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DOE OSTI2023

Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice

The surface energy budget governs Arctic sea-ice growth/melt, yet observations are sparse, and reanalysis data sets suffer from systematic biases. Here, we train a neural network with observational data to bias-correct hourly ERA5 fluxes over Arctic ice-covered regions (≥70°N; sea-ice concentration >80%) for 1994–2024. Training data cover two full seasonal cycles and different sea-ice regimes. The neural network reduces RMSE for net shortwave radiation by ∼40%, downward longwave radiation by ∼16% and the total surface energy budget by ∼55%, eliminating the wintertime warm bias of ∼4 K in ERA5. Wintertime surface cooling is reduced by ∼50%, yielding thermodynamic ice-growth estimates of ∼80–120 cm, consistent with SMOS–CryoSat satellite thickness increases and in contrast to the 150–200 cm growth implied by ERA5. Our bias-corrected data capture the observed clear/cloudy states of the winter boundary layer and can be used to study Arctic climatology, evaluate climate models and drive sea-ice-ocean models.

Hossain, Akil [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar ↗

DOE OSTI2017

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here in this paper we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Organic bromine compounds produced in sea ice in Antarctic winter

During polar springtime, active bromine drives ozone, a greenhouse gas, to near-zero levels. Bromine production and emission in the polar regions have so far been assumed to require sunlight. Here, we report measurements of bromocarbons in sea ice, snow, and air during the Antarctic winter that reveal an unexpected new source of organic bromine to the atmosphere during periods of no sunlight. The results show that Antarctic winter sea ice provides 10 times more bromocarbons to the atmosphere than Southern Ocean waters, and substantially more than summer sea ice. The inclusion of these measurements in a global climate model indicates that the emitted bromocarbons will disperse throughout the troposphere in the southern hemisphere and through photochemical degradation to bromine atoms, contribute ~10% to the tropospheric reactive bromine budget. Combined together, our results suggest that winter sea ice could potentially be an important source of atmospheric bromine with implications for atmospheric chemistry and climate at a hemispheric scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Broadband radiometric measurements from GPS satellites reveal summertime Arctic Ocean Albedo decreases more rapidly than sea ice recedes

Abstract New measurements from the Arctic ± 40 days around the summer solstice show reflected sunlight from north of 80°N decreases 20–35%. Arctic sea ice coverage decreases 7–9% over this same time period (as reported by the NSIDC) implying Arctic sea ice albedo decreases in addition to the sea ice receding. Similar Antarctic measurements provide a baseline to which Arctic measurements are compared. The Antarctic reflected sunlight south of 80°S is up to 30% larger than the Arctic reflectance and is symmetric around the solstice implying constant Antarctic reflectivity. Arctic reflected sunlight 20 days after solstice is > 100W/m 2 less than Antarctic reflected sunlight. For perspective, this is enough heat to melt > 1 mm/hour of ice. This finding should be compared with climate models and in reanalysis data sets to further quantify sea ice albedo’s role in Arctic Amplification. The measurements were made with previously unpublished pixelated radiometers on Global Positioning System satellites from 2014 to 2019. The GPS orbits give each radiometer instantaneous and continuous views of 37% of the Earth, two daily full views of the Arctic and Antarctic. Furthermore, the GPS constellation gives full-time full-Earth coverage that may provide data that complements existing limited field of view instruments that provide a less synoptic Earth view.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Adsorption of basic Red 46 using sea mango (Cerbera odollam) based activated carbon

Sea mango or Cerbera Odollam is another source of carbonaceous material that can be found abundantly in Malaysia. In this research, it is used as a new agricultural source of activated carbon. Sea mango activated carbon was prepared by chemical activation using potassium hydroxide (KOH). The sea mango was soaked in KOH at impregnation ratio of 1:1 and followed by carbonization at temperature of 600°C for 1 hour. The sample was then characterized using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) for surface morphology, while Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) was used to study the surface area. The result shown that sea mango activated carbon (SMAC) developed new pores on its surface and the BET surface area measured was 451.87 m{sup 2}/g. The SMAC performance was then tested for the removal of Basic Red 46 in batch process. The removal of Basic Red 46 (50 mg/L, natural pH, 0.1 g SMAC) was more than 99% in 15 minutes where it reached equilibrium in 30 minutes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coping with Starvation: Contrasting Lipidomic Dynamics in the Cells of Two Sacoglossan Sea Slugs Incorporating Stolen Plastids from the Same Macroalga

