Results for “Scenario planning” — Page 41

NASA NTRS2024

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗

NASA NTRS2008

On-Orbit Constraints Test - Performing Pre-Flight Tests with Flight Hardware, Astronauts and Ground Support Equipment to Assure On-Orbit Success

On-Orbit Constraints Test (OOCT's) refers to mating flight hardware together on the ground before they will be mated on-orbit. The concept seems simple but it can be difficult to perform operations like this on the ground when the flight hardware is being designed to be mated on-orbit in a zero-g and/or vacuum environment of space. Also some of the items are manufactured years apart so how are mating tasks performed on these components if one piece is on-orbit before its mating piece is planned to be built. Both the Internal Vehicular Activity (IVA) and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) OOCT's performed at Kennedy Space Center will be presented in this paper. Details include how OOCT's should mimic on-orbit operational scenarios, a series of photographs will be shown that were taken during OOCT's performed on International Space Station (ISS) flight elements, lessons learned as a result of the OOCT's will be presented and the paper will conclude with possible applications to Moon and Mars Surface operations planned for the Constellation Program.

Haddad, Michael E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating the Autonomous Future: A Look at Virtual Vehicle Environments and How to Validate Simulation Using Public Data Sets

The rapid evolution of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has exposed the need for fast-paced development and testing processes of a variety of perception, planning, and control algorithms. To expedite development, the AV industry and researchers leverage virtual vehicle environments to simulate a range of test scenarios that may otherwise be costly or difficult to conduct on a real test track. However, the various virtual environments may have different results depending on the fidelity of various simulation features, such as vehicle dynamics, sensor simulation, and environment recreation. Herein, this tutorial article examines a proposed framework for constructing, parameterizing, and validating a virtual vehicle environment using an existing AV data set. First, an overview of several open source and commercially available simulation tools, including their associated workflows, for scene and scenario creation is presented. Next, various open AV data sets are examined to inform the data set selection for the validation framework. Then, an example workflow of recreating a real-world scene from the selected data set in a simulation tool with various emulated sensors parameterized to match the data set is demonstrated. Finally, an example AV-perception algorithm is subjected to data streams from virtual and real-world environments and suggested metrics for analyzing the results are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Unit Dwelling Plug-in EV Charging Innovation Pilots (Final Report)

Nearly one-third of residences in the U.S. are multi-unit dwellings (MUDs), e.g., apartments and condominiums, and MUDs with five or more units account for approximately 45% of rental households. While 80% of EV charging takes place at home, less than 5% of home charging takes place at MUDs. With public electric vehicle (EV) charging still underdeveloped, lack of access to reliable home charging is a major barrier to EV adoption for MUD residents. Challenges to siting electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at MUDs include the high upfront cost of EVSE installation, physical and/or electrical infrastructure constraints, a lack of clear incentives for property managers to invest in installing EV charging for tenants, and a limited number of EV charging service providers that offer solutions adapted to the unique needs of MUDs. Through award DE-EE0008473 from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE), Energetics, and Forth, along with a diverse team of partners, led a three-year project to address barriers to EV charging at MUDs by developing an online toolkit geared toward residents, homeowner associations (HOAs), and property managers. The project, referred to as Vehicle Charging Innovations – Multi-Unit Dwellings (VCI-MUD project), engaged stakeholders across the country to identify real and perceived barriers to EV charging at MUDs and explored innovative technologies that attempt to alleviate the identified barriers. Over the course of three and a half years, the project conducted 60 interviews with industry stakeholders, compiled findings in an easy-to-use toolkit, and disseminated the toolkit across national, regional, state, and local channels. Key findings and outcomes of the VCI-MUD project include: Identifying six primary barriers to the installation of EV charging at MUDs; Developing five fact sheets and eight case studies highlighting innovative charging solutions to address barriers, including real-world operational and financial data; Developing a user-friendly, online empowerment toolkit with five important points for “making your pitch” to support EV charging to assist residents, property managers, building managers, and HOAs explore options for MUD charging. The VCI-MUD online toolkit was designed with replicability in mind. It includes general tools and guides to evaluate EV charging demand, gauge readiness for EV charging installation, and develop actionable plans. The fact sheets and case studies highlight the diversity of emerging MUD EV charging solutions, featuring different geographic and structural installation scenarios and providing interested parties with a menu of options, rather than prescribing a one-size-fits-all solution. The following resources are included in the toolkit to provide MUD stakeholders with all the information needed to navigate EV charging installation at their MUD location: Empowerment Toolkit – Easy-to-read FAQ overview, stakeholder roles and responsibilities, and additional resources for MUD EV charging installations; Charging Basics – Glossary of terms and descriptions of charging features, installation and operating expenses; EV Charging Survey Templates – Resident-to-Resident, Property Manager-to-Resident and HOA-to-Resident template letters with pre-populated template questions; Technology Selection Tool – Charging barrier fact sheets and case study examples; Installation Checklist – Submittal document requirements for EVSE installations; MUD Building Self-Evaluation Survey – Self-guided evaluation of potential barriers to EV charging installation at MUD locations; Curbside Resources – Case studies and fact sheets for curbside charging options; Find a Certified Electrician – Approved list of certified EV charging installers; “Right-to-Charge” State Legal References – Legal requirements for charging equipment at MUD locations. The online toolkit was promoted extensively in the final six months of the project and will continue to be disseminated by the Clean Cities Coalitions and other partners after the end of the VCI-MUD project to encourage, support, and demonstrate viable solutions for vehicle charging infrastructure in MUDs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Design of Engineering-Scale Salt Accident Analysis Facility to Support Molten Salt Reactor Licensing

