Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Analyses”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41

The Max Launch Abort System - Concept, Flight Test, and Evolution

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is an independent engineering analysis and test organization providing support across the range of NASA programs. In 2007 NASA was developing the launch escape system for the Orion spacecraft that was evolved from the traditional tower-configuration escape systems used for the historic Mercury and Apollo spacecraft. The NESC was tasked, as a programmatic risk-reduction effort to develop and flight test an alternative to the Orion baseline escape system concept. This project became known as the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS), named in honor of Maxime Faget, the developer of the original Mercury escape system. Over the course of approximately two years the NESC performed conceptual and tradeoff analyses, designed and built full-scale flight test hardware, and conducted a flight test demonstration in July 2009. Since the flight test, the NESC has continued to further develop and refine the MLAS concept.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

NASA's Advanced Solar Sail Propulsion System for Low-Cost Deep Space Exploration and Science Missions that Use High Performance Rollable Composite Booms

Several low-cost solar sail technology demonstrator missions are under development in the United States. However, the mass saving derived benefits that composites can offer to such a mass critical spacecraft architecture have not been realized yet. This is due to the lack of suitable composite booms that can fit inside CubeSat platforms and ultimately be readily scalable to much larger sizes, where they can fully optimize their use. With this aim, a new effort focused at developing scalable rollable composite booms for solar sails and other deployable structures has begun. Seven meter booms used to deploy a 90 m2 class solar sail that can fit inside a 6U CubeSat have already been developed. The NASA road map to low-cost solar sail capability demonstration envisioned, consists of increasing the size of these composite booms to enable sailcrafts with a reflective area of up to 2000 m2 housed aboard small satellite platforms. This paper presents a solar sail system initially conceived to serve as a risk reduction alternative to Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout's baseline design but that has recently been slightly redesigned and proposed for follow-on missions. The features of the booms and various deployment mechanisms for the booms and sail, as well as ground support equipment used during testing, are introduced. The results of structural analyses predict the performance of the system under microgravity conditions. Finally, the results of the functional and environmental testing campaign carried out are shown.

Fernandez, Juan M.↗

Preexisting Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Blunts the Development of Posttraumatic Osteoarthritis

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) affects 9.5% of the population. T1DM is characterized by severe insulin deficiency that causes hyperglycemia and leads to several systemic effects. T1DM has been suggested as a risk factor for articular cartilage damage and loss, which could expedite the development of osteoarthritis (OA). OA represents a major public health challenge by affecting 300 million people globally, yet very little is known about the correlation between T1DM and OA. In addition, current studies that have looked at the interaction between diabetes mellitus and OA have reported conflicting results with some suggesting a positive correlation whereas others did not. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether T1DM exacerbates the development of spontaneous OA or accelerates the progression of posttraumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) after joint injury. Histological evaluation of T1DM and control joints determined that T1DM mice displayed cartilage degeneration measurements consistent with mild OA phenotypes. RNA sequencing analyses identified significantly upregulated genes in T1DM corresponding to matrix-degrading enzymes known to promote cartilage matrix degradation, suggesting a role of these enzymes in OA development. Next, we assessed whether preexisting T1DM influences PTOA development subsequent to trauma. At 6 weeks post-injury, T1DM injured joints displayed significantly less cartilage damage and joint degeneration than injured non-diabetic joints, suggesting a significant delay in PTOA disease progression. At the single-cell resolution, we identified increased number of cells expressing the chondrocyte markers Col2a1, Acan, and Cytl1 in the T1DM injured group. Our findings demonstrate that T1DM can be a risk factor for OA but not for PTOA. This study provides the first account of single-cell resolution related to T1DM and the risk for OA and PTOA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Variants in the MS4A cluster interact with soluble TREM2 expression on biomarkers of neuropathology