Abstract Several species of sacoglossan sea slugs are able to sequester chloroplasts from algae and incorporate them into their cells. However, the ability to maintain functional “stolen” plastids (kleptoplasts) can vary significantly within the Sacoglossa, giving species different capacities to withstand periods of food shortage. The present study provides an insight on the comparative shifts experienced by the lipidome of two sacoglossan sea slug species, Elysia viridis (long-term retention of functional chloroplasts) and Placida dendritica (retention of non-functional chloroplasts). A hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry approach was employed to screen the lipidome of specimens from both species feeding on the macroalga Codium tomentosum and after 1-week of starvation. The lipidome of E. viridis was generally unaffected by the absence of food, while that of P. dendritica varied significantly. The retention of functional chloroplasts by E. viridis cells allows this species to endure periods of food shortage, while in P. dendritica a significant reduction in the amount of main lipids was the consequence of the consumption of its own mass to endure starvation. The large proportion of ether phospholipids (plasmalogens) in both sea slug species suggests that these compounds may play a key role in chloroplast incorporation in sea slug cells and/or be involved in the reduction of the oxidative stress resulting from the presence of kleptoplasts.

Rey, Felisa↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hall viscosity of the composite-fermion Fermi seas for fermions and bosons

The Hall viscosity has been proposed as a topological property of incompressible fractional quantum Hall states and can be evaluated as Berry curvature. This paper reports on the Hall viscosities of composite-fermion Fermi seas at ν = 1/m, where m is even for fermions and odd for bosons. A well-defined value for the Hall viscosity is not obtained by viewing the 1/m composite-fermion Fermi seas as the n → ∞ limit of the Jain ν = n/(nm ± 1) states, whose Hall viscosities (±n + m)ℏρ/4 (ρ is the two-dimensional density) approach ±∞ in the limit n → ∞. A direct calculation shows that the Hall viscosities of the composite-fermion Fermi sea states are finite and also relatively stable with system size variation, although they are not topologically quantized in the entire τ space. Here, I find that the ν = 1/2 composite-fermion Fermi sea wave function for a square torus yields a Hall viscosity that is expected from particle-hole symmetry and is also consistent with the orbital spin of 1/2 for Dirac composite fermions. I compare my numerical results with some theoretical conjectures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2015

Plants mediate soil organic matter decomposition in response to sea level rise

Abstract Tidal marshes have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2–5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter ( SOM ) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal marshes become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated relative sea level rise ( RSLR ). Plant growth responses to RSLR are well understood and represented in century‐scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated RSLR . Here we quantified the effects of flooding depth and duration on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted field‐based mesocosms to experimentally manipulated relative sea level over two consecutive growing seasons. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO 2 efflux, with plant‐ and SOM ‐derived CO 2 separated via δ 13 CO 2 . Despite the dominant paradigm that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM decomposition in the absence of plants was not sensitive to flooding depth and duration. The presence of plants had a dramatic effect on SOM decomposition, increasing SOM ‐derived CO 2 flux by up to 267% and 125% (in 2012 and 2013, respectively) compared to unplanted controls in the two growing seasons. Furthermore, plant stimulation of SOM decomposition was strongly and positively related to plant biomass and in particular aboveground biomass. We conclude that SOM decomposition rates are not directly driven by relative sea level and its effect on oxygen diffusion through soil, but indirectly by plant responses to relative sea level. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for models of SOM accumulation and surface elevation change in response to accelerated RSLR .

Mueller, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2017

CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of the ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.

