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At least 739 records · Page 41

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Inverse regression for ridge recovery: a data-driven approach for parameter reduction in computer experiments

Parameter reduction can enable otherwise infeasible design and uncertainty studies with modern computational science models that contain several input parameters. In statistical regression, techniques for sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) use data to reduce the predictor dimension of a regression problem. A computational scientist hoping to use SDR for parameter reduction encounters a problem: a computer prediction is best represented by a deterministic function of the inputs, so data comprised of computer simulation queries fail to satisfy the SDR assumptions. To address this problem, here we interpret SDR methods sliced inverse regression (SIR) and sliced average variance estimation (SAVE) as estimating the directions of a ridge function, which is a composition of a low-dimensional linear transformation with a nonlinear function. Within this interpretation, SIR and SAVE estimate matrices of integrals whose column spaces are contained in the ridge directions’ span; we analyze and numerically verify convergence of these column spaces as the number of computer model queries increases. Moreover, we show example functions that are not ridge functions but whose inverse conditional moment matrices are low-rank. Consequently, the computational scientist should beware when using SIR and SAVE for parameter reduction, since SIR and SAVE may mistakenly suggest that truly important directions are unimportant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber Risk Considerations for Nuclear Digital I&C Systems

Many engineers and scientists researching modeling and analysis methods for nuclear energy advancement are focused on proof-of-concept and early-stage development for new reactor designs. Since instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are traditionally developed later in the systems engineering lifecycle, researchers may be unfamiliar with modern digital technology used in these I&C systems. It is even more likely that they are unfamiliar with the cyber risks associated with them. This paper provides a brief overview of nuclear digital I&C systems before examining the importance of cyber risk management at nuclear reactors and the benefits of including Cyber-Informed Engineering throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. The primary goal is for engineers and scientists to develop a mindset that incorporates cybersecurity as another discipline alongside safety when designing and developing new technologies, regardless of technology readiness level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. Furthermore, the lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Process-informed adsorbent design guidelines for direct air capture

Direct air capture using solid adsorbents is a proven technology critical to reducing our net greenhouse gas emissions to zero and beyond. Currently, academic research into the technology mainly focuses on the development of new adsorbents. However, there is a discord between the adsorbent design and process performance. Many materials scientists focus on maximising metrics such as the CO 2 capacity of their adsorbent. Here, we combine detailed process modelling, machine learning, and extensive global sensitivity analysis, which entails varying all of the model parameters together, on a direct air capture process to show that the dry CO 2 adsorption capacity does not influence process performance for an amine-functionalised adsorbent operating in a temperature vacuum swing adsorption (TVSA) process, while it is important in a steam-assisted TVSA (S-TVSA) process. In fact, adsorption kinetics, density, and thermal conductivity are all critical attributes to obtaining a low energy penalty and reduced costs. The analysis also highlights the importance of heat transfer, directing process engineers to (alternative) adsorber designs that maximise this. By an in-depth evaluation of how process performance indicators are affected by materials properties and process operating parameters, this work provides guidance to both material scientists and process engineers towards the design of a “unicorn adsorbent” and intensified DAC processes. This will improve the performance of solid adsorbent direct air capture and help drive down the costs of this vital technology to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lessons to be learned from a contentious challenge to mainstream radiobiological science (the linear no-threshold theory of genetic mutations)

There are both statistically valid and invalid reasons why scientists with differing default hypotheses can disagree in high-profile situations. Examples can be found in recent correspondence in this journal, which may offer lessons for resolving challenges to mainstream science, particularly when adherents of a minority view attempt to elevate the status of outlier studies and/or claim that self-interest explains the acceptance of the dominant theory. Edward J. Calabrese and I have been debating the historical origins of the linear no-threshold theory (LNT) of carcinogenesis and its use in the regulation of ionizing radiation. Professor Calabrese, a supporter of hormesis, has charged a committee of scientists with misconduct in their preparation of a 1956 report on the genetic effects of atomic radiation. Specifically he argues that the report mischaracterized the LNT research record and suppressed calculations of some committee members. After reviewing the available scientific literature, I found that the contemporaneous evidence overwhelmingly favored a (genetics) LNT and that no calculations were suppressed. Calabrese's claims about the scientific record do not hold up primarily because of lack of attention to statistical analysis. Ironically, outlier studies were more likely to favor supra-linearity, not sub-linearity. Finally, the claim of investigator bias, which underlies Calabrese's accusations about key studies, is based on misreading of text. Attention to ethics charges, early on, may help seed a counter narrative explaining the community's adoption of a default hypothesis and may help focus attention on valid evidence and any real weaknesses in the dominant paradigm. - Highlights: • Edward J Calabrese has made a contentious challenge to mainstream radiobiological science. • Such challenges should not be neglected, lest they enter the political arena without review. • Key genetic studies from the 1940s, challenged by Calabrese, were found consistent and unbiased. • A 1956 genetics report did not hide estimates and does not need investigation for misconduct. • The scientific record was strong for a no-threshold, linear genetic response to radiation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Risk to ecological resources following remediation can be due mainly to increased resource value of successful restoration: A case study from the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