Recent evidence suggests that Alzheimer’s disease (AD) genetic risk variants (rs1582763 and rs6591561) of the MS4A locus are genome-wide significant regulators of soluble TREM2 levels such that the minor allele of the protective variant (rs1582763) is associated with higher sTREM2 and lower AD risk while the minor allele of (rs6591561) relates to lower sTREM2 and higher AD risk. Our group previously found that higher sTREM2 relates to higher Aβ 40 , worse blood–brain barrier (BBB) integrity (measured with the CSF/plasma albumin ratio), and higher CSF tau, suggesting strong associations with amyloid abundance and both BBB and neurodegeneration complicate interpretation. We expand on this work by leveraging these common variants as genetic tools to tune the interpretation of high CSF sTREM2, and by exploring the potential modifying role of these variants on the well-established associations between CSF sTREM2 as well as TREM2 transcript levels in the brain with AD neuropathology. Biomarker analyses leveraged data from the Vanderbilt Memory & Aging Project (n = 127, age = 72 ± 6.43) and were replicated in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 399, age = 73 ± 7.39). Autopsy analyses were performed leveraging data from the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (n= 577, age = 89 ± 6.46). We found that the protective variant rs1582763 attenuated the association between CSF sTREM2 and Aβ 40 (β= -0.44, p-value= 0.017) and replicated this interaction in ADNI (β = -0.27, p = 0.017). We did not observe this same interaction effect between TREM2 mRNA levels and Aβ peptides in brain (Aβ total β = -0.14, p = 0.629; Aβ 1-38 , β = 0.11, p = 0.200). In contrast to the effects on Aβ, the minor allele of this same variant seemed to enhance the association with blood–brain barrier dysfunction (β = 7.0e-4, p = 0.009), suggesting that elevated sTREM2 may carry a much different interpretation in carriers vs. non-carriers of this allele. When evaluating the risk variant (rs6591561) across datasets, we did not observe a statistically significant interaction against any outcome in VMAP and observed opposing directions of associations in ADNI and ROS/MAP on Aβ levels. Together, our results suggest that the protective effect of rs1582763 may act by decoupling the associations between sTREM2 and amyloid abundance, providing important mechanistic insight into sTREM2 changes and highlighting the need to incorporate genetic context into the analysis of sTREM2 levels, particularly if leveraged as a clinical biomarker of disease in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Life Cycle Systems Engineering Approach to NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd- generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1 -in- 10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. Given a candidate architecture that possesses credible physical processes and realistic technology assumptions, the next set of analyses address the system's functionality across the spread of operational scenarios characterized by the design reference missions. The safety/reliability and cost/economics associated with operating the system will also be modeled and analyzed to answer the questions "How safe is it?" and "How much will it cost to acquire and operate?" The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

Disparities in the air quality monitoring stations and PM₂.₅ in Chicago’s air quality landscape

Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses significant public and environmental health risks in urban areas. Chicago’s dense industry and traffic create variable air quality, yet monitoring is unevenly distributed, resulting in undersampling of air quality data in some city areas. This study applied a hybrid approach using GIS-based kernel density mapping, interpolation modeling (IDW, Spline, Kriging) of USEPA monitoring data, multi-scale temporal trend analyses (hourly to annual), and ESDA. Accordingly, the density surface showed that monitors are concentrated in the affluent north, northwest, and southwest sides of Chicago (up to ~ 0.07 stations per sq mile), while the south and southeast regions, with predominantly minority communities, have virtually no coverage. Overall, citywide coverage is minimal (~ 4–5 monitors total; ~0.02 per sq mile; ≈1 per 600,000 residents). Temporal analyses showed that the city’s mean annual PM₂.₅ (~ 10.8 µg/m³) exceeds USEPA/WHO standards (9 µg/m³), with summer means (~ 17.1 µg/m³) significantly higher than other seasons. Diurnally, a clear pattern was observed, with PM₂.₅ concentrations peaking overnight (00:00–03:00) and during the morning rush hours, and dipping during midday to late afternoon. Spatial distribution of PM₂.₅ identified hotspots near O’Hare Airport, the downtown Loop area, and south-side neighborhoods, contrasting with lower concentrations on the north side, revealing Chicago’s socioeconomic divides and resulting environmental inequities. The findings underscore the need for expanded monitoring and targeted interventions in under-monitored, high-pollution communities to advance equitable community health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Analysis of Dust Samples Collected from a Near-Marine East Coast ISFSI Site ("Site C")

