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NASA NTRS2016

Compiling a Comprehensive EVA Training Dataset for NASA Astronauts

Training for a spacewalk or extravehicular activity (EVA) is considered a hazardous duty for NASA astronauts. This places astronauts at risk for decompression sickness as well as various musculoskeletal disorders from working in the spacesuit. As a result, the operational and research communities over the years have requested access to EVA training data to supplement their studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the comprehensive EVA training data set that was compiled from multiple sources by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) epidemiologists to investigate musculoskeletal injuries. The EVA training dataset does not contain any medical data, rather it only documents when EVA training was performed, by whom and other details about the session. The first activities practicing EVA maneuvers in water were performed at the Neutral Buoyancy Simulator (NBS) at the Marshall Spaceflight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. This facility opened in 1967 and was used for EVA training until the early Space Shuttle program days. Although several photographs show astronauts performing EVA training in the NBS, records detailing who performed the training and the frequency of training are unavailable. Paper training records were stored within the NBS after it was designated as a National Historic Landmark in 1985 and closed in 1997, but significant resources would be needed to identify and secure these records, and at this time LSAH has not pursued acquisition of these early training records. Training in the NBS decreased when the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, opened the Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF) in 1980. Early training records from the WETF consist of 11 hand-written dive logbooks compiled by individual workers that were digitized at the request of LSAH. The WETF was integral in the training for Space Shuttle EVAs until its closure in 1998. The Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) at the Sonny Carter Training Facility near JSC opened in March 1997 and is the current site for US EVA training. Other space agencies also have used water to simulate weightlessness and train for EVAs. Russia has a training facility similar to the NBL named the Hydro Lab. The Hydro Lab began operations at the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center (GCTC) in 1980 and has been used extensively to the present. Although a majority of training in the Hydro Lab uses the Russian Orlan suit, a small number of sessions have been conducted using a NASA suit. The Japanese Weightlessness Environment Test System (WETS) went into service at the Tsukuba Space Center in 1997 but was closed in 2011 due to extensive earthquake damage. Several sessions were performed using a NASA suit, but these sessions were short and considered "development" runs. LSAH has assembled records from the WETF, NBL and Hydro Lab. Recording of the EVA training data has changed considerably from 1967 to present. The goal of early record keeping was to track use of hardware components, and the person involved was treated as a suited operator, not as a focus of interest. Records from the past two decades are fairly precise with the person, date, suit type and size noted. On occasion the length of the session was listed, but this data is not included on all records. Records were merged from data sources and extensive cleaning of the records was required since the multiple sources frequently overlapped and duplicated records. To date the LSAH EVA training dataset includes over 12,500 EVA training sessions performed by NASA astronauts since 1981. The following variables are included for most records: Name, Sex, Event date, Event name, HUT type, HUT size, Facility, and Estimated run time. For a smaller subset of records, the following variables are available: Actual run time, Time inverted, and the suit components Waist bearing type, Shoulder harness, Shoulder pads, and Teflon inserts. The LSAH dataset is currently the most complete resource for data regarding EVA training sessions performed by NASA astronauts. However, it is not 100 percent complete since the WETS (Japan) and NBS (Marshall) training facility data were not included. This dataset has been compiled by LSAH to study the relationship of EVA training to musculoskeletal injuries but has many other non-medical applications. This dataset can be provided to other groups in order to respond to program and research questions with appropriate board approvals.