Hunke, Elizabeth↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Convection and Air–Sea Interactions over the Tropical Oceans: Scientific Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

Over the past thirty years, the scientific community has made considerable progress in understanding and predicting tropical convection and air-sea interactions, thanks to sustained investments in extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations, targeted field experiments, advances in numerical modeling, and vastly improved computational resources and observing technologies. Those investments would not have been fruitful as isolated advancements without the collaborative effort of the atmospheric convection and air-sea interaction research communities. In this spirit, a U.S. and International CLIVAR-sponsored workshop on “Atmospheric convection and air-sea interactions over the tropical oceans” was held May 7-9, 2019 in Boulder, CO. The 90 participants were observational and modeling experts from the atmospheric convection and air-sea interactions communities with varying degrees of experience, from early-career researchers and students to senior scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Effects of Sea Spray on the Dynamics and Microphysics of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

The effect of sea spray particles (SSP) on the intensity and microphysical structure of an idealized tropical cyclone (TC) is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with a new spectral bin microphysics package. The SSP size distribution in the hurricane boundary layer is calculated using a Lagrangian–Eulerian bin-microphysics model (LEM) with high spatial resolution and extremely high drop size resolution. Sea spray ascending in updrafts within the eyewall of a TC dramatically increases the concentration of cloud drops within a wide range of sizes and decreases the effective drop radius to the values typical of polluted continental clouds. At the same time, the presence of spray drops of a few hundred microns in radii trigger intense rain just above cloud base. As a result, sea spray creates clouds that have a unique combination of maritime and continental properties. Outside the eyewall, clouds remain extremely maritime. SSP are shown to increase substantially the maximum vertical velocity, the cloud water content, and the mass contents of ice particles within the eyewall. As a result, SSP lead to TC intensification, axis symmetrization, and a decrease in eyewall radius. We found a new mechanism where wind-generated sea spray particles invigorate the inner cloud bands by nucleating more cloud droplets, which leads to more water vapor condensation and greater latent heating. The dependence of this process on surface wind speed constitutes a positive feedback loop that can lead to higher hurricane intensity. The results of simulations of cloud microstructure in the hurricane eyewall are supported by observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Preconditioning of the Weddell Sea Polynya by the Ocean Mesoscale and Dense Water Overflows

Abstract The Weddell Sea polynya is a large opening in the open-ocean sea ice cover associated with intense deep convection in the ocean. A necessary condition to form and maintain a polynya is the presence of a strong subsurface heat reservoir. This study investigates the processes that control the stratification and hence the buildup of the subsurface heat reservoir in the Weddell Sea. To do so, a climate model run for 200 years under preindustrial forcing with two eddying resolutions in the ocean (0.25° CM2.5 and 0.10° CM2.6) is investigated. Over the course of the simulation, CM2.6 develops two polynyas in the Weddell Sea, while CM2.5 exhibits quasi-continuous deep convection but no polynyas, exemplifying that deep convection is not a sufficient condition for a polynya to occur. CM2.5 features a weaker subsurface heat reservoir than CM2.6 owing to weak stratification associated with episodes of gravitational instability and enhanced vertical mixing of heat, resulting in an erosion of the reservoir. In contrast, in CM2.6, the water column is more stably stratified, allowing the subsurface heat reservoir to build up. The enhanced stratification in CM2.6 arises from its refined horizontal grid spacing and resolution of topography, which allows, in particular, a better representation of the restratifying effect by transient mesoscale eddies and of the overflows of dense waters along the continental slope.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Air–Sea Turbulent Heat Fluxes in Climate Models and Observational Analyses: What Drives Their Variability?