In June of 2022, dust samples were collected from the surface of an in-service spent nuclear fuel dry storage canister during an inspection at an Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation. The site is anonymous but is a near-marine or brackish water east coast location referred to here as "Site C". The purpose of the sampling was to assess the composition and abundance of the soluble salts present on the canister surface, information that provides a metric for potential corrosion risks. Following collection, the samples were delivered to Sandia National Laboratories for analysis. At Sandia, the soluble salts were leached from the dust and quantified by ion chromatography. In addition, subsamples of the dust were taken for scanning electron microscopy to determine the particle sizes, morphology, and mineralogy of the dust and salts. The results of those analyses are presented in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

Tai, Jimmy C. M.↗

Association between simian virus 40 and non-Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND: Non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased in frequency over the past 30 years, and is a common cancer in HIV-1-infected patients. Although no definite risk factors have emerged, a viral cause has been postulated. Polyomaviruses are known to infect human beings and to induce tumours in laboratory animals. We aimed to identify which one of the three polyomaviruses able to infect human beings (simian virus 40 [SV40], JC virus, and BK virus) was associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. METHODS: We analysed systemic non-Hodgkin lymphoma from 76 HIV-1-infected and 78 HIV-1-uninfected patients, and non-malignant lymphoid samples from 79 HIV-1-positive and 107 HIV-1-negative patients without tumours; 54 colon and breast carcinoma samples served as cancer controls. We used PCR followed by Southern blot hybridisation and DNA sequence analysis to detect DNAs of polyomaviruses and herpesviruses. FINDINGS: Polyomavirus T antigen sequences, all of which were SV40-specific, were detected in 64 (42%) of 154 non-Hodgkin lymphomas, none of 186 non-malignant lymphoid samples, and none of 54 control cancers. This difference was similar for HIV-1-infected patients and HIV-1-uninfected patients alike. Few tumours were positive for both SV40 and Epstein-Barr virus. Human herpesvirus type 8 was not detected. SV40 sequences were found most frequently in diffuse large B-cell and follicular-type lymphomas. INTERPRETATION: SV40 is significantly associated with some types of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. These results add lymphomas to the types of human cancers associated with SV40.

Non-NASA Center↗

ASTERIA Operations Demonstrates the Value of Combining the Mission Assurance and Fault Protection Roles on CubeSats

On November 20, 2017, ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics), a 6U CubeSat performing a technology demonstration of astrophysical measurements, deployed from the ISS. The technology demonstration goals to achieve precision photometry via arcsecond-level line-of-sight pointing error and highly stable focal plane temperature control were met by February 2018. Extended mission operations are ongoing, with the primary focus on observing nearby stars for transiting exoplanets. Throughout development and operations, the roles of mission assurance and fault protection have proven critical to achieving the primary technical goals and to maintaining a healthy spacecraft through multiple extended missions. Given the budget and schedule constraints typical of a CubeSat, innovative tailoring of processes has been critical to success throughout both development and operations of ASTERIA. Mission assurance plays an important role in identifying and evaluating risk and developing cost-effective mitigations. Flexibility in the fault protection design offers a variety of options for implementing risk mitigations as risks have been uncovered both in pre-delivery testing and in mission operations. This paper will discuss the approach taken on ASTERIA to implement mission assurance and fault protection and the resulting benefits to operational efficiency and success. It will briefly address the advantages of this approach during development, in which the combination of the roles provided mission assurance significant insight to system risks, which feeds back into testing methodologies and directly into fault protection design. Operations will be discussed in detail. During this phase, the roles merge to identify in-flight fault protection updates to efficiently respond to anomalies and improve the likelihood of successful technology demonstrations. The paper will also detail the tools that are used to analyse data, identify anomalies, and develop the updates to uplink to the spacecraft. Finally, the general operational approach will be discussed to highlight the usefulness of the ASTERIA processes and their applicability to future CubeSat missions.