Laughlin, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1964

The Effect of Information Feedback Upon Psychophysical Judgments

An analysis was made of the role of presentation schedules and information feedback on performance in a forced-choice signal detection task. The experimental results indicate that information feedback facilitates performance, but only for certain presentation schedules. The present study was designed to assess performance in a signal detection task under two conditions of information feedback. In the I-condition, S was told on each trial whether his detection response was correct or incorrect; in the !-condition S was given no feedback regarding the correctness of his response. The task involved a 2-response, forced-choice auditory detection problem. On each trial 2 temporal intervals were defined and S was required to report which interval he believed contained the signal; i. e., in one interval a tone burst in a background of white noise was presented, while the other interval contained only white noise. A trial will be denoted as s1 or s2, depending on whether the signal was embedded in the 1st or 2nd interval; the S's response will be denoted A1 or A2 to indicate which interval he reported contained the signal. The probability of an s1 trial will be denoted as y. In this study two values of y were used (.50 and.75) and, as indicated above, two conditions of information feedback. Thus there were 4 experimental conditions (501, · 50I, 751, 75I); each S was run under all 4 conditions. Method Gaussian noise was presented binaurally in S's headphones throughout a test session and the signal was a 1000-cps sinusoid tone; the tone was presented for 100 msec. including equal fall and rise times of 20 msec. The ratio of signal energy to noise power in a unit bandwidth was 2.9, and was constant throughout the study. The. S was seated before a stimulus display board. On each trial a red warning light was flashed for 100 msec. Two amber lights then came on successively each for 1 sec.; these lights defined the 2 observation intervals. The onset of the signal occurred 500 msec. after the onset of one of the observation intervals. After the second amber light went off, S indicated his response by pressing 1 of 2 wand switches under cards reading "1st interval" and "2nd interval." For the !-condition a green light flashed on above the correct response key after S's response; the green light was omitted in the !-condition. Each trial lasted 6 sec. The S's were 12 male college students with normal hearing. They were run for two practice sessions followed by 20 test sessions. Test sessions were run on consecutive days, 350 trials/day. Each day S ran on 1 of the 4 experimental conditions; in successive 4-day blocks S ran one day on each of the 4 experimental conditions in a random order. Thus, over 20 days each of the experimental conditions was repeated 5 times.

Atkinson, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ice Accretions and Full-Scale Iced Aerodynamic Performance Data for a Two-Dimensional NACA 23012 Airfoil

This report documents the data collected during the large wind tunnel campaigns conducted as part of the SUNSET project (StUdies oN Scaling EffecTs due to ice) also known as the Ice-Accretion Aerodynamics Simulation study: a joint effort by NASA, the Office National d'Etudes et Recherches Aérospatiales (ONERA), and the University of Illinois. These data form a benchmark database of full-scale ice accretions and corresponding ice-contaminated aerodynamic performance data for a two-dimensional (2D) NACA 23012 airfoil. The wider research effort also included an analysis of ice-contaminated aerodynamics that categorized ice accretions by aerodynamic effects and an investigation of subscale, low- Reynolds-number ice-contaminated aerodynamics for the NACA 23012 airfoil. The low-Reynolds-number investigation included an analysis of the geometric fidelity needed to reliably assess aerodynamic effects of airfoil icing using artificial ice shapes. Included herein are records of the ice accreted during campaigns in NASA Glenn Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). Two different 2D NACA 23012 airfoil models were used during these campaigns; an 18-in. (45.7-cm) chord (subscale) model and a 72-in. (182.9-cm) chord (full-scale) model. The aircraft icing conditions used during these campaigns were selected from the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 25 Appendix C icing envelopes. The records include the test conditions, photographs of the ice accreted, tracings of the ice, and ice depth measurements. Model coordinates and pressure tap locations are also presented. Also included herein are the data recorded during a wind tunnel campaign conducted in the F1 Subsonic Pressurized Wind Tunnel of ONERA. The F1 tunnel is a pressured, high- Reynolds-number facility that could accommodate the full-scale (72-in. (182.9-cm) chord) 2D NACA 23012 model. Molds were made of the ice accreted during selected test runs of the full-scale model in the IRT. From these molds, castings were made that closely replicated the features of the accreted ice. The castings were then mounted on the full-scale model in the F1 tunnel, and aerodynamic performance measurements were made using model surface pressure taps, the facility force balance system, and a large wake rake designed specifically for these tests. Tests were run over a range of Reynolds and Mach numbers. For each run, the model was rotated over a range of angles-of-attack that included airfoil stall. The benchmark data collected during these campaigns were, and continue to be, used for various purposes. The full-scale data form a unique, ice-accretion and associated aerodynamic performance dataset that can be used as a reference when addressing concerns regarding the use of subscale ice-accretion data to assess full-scale icing effects. Further, the data may be used in the development or enhancement of both ice-accretion prediction codes and computational fluid dynamic codes when applied to study the effects of icing. Finally, as was done in the wider study, the data may be used to help determine the level of geometric fidelity needed for artificial ice used to assess aerodynamic degradation due to aircraft icing. The structured, multifaceted approach used in this research effort provides a unique perspective on the aerodynamic effects of aircraft icing. The data presented in this report are available in electronic form upon formal approval by proper NASA and ONERA authorities.

