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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of Upper-Atmospheric Be-7 With Solar Energetic Particle Events

Surprisingly large concentrations of radioactive Be-7 have been found in the upper atmosphere at levels of one to three orders of magnitude greater than observed in the stratosphere. This phenomenon was originally observed on the LDEF satellite which was recovered in January 1990 following a period of extremely high solar activity in the fall of 1989. We report on follow-up measurements on the Russian COSMOS and RESURS F1 spacecraft during the period of 1996 to 1999 which was a period of minimal to moderate solar activity. The Be-7 concentrations observed on these flights were down substantially from the LDEF observations but were still one to two orders of magnitude higher than stratospheric levels. A significant correlation is observed between the Be-7 activity and the combined fluence of solar energetic protons (SEP) and galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons. The Be-7 activity is not correlated with overall solar activity as represented by the solar x-ray flux. We discuss possible mechanisms for the solar proton correlation. However, it is likely that the Be-7 is ionized and it is unknown how this will affect the calculations. There were several large solar flares in the fall of 1989 that produced extraordinarily intense solar particle events at the Earth and record geophysical disturbances. These may have acted to increase production of Be-7 from spallation in the stratosphere and also to enhance transport to higher altitudes from the effects of heating and expansion of the upper atmosphere. Be-7 in the upper atmosphere may also have been produced directly at the Sun. Be-7 and Li-7 are produced in solar flares when accelerated alpha-particles fuse with He-4 in the solar atmosphere. Under optimistic assumptions for Sun to Earth transport and subsequent insertion into low Earth orbit, a Be-7 density of about 10(exp -7) atom/cubic cm at 310 km is estimated.

Phillips, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Tidal decomposition of zonal neutral and ion flows in the earth's upper equatorial thermosphere

Evidence is presented for strong coupling between the diurnal components of zonal neutral winds and ion drifts, suggesting that the relative importance of the E- and F-region dynamos be reevaluated. Measurements of zonal neutral winds in the equatorial region of the earth's thermosphere at an average altitude of about 350 km show that the nighttime zonal winds are very similar to the zonal ion-drifts. That similarity is examined, comparing the corresponding tidal components of the 24 hr variations of these two parameters. The amplitude spectrum of the neutral winds exhibits primary and secondary maxima at the diurnal and ter-diurnal frequencies respectively, while the ion-drift spectrum shows only the diurnal maximum. It is found that the simularity between neutral winds and ion-drifts is strongest in the diurnal mode where the phases differ by less than one half hour, the amplitude of the ion-drift being between 70 percent and 80 percent that of the neutral wind, suggesting a first-order relation between the two quantities. The largest difference is found in the steady component representing superrotation; under similar conditions of solar activity, the ions superrotate with a velocity of about 30 m/s and the neutrals with 10 m/s. For the ions, the steady component, the phase of the semi-diurnal component and the amplitude of the ter-diurnal component appear to be sensitive to solar activity and are responsible for the observed solar cycle variations in the times of eastward-to-westward reversals between 0400 and 0700 LT. The ion-drift diurnal amplitude and phase are relatively insensitive to changes in solar activity.

Herrero, F. A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Where is the cosmic-ray modulation boundary of the heliosphere?

The intensity of Galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere is modulated by solar activities. The outer boundary where the solar modulation begins has always been a subject matter of debate in the cosmic-ray and heliophysics community. Various experimental methods and theoretical model calculations have been used to determine the boundary. Although the heliopause was always suspected to be the boundary, it is only until very recently after Voyager 1 had crossed the heliopause did we confirm that the boundary is indeed the heliopause. In this paper, we use a model simulation and detailed Voyager observation of cosmic rays at the heliopause crossing to show that the modulation boundary, in fact, is a fraction of an AU beyond the heliopause. Such a conclusion requires a very low turbulence level of the interstellar magnetic field in the outer heliosheath. According to the quasi-linear theory, a low level of turbulence should result in a very large diffusion coefficient parallel to the magnetic field and a very small perpendicular diffusion coefficient. For the first time, we are confident that Voyager 1 has obtained the truly pristine local interstellar cosmic-ray spectra down to the energies below 1 MeV. The cosmic-ray intensity is rapidly filtered by a thin layer of the interstellar magnetic field immediately outside of the heliopause. Its filtration amount depends on the conditions of magnetic field turbulence on the both sides of the heliopause, thus making it solar-cycle dependent as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Radio scintillation variations of the circumsolar plasma over the course of the solar cycle