Systems-level nuclear accident analysis codes for reactor licensing must be validated using experimental data that represent behaviors expected during actual full-scale accidents. Some behaviors may arise from coupled processes and only manifest at large scales. This report presents the preliminary design of the Salt Accident Analysis Facility (SAAF, pronounced “safe”), which is an experimental test facility to be constructed at Argonne that can be used to conduct integrated salt accident tests at an engineering scale. The measurement capabilities of the SAAF are based on previously developed methods and will provide the representative datasets that are needed to support molten salt reactor (MSR) licensing. Details of the design, the processes to be quantified, the measurement techniques for quantifying the processes, the variables that can be adjusted to simulate different accident scenarios, and operational considerations are presented herein. This report provides stakeholders the opportunity to give feedback on the test facility capabilities and planned analyses before it is constructed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options. Volume 1: Executive summary NASA

The uses alignment plan was implemented. The existing data bank was used to define a large number of station requirements. Ten to 20 valid mission scenarios were developed. Architectural options as they are influenced by communications operations, subsystem evolvability, and required technology growth are defined. Costing of evolutionary concepts, alternative approaches, and options, was based on minimum design details.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Thermal Design of a Collapsible Cryogenic Vessel

Strategic planning for human exploration missions to Mars has conclusively identified in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) as an enabling technology. Most mission scenarios include an ISRU plant to produce propellants for ascent from Mars as well as the production of backup reserves of water, oxygen, and process gases. Current mission scenarios call for an ISRU plant to be deployed and then produce and store the required propellants and life support reserves before the arrival of the first human mission. Reliable cryogenic propellant liquefaction and storage technologies for extended period missions are especially critical. This report examines the cryogenic storage problem for liquid oxygen produced by an ISRU plant for a human mission scenario. The analysis examines various hardware configurations including insulation types, packaging techniques, and required cryocoolers to minimize the initial launch mass to low Earth orbit. Results of the analyses indicate that high vacuum insulation systems requiring vacuum pressures below one millitorr will be required to minimize the 'initial launch mass into low Earth orbit even though the temperature on the surface of Mars is much lower than Earth.

Hegab, Hisham E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Surface Landing Site Weather Analysis for NASA's Constellation Program

Weather information is an important asset for NASA's Constellation Program in developing the next generation space transportation system to fly to the International Space Station, the Moon and, eventually, to Mars. Weather conditions can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing of the Ares vehicles to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Meteorological analysis is art important contributor, not only to the development and verification of system design requirements but also to mission planning and active ground operations. Of particular interest are the surface weather conditions at both nominal and abort landing sites for the manned Orion capsule. Weather parameters such as wind, rain, and fog all play critical roles in the safe landing of the vehicle and subsequent crew and vehicle recovery. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch has been tasked by the Constellation Program with defining the natural environments at potential landing zones. This paper wiI1 describe the methodology used for data collection and quality control, detail the types of analyses performed, and provide a sample of the results that cab be obtained.

