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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

A probabilistic model for the identification of confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, with implications to scaling laws

Pattern recognition is becoming an important tool in fusion data analysis. However, fusion diagnostic measurements are often affected by considerable statistical uncertainties, rendering the extraction of useful patterns a significant challenge. Therefore, we assume a probabilistic model for the data and perform pattern recognition in the space of probability distributions. We show the considerable advantage of our method for identifying confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, and we discuss the potential for scaling laws.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Fluctuations and intermittent poloidal transport in a simple toroidal plasma

In a simple magnetized toroidal plasma, fluctuation induced poloidal flux is found to be significant in magnitude. The probability distribution function of the fluctuation induced poloidal flux is observed to be strongly non-Gaussian in nature; however, in some cases, the distribution shows good agreement with the analytical form [Carreras et al., Phys. Plasmas 3, 2664 (1996)], assuming a coupling between the near Gaussian density and poloidal velocity fluctuations. The observed non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuation induced poloidal flux and other plasma parameters such as density and fluctuating poloidal velocity in this device is due to intermittent and bursty nature of poloidal transport. In the simple magnetized torus used here, such an intermittent fluctuation induced poloidal flux is found to play a crucial role in generating the poloidal flow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electron transfer statistics and thermal fluctuations in molecular junctions

We derive analytical expressions for probability distribution function (PDF) for electron transport in a simple model of quantum junction in presence of thermal fluctuations. Our approach is based on the large deviation theory combined with the generating function method. For large number of electrons transferred, the PDF is found to decay exponentially in the tails with different rates due to applied bias. This asymmetry in the PDF is related to the fluctuation theorem. Statistics of fluctuations are analyzed in terms of the Fano factor. Thermal fluctuations play a quantitative role in determining the statistics of electron transfer; they tend to suppress the average current while enhancing the fluctuations in particle transfer. This gives rise to both bunching and antibunching phenomena as determined by the Fano factor. The thermal fluctuations and shot noise compete with each other and determine the net (effective) statistics of particle transfer. Exact analytical expression is obtained for delay time distribution. The optimal values of the delay time between successive electron transfers can be lowered below the corresponding shot noise values by tuning the thermal effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Lateral excitonic switching in vertically stacked quantum dots

We show that the application of a vertical electric field to the Coulomb interacting system in stacked quantum dots leads to a 90° in-plane switching of charge probability distribution in contrast to a single dot, where no such switching exists. Results are obtained using path integral quantum Monte Carlo with realistic dot geometry, alloy composition, and piezo-electric potential profiles. The origin of the switching lies in the strain interactions between the stacked dots hence the need for more than one layer of dots. The lateral polarization and electric field dependence of the radiative lifetimes of the excitonic switch are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Neutron Time Interval Distributions with Background Neutrons

A single cosmic ray air shower event can produce multiple neutrons. The arrival times of neutron counts from such an event creates a clustering pattern distinctly different from random sources. A theory for the time interval distribution between neutron counts from both a correlated source and cosmic ray air showers is given and a method is developed to compute the probability distributions for a cosmic ray air shower to create detected neutrons.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

One-point fluctuation analysis of the high-energy neutrino sky

We perform the first one-point fluctuation analysis of the high-energy neutrino sky. This method reveals itself to be especially suited to contemporary neutrino data, as it allows to study the properties of the astrophysical components of the high-energy flux detected by the IceCube telescope, even with low statistics and in the absence of point source detection. Besides the veto-passing atmospheric foregrounds, we adopt a simple model of the high-energy neutrino background by assuming two main extra-galactic components: star-forming galaxies and blazars. By leveraging multi-wavelength data from Herschel and Fermi , we predict the spectral and anisotropic probability distributions for their