discussed and compared to the ratios measured in molecular clouds, comets and meteoritic material. These studies make several predictions that can be tested in the near future by high-resolution molecular line observations with ALMA.

Charnley, Steven B.↗

Precursor Asteroid Missions and Synergies to Human Exploration of Phobos and Deimos

U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025 and then on to the Martian system in the 2030s. Given this direction from the White House, NASA has been involved in studying various strategies for near-Earth object (NEO) exploration in order to follow U.S. space exploration policy. These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and its moons, as well as other Solar System destinations. Robotic precursor missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, which may play a vital role in leveraging potential resources from the Martian moons that in turn could enable robotic and human exploration of Mars.

Abell, Paul↗

Using Gravity Assists in the Earth-moon System as a Gateway to the Solar System

For spacecraft departing the Earth - Moon system, lunar flybys can significantly increase the hype rbolic escape energy (C3, in km 2 /sec 2 ) for a modest increase in flight time. Within ~2 months, lunar flybys can produce a C3 of ~2. Over 4 - 6 months, lunar flybys alone can increase the C3 to ~4.5, or they can provide for additional periapsis burns to increase the C3 from ~2 -3 to 10 or more, suitable for planetary missions. A lunar flyby departure can be followed by additional ∆ -V (such as that efficiently provided by a low thrust system, eg. Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP)) to raise the Earth - relative velocity (at a ratio of more than 2:1) before a subsequent Earth flyby, which redirects that velocity to a more di stant target, all within not much more than a year. This paper describes the applicability of lunar flybys for different flight times and propulsi on systems, and illustrates this with instances of past usage and future possibilities. Examples discussed i nclude ISEE - 3, Nozomi, STEREO, 2018 Mars studies (which showed an 8% payload increase), and missions to Near Earth Objects (NEOs). In addition, the options for the achieving the initial lunar flyby are systematically discussed, with a view towards their p ractical use with in a compact launch period. In particular, we show that launches to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) as a secondary payload provide a feasible means of obtaining a lunar flyby for an acceptable cost, even for SEP systems that cannot ea sily deliver large ∆ - Vs at periapsis. Taken together, these results comprise a myriad of options for increasing the mission performance, by the efficient use of lunar flybys within an acceptable extension of the flight time.

lunar fly-bys↗

Radiative Impacts of Further Arctic Sea Ice Melt: Using past Observations to Inform Future Climate Impacts

The Arctic region has seen dramatic changes over the past several decades, from polar amplification of global temperature rise to ecosystem changes to the decline of the sea ice. While there has been much speculation as to when the world will see an ice-free Arctic, the radiative impacts of an eventual disappearance of the Arctic sea ice are likely to be significant regardless of the timing. Using CERES radiation and microwave satellite sea ice data, Pistone et al (2014) estimated the radiative forcing due to albedo changes associated with the Arctic sea ice retreat over the 30 years of the satellite data record. In this study, we found that the Arctic Ocean saw a decrease in all-sky albedo of 4% (from 52% to 48%), for an estimated increase in solar heating of 6.4 W/m(exp 2) between 1979 and 2011, or 0.21 W/m(exp 2) when averaged over the globe. This value is substantial--approximately 25% as large as the forcing due to the change in CO2 during the same period. Here we update and expand upon this previous work and use the CERES broadband shortwave observations to explore the radiative impacts of a transition to completely ice-free Arctic Ocean. We estimate the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions to be 14% over the region, or approximately 25% lower in absolute terms than the Arctic Ocean cloud-free albedo in 1979. However, the question of all-sky conditions (i.e. including the effects of clouds) introduces a new level of complexity. We explore several cloud scenarios and the resultant impact on albedo. In each of these cases, the estimated forcing is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. We describe the relative contributions of ice loss by month as well as the spatial distributions of the resulting changes in absorbed solar energy. The seasonal timing and location—in addition to magnitude—of the altered solar absorption may have significant implications for atmospheric and ocean dynamics in the Arctic and at lower latitudes; this observationally-based estimate of the large-scale characteristics of an ice-free Arctic thus provides a valuable tool to complement and validate model-based assessments of future climate.

Pistone, K.↗

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solwnd: A 3D Compressible MHD Code for Solar Wind Studies. Version 1.0: Cartesian Coordinates

Solwnd 1.0 is a three-dimensional compressible MHD code written in Fortran for studying the solar wind. Time-dependent boundary conditions are available. The computational algorithm is based on Flux Corrected Transport and the code is based on the existing code of Zalesak and Spicer. The flow considered is that of shear flow with incoming flow that perturbs this base flow. Several test cases corresponding to pressure balanced magnetic structures with velocity shear flow and various inflows including Alfven waves are presented. Version 1.0 of solwnd considers a rectangular Cartesian geometry. Future versions of solwnd will consider a spherical geometry. Some discussions of this issue is presented.

Deane, Anil E.↗

Solar Cell and Array Technology Development for NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Missions

NASA is currently developing advanced solar cell and solar array technologies to support future exploration activities. These advanced photovoltaic technology development efforts are needed to enable very large (multi-hundred kilowatt) power systems that must be compatible with solar electric propulsion (SEP) missions. The technology being developed must address a wide variety of requirements and cover the necessary advances in solar cell, blanket integration, and large solar array structures that are needed for this class of missions. Th is paper will summarize NASA's plans for high power SEP missions, initi al mission studies and power system requirements, plans for advanced photovoltaic technology development, and the status of specific cell and array technology development and testing that have already been conducted.

Piszczor, Michael↗