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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Competing Risks

Highlights: • Clinicians and researchers need to be cognizant of competing risks (ie, the occurrence of an event that precludes future development of the outcome of interest). • Censoring is appropriate when a patient being censored at a particular time (eg, owing to loss to follow-up) is deemed to have approximately the same future risk of developing the outcome of interest as patients still being followed, and when the reason for censoring is not related to events of interest. • Censoring is not appropriate in many scenarios; for example, a dead patient can never develop a future cancer recurrence or late effect. • Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis is commonly used for a time-to-event analysis when the primary outcome (eg, overall survival) has no meaningful competing risk and censoring is appropriate. Cox proportional hazards modeling can be used for multivariable analysis to examine the association between covariates and the primary outcome. • In the presence of competing events, incorrect use of the KM analysis will likely lead to an overestimation of the risk of the outcome of interest and biased estimates from both univariable and multivariable analyses. Therefore, KM usually should not be used to determine local recurrence risk because humanity is always at risk for dying, which is a competing risk. • A competing risk analysis is therefore most appropriate when there are competing events to the primary outcome of interest. The most commonly used multivariable model in these situations is the Fine-Gray model. • Many fundamental questions in radiation oncology—local and regional recurrence, treatment-related toxicity—are best addressed using competing risk methodologies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2007

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
NASA NTRS2015

Radiant Heating Tests on Meteoritic Material

A new effort geared toward modeling the physics of meteor entry and break-up is underway at NASA Ames Research Center. This is part of a broader interdisciplinary effort on providing physics-based risk assessment models for potentially hazardous objects. As part of the entry modeling task we are seeking to improve our understanding of, among other things, the ablation of meteoric material during high speed entry into earths atmosphere. Meteoroid entry differs greatly in some key respects from spacecraft entry modeling. First, the aerothermal environment at these high velocities (18 km/s) is dominated by radiation. Second, meteoroids less than, say, 50m in size, will likely lose a significant portion of their mass during the high-speed atmospheric entry process due to vaporization as well as melting and spallation. The mass of the object, in turn, directly affects the amount of energy deposited in the atmosphere, and therefore the amount of damage done. Thus it is important for us to understand and be able to model this process in greater detail in order to assess the hazard posed by these objects.In this presentation, we first give an overview of the simple ablation models that are typically used in meteor entry calculations. Additionally, we will present a new model which utilizes a similar approach to what is typically done for spacecraft TPS response modeling. This uses an equilibrium assumption near the surface to compute the ablation rate, as is done in heritage material response codes. Next we describe the radiant heating experiment which uses a high-powered laser to emulate the radiation dominated heating environment experienced by meteoroids during atmospheric entry. The facility the Laser Hardened Material Evaluation Laboratory (LHMEL) permits us to expose samples of meteoritic material to heating rates in excess of 100kW/sq.cm. An overview of the experimental set-up and test plan for the initial exploratory campaign at this facility will be given. Then we present both qualitative and quantitative results from this initial test series. Comparisons between predicted and measured ablation rates suggest that there may be significant blockage of the incident beam by the ablation plume. Furthermore, melt is shown to be a significant ablation mechanics, even at high heating rates (16 kW/sq.cm). Finally, comparisons between the phenomenology of the ablation of terrestrial rocks namely, basalt -- to that of meteorites show very different behavior. This is shown to likely be due in part to the effect of composition on the melt viscosity.

Stern, Eric↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Charging as an Asset to Interplanetary Small Spacecraft

Small spacecraft operate on a far more limited power budget than their larger counterparts, a problem compounded for interplanetary spacecraft in the outer solar system. The reduced solar flux beyond Earth’s orbit makes solar panels less effective for spacecraft exploring the gas giants and can they are susceptible to damage by intense radiation belts. Radioisotope thermoelectric generators are expensive and bulky compared to their power output. Interplanetary small satellite missions benefit from both alternative energy sources and low-power electronics to power their buses and scientific payloads. Traditionally, spacecraft engineers treat the space environment as a hazard, but it nevertheless offers a potential solution. Currents from space plasmas charge spacecraft to high potentials and can cause electrical arcing to occur between differentially charged surfaces. The spacecraft can harvest a small amount of power —<10 mW/m2at Jupiter — from the electric field between these surfaces to do useful work, either by charging a battery or directly powering an instrument or actuator. While using the energy directly has limited use due to the low electron density and temperature of most space plasmas, it can nevertheless be used in situations where solar panels are not desirable, such as high radiation environments. Two applications — a Langmuir probe and an attitude control actuator — exploit the disparate current-voltage characteristics between surfaces with different material properties and require minimal input power to operate.