Several nations are faced with the need to remediate large contaminated sites following World War II, the Cold War, and abandoned industrial sites, and to return them to productive land uses. In the United States, the Department of Energy (DOE) has the largest cleanup challenge, and its Hanford Site in the state of Washington has the most extensive and most expensive cleanup task. Ideally, the risk to ecological resources on remediation sites is evaluated before, during, and after remediation, and the risk from, or damage to, ecological resources from contaminants should be lower following remediation. In this paper, we report the risk to ecological resources before, during, and as a consequence of remediation on contaminated units requiring cleanup, and then examine the causes for changes in risk by evaluating 56 cleanup evaluation units (EUs) at the Hanford Site. In this case, remediation includes a restoration phase. In general, the risk to ecological and eco-cultural resources is currently not discernible or low at most contaminated units, increases during remediation, and decreases thereafter. Remediation often causes physical disruption to ecosystems as it reduces the risk from exposure to contaminants. Most new remediation projects at the Hanford Site include ecological restoration. Ecological restoration results in the potential for the presence of higher quality resources after remediation than currently exists on these contaminated lands and facilities. Although counter-intuitive, our evaluation of the risk to ecological resources following remediation indicated that a significant percentage of units (61%) will be at increased risk in the post-remediation period. This increased risk is due to DOE's successful remediation and restoration that results in a higher percent of native vegetation and higher ecological value on the sites in the post-remediation period than before. These newly-created resources can then be at risk from post-remediation activities. Risks to these new higher quality resources include the potential for spread of invasive species and of noxious grasses used in previous cleanup actions, disruption of ecosystems (including those with state or federally listed species and unique ecosystems), compaction of soil, use of pesticides to control invasive species, and the eventual need for continued monitoring activities. Thus, by greatly improving the existing habitat and health of eco-receptors, and maintaining habitat corridors between high quality habitats, the ecological resources in the post-remediated units are at risk unless care is taken to protect them. Many of the negative effects of both remediation and future monitoring (or other future land uses) can be avoided by planning and management early in the remediation process. We suggest DOE and other agencies convene a panel of managers, remediation scientists, regulators, environmental and ecological scientists, Native Americans, economists, and the public to develop a generic list of performance metrics for the restoration phase of remediation, including evaluation of success, which could be applied across the DOE complex.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A characterization of workflow management systems for extreme-scale applications

We present that the automation of the execution of computational tasks is at the heart of improving scientific productivity. Over the last years, scientific workflows have been established as an important abstraction that captures data processing and computation of large and complex scientific applications. By allowing scientists to model and express entire data processing steps and their dependencies, workflow management systems relieve scientists from the details of an application and manage its execution on a computational infrastructure. As the resource requirements of today’s computational and data science applications that process vast amounts of data keep increasing, there is a compelling case for a new generation of advances in high-performance computing, commonly termed as extreme-scale computing, which will bring forth multiple challenges for the design of workflow applications and management systems. This paper presents a novel characterization of workflow management systems using features commonly associated with extreme-scale computing applications. We classify 15 popular workflow management systems in terms of workflow execution models, heterogeneous computing environments, and data access methods. Finally, the paper also surveys workflow applications and identifies gaps for future research on the road to extreme-scale workflows and management systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performance characterization of scientific workflows for the optimal use of Burst Buffers

Scientific discoveries are significantly rely on the analysis of large volumes of data from observations and simulations of complex phenomena. Scientists compose the complex analyses as workflows and execute them on large-scale HPC systems. The workflow structures are in contrast with monolithic single simulations that have often been the primary use case on HPC systems. At the same time, new storage paradigms such as Burst Buffers are becoming available on HPC platforms. In this paper, we analyze the performance characteristics of a Burst Buffer and two representative scientific workflows with the aim of optimizing the usage of a Burst Buffer, extending our previous analyses (Daley et al., 2016). Our key contributions are (a) developing a performance analysis methodology pertinent to Burst Buffers, (b) improving the use of a Burst Buffer in workflows with bandwidth-sensitive and metadata-sensitive I/O workloads, (c) highlighting the key data management challenges when incorporating a Burst Buffer in the studied scientific workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Addressing ecological effects of radiation on populations and ecosystems to improve protection of the environment against radiation: Agreed statements from a Consensus Symposium