Addy, Harold E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Emulator for Expensive Classification Simulators

Expensive simulators prevent any kind of meaningful analysis to be performed on the phenomena they model. To get around this problem the concept of using a statistical emulator as a surrogate representation of the simulator was introduced in the 1980's. Presently, simulators have become more and more complex and as a result running a single example on these simulators is very expensive and can take days to weeks or even months. Many new techniques have been introduced, termed criteria, which sequentially select the next best (most informative to the emulator) point that should be run on the simulator. These criteria methods allow for the creation of an emulator with only a small number of simulator runs. We follow and extend this framework to expensive classification simulators.

Ross, Jerret↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Modeling Method Improvements for SAGE III on ISS

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) via the SpaceX Dragon vehicle. A detailed thermal model of the SAGE III payload, which consists of multiple subsystems, has been developed in Thermal Desktop (TD). Many innovative analysis methods have been used in developing this model; these will be described in the paper. This paper builds on a paper presented at TFAWS 2013, which described some of the initial developments of efficient methods for SAGE III. The current paper describes additional improvements that have been made since that time. To expedite the correlation of the model to thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing, the chambers and GSE for both TVAC chambers at Langley used to test the payload were incorporated within the thermal model. This allowed the runs of TVAC predictions and correlations to be run within the flight model, thus eliminating the need for separate models for TVAC. In one TVAC test, radiant lamps were used which necessitated shooting rays from the lamps, and running in both solar and IR wavebands. A new Dragon model was incorporated which entailed a change in orientation; that change was made using an assembly, so that any potential additional new Dragon orbits could be added in the future without modification of the model. The Earth orbit parameters such as albedo and Earth infrared flux were incorporated as time-varying values that change over the course of the orbit; despite being required in one of the ISS documents, this had not been done before by any previous payload. All parameters such as initial temperature, heater voltage, and location of the payload are defined based on the case definition. For one component, testing was performed in both air and vacuum; incorporating the air convection in a submodel that was only built for the in-air cases allowed correlation of all testing to be done in a single model. These modeling improvements and more will be described and illustrated in the paper.

Liles, Kaitlin↗
NASA NTRS2015

Infrared Images of Boundary Layer Transition on the D8 Transport Configuration in the LaRC 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel

Grit, trip tape, or trip dots are routinely applied on the leading-edge regions of the fuselage, wings, tails or nacelles of wind tunnel models to trip the flow from laminar to turbulent. The thickness of the model's boundary layer is calculated for nominal conditions in the wind tunnel test to determine the effective size of the trip dots, but the flow over the model may not transition as intended for runs with different flow conditions. Temperature gradients measured with an infrared camera can be used to detect laminar to turbulent boundary layer transition on a wind tunnel model. This non-intrusive technique was used in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to visualize the behavior of the flow over a D8 transport configuration model. As the flow through the wind tunnel either increased to or decreased from the run conditions, a sufficient temperature difference existed between the air and the model to visualize the transition location (due to different heat transfer rates through the laminar and the turbulent boundary layers) for several runs in this test. Transition phenomena were visible without active temperature control in the atmospheric wind tunnel, whether the air was cooler than the model or vice-versa. However, when the temperature of the model relative to the air was purposely changed, the ability to detect transition in the infrared images was enhanced. Flow characteristics such as a wing root horseshoe vortex or the presence of fore-body vortical flows also were observed in the infrared images. The images of flow features obtained for this study demonstrate the usefulness of current infrared technology in subsonic wind tunnel tests.

Mason, Michelle L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Automated ISS Flight Utilities