Altino, Karen M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Surface Landing Site Weather Analysis for Constellation Program

Weather information is an important asset for NASA's Constellation Program in developing the next generation space transportation system to fly to the International Space Station, the Moon and, eventually, to Mars. Weather conditions can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Meteorological analysis is an important contributor, not only to the development and verification of system design requirements but also to mission planning and active ground operations. Of particular interest are the surface atmospheric conditions at both nominal and abort landing sites for the manned Orion capsule. Weather parameters such as wind, rain, and fog all play critical roles in the safe landing of the vehicle and subsequent crew and vehicle recovery. The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has been tasked by the Constellation Program with defining the natural environments at potential landing zones. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of occurrence of various sets of hypothetical vehicle constraint thresholds, Data are available for numerous geographical locations such that statistical analysis can be performed for single sites as well as multiple-site network configurations. Results provide statistical descriptions of how often certain weather conditions are observed at the site(s) and the percentage that specified criteria thresholds are matched or exceeded. Outputs are tabulated by month and hour of day to show both seasonal and diurnal variation. This paper will describe the methodology used for data collection and quality control, detail the types of analyses performed, and provide a sample of the results that can be obtained,

Altino, Karen M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Factors for Incorporating User Preferences in Air Traffic Management: A system Perspective

This paper presents an analysis of factors that impact user flight schedules during air traffic congestion. In pre-departure flight planning, users file one route per flight, which often leads to increased delays, inefficient airspace utilization, and exclusion of user flight preferences. In this paper, first the idea of filing alternate routes and providing priorities on each of those routes is introduced. Then, the impact of varying planning interval and system imposed departure delay increment is discussed. The metrics of total delay and equity are used for analyzing the impact of these factors on increased traffic and on different users. The results are shown for four cases, with and without the optional routes and priority assignments. Results demonstrate that adding priorities to optional routes further improves system performance compared to filing one route per flight and using first-come first-served scheme. It was also observed that a two-hour planning interval with a five-minute system imposed departure delay increment results in highest delay reduction. The trend holds for a scenario with increased traffic.

Sheth, Kapil S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Correlation of Amine Swingbed On-Orbit CO2 Performance with a Hardware Independent Predictive Model

The Amine Swingbed Payload is an experimental system deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) that includes a two-bed, vacuum regenerated, amine-based carbon dioxide (CO2) removal subsystem as the principal item under investigation. The aminebased subsystem, also described previously in various publications as CAMRAS 3, was originally designed, fabricated and tested by Hamilton Sundstrand Space Systems International, Inc. (HSSSI) and delivered to NASA in November 2008. The CAMRAS 3 unit was subsequently designed into a flight payload experiment in 2010 and 2011, with flight test integration activities accomplished on-orbit between January 2012 and March 2013. Payload activation was accomplished in May 2013 followed by a 1000 hour experimental period. The experimental nature of the Payload and the interaction with the dynamic ISS environment present unique scientific and engineering challenges, in particular to the verification and validation of the expected Payload CO2 removal performance. A modeling and simulation approach that incorporates principles of chemical reaction engineering has been developed for the amine-based system to predict the dynamic cabin CO2 partial pressure with given inputs of sorbent bed size, process air flow, operating temperature, half-cycle time, CO2 generation rate, cabin volume and the magnitude of vacuum available. Simulation runs using the model to predict ambient CO2 concentrations show good correlation to on-orbit performance measurements and ISS dynamic concentrations for the assumed operating conditions. The dynamic predictive modelling could benefit operational planning to help ensure ISS CO2 concentrations are maintained below prescribed limits and for the Orion vehicle to simulate various operating conditions, scenarios and transients.

Papale, William↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

TPSAS-NF1676L-12441-DND

The increasing presence of airport surface surveillance technologies has spawned a strong interest in airport surface traffic management research; the vast majority has assumed that the airport’s runway configuration is known and constant. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one component of NASA’s System Oriented Runway Management concept, plans the airport configuration to optimize traffic efficiency for the forecast weather, traffic, and other factors. While planning runway configuration can provide benefit and is required by other automation concepts, larger benefits are possible by planning other airport configuration decisions, such as runway assignment policies, that are currently made manually by controllers. A laboratory prototype of the TRCM algorithm which selects optimal airport configuration schedules has been implemented and studied within a simulation environment. The presentation will describe simulation results for several airports, under various weather and traffic conditions. The sequence of airport configurations recommended by TRCM result in significantly less delay than the airport configurations that were actually used by controllers, illustrating both the potential benefit from airport configuration optimization and the ability of TRCM to provide effective airport configuration schedules. The application to several, distinct airports demonstrates the approach is capable of handling the differences between airports with a common algorithm, while providing decision support that respects the current procedures at those airports. Consequently, TRCM is able to be deployed to any airport within the current National Airspace System. The TRCM algorithmic approach is also extensible to future operational scenarios. NASA is in the process of transferring the initial TRCM technology to the FAA. Future research will extend the concept and algorithm to provide coordinated plans for metroplex airports and study NextGen applications.

