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At least 739 records · Page 41

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NASA NTRS1994

Hidden Markov Models for Fault Detection in Dynamic Systems

Continuous monitoring of complex dynamic systems is an increasingly important issue in diverse areas such as nuclear plant safety, production line reliability, and medical health monitoring systems. Recent advances in both sensor technology and computational capabilities have made on-line permanent monitoring much more feasible than it was in the past. In this paper it is shown that a pattern recognition system combined with a finite-state hidden Markov model provides a particularly useful method for modelling temporal context in continuous monitoring. The parameters of the Markov model are derived from gross failure statistics such as the mean time between failures. The model is validated on a real-world fault diagnosis problem and it is shown that Markov modelling in this context offers significant practical benefits.

Smyth, Padhraic↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis Developed for Turbomachinery Components

Aeroelastic analyses for advanced turbomachines are being developed for use at the NASA Glenn Research Center and industry. However, these analyses at present are used for turbomachinery design with uncertainties accounted for by using safety factors. This approach may lead to overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of designing higher efficiency engines. An integration of the deterministic aeroelastic analysis methods with probabilistic analysis methods offers the potential to design efficient engines with fewer aeroelastic problems and to make a quantum leap toward designing safe reliable engines. In this research, probabilistic analysis is integrated with aeroelastic analysis: (1) to determine the parameters that most affect the aeroelastic characteristics (forced response and stability) of a turbomachine component such as a fan, compressor, or turbine and (2) to give the acceptable standard deviation on the design parameters for an aeroelastically stable system. The approach taken is to combine the aeroelastic analysis of the MISER (MIStuned Engine Response) code with the FPI (fast probability integration) code. The role of MISER is to provide the functional relationships that tie the structural and aerodynamic parameters (the primitive variables) to the forced response amplitudes and stability eigenvalues (the response properties). The role of FPI is to perform probabilistic analyses by utilizing the response properties generated by MISER. The results are a probability density function for the response properties. The probabilistic sensitivities of the response variables to uncertainty in primitive variables are obtained as a byproduct of the FPI technique. The combined analysis of aeroelastic and probabilistic analysis is applied to a 12-bladed cascade vibrating in bending and torsion. Out of the total 11 design parameters, 6 are considered as having probabilistic variation. The six parameters are space-to-chord ratio (SBYC), stagger angle (GAMA), elastic axis (ELAXS), Mach number (MACH), mass ratio (MASSR), and frequency ratio (WHWB). The cascade is considered to be in subsonic flow with Mach 0.7. The results of the probabilistic aeroelastic analysis are the probability density function of predicted aerodynamic damping and frequency for flutter and the response amplitudes for forced response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Stress Rupture Testing

This paper reports stress rupture testing of Kevlar(TradeMark) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) at NASA White Sands Test Facility. This 6-year test program was part of the larger effort to predict and extend the lifetime of flight vessels. Tests were performed to characterize control parameters for stress rupture testing, and vessel life was predicted by statistical modeling. One highly instrumented 102-cm (40-in.) diameter Kevlar(TradeMark) COPV was tested to failure (burst) as a single-point model verification. Significant data were generated that will enhance development of improved NDE methods and predictive modeling techniques, and thus better address stress rupture and other composite durability concerns that affect pressure vessel safety, reliability and mission assurance.

Greene, Nathanael J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Initial Evaluations of LoC Prediction Algorithms Using the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

Flying near the edge of the safe operating envelope is an inherently unsafe proposition. Edge of the envelope here implies that small changes or disturbances in system state or system dynamics can take the system out of the safe envelope in a short time and could result in loss-of-control events. This study evaluated approaches to predicting loss-of-control safety margins as the aircraft gets closer to the edge of the safe operating envelope. The goal of the approach is to provide the pilot aural, visual, and tactile cues focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. Our predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, an adaptive prediction method to estimate in real-time Markov model parameters and associated stability margins, and a real-time data-based predictive control margins estimation algorithm. The combined architecture is applied to a nonlinear transport class aircraft. Evaluations of various feedback cues using both test and commercial pilots in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion-base Simulator (VMS) were conducted in the summer of 2013. The paper presents results of this evaluation focused on effectiveness of these approaches and the cues in preventing the pilots from entering a loss-of-control event.