During my internship at NASA Johnson Space Center, I worked in the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), where I was tasked with a number of projects focused on the automation of tasks and activities related to the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). As I worked on a number of projects, I have written short sections below to give a description for each, followed by more general remarks on the internship experience. My first project is titled "General Exposure Representation EVADOSE", also known as "GEnEVADOSE". This project involved the design and development of a C++/ ROOT framework focused on radiation exposure for extravehicular activity (EVA) planning for the ISS. The utility helps mission managers plan EVAs by displaying information on the cumulative radiation doses that crew will receive during an EVA as a function of the egress time and duration of the activity. SRAG uses a utility called EVADOSE, employing a model of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit to predict these doses, as while outside the ISS the astronauts will have less shielding from charged particles such as electrons and protons. However, EVADOSE output is cumbersome to work with, and prior to GEnEVADOSE, querying data and producing graphs of ISS trajectories and cumulative doses versus egress time required manual work in Microsoft Excel. GEnEVADOSE automates all this work, reading in EVADOSE output file(s) along with a plaintext file input by the user providing input parameters. GEnEVADOSE will output a text file containing all the necessary dosimetry for each proposed EVA egress time, for each specified EVADOSE file. It also plots cumulative dose versus egress time and the ISS trajectory, and displays all of this information in an auto-generated presentation made in LaTeX. New features have also been added, such as best-case scenarios (egress times corresponding to the least dose), interpolated curves for trajectories, and the ability to query any time in the EVADES output. As mentioned above, GEnEVADOSE makes extensive use of ROOT version 6, the data analysis framework developed at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and the code is written to the C++11 standard (as are the other projects). My second project is the Automated Mission Reference Exposure Utility (AMREU).Unlike GEnEVADOSE, AMREU is a combination of three frameworks written in both Python and C++, also making use of ROOT (and PyROOT). Run as a combination of daily and weekly cron jobs, these macros query the SRAG database system to determine the active ISS missions, and query minute-by-minute radiation dose information from ISS-TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter), one of the radiation detectors onboard the ISS. Using this information, AMREU creates a corrected data set of daily radiation doses, addressing situations where TEPC may be offline or locked up by correcting doses for days with less than 95% live time (the total amount time the instrument acquires data) by averaging the past 7 days. As not all errors may be automatically detectable, AMREU also allows for manual corrections, checking an updated plaintext file each time it runs. With the corrected data, AMREU generates cumulative dose plots for each mission, and uses a Python script to generate a flight note file (.docx format) containing these plots, as well as information sections to be filled in and modified by the space weather environment officers with information specific to the week. AMREU is set up to run without requiring any user input, and it automatically archives old flight notes and information files for missions that are no longer active. My other projects involve cleaning up a large data set from the Charged Particle Directional Spectrometer (CPDS), joining together many different data sets in order to clean up information in SRAG SQL databases, and developing other automated utilities for displaying information on active solar regions, that may be used by the space weather environment officers to monitor solar activity. I consulted my mentor Dr. Ryan Rios and Dr. Kerry Lee for project requirements and added features, and ROOT developer Edmond Offermann for advice on using the ROOT library. I also received advice and feedback from Dr. Janet Barzilla of SRAG, who tested my code. Besides these inputs, I worked independently, writing all of the code by myself. The code for all these projects is documented throughout, and I have attempted to write it in a modular format. Assuming that ROOT is updated accordingly, these codes are also Y2038-compliant (and Y10K-compliant). This allows the code to be easily referenced, modified and possibly repurposed for non-ISS missions in the future, should the necessary inputs exist. These projects have taught me a lot about coding and software design - I have become a much more skilled C++ programmer and ROOT user, and I also learned to code in Python and PyROOT (and its advantages and disadvantages compared to C++/ ROOT). Furthermore, I have learned about space radiation and radiation modeling, topics that greatly interest me as I pursue a degree in physics. Working alongside experimental physicists like Dr. Rios, I have developed a greater understanding and appreciation for experimental science, something I have always leaned towards but to which I lacked significant exposure. My work in SRAG has also given me the invaluable opportunity to witness the work environment for physicists at NASA, and what a career in academia may look like at a government laboratory such as NASA Johnson Space Center. As I continue my studies and look forward to graduate school and a future career, this experience at NASA has given me a meaningful and enjoyable opportunity to put my skills to use and see what my future career path might hold.

Offermann, Jan Tuzlic↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Dose of Reality: Radiation Analysis for Realistic Human Spacecraft