A traditional view is that the ocean outside of the tropics responds passively to atmosphere forcing, which implies that air–sea heat fluxes are mainly driven by atmosphere variability. This paper tests this viewpoint using state-of-the-art air–sea turbulent heat flux observational analyses and a climate model run at different resolutions. It is found herein that in midlatitude ocean frontal zones the variability of air–sea heat fluxes is not predominantly driven by the atmosphere variations but instead is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations arising from intrinsic oceanic variability. Meanwhile in most of the tropics and subtropics wind is the dominant driver of heat flux variability, and atmosphere humidity is mainly important in higher latitudes. The predominance of ocean forcing of heat fluxes found in frontal regions occurs on scales of around 700 km or less. Spatially smoothing the data to larger scales results in the traditional atmosphere-driving case, while filtering to retain only small scales of 5° or less leads to ocean forcing of heat fluxes over most of the globe. All observational analyses examined (1° OAFlux; 0.25° J-OFURO3; 0.25° SeaFlux) show this general behavior. A standard resolution (1°) climate model fails to reproduce the midlatitude, small-scale ocean forcing of heat flux: refining the ocean grid to resolve eddies (0.1°) gives a more realistic representation of ocean forcing but the variability of both SST and of heat flux is too high compared to observational analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effect of atmospheric transmissivity on model and observational estimates of the sea ice albedo feedback

The sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) is the product of the ice sensitivity (IS) – how much the surface albedo in sea-ice regions changes as the planet warms– and the radiative sensitivity (RS) – how much the top of atmosphere radiation changes as the surface albedo changes. We demonstrate that the RS calculated from radiative kernels in climate models is reproduced from calculations using the “approximate partial radiative perturbation” method that uses the climatological radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the assumption that the atmosphere is isotropic to shortwave radiation. This method facilitates the comparison of RS from satellite-based estimates of climatological radiative fluxes with RS estimates across a full suite of coupled climate models and, thus, allows model evaluation of a quantity important in characterizing the climate impact of sea ice concentration changes. The satellite based RS is within the model range of RS that differs by a factor of two across climate models in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Observed trends in Arctic sea ice are used to estimate IS which, in conjunction with the satellite-based RS yields an SIAF of 0.16 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1. This Arctic SIAF estimate suggests a modest amplification of future global surface temperature change by approximately 14% relative to a climate system with no SIAF. We calculate the global albedo feedback in climate models using model specific RS and IS and find a model mean feedback parameter of 0.37 W m-2 K-1 which is 40% larger than the IPCC AR5 estimate based on using RS calculated from radiative kernel calculations in a single climate model.

Arctic, Antarctic, climate change, Climate & Earth↗

DOE OSTI2018

The KLIWAS North Sea Climatology. Part II: Assessment against Global Reanalyses

Observational reference datasets are needed in atmosphere and ocean for quality assessments of climate models and for the evaluation of atmospheric reanalyses. To meet this demand on the regional scale, the Climate Water Navigation (KLIWAS) North Sea climatology (KNSC) was developed. This paper uses KNSC to assess the quality of five atmospheric reanalysis products [ERA-40; ERA-Interim; NCEP-1; 20CR, version 2 (20CRv2); and MERRA] over the North Sea from 1979 to 2001. Differences in sea level pressure (2-m air temperature) can be found in coastal regions for ERA-40/ERA-Interim and MERRA, and are more pronounced during positive (negative) phases of the NAO. 20CRv2 shows biases over the entire North Sea and all seasons of several hectopascals. ERA-40 and ERA-Interim show a negative 2-m air temperature bias relative to KNSC along the coastal mainland of Europe, especially during winter months, possibly a result of a remaining land influence. Mean differences result from winter and fall, mostly remaining within measurement uncertainties. Despite the upgrades in the model setup, ERA-Interim shows negligible differences from ERA-40. 20CRv2 and MERRA show positive (negative) biases during the summer (winter) half year. NCEP-1 follows ERA-40/ERA-Interim but mostly with slightly higher differences. All five reanalyses reproduce the decadal variability and climate shift signals present in KNSC fields. Overall, only 20CRv2 has to be considered as clearly unsatisfactorily regarding biases, MAE, and RMSE compared to all other datasets investigated. This study suggests that similar intercomparison studies, performed over other parts of the world’s oceans, especially coastal regions, can be very helpful in identifying shortcomings in atmospheric reanalysis products.

Engineering↗