Pilot Cue↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fitting $\overline{ν}$ for Minor Pu Isotopes

After successful fitting of prompt ν for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu(n,f) using CGMF, we have moved on to the minor plutonium isotopes. Minor isotopes pose a greater challenge both because there is less data available and we do not, by default, have parametrizations in CGMF already. Initially, we had planned to mitigate these challenges—and provide consistency within CGMF—by taking a stepped approach to the optimization. Continuing from the 239 Pu work, we would then fit 241Pu(n,f) $\overline{ν}$, where there is also a number of experimental measurements, keeping consistency between the parameters that are included in the calculation for 239 Pu and 241 Pu. With these parametrizations settled, we could consistently optimize 240 Pu(n,f) $\overline{ν}$. Following that step, we would move on to 242 Pu(n,f) (and increasing neutron number) and 238 Pu(n,f) (and decreasing neutron number). By including the fissioning systems in this manner, we should be able to minimize the unknown parameters in CGMF. We were also able to develop systematics for the CGMF input parameters along the Pu isotopic chain. However, after studies in the beginning of FY23, where we found reasonable agreement between CGMF and experimental prompt neutron multiplicities for 238−242 Pu, using a compound mass dependent parametrization from, and from discussions with I. Stetcu and P. Talou, we instead performed the evaluation of all five isotopes simultaneously. For all parameters in CGMF, they are either the same for each compound nucleus, or have a dependence on the compound mass. The details of these updates are given in. This report builds upon those details. In this short report, we first give an example of how we have updated CGMF to include 240 Pu(n,f) and 242 Pu(n,f), keeping consistency with the current 239 Pu and 241 Pu calculations, but without rigorous optimization (Sec. 2). Then, we will show in Section 3 what experimental data exist for the various isotopes to provide some insight into why 241 Pu and 239 Pu are used as anchor points. The evaluation is detailed in Section 4, and the comparison between CGMF calculations using the evaluated parameters and other prompt observables besides average neutron multiplicity are discussed in Section 2.2. Finally, we present conclusions and future work in Section 5.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Project Presentation: Hardware-Based Demonstration of Temperature Control Functions for Reactor Systems

Autonomous thermal regulation in nuclear reactors remains crucial for maintaining stable operation and ensuring the integrity of fuel. To alleviate public skepticism of the safety of nuclear reactors, demonstrating control over this key factor is pivotal. Utilizing electric heat pads to simulate the heat released in a reactor core, thermocouples for temperature monitoring, and an Arduino micro programmable logic controller (PLC) with an embedded proportional-integral-derivative (PID) algorithm for control, a hardware-based demonstration of a reactor heating system will validate the efficacy of reactor control over this key parameter. This report covers internship project presentation as well as relevant experience with nuclear and proposal for project upgrade.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of MiniFuel Subcapsule Design Recommendations on Previous Experiments

MiniFuel describes the class of separate effects nuclear fuels irradiation experiments that have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) since 2018. These experiments comprise a stack of six fuel-bearing subcapsules contained in a stainless steel target housing that is in contact with HFIR coolant on its exterior. All MiniFuel targets have a near-standardized architecture, and the primary design variables that change between experiments are the radial gap size between the subcapsule and housing and the target fill gas composition. Finite element heat transfer models are used to determine the optimum gas composition and gap sizes, and recent studies were performed to identify model parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to fuel specimen temperature predictions. That work, which is referenced herein, also recommended a set of design modifications to the subcapsule internal architecture and assembly process. These modifications are intended to reduce fuel temperature uncertainty in future experiments. In this report, the subcapsule design modifications were retroactively applied to a previously conducted MiniFuel experiment to determine how these changes affect the established safety and performance envelope of the experimental capability. These effects were determined in two steps. First, the modifications were applied to the subcapsule design without any other changes to determine their isolated effect on the predicted fuel specimen temperatures. This portion of the analysis showed that fuel temperatures were modestly reduced because the implemented changes improved heat transfer efficacy. Next, traditional MiniFuel design activities (i.e., sizing the gas gaps and determining the fill gas composition) were reperformed, and they confirmed that the original desired fuel temperatures could be achieved while remaining within established safety limits. Therefore, this report demonstrates improved performance resulting from the subcapsule modifications, which mitigate uncertainty while meeting the objectives of past experiments. An additional benefit of the design changes is reduced sensitivity of the fuel temperature to the evolving flux spectrum in HFIR, leading to more stable temperatures and enhanced utility of MiniFuel as a separate effects irradiation platform.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

stress ratios↗

DOE OSTI2025

Poster: Hardware-Based Demonstration of Temperature Control Functions for Reactor Systems

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Gap between Academic Research and Industrial Requirements in Rechargeable Zinc-Ion Batteries