INTRODUCTION As with most computational analyses, a tradeoff exists between problem complexity, resource availability and response accuracy when modeling radiation transport from the source to a detector. The largest amount of analyst time for setting up an analysis is often spent ensuring that any simplifications made have minimal impact on the results. The vehicle shield geometry of interest is typically simplified from the original CAD design in order to reduce computation time, but this simplification requires the analyst to "re-draw" the geometry with a limited set of volumes in order to accommodate a specific radiation transport software package. The resulting low-fidelity geometry model cannot be shared with or compared to other radiation transport software packages, and the process can be error prone with increased model complexity. The work presented here demonstrates the use of the DAGMC (Direct Accelerated Geometry for Monte Carlo) Toolkit from the University of Wisconsin, to model the impacts of several space radiation sources on a CAD drawing of the US Lab module. METHODS The DAGMC toolkit workflow begins with the export of an existing CAD geometry from the native CAD to the ACIS format. The ACIS format file is then cleaned using SpaceClaim to remove small holes and component overlaps. Metadata is then assigned to the cleaned geometry file using CUBIT/Trelis from csimsoft (Registered Trademark). The DAGMC plugin script removes duplicate shared surfaces, facets the geometry to a specified tolerance, and ensures that the faceted geometry is water tight. This step also writes the material and scoring information to a standard input file format that the analyst can alter as desired prior to running the radiation transport program. The scoring results can be transformed, via python script, into a 3D format that is viewable in a standard graphics program. RESULTS The CAD model of the US Lab module of the International Space Station, inclusive of all the racks and components, was simplified to remove holes and volume overlaps. Problematic features within the drawing were also removed or repaired to prevent runtime issues. The cleaned drawing was then run through the DAGMC workflow to prepare for analysis. Pilot tests modeling transport of 1GeV proton and 800MeV/A oxygen sources show that reasonable results are converged upon in an acceptable amount of overall computation time from drawing preparation to data analysis. The FLUKA radiation transport code will next be used to model both a GCR and a trapped radiation source. These results will then be compared with measurements that have been made by the radiation instrumentation deployed inside the US Lab module. DISCUSSION Early analyses have indicated that the DAGMC workflow is a promising toolkit for running vehicle geometries of interest to NASA through multiple radiation transport codes. In addition, recent work has shown that a realistic human phantom, provided via a subcontract with the University of Florida, can be placed inside any vehicle geometry for a combinatorial analysis. This added functionality gives the user the ability to score various parameters at the organ level, and the results can then be used as input for cancer risk models.

Barzilla, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗
NASA NTRS2017

GEOS Atmospheric Model: Challenges at Exascale

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is used to simulate the multi-scale variability of the Earth's weather and climate, and is used primarily to assimilate conventional and satellite-based observations for weather forecasting and reanalysis. In addition, assimilations coupled to an ocean model are used for longer-term forecasting (e.g., El Nino) on seasonal to interannual times-scales. The GMAO's research activities, including system development, focus on numerous time and space scales, as detailed on the GMAO website, where they are tabbed under five major themes: Weather Analysis and Prediction; Seasonal-Decadal Analysis and Prediction; Reanalysis; Global Mesoscale Modeling, and Observing System Science. A brief description of the GEOS systems can also be found at the GMAO website. GEOS executes as a collection of earth system components connected through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ESMF layer is supplemented with the MAPL (Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Layer) software toolkit developed at the GMAO, which facilitates the organization of the computational components into a hierarchical architecture. GEOS systems run in parallel using a horizontal decomposition of the Earth's sphere into processing elements (PEs). Communication between PEs is primarily through a message passing framework, using the message passing interface (MPI), and through explicit use of node-level shared memory access via the SHMEM (Symmetric Hierarchical Memory access) protocol. Production GEOS weather prediction systems currently run at 12.5-kilometer horizontal resolution with 72 vertical levels decomposed into PEs associated with 5,400 MPI processes. Research GEOS systems run at resolutions as fine as 1.5 kilometers globally using as many as 30,000 MPI processes. Looking forward, these systems can be expected to see a 2 times increase in horizontal resolution every two to three years, as well as less frequent increases in vertical resolution. Coupling these resolution changes with increases in complexity, the computational demands on the GEOS production and research systems should easily increase 100-fold over the next five years. Currently, our 12.5 kilometer weather prediction system narrowly meets the time-to-solution demands of a near-real-time production system. Work is now in progress to take advantage of a hybrid MPI-OpenMP parallelism strategy, in an attempt to achieve a modest two-fold speed-up to accommodate an immediate demand due to increased scientific complexity and an increase in vertical resolution. Pursuing demands that require a 10- to 100-fold increases or more, however, would require a detailed exploration of the computational profile of GEOS, as well as targeted solutions using more advanced high-performance computing technologies. Increased computing demands of 100-fold will be required within five years based on anticipated changes in the GEOS production systems, increases of 1000-fold can be anticipated over the next ten years.