Knapp, Mary↗

The Demand for a Domestic Offshore Wind Energy Supply Chain

In March of 2021, the Biden-Harris Administration established a National Offshore Wind Target to install 30 GW by 2030. This ambitious goal was not only intended to help reduce dependencies on fossil fuels, but also represents an opportunity to establish a new and sustainable industry in the United States. The announcement referenced the potential benefits of establishing a domestic supply chain, including the opportunity for existing suppliers to produce thousands of components while creating tens of thousands of jobs over the course of the decade. This vision by the Biden-Harris Administration aligns with the perspective of the offshore wind industry. At a Leadership 100 event hosted by the Business Network for Offshore wind in 2019, offshore wind developers and manufacturers identified the need for a roadmap outlining a pathway to a domestic supply chain as the top priority facing the industry. Building up domestic manufacturing capabilities will not only energize local industries but can potentially de-risk individual project by reducing reliance on importing resources from European or Asian markets. Although establishing a domestic supply chain will require significant investment, it has the potential to create substantial benefits throughout the industry and, by extension, on the decarbonization goals of the United States. This study characterizes the challenges and opportunities facing the growth of a domestic supply chain industry and evaluates the potential benefits that could be achieved through the creation of the supply chain. This report is the first of a two-part series which will describe the full supply chain roadmap and the associated benefits; the current report focuses on the high-level deployment, workforce, and component requirements that need to be met to achieve the National Offshore Wind Target. We will present: 1. A deployment pipeline that demonstrates the pathway to 30 GW, the associated demand for major fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind components (turbines, foundations, cables, substations), and the vessel and port requirements to support these installation activities. 2. A series of sensitivity analyses showing how the demand for components, ports, and vessels changes for different technology pathways and availability of the global supply chain. 3. An estimate of the total number of jobs that would be required to support these deployment scenarios under varying levels of assumed domestic content. 4. A comprehensive list of the Tier 1, 2, and 3 components (finished components, subassemblies, and subcomponents) required to construct fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind projects. 5. A discussion of critical path components that represent a significant challenge, bottleneck, or risk for a future domestic supply chain.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Large-Scale Analysis to Optimize the Control and V2V Communication Protocols for CDA Agreement-Seeking Cooperation

Cooperative driving automation (CDA) Class C, agreement-seeking cooperation, is an innovative and practical solution that can promote cooperation among general passenger vehicles on the road. However, more comprehensive studies are needed before establishing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation, such as communication frequency and the duration of cooperation. Here, this article presents an initiative study on the impacts of communication capabilities on agreement-seeking cooperation. Through a large-scale analysis by regulating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication metrics, this work suggests desirable system parameters that can maximize the benefits of cooperation and ensure reliable operability while avoiding exhaustive communication loads. As the first step, an example agreement-seeking cooperation system is created for a car-following scenario, including decision-making and control algorithms for autonomous vehicles. Then, software-in-the-loop tests explore the performance of the developed system as it encounters various communication risks, such as latency and message packet drops. The system performance metrics are evaluated from various angles, including the time consumed for the agreement-seeking process, cooperation ratio, and the ratio of faulty cooperation. Energy saving from the cooperation is assessed by using simulation software that can run multiple high-fidelity vehicle models simultaneously. Based on the analyses, this article suggests the V2V communication requirements for the reliable operation of CDA agreement-seeking, which can be referred to when developing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Conceptual Designs for Irradiation Creep Testing of SiC in HFIR