Spacecraft↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Charging as an Asset to Interplanetary Small Spacecraft

Small spacecraft operate on a far more limited power budget than their larger counterparts, a problem compounded for interplanetary spacecraft in the outer solar system. The reduced solar flux beyond Earth’s orbit makes solar panels less effective for spacecraft exploring the gas giants and they are susceptible to damage by intense radiation belts. Radioisotope thermoelectric generators are expensive and bulky compared to their power output. Interplanetary small satellite missions benefit from both alternative energy sources and low-power electronics to power their buses and scientific payloads. Traditionally, spacecraft engineers treat the space environment as a hazard, but it nevertheless offers a potential solution. Currents from space plasmas charge spacecraft to high potentials and can cause electrical arcing to occur between differentially charged surfaces. The spacecraft can harvest a small amount of power —<10 mW/m2at Jupiter — from the electric field between these surfaces to do useful work, either by charging a battery or directly powering an instrument or actuator. While using the energy directly has limited use due to the low electron density and temperature of most space plasmas, it can nevertheless be used in situations where solar panels are not desirable, such as high radiation environments. Two applications — a Langmuir probe and an attitude control actuator — exploit the disparate current-voltage characteristics between surfaces with different material properties and require minimal input power to operate.

spacecraft charging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Cell Survival Fraction and Other Dose-Response Relationships for Immunodeficient C.B-17 SCID Mice Exposed to 320-kV X Rays

US homeland security concerns related to potential misuse of γ-ray-emitting radiation sources employed in radiobiological research (eg, shielded cesium-137 irradiators) led to recommendations by the National Research Council to conduct studies into possibly replacing γ-ray irradiators used in research involving small rodent and other models with X-ray instruments. A limiting factor is suitability of the X-ray photon energy spectra. The objective of our research was to demonstrate the suitability of the radiation energy spectrum of 320-kV X rays after filtration (HVL = 4 mm Cu) for in-vivo cytotoxicity studies in immunodeficient C.B-17 SCID mice. By using a previously-published Hazard Function (HF) model to characterize dose-response relationships for in vivo bone marrow and spleen cell survival fractions and also to characterize the acute lethality risk (hematopoietic syndrome mode) we demonstrate that the filtered 320-kV X-ray beam appears suitable for such studies. A key finding for C.B-17 SCID mice when compared to results previously obtained for immunocompetent C.B-17 mice is that the immunodeficient mice appear to be more radioresistant, implicating a possible role of the immune system capacity in radiosensitivity of mammals.

Scott, Bobby R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Some Behavioral Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Fe-56 Particles

Future missions in space (such as a mission to Mars) will involve long-term travel beyond the magnetic field of the Earth. As a result, astronauts will be exposed to radiation qualities and doses that differ from those experienced in low earth orbit, including exposure to heavy particles, such as Fe-56, which are a component of cosmic rays. Although the hazards of exposure to heavy particles are often minimized, they can affect neural functioning, and as a consequence, behavior. Unless the effects of exposure to cosmic rays can somehow be reduced, their effects on the brain throughout long duration flights could be disastrous. In the extreme case, it is possible that the effects of cosmic rays on space travelers could result in symptomatology resembling that of Alzheimer's or Parkinson's diseases or of advancing age, including significant cognitive and/or motor impairments. Because successful operations in space depend in part on the performance capabilities of astronauts, such impairments could jeopardize their ability to satisfy mission requirements, as well as have long-term consequences on the health of astronauts. As such, understanding the nature and extent of this risk may be vital to the effective performance and possibly the survival of astronauts during future missions in space.

Rabin, Bernard M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Natural Hazards of the Space Environment

Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are subject to numerous environmental hazards. Here I'll briefly discuss three environment factors that pose acute threats to the survival of spacecraft systems and crew: atmospheric drag, impacts by meteoroids and orbital debris, and ionizing radiation. Atmospheric drag continuously opposes the orbital motion of a satellite, causing the orbit to decay. This decay will lead to reentry if not countered by reboost maneuvers. Orbital debris is a by-product of man's activities in space, and consists of objects ranging in size from miniscule paint chips to spent rocket stages and dead satellites. Ionizing radiation experienced in LEO has several components: geomagnetically trapped protons and electrons (Van Allen belts); energetic solar particles; galactic cosmic rays; and albedo neutrons. These particles can have several types of prompt harmful effects on equipment and crew, from single-event upsets, latchup, and burnout of electronics, to lethal doses to crew.All three types of prompt threat show some dependence on the solar activity cycle. Atmospheric drag mitigation and large debris avoidance require propulsive maneuvers. M/OD and ionizing radiation require some form of shielding for crew and sensitive equipment. Limiting exposure time is a mitigation technique for ionizing radiation and meteor streams.