ESMF↗
NASA NTRS2015

Total Dust Deposition Flux During Precipitation in Toyama, Japan, in the Spring of 2009: A Sensitivity Analysis with the NASA GEOS-5 Model

We compared the observed total dust deposition fluxes during precipitation (TDP) mainly at Toyama in Japan during the period January - April 2009 with results available from four NASA GEOS-5 global model experiments. The modeled results were obtained from three previous experiments and carried out in one experiment, which were all driven by assimilated meteorology and simulating aerosol distributions for the time period. We focus mainly on the observations of two distinct TDP events, which were reported in Osada et al. (2011), at Toyama, Japan, in February (Event B) and March 2009 (Event C). Although all of our GEOS-5 simulations captured aspects of the observed TDP, we found that our low horizontal spatial resolution control experiment performed generally the worst. The other three experiments were run at a higher spatial resolution, with the first differing only in that respect from the control, the second adding imposed a prescribed corrected precipitation product, and the final experiment adding as well assimilation of aerosol optical depth based on MODIS observations. During Event C, the increased horizontal resolution could increase TDP with precipitation increase. There was no significant improvement, however, due to the imposition of the corrected precipitation product. The simulation that incorporated aerosol data assimilation performed was by far the best for this event, but even so could only reproduce less than half of the observed TDP despite the significantly increased atmospheric dust mass concentrations. All three of the high spatial resolution experiments had higher simulated precipitation at Toyama than was observed and that in the lower resolution control run. During Event B, the aerosol data assimilation run did not perform appreciably better than the other higher resolution simulations, suggesting that upstream conditions (i.e., upstream cloudiness), or vertical or horizontal misplacement of the dust plume did not allow for significant improvement in the simulated aerosol distributions. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of observed hourly precipitation and surface particulate mass concentration data suggests that the observed TDP during Event B was highly dependent on short periods of weak precipitation correlated with elevated dust surface concentrations, important details possibly not captured well in a current global model.

Dust; Wet deposition; Numerical modeling; Japan; P↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Per-Target Flux-Level Transit Injection Tests of TPS for Data Release 25

Quantifying the ability of a transiting planet survey to recover transit signals has commonly been accomplished through Monte-Carlo injection of transit signals into the observed data and subsequent running of the signal search algorithm (Gilliland et al., 2000; Weldrake et al., 2005; Burke et al., 2006). In order to characterize the performance of the Kepler pipeline (Twicken et al., 2016; Jenkins et al., 2017) on a sample of over 200,000 stars, two complementary injection and recovery tests are utilized:1. Injection of a single transit signal per target into the image or pixel-level data, hereafter referred to as pixel-level transit injection (PLTI), with subsequent processing through the Photometric Analysis (PA), Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC), Transiting Planet Search (TPS), and Data Validation (DV) modules of the Kepler pipeline. The PLTI quantification of the Kepler pipeline's completeness has been described previously by Christiansen et al. (2015, 2016); the completeness of the final SOC 9.3 Kepler pipeline acting on the Data Release 25 (DR25) light curves is described by Christiansen (2017).2. Injection of multiple transit signals per target into the normalized flux time series data with a subsequent transit search using a stream-lined version of the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) module. This test, hereafter referred to as flux-level transit injection (FLTI), is the subject of this document. By running a heavily modified version of TPS, FLTI is able to perform many injections on selected targets and determine in some detail which injected signals are recoverable. Significant numerical efficiency gains are enabled by precomputing the data conditioning steps at the onset of TPS and limiting the search parameter space (i.e., orbital period, transit duration, and ephemeris zero-point) to a small region around each injected transit signal.The PLTI test has the advantage that it follows transit signals through all processing steps of the Kepler pipeline, and the recovered signals can be further classified as planet candidates or false positives in the exact same manner as detections from the nominal (i.e., observed) pipeline run (Twicken et al., 2016, Thompson et al., in preparation). To date, the PLTI test has been the standard means of measuring pipeline completeness averaged over large samples of targets (Christiansen et al., 2015, 2016; Christiansen, 2017). However, since the PLTI test uses only one injection per target, it does not elucidate individual-target variations in pipeline completeness due to differences in stellar properties or astrophysical variability. Thus, we developed the FLTI test to provide a numerically efficient way to fully map individual targets and explore the performance of the pipeline in greater detail. The FLTI tests thereby allow a thorough validation of the pipeline completeness models (such as window function (Burke and Catanzarite, 2017a), detection efficiency (Burke Catanzarite, 2017b), etc.) across the spectrum of Kepler targets (i.e., various astrophysical phenomena and differences in instrumental noise). Tests during development of the FLTI capability revealed that there are significant target-to-target variations in the detection efficiency.