Understanding irradiation creep of nuclear fuel cladding is important to properly size the initial fuel-cladding gap and understand when pellet-cladding contact is expected to occur due to a combination of fuel swelling and cladding creep-down. Irradiation creep also plays a role in relaxing stresses that develop in-pile. Silicon carbide fiber–reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composites are the leading long-term accident-tolerant fuel cladding concept for light-water reactors (LWRs). Although some limited data are available regarding irradiation creep of the individual constituents (fibers, matrix), data regarding irradiation creep of SiC/SiC composites are currently insufficient. Additional data regarding irradiation creep compliance and the rupture lifetime (combination of creep and slow crack growth) are needed to understand material limitations. This work describes the design and development of two irradiation vehicles that are being pursued for testing SiC/SiC concepts in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The first is a passive experiment, referred to as the PRECISE experiment, that leverages the constant coolant pressure of HFIR to compress a metallic bellows and provide a well-characterized load to drive creep in a SiC/SiC dog bone specimen. The total creep strain would be quantified post-irradiation by measuring dimensional changes of the specimen length as well as local dimensional changes within the gauge region. Non-stressed specimens would also be irradiated under the same conditions to provide an indication of dimensional changes due to radiation-induced swelling in the absence of creep. A second, more complex experiment, referred to as the INSITE experiment, is being designed in parallel that would use pneumatics to pressurize a metal bellows and linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs) to measure the specimen displacement in situ during irradiation. Such an experiment would provide significantly more data regarding the evolution of the creep compliance as a function of dose and applied stress within a single experiment but would require significantly more development time and cost to execute. The primary concern with the INSITE experiment is the accuracy, reliability, and expected lifetime of the LVDTs during irradiation at elevated temperatures. Efforts are being made to adjust the experiment design and operating procedure to limit LVDT temperatures and mitigate or otherwise compensate for uncertainties due to factors such as temperature fluctuations, creep in the surrounding structural materials, and drift of the LVDTs. This work describes the experiment designs, thermal and structural analysis that were performed to ensure that the desired temperature and stress conditions can be achieved, some initial sensitivity analyses to predict the evolution of the radiation-induced specimen displacements, and potential sources of uncertainty in the measurements. Out-of-pile testing is being performed in parallel to confirm that the test trains achieve the expected stress states in the specimens and do not result in prohibitive stress concentrators (e.g., in the grip regions) that might risk pre-mature failure. The PRECISE experiments are proceeding toward fabrication and assembly with HFIR insertion planned during fiscal year 2026. The INSITE experiment is progressing toward out-of-pile demonstrations, which will provide more conclusive evidence regarding the feasibility of executing these tests in HFIR or whether alternative displacement monitoring techniques may need to be considered.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Remote Sensing techniques used to characterize soil erosion in southwestern Sao Paulo state

Within randomly sampled squares of a 1 km x 1 km grid, rill/gullies frequency, land cover/land use type and shape of the slopes were extracted from aerial photographs of the Ribeirao Anhumas drainage basin. Mean slope gradient, stream frequency and slope length were calculated on topographic maps. Ground truth data on fine sand/coarse sand ratio and vegetation cover densities were obtained. The MSS-LANDSAT-2 data (CCTs) were analyzed using single-cell, cluster synthesis and slicer algorithms. Graphical and statistical analyses of the data indicate that different slope gradients and land cover/land use types are the most significant factors related to the soil erosion process. The digital analysis of MSS data allowed the association among gray level classes and vegetation cover classes, which defined seven classes. These gray level classes and slope gradient classes were used to rank erosion risk.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

Orasanu, Judith↗

Evolution of a Mars Airplane Concept for the ARES Mars Scout Mission

ARES (Aerial Regional-scale Environmental Survey of Mars) is a proposed Mars Scout mission using an airplane to provide high-value science measurements in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, surface geology and mineralogy, and crustal magnetism. The use of an airplane for robotic exploration of Mars has been studied for over 25 years. There are, however, significant challenges associated with getting an airplane to Mars and flying through the thin, carbon dioxide Martian atmosphere. The traditional wisdom for aircraft design does not always apply for this type of vehicle and geometric, aerodynamic, and mission constraints result in a limited feasible design space. The ARES airplane design is the result of a concept exploration and evolution involving a number of trade studies, downselects, and design refinements. Industry, university, and NASA partners initially proposed a number of different concepts, drawing heavily on past Mars airplane design experience. Concept downselects were conducted with qualitative evaluation and high level analyses, focused on the most important parameters for the ARES mission. Following a successful high altitude test flight of the basic configuration, additional design refinement led to the current design. The resulting Mars airplane concept enables the high-value science objectives of the ARES mission to be accomplished while also fulfilling the desire for a simple, low-risk design.

Smith, Stephen C.↗