Interplanetary scintillation observations of the solar wind acceleration region (solar elongation: R approximately 4-30 R(solar mass)) have been performed at the Effelsberg and Pushino telescopes using natural radio sources. The water maser source IRC-20431 was observed at the wavelength lambda = 1.35 cm in a series of nine scintillation experiments performed during the December solar occultations from 1981 to 1994. Dramatic changes in the radial dependence of the scintillation index m(R) were recorded over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. Decidedly reduced scattering, attributed to a pronounced heliolatitude effect, was observed at the closest solar approach distances in the years around solar activity minimum. The anisotropy of the solar scattering region slowly evolves to a spherically symmetric pattern in the years of high solar activity as more intensive scattering returns to the polar latitudes.

Lotova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity are critical since these quantities are such important inputs to the thermospheric density models. At this time in the history of solar science there is no way to make such a forecast from first principles. Physical theory applied to the Sun is developing rapidly, but is still primitive. Techniques used for forecasting depend upon the observations over about 130 years, which is only twelve solar cycles. It has been noted that even-numbered cycles systematically tend to be smaller than the odd-numbered ones by about 20 percent. Another observation is that for the last 12 cycle pairs, an even-numbered sunspot cycle looks rather like the next odd-numbered cycle, but with the top cut off. These observations are examples of approximate periodicities that forecasters try to use to achieve some insight into the nature of an upcoming cycle. Another new and useful forecasting aid is a correlation that has been noted between geomagnetic indices and the size of the next solar cycle. Some best estimates are given concerning both activities.

Joselyn, Joann↗
NASA NTRS1985

Long term changes in cosmic ray diurnal variations observed by ion chambers in Hong Kong and Japan

Yearly average solar diurnal variations of cosmic ray ion chamber data are inspected from a view point of the eleven and the 22 year solar activity cycle modulations. Ion chamber data and neutron data from various stations are added. From an inspection of observed data, a simple approximation that the 11 year and the 22 year variations of the solar diurnal variation are along 18-hour and 12-hour axes, respectively is proposed. The 18-hour component of diurnal variation in the 11 year cycle increases toward the solar active years. The 12-hour component is enhanced when the solar general magnetic field is parallel to the rotation vector, and is almost zero for the other state. The transition occurs when the amplitude of the 18-hour component is greater owing to the transition of the field during the maximum phase of solar activity. The 22 year shift is consistent with the drift modulation model in heliosphere.

Chuang, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The sun since the Bronze Age

An investigation is conducted concerning the behavior of the sun during the last 7000 years. The C-14 content in carbonaceous fossil material can be used as an indicator regarding the level of solar activity at the time when the carbon was assimilated in the process of photosynthesis. Living trees, such as the bristlecone pine, provide a solar activity record to about 3000 B.C. The record can be extended with the aid of well-preserved dead wood to beyond 5000 B.C. The results of an analysis of solar activity levels as a function of time on the basis of C-14 contents are presented in a graph. Attention is given to the Maunder Minimum, a history of the sun in the last 5000 years, an interpretation of the major C-14 excursions, and the sun and climate history.