DR25↗
NASA NTRS2017

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) Surrogate Models for Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) Performance Assessment

The primary purpose of the multiPOST tool is to enable the execution of much larger sets of vehicle cases to allow for broader trade space exploration. However, this exploration is not achieved solely with the increased case throughput. The multiPOST tool is applied to carry out a Design of Experiments (DOE), which is a set of cases that have been structured to capture a maximum amount of information about the design space with minimal computational effort. The results of the DOE are then used to fit a surrogate model, ultimately enabling parametric design space exploration. The approach used for the MAV study includes both DOE and surrogate modeling. First, the primary design considerations for the vehicle were used to develop the variables and ranges for the multiPOST DOE. The final set of DOE variables were carefully selected in order to capture the desired vehicle trades and take into account any special considerations for surrogate modeling. Next, the DOE sets were executed through multiPOST. Following successful completion of the DOE cases, a manual verification trial was performed. The trial involved randomly selecting cases from the DOE set and running them by hand. The results from the human analyst's run and multiPOST were then compared to ensure that the automated runs were being executed properly. Completion of the verification trials was then followed by surrogate model fitting. After fits to the multiPOST data were successfully created, the surrogate models were used as a stand-in for POST2 to carry out the desired MAV trades. Using the surrogate models in lieu of POST2 allowed for visualization of vehicle sensitivities to the input variables as well as rapid evaluation of vehicle performance. Although the models introduce some error into the output of the trade study, they were very effective at identifying areas of interest within the trade space for further refinement by human analysts. The next section will cover all of the ground rules and assumptions associated with DOE setup and multiPOST execution. Section 3.1 gives the final DOE variables and ranges, while section 3.2 addresses the POST2 specific assumptions. The results of the verification trials are given in section 4. Section 5 gives the surrogate model fitting results, including the goodness-of-fit metrics for each fit. Finally, the MAV specific results are discussed in section 6.

Zwack, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Increasing Flight Software Reuse with OpenSatKit

In January 2015 the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) released the Core Flight System (cFS) as open source under the NASA Open Source Agreement (NOSA) license. The cFS is based on flight software (FSW) developed for 12 spacecraft spanning nearly two decades of effort and it can provide about a third of the FSW functionality for a low-earth orbiting scientific spacecraft. The cFS is a FSW framework that is portable, configurable, and extendable using a product line deployment model. However, the components are maintained separately so the user must configure, integrate, and deploy them as a cohesive functional system. This can be very challenging especially for organizations such as universities building cubesats that have minimal experience developing FSW. Supporting universities was one of the primary motivators for releasing the cFS under NOSA. This paper describes the OpenSatKit that was developed to address the cFS deployment challenges and to serve as a cFS training platform for new users. It provides a fully functional out-of-the box software system that includes NASA's cFS, Ball Aerospaceâ€"TM"s command and control system COSMOS, and a NASA dynamic simulator called 42. The kit is freely available since all of the components have been released as open source. The kit runs on a Linux platform, includes 8 cFS applications, several kit-specific applications, and built in demos illustrating how to use key application features. It also includes the software necessary to port the cFS to a Raspberry Pi and instructions for configuring COSMOS to communicate with the target. All of the demos and test scripts can be rerun unchanged with the cFS running on the Raspberry Pi. The cFS uses a 3-tiered layered architecture including a platform abstraction layer, a Core Flight Executive (cFE) middle layer, and an application layer. Similar to smart phones, the cFS application layer is the key architectural feature for userâ€"TM"s to extend the FSW functionality to meet their mission-specific requirements. The platform abstraction layer and the cFE layers go a step further than smart phones by providing a platform-agnostic Application Programmer Interface (API) that allows applications to run unchanged on different platforms. OpenSatKit can serve two significant architectural roles that will further help the adoption of the cFS and help create a community of users that can share assets. First, the kit is being enhanced to automate the integration of applications with the goal of creating a virtual cFS 'App Store'. Second, a platform certification test suite can be developed that would allow users to verify the port of the cFS to a new platform. This paper will describe the current state of these efforts and future plans.