Rechargeable Zn-ion batteries (RZIBs) are considered to be promising energy storage systems for large-scale applications owing to their relatively high energy densities and inherently low costs, environmental benignity, as well as safety. With increasing interest and effort being devoted to this field, RZIBs are being tremendously advanced and are very likely to be commercialized in the near future. However, some challenges remain that need to be addressed. Moreover, reported results are quite often overstated through artificial exaggeration and cannot be translated to industrial applications as they were obtained under ideal testing conditions. Therefore, in this perspective, here we discuss key parameters that need to be carefully considered when translating laboratory-developed RZIBs into commercial reality. We also present a critical mini-review on RZIBs and devote effort to issues that are overlooked in academic research. We believe that this perspective provides new or seldom-discussed insight for future work and bridges the gap between academia and industry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dataset of mechanically induced thermal runaway measurement and severity level on Li-ion batteries

The deployment of Li-ion batteries covers a wide range of energy storage applications, from mobile phones, e-bikes, electric vehicles (EV) and stationary energy storage systems. However, safety issue such as thermal runaway is always one of the most important concerns to prevent Li-ion batteries from further market penetration. A standardized single-side indentation test protocol was developed to mechanically induce an internal short-circuit. The cell voltage, compressive load, indenter stroke, and temperature at the indentation point are measured in time series. The test data of each cell, along with cell parameters such as dimensions, mass, chemistry, state of charge (SOC), capacity, are integrated together to calculate a thermal runaway severity score from 0 to100. Complete data collection process including the original measured record, test method, severity score calculation scheme is presented in this article. The thermal runaway severity analysis and the more than 100 tested Li-ion battery records provide a good data source for further comparison and ranking of thermal runaway risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of Local Cathode Structure in Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries (SSBs) are promising candidates for energy storage systems—specifically for automotive applications—owing to their higher energy density and supreme safety. SSBs currently must improve area-specific cathode loadings as well as the electro-chemo-mechanical stability at high voltages. Composite cathodes in SSBs are comprised of active material, ion and electronic conductors, binders, and electronic conducting materials. In addition to experimental limitations with engineering thick cathode architectures, low utilization and chemomechanical degradation of the cathodes limit the performance of composite cathodes. Composite cathodes must optimize several parameters simultaneously to achieve high performances that include loading, electrochemically active surface area, mechanical resilience, and porosity. This chapter summarizes the current state-of-the-art applications with regard to composite cathodes for SSBs and provides insights into cathode architectures using geometric packing models. Tailoring ion and electron transport pathways within the electrode while mitigating operational stresses is crucial for achieving energy-dense cathode structres for SSBs.

Dixit, Marm↗

NASA NTRS1980

Performability evaluation of the SIFT computer

The paper deals with the models, techniques, and evaluation methods that were successfully used to test the performance of the SIFT degradable computing system. The performance of the computer plus its air transport mission environment is modeled as a random variable, taking values in a set of 'accomplishment level'. The levels are defined in terms of four attributes of total system (computer plus environment) behavior, namely safety, no change in mission profile, no operational penalties, and no economic penalties. The base model of the total system is a stochastic process, whose states describe the internal structure of SIFT and the relevant conditions of its computational environment. Base model state trajectories are related to accomplishment levels via a special function, and solution methods are then used to determine the performability of the total system for various parameters of the computer and environment.

Meyer, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling project of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies to enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. Information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. In Volume I, the concept of the Scenario was introduced as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. In this Volume II, that study continues into the analyses of the free narratives to gain understanding as to why the incident occurred from the reporter s perspective. While this is just the first experiment, the results of our approach are encouraging and indicate that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that can achieve the level of consistency and reliability of human analysis of narrative reports.

Ferryman, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Thermal Response in a Li-ion Cell on a UAV Fight Profile