Eddy, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Effects of coronal disturbances on the ionization state of the solar wind

A theoretical investigation of the relationship between physical conditions in coronal disturbances and the ionization states of the resulting perturbed solar wind was conducted. Available measurements of active solar wind associated with solar flares often show an enhanced degree of ionization (e.g., Fe(+17)), implying that the measured solar wind material is flare-heated at its coronal source. In contrast, other active solar wind flows sometimes show anomalously low degrees of ionization (e.g., He(+)), implying that some solar material is expelled from the corona without ever reaching coronal temperatures. The effects of impulsive heat and/or momentum addition in the corona on the hydrodynamics and ionization state of the corona and solar wind were studied. One of the primary objectives of the current grant was the development of a software package suitable for: (1) generating models for the effects of impulsive heat and/or momentum deposition on plasma temperatures, densities and flow velocities; and (2) calculating the ionization state of the solar wind as a function of the location, duration and magnitude of heat and/or momentum deposition.

Withbroe, G. L.↗
DOE OSTI2014

STOCHASTICITY AND PERSISTENCE OF SOLAR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

The study of the statistical properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reveals that their properties depend on the period of solar activity. In particular, when investigating the origin of the waiting time distribution between CMEs, a significant departure from a Poisson process during periods of high solar activity has been found, thus suggesting the existence of at least two physical processes underlying the origin of CMEs. One acts continuously, perhaps related to randomly occurring magnetic reconfigurations of the solar corona at large scales. The other plays a role only during the solar maximum, probably due to the photospheric emergence of magnetic flux as a statistically persistent mechanism, which generates long correlation times among CME events strong enough not to be destroyed by the former random process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Physics of solar cosmic rays

A review of the historical development of solar cosmic ray research is presented and details concerning the solar atmosphere, the interplanetary space, and solar activity are considered, giving attention to solar-atmosphere structure, problems of radiative transfer, questions of solar magnetism, solar wind, and interplanetary plasmas. Solar flares and associated phenomena are discussed along with the generation of solar cosmic ray events, the mechanism of solar flares, the acceleration process of solar cosmic rays, the propagation of solar cosmic rays, and relations between the flow of energetic protons and solar active regions. Questions regarding the origin theory of cosmic rays are also explored, taking into account the solar origin theory and problems of flare stars.

Sakurai, K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecast of an exceptionally large even-numbered solar cycle

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, an accurate prediction was made for solar cycle 21 by Schatten et al. (1978). Using the same dynamo technique for solar cycle 22, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 170 + or - 25 is obtained. This large sunspot number is expected to peak in 1990 + or - 1 year. The F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 210 + or - 25 flux units. Since this value is larger than values obtained with prediction schemes based upon 'statistical' and 'periodicity' methods, it provides a useful test for the current methodology, based upon the strength of the sun's polar field near solar minimum. The predicted degree of solar activity is expected to enhance the density and temperature of the earth's thermosphere to values somewhat larger than those found in solar cycle 21. This will have an impact on the orbital lifetime of low altitude satellites.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Electrical coupling between the lower atmosphere and the ionosphere

The evidence for interactions between the ionosphere and troposphere is reviewed as a first step in establishing the role of electrical coupling between two regions. Upward processes appear to include the transfer of energy through gravity waves, or through the transmittance of VLF radio waves induced by lightning. In each case, the excitation of the upper atmosphere by tropospheric sources can stimulate feedback processes returning to the troposphere. Downward coupling involves changes in the global and local electrical structure of the atmosphere, and is often induced by solar activity. These effects are more direct and may possibly bypass the stratosphere. The responses in the atmospheric circuit to local changes are nearly instantaneous, and therefore are looked on with promise for possible influences on weather systems. Emerging experimental evidence indicates that atmospheric electric fields, especially at high latitudes and in the upper atmosphere, are responsive to solar and geomagnetic phenomena. Corpuscular radiations are known to strongly enhance the local atmospheric electrical conductivity and ionizations at stratospheric and mesospheric altitudes. Theories postulate that the electric field perturbations regulated by solar activity may be responsibile for the observed statistical correlations between solar activity and thunderstorms.