McComas, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Increasing Flight Software Reuse with OpenSatKit

In January 2015 the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) released the Core Flight System (cFS) as open source under the NASA Open Source Agreement (NOSA) license. The cFS is based on flight software (FSW) developed for 12 spacecraft spanning nearly two decades of effort and it can provide about a third of the FSW functionality for a low-earth orbiting scientific spacecraft. The cFS is a FSW framework that is portable, configurable, and extendable using a product line deployment model. However, the components are maintained separately so the user must configure, integrate, and deploy them as a cohesive functional system. This can be very challenging especially for organizations such as universities building cubesats that have minimal experience developing FSW. Supporting universities was one of the primary motivators for releasing the cFS under NOSA. This paper describes the OpenSatKit that was developed to address the cFS deployment challenges and to serve as a cFS training platform for new users. It provides a fully functional out-of-the box software system that includes NASA's cFS, Ball Aerospace's command and control system COSMOS, and a NASA dynamic simulator called 42. The kit is freely available since all of the components have been released as open source. The kit runs on a Linux platform, includes 8 cFS applications, several kit-specific applications, and built in demos illustrating how to use key application features. It also includes the software necessary to port the cFS to a Raspberry Pi and instructions for configuring COSMOS to communicate with the target. All of the demos and test scripts can be rerun unchanged with the cFS running on the Raspberry Pi. The cFS uses a 3-tiered layered architecture including a platform abstraction layer, a Core Flight Executive (cFE) middle layer, and an application layer. Similar to smart phones, the cFS application layer is the key architectural feature for users to extend the FSW functionality to meet their mission-specific requirements. The platform abstraction layer and the cFE layers go a step further than smart phones by providing a platform-agnostic Application Programmer Interface (API) that allows applications to run unchanged on different platforms. OpenSatKit can serve two significant architectural roles that will further help the adoption of the cFS and help create a community of users that can share assets. First, the kit is being enhanced to automate the integration of applications with the goal of creating a virtual cFS "App Store".. Second, a platform certification test suite can be developed that would allow users to verify the port of the cFS to a new platform. This paper will describe the current state of these efforts and future plans.

Computer Programming and Software↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1 File Specification: GMAO Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecast Output

The NASA GMAO seasonal (9 months) and subseasonal (45 days) forecasts are produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System Version S2S-2_1. The new system replaces version S2S-1.0 described in Borovikov et al (2017), and includes upgrades to many components of the system. The atmospheric model includes an upgrade from a pre-MERRA-2 version running on a latitude-longitude grid at approx. 1 degree resolution to a current version running on a cubed sphere grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution. The important developments are related to the dynamical core (Putman et al., 2011), the moist physics (''two-moment microphysics'' of Barahona et al., 2014) and the cryosphere (Cullather et al., 2014). As in the previous GMAO S2S system, the land model is that of Koster et al (2000). GMAO S2S-2_1 now includes the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, Colarco et al., 2010) single moment interactive aerosol model that includes predictive aerosols including dust, sea salt and several species of carbon and sulfate. The previous version of GMAO S2S specified aerosol amounts from climatology, which were used to inform the atmospheric radiation only. The ocean model includes an upgrade from MOM4 to MOM5 (Griffies 2012), and continues to be run on the tripolar grid at approximately 1/2 degree resolution in the tropics with 40 vertical levels. As in S2S-1.0, the sea ice model is from the Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010). The Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) has been upgraded from the one described in Borovikov et al., 2017 to one that uses a modified version of the Penny, 2014 Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF), and now assimilates along-track altimetry. The ODAS also does a nudging to MERRA-2 SST and sea ice boundary conditions. The atmospheric data assimilation fields used to constrain the atmosphere in the ODAS have been upgraded from MERRA to a MERRA-2 like system. The system is initialized using a MERRA-2-like atmospheric reanalysis (Gelaro et al. 2017) and the GMAO S2S-2_1 ocean analysis. Additional ensemble members for forecasts are produced with initial states at 5-day intervals, with additional members based on perturbations of the atmospheric and ocean states. Both subseasonal and seasonal forecasts are submitted to the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) project, and are part of the US/Canada multimodel seasonal forecasts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/). A large suite of retrospective forecasts (''hindcasts'') have been completed, and contribute to the calculation of the model's baseline climatology and drift, anomalies from which are the basis of the seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal Forecast↗