This paper reports the output of a consensus symposium organized by the International Union of Radioecology in November 2015. The symposium gathered an academically diverse group of 30 scientists to consider the still debated ecological impact of radiation on populations and ecosystems. Stimulated by the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters' accidental contamination of the environment, there is increasing interest in developing environmental radiation protection frameworks. Scientific research conducted in a variety of laboratory and field settings has improved our knowledge of the effects of ionizing radiation on the environment. However, the results from such studies sometimes appear contradictory and there is disagreement about the implications for risk assessment. The Symposium discussions therefore focused on issues that might lead to different interpretations of the results, such as laboratory versus field approaches, organism versus population and ecosystemic inference strategies, dose estimation approaches and their significance under chronic exposure conditions. The participating scientists, from across the spectrum of disciplines and research areas, extending also beyond the traditional radioecology community, successfully developed a constructive spirit directed at understanding discrepancies. From the discussions, the group has derived seven consensus statements related to environmental protection against radiation, which are supplemented with some recommendations. Each of these statements is contextualized and discussed in view of contributing to the orientation and integration of future research, the results of which should yield better consensus on the ecological impact of radiation and consolidate suitable approaches for efficient radiological protection of the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In situ feature analysis for large-scale multiphase flow simulations

The study of multiphase flow is essential for designing chemical reactors such as fluidized bed reactors (FBR), as a detailed understanding of hydrodynamics is critical for optimizing reactor performance and stability. An FBR allows scientists to conduct different types of chemical reactions involving multiphase materials, especially interaction between gas and solids. During such complex chemical processes, the formation of void regions in the reactor, generally termed as bubbles, is an important phenomenon. The study of these bubbles has a deep implication in predicting the reactor’s overall efficiency. But physical experiments needed to understand bubble dynamics are costly and non-trivial due to the technical difficulties involved and harsh working conditions of the reactors. Therefore, to study such chemical processes and bubble dynamics, a state-of-the-art computational simulation MFIX-Exa is being developed. Despite the proven accuracy of MFIX-Exa in modeling bubbling phenomena, the large-scale output data prohibits the use of traditional post hoc analysis capabilities in both storage and I/O time. Herein, to address these issues and allow the application scientists to explore the bubble dynamics in an efficient and timely manner, we have developed an end-to-end analytics pipeline that enables in situ detection of bubbles, followed by a flexible post hoc visual exploration methodology of bubble dynamics. The proposed method enables interactive analysis of bubbles, along with quantification of several bubble characteristics, enabling experts to understand the bubble interactions in detail. Positive feedback from the experts has indicated the efficacy of the proposed approach for exploring bubble dynamics in very-large-scale multiphase flow simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Review of ingot niobium as a material for superconducting radiofrequency accelerating cavities

As a result of collaboration between Jefferson Lab and niobium manufacturer Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineração (CBMM), ingot niobium was explored as a possible material for superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavity fabrication. The first single cell cavity from large-grain high purity niobium was fabricated and successfully tested at Jefferson Lab in 2004. This work triggered research activities in other SRF laboratories around the world. The large-grain (LG) niobium became not only an interesting alternative material for cavity builders, but also material scientists and surface scientists were eager to participate in the development of this technology. Many single cell cavities made from material of different suppliers have been tested successfully and several multi-cell cavities have shown performances comparable to the best cavities made from standard fine-grain niobium. Several 9-cell cavities fabricated by Research Instruments and tested at DESY exceeded the best performing fine grain cavities with a record accelerating gradient of E acc =45.6 MV/m. The quality factor of those cavities was also higher than that of fine-grain (FG) cavities processed with the same methods. Such performance levels push the state-of-the art of SRF technology and are of great interest for future accelerators. This contribution reviews the development of ingot niobium technology and highlights some of the differences compared to standard FG material and opportunities for further developments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advances in X-ray optics: From metrology characterization to wavefront sensing-based optimization of active optics

Experiments using high brightness X-rays are on the forefront of science due to the vast variety of knowledge they can provide. New Synchrotron Radiation (SR) and Free Electron Laser (FEL) light sources provide unique tools for advanced studies using X-rays. Top-level scientists from around the world are attracted to these beamlines to perform unprecedented experiments. High brightness, low emittance light sources allow beamline scientists the possibility to dream up cutting-edge experimental stations. X-ray optics play a key role in bringing the beam from the source to the experimental stations. This paper explores the recent developments in X-ray optics. It touches on simulations, diagnostics, metrology and adaptive optics, giving an overview of the role X-ray optics have played in the recent past. It will also touch on future developments for one of the most active field in the X-ray science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Classification of events from α -induced reactions in the MUSIC detector via statistical and ML methods

The Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber (MUSIC) detector is typically used to measure nuclear reaction cross sections relevant for nuclear astrophysics, fusion studies, and other applications. From the MUSIC data produced in one experiment scientists carefully extract an order of 10 3 events of interest from about 10 9 total events, where each event can be represented by an 18-dimensional vector. However, the standard data classification process is based on expert driven, manually intensive data analysis techniques that require several months to identify patterns and classify the relevant events from the collected data. Here, to address this issue, we present a method for the classification of events originating from specific α-induced reactions by combining statistical and machine learning methods that require significantly less input from the domain scientist, relative to the standard technique. Here, we applied the new method to two experimental data sets and compared our results with those obtained using traditional methods. With few exceptions, the number of events classified by our method agrees within ±20% with the results obtained using traditional methods. With the present method, which is the first of its kind for the MUSIC data, we have established the foundation for the automated extraction of physical events of interest from experiments using the MUSIC detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