Evans, Steven W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solid Lubricants and Coatings for Extreme Environments: State-of-the-Art Survey

An investigation was conducted to survey anticipated requirements for solid lubricants in lunar and Martian environments, as well as the effects of these environments on lubricants and their performance and durability. The success of habitats and vehicles on the Moon and Mars, and ultimately, of the human exploration of and permanent human presence on the Moon and Mars, are critically dependent on the correct and reliable operation of many moving mechanical assemblies and tribological components. The coefficient of friction and lifetime of any lubricant generally vary with the environment, and lubricants have very different characteristics under different conditions. It is essential, therefore, to select the right lubrication technique and lubricant for each mechanical and tribological application. Several environmental factors are hazardous to performance integrity on the Moon and Mars. Potential threats common to both the Moon and Mars are low ambient temperatures, wide daily temperature swings (thermal cycling), solar flux, cosmic radiation, and large quantities of dust. The surface of Mars has the additional challenges of dust storms, winds, and a carbon dioxide atmosphere. Solid lubricants and coatings are needed for lunar and Martian applications, where liquid lubricants are ineffective and undesirable, and these lubricants must perform well in the extreme environments of the Moon, Mars, and space, as well as on Earth, where they will be assembled and tested. No solid lubricants and coatings and their systems currently exist or have been validated that meet these requirements, so new solid lubricants must be designed and validated for these applications.

Miyoshi, Kazuhisa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Capacity for Policy-makers in a Virtual Setting: Providing Tools to Analyze Wildfire Smoke Plumes and Their Impacts

The NASA DEVELOP Program conducted 10-week long feasibility projects in a remote work setting, including partnering with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter and the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency to investigate wildfire smoke from 2000 - 2020 in the Pacific Northwest using satellite-derived data. The team engaged with platforms for collaboration both internally with NASA affiliates and externally with community organizations. Working from multiple states, the team members used a variety of software including Google Meet, Microsoft Teams, and Google Earth Engine to foster communication and work with data in a shared virtual environment. Throughout the project, the team learned that executing the project in a distanced work setting made it easier to reach out to scientists across the country for expertise and guidance. To study changes in air quality resulting from wildfire smoke, the team utilized data from NASA’s Fire Information from Resource Management System (FIRMS) and the ESA’s Sentinel-5 TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The team created a Google Earth Engine web-based tool, “Plume Hazards and Observations of Emissions by Navigating an Interactive eXplorer” (PHOENIX), to visualize changes in pollutants and aerosol optical depth after fire events. The potential relationship between plume height and fire radiative power was evaluated by using NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Aqua and Terra satellites and NASA’s Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard Terra with the MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX). The PHOENIX smoke assessment tool and science communication infographics will be shared electronically with the partner organizations. Furthermore, the team introduced the partners to MINX and will provide a tailored tutorial that included a recorded video and a written component with a live virtual workshop. These resources build capacity for further research and education on wildfire smoke and air quality within communities.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Behavior of High-Velocity Dust Generated by Lander Plumes in the Lunar Environment

Lunar lander plumes are known to accelerate fine dust to speeds exceeding 2 km/s, and the resultant ejecta may remain in lunar orbit for extended periods of time. Such ejecta could become hazardous to objects in lunar orbit as well as systems on the surface. In order to understand the impact on orbiting lunar infrastructure such as Gateway, as well as assets on the lunar surface, here we consider the dynamics of the resultant high-velocity plume ejecta. Initial conditions were set by the expected near-term lunar activity and the known cone of accelerated dust generated by previous lunar landings. The effects of regular 3-body gravitation, solar radiation pressure, and electric field are included in the model. It is found that although the majority of sub-μm dust is carried away by solar wind and electric fields, about ~10% of the dust between 1.7 km/s and 2.3 km/s reimpacts the surface, much of it near the landing site. The hazard posed by that debris is a function of lander mass and distance from the landing site. The Gateway, when orbiting in the nominal NRHO at the time of a landing, is not expected to be significantly affected by the dust. However, other spacecraft in less elliptic orbits may be at greater risk.