As the energy storage devices continue to "pack" more energy in a small space, any damage, battery component failure, manufacturing defect, or electrically abusing the battery can lead to catastrophic thermal runaway events. A catastrophic thermal event in a cell leads to high temperature, in some instances spewing of battery materials due to gas development from side reactions initiated due to high internal temperatures. Also, a thermal runaway event can propagate from a single "failed" cell to the pack in a battery pack, leading to a more significant event. Mitigating a thermal runaway event is important in the commercial and automotive sectors. However, preventing such events in an electric aircraft (or air taxis) is paramount due to the lack of alternatives in the event of a failure. Battery prognostics algorithms allow the prediction of state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) of a Li-ion battery in a UAV (unmanned air vehicle) [1]. For this presentation, we will extend this two-level battery predictive algorithm to predict SOC, EOL, and estimated maximum temperature during a simulated flight. The model is extended by integrating a lumped physics-driven thermal model for high current densities [2]. The parameters used to control SOC and EOL are maximum storable charge, time constant for Li-ion diffusivity in the carbon particles, and internal cell resistance. Cycling leads to an increase in the heat generated by an aged Li-ion cell with a LiyCoO2 (LCO) cathode and a LixC6 (MCMB) anode. The aging of a cell leads to increase in SEI layer thickness, the diffusion time for the lithium ions inside the electrodes, and the local reaction rates, in addition to the thermodynamic abuse caused by fixed cycling voltages controlled by a Battery Management System. As the battery ages, the cell resistance increases, while the onset temperature of the thermal runaway decreases (depends on the cell chemistry and cell abuse history). Any large deviation of the cell temperature from the estimated (expected) value can identify a faulty cell. Since SEI decomposition has the lowest onset temperature in the series of reactions leading to thermal runaway, the model considers the self-heating rate of the SEI decomposition as onset temperature (similar to Ref. [3]). The parameters in the Arrhenius equation for the SEI heating rate depend on the number of cycles, the cell's operating temperature, and the cell's abuse history [4,5]. Coupling the electrochemical, thermal, and aging model allow the prognostic algorithm to estimate a typical cell voltage and temperature as a function of age (cycling and calendar), whose departure from measured values from the BMS is used to identify a safety event. In addition, we will present the results from two simulated flight scenarios for a UAV: typical and extreme, since the power requirements vary significantly during take-off, landing, and changing altitudes, while the power requirements remain low during the cruise. For this presentation, the power requirement for a battery pack in a UAV is scaled to a single cell. This cell is cycled through a simulated profile, and the data is collected and used to predict a safety event.

Li-ion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equivalent Fundamental-Mode Source Simulations for Spherical Uranium and Plutonium Systems [Abstract]

The equivalent fundamental-mode source refers to a “source” which is identically distributed in space, energy, and angle as that of a fundamental-mode fission source distribution. It has previously been shown that the system fixed source multiplication ($M_{fs}$) relates to the effective multiplication factor ($\kappa_{eff}$) as $M_{fs} = \frac{g^*}{1-k_{eff}}$ The term $\mathcal{g}$* therefore relates the system source distribution to the system equivalent fundamental-mode source. As previously shown, the $\mathcal{g}$* term is approximately 1 for deeply subcritical systems and then diverges as the system multiplication increases. For a system with a point source located in the center of an assembly (such a sphere), $\mathcal{g}$* will be greater than 1; this happens because there is a higher probability of induced fission when all of the starter neutrons originate from the center of the sphere. For a uniform source, $\mathcal{g}$* is less than 1, but does not diverge from 1 as dramatically as seen by a point source. One reason that $\mathcal{g}$* is an important parameter is that it is used in measurement methods to infer reactor kinetics parameters ($β_{eff}$ being one example). This work will discuss multiple ways to simulate $\mathcal{g}$* using MCNP®6.2, which include use of traditional methods versus a single input file method that was recently published. A discussion related to methods to simulate $M_{fs}$ will be presented. Spherical systems of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) will be compared with previous works. In addition, results of plutonium including multiple reflector materials will be investigated. Simulated systems will include both parametric studies as well as configurations used in recent experiments performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). These studies will include subtleties associated with system geometry that have not been previously shown. Last, this work will investigate the relationship between $\mathcal{g}$* and reactor kinetics parameters (such as $β_{eff}$).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of negative triangularity on microinstabilities in a low-recycling lithium-wall spherical tokamak

In this work, we present a linear gyrokinetic study of the impact of negative triangularity (NT) on microinstabilities in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β (LTX-β), a low-recycling spherical tokamak with liquid lithium plasma-facing components that produce flat electron-temperature profiles [Elliott et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 1382 (2020)]. While NT is widely recognized as a stabilizing mechanism and often associated with improved confinement in conventional tokamaks, this study reveals that its effect is not universally stabilizing in the parameter regime of LTX-β and is shown to be highly sensitive to local equilibria. Using local linear simulations with the GS2 code [Kotschenreuther et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1995)] at ρ=0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 for two representative discharges (#103955 and #109355), and employing the Miller equilibrium model to isolate shaping effects, we find that NT can transition from stabilizing to destabilizing depending on magnetic shear, safety factor, and electron-temperature gradient. In shot #103955, NT reduces growth rates across radii, with strongest stabilization at the edge, whereas in shot #109355, it is stabilizing in the core but destabilizing at mid-radius and edge under experimental conditions. Parametric scans show that flattening the electron-temperature profile, increasing magnetic shear, and reducing the safety factor recover NT stabilization. These results demonstrate that NT stabilization is tunable rather than intrinsic and requires coordinated control of magnetic geometry and gradient drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