Goldberg, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cycle length dependence of stellar magnetic activity and solar cycle 23

Solar cycle (SC) 23 was extraordinarily long with remarkably low magnetic activity. We have investigated whether this is a common behavior of solar-type stars. From the Ca ii H and K line intensities of 111 stars observed at Mount Wilson Observatory from 1966 to 1991, we have retrieved data of all 23 G-type stars and recalculated their cycle lengths using the damped least-squares method for the chromospheric activity index S as a function of time. A regression analysis was performed to find relations between the derived cycle length, P{sub avg}, and the index for excess chromospheric emission, R{sub HK}{sup ′}. As a noteworthy result, we found a segregation between young and old solar-type stars in the cycle length-activity correlation. We incorporated the relation for the solar-type stars into the previously known rule for stellar chromospheric activity and brightness to estimate the variation of solar brightness from SC 22 to SC 23 as (0.12 ± 0.06)%, much higher than the actual variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) ≤0.02%. We have then examined solar spectral irradiance (SSI) to find a good phase correlation with a sunspot number in the wavelength range of 170–260 nm, which is close to the spectral range effective in heating the Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, it appears that SSI rather than TSI is a good indicator of the chromospheric activity, and its cycle length dependent variation would be more relevant to the possible role of the Sun in the cyclic variation of the Earth’s atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Ar(+) in the terrestrial ionosphere

The Ar(+) densities in the terrestrial ionosphere are computed for both low and high solar activity models. The reaction N2(+)(v greater than 0) + Ar yields N2 + Ar(+) is found to be a significant source of Ar(+) nearly equal to photoionization and electron impact ionization in the high solar activity model. Peak densities of Ar(+) of 11 per cu cm near 190 km and 22 per cu cm near 220 km are predicted for the low and high solar activity models. It is suggested that a simultaneous measurement of Ar(+) and Ar densities would provide a test for the presence of vibrationally excited N2(+) in the terrestrial ionosphere.

Fox, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Microwave spectroscopy of the active sun

In studies of solar active regions and bursts, the ability to obtain spatially resolved radio spectra (brightness temperature spectra) opens a whole new range of possibilities for study of the solar corona. For active regions, two-dimensional maps of brightness temperature over a wide range of frequencies allows one to determine temperature, column density, and magnetic field strength over the entire region in a straightforward, unambiguous way. For flares, the time-dependent electron energy distribution, number of accelerated electrons, and magnetic field strength and direction can be found. In practice, obtaining complete radio images at a large number of frequencies is a significant technical challenge, especially while keeping costs down. Our instrument at Owens Valley Radio Observatory provided the starting point for a modest attempt at meeting this goal. We proposed to build three additional, very low-cost 2-m antennas which, when combined with our existing two 27-m dishes, expands the array to 5 elements. This modest increase in number of solar dedicated antennas, from 2 to 5, increases our maximum number of physical baselines from 1 to 10 and allows the instrument to do true imaging of solar microwave sources, both bursts and active regions. Combined with the technique of frequency synthesis, the new array has up to 450 effective baselines, giving imaging capability that approaches that of a sub-arrayed VLA. The prototype antenna design was finalized and the antenna was put into operation in Nov. 1989.

Hurford, Gordon↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Radiation Environment in Free Space and Inside Low-Earth Spacecraft's

There are three main sources of radiation in free space. These are the trapped protons and electrons, solar energetic particles, and the galactic cosmic rays. For human mission to Mars or moon, the trapped protons and electrons are of a minor concern. The flux of trapped particles at a fixed spacecraft altitude, and of galactic cosmic rays, decreases as the solar activity increases; however, the probability of a solar particle event increases as the solar activity increases. As these particles interact with the shielding material of the spacecraft and human body, they produce secondary particles, such as lighter fragments, target fragments, and neutrons. These particles can have far more damaging effect on cells than the primary particles. Thus, the radiation environment is very complex and varies with time. In this paper, we review the sources of charged-particles that contribute significantly to radiation risk to the astronauts, and estimates of exposure for some typical missions, such as Space Shuttle, International Space Station, and a human mission to Mars.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