Ejecta↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors for airborne thunderstorm investigations

A high-energy atmospheric physics phenomenon, referred to as a terrestrial gamma ray flash (TGF), is associated with lightning and produces large bursts of energetic photon radiation. TGFs will be investigated using a suite of gamma-ray instruments designed and constructed to fly on ten United States Air Force (USAF) WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft as part of an aircrew ionization study led by the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM), in cooperation with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (WRS). Each instrument consists of one NaI and one plastic detector, a GPS timing device, and an instrument computer that performs data acquisition. High Elevation Radiation Array (HERA) detectors will be employed to maximize the chances of observing TGFs near their source and to gain a better understanding of their origin, mechanism, ubiquity, and to assess potential hazards posed to military and commercial aircrew and passengers. The HERA program, deployed on 10 separate Air Force aircraft over a multi-year campaign, will result in thousands of observational flight hours and be the largest concerted effort to date to observe TGFs in situ through aircraft observations. In this paper, we give an overview of the scientific goals of this campaign and how the HERA instruments have been designed to meet those goals. Here, we include a detailed description of the HERA instrument, along with mass model and signal processing simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

In situ chamber for studying battery failure using high-speed synchrotron radiography

The investigation of lithium-ion battery failures is a major challenge for personnel and equipment due to the associated hazards (thermal reaction, toxic gases and explosions). To perform such experiments safely, a battery abuse-test chamber has been developed and installed at the microtomography beamline ID19 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF). The chamber provides the capability to robustly perform in situ abuse tests through the heat-resistant and gas-tight design for flexible battery geometries and configurations, including single-cell and multi-cell assemblies. High-speed X-ray imaging can be complemented by supplementary equipment, including additional probes (voltage, pressure and temperature) and thermal imaging. Together with the test chamber, a synchronization graphical user interface was developed, which allows an initial interpretation by time-synchronous visualization of the acquired data. Enabled by this setup, new meaningful insights can be gained into the internal processes of a thermal runaway of current and future energy-storage devices such as lithium-ion cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the elevated heat pump hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South .and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Review of Human Cognitive Performance in Spaceflight

Human space exploration is inherently hazardous, particularly for lon g duration (LD) missions (22 days or longer). Maintenance of cognitive functioning is essential, but flight environments pose numerous pote ntial risks to the brain and cognitive performance (eg, radiation, to xins, chronic stress, sleep deprivation, hypercarbia, fluid shifts, h ormone imbalances, and injury). There have been persistent anecdotal reports of cognitive deficits during missions, but an up?-to-date rev iew of the evidence for such changes has remained unavailable. Method s: We identified and reviewed English language publications found via electronic searches in PubMed, PsycInfo, Inspec, the NASA Technical Report Server, and the Defense Technical Information Center, plus rec ursive searches of publication bibliographies. Search terms included the word cognition, cognitive, or performance along with spaceflight, flight, mission, or closely related terms. Results: Inter?-study variability precluded meta?-analysis. Some 32 published studies involving cognitive assessment during spaceflight were identified, involving a total of 110 participants (mean: 3.4 participants per study). The lo ngest?-duration study spanned 438 days, with six additional studies i nvolving flight durations of 90 days, and 11 more studies involved fl ight durations exceeding 21 days. The available evidence failed to st rongly support or refute the existence of cognitive deficits in LD sp aceflight, in part due to inadequate power or control conditions. Evi dence of increased variability in cognitive performance during spacef light, both within and between individuals, was common. Discussion: T hese results represent a negative finding based on small numbers of s ubjects for any given cognitive function. The increased variability within and (particularly) between individuals highlights the potential danger of generalizing from case studies. A mismatch therefore remain s between anecdotal reports describing generalized cognitive slowing, attention and memory problems during missions and the experimental e vidence supporting such deficits. Since a major justification for man ned spaceflight rests with the cognitive flexibility of humans, addit ional studies and further analysis of existing operational data appea rs warranted.

Strangman, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2015

Active Collision Avoidance for Planetary Landers

The use of automotive radar systems are being evaluated for collision avoidance in planetary landers. Our focus is to develop a low-cost, light-weight collision avoidance system that overcomes the drawbacks identified with optical-based systems. We also seek to complement the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology system by providing mission planners an alternative system that can be used on low-cost, small robotic missions and in close approach. Our approach takes advantage of how electromagnetic radiation interacts with solids. As the wavelength increases, the sensitivity of the radiation to isolated solids of a specific particle size decreases. Thus, rocket exhaust-blown dust particles, which have major significance in visible wavelengths, have much less significance at radar wavelengths.

Rickman, Doug↗