Stephen Atkins↗

NASA NTRS2011

TPSAS-NF1676L-12263-DND

The increasing presence of airport surface surveillance technologies has spawned a strong interest in airport surface traffic management research; the vast majority has assumed that the airport’s runway configuration is known and constant. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one component of NASA’s System Oriented Runway Management concept, plans the airport configuration to optimize traffic efficiency for the forecast weather, traffic, and other factors. While planning runway configuration can provide benefit and is required by other automation concepts, larger benefits are possible by planning other airport configuration decisions, such as runway assignment policies, that are currently made manually by controllers. A laboratory prototype of the TRCM algorithm which selects optimal airport configuration schedules has been implemented and studied within a simulation environment. The presentation will describe simulation results for several airports, under various weather and traffic conditions. The sequence of airport configurations recommended by TRCM result in significantly less delay than the airport configurations that were actually used by controllers, illustrating both the potential benefit from airport configuration optimization and the ability of TRCM to provide effective airport configuration schedules. The application to several, distinct airports demonstrates the approach is capable of handling the differences between airports with a common algorithm, while providing decision support that respects the current procedures at those airports. Consequently, TRCM is able to be deployed to any airport within the current National Airspace System. The TRCM algorithmic approach is also extensible to future operational scenarios. NASA is in the process of transferring the initial TRCM technology to the FAA. Future research will extend the concept and algorithm to provide coordinated plans for metroplex airports and study NextGen applications.

Stephen Atkins↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Test Exploration of Integrated Wildfire Response Operations with Crewed and Uncrewed Air Assets

Since 2016, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster relief operations. Current disaster response operations would benefit from the use of UAS but are limited by the need for safe airspace integration technologies and enabling regulations. The work presented in this paper focuses on the safe integration of UAS and helicopters in active wildfire disaster response operations. The authors propose the use of mission planning and traffic management technologies, including onboard pilot situation awareness support technologies, to coordinate airspace operations between crewed and uncrewed aircraft (e.g., UAS). A representative wildfire scenario including a helicopter and UAS was developed. The helicopter mission included a flight path that mimicked the siphoning of water from a natural water reservoir (lake) and a subsequent water drop over vegetation along the progressing edge of a fire perimeter. Simulated UAS were assumed to conduct aerial ignition flights in the vicinity as part of a controlled burn of the vegetation ahead of the fire front to create a natural barrier between the fire and a nearby populated area. A situation awareness tool was developed and used to support the helicopter pilots’ task to stay clear of the volume of airspace where the UAS was conducting its operation while efficiently conducting the fire suppression mission. A flight test using JAXA’s experimental helicopter was conducted in August 2022 to validate the developed technology. The advantages of the developed technology were demonstrated, and pilot feedback confirmed that real-time awareness of the UAS operation airspace helped the flight planning and execution of a safe mission that minimized the flight time loss due to the potential interference with the UAS. Post-flight interviews with the pilots indicated no sufficient increase in the pilots’ workload and provided ideas for future technology development. Future research will provide recommendations to standards development organizations to support considerations for crewed-uncrewed interactions in disaster-response operations.

disaster response↗

NASA NTRS2010

Pre-Flight Tests with Astronauts, Flight and Ground Hardware, to Assure On-Orbit Success

On-Orbit Constraints Test (OOCT's) refers to mating flight hardware together on the ground before they will be mated on-orbit or on the Lunar surface. The concept seems simple but it can be difficult to perform operations like this on the ground when the flight hardware is being designed to be mated on-orbit in a zero-g/vacuum environment of space or low-g/vacuum environment on the Lunar/Mars Surface. Also some of the items are manufactured years apart so how are mating tasks performed on these components if one piece is on-orbit/on Lunar/Mars surface before its mating piece is planned to be built. Both the Internal Vehicular Activity (IVA) and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) OOCT's performed at Kennedy Space Center will be presented in this paper. Details include how OOCT's should mimic on-orbit/Lunar/Mars surface operational scenarios, a series of photographs will be shown that were taken during OOCT's performed on International Space Station (ISS) flight elements, lessons learned as a result of the OOCT's will be presented and the paper will conclude with possible applications to Moon and Mars Surface operations planned for the Constellation Program.

Haddad Michael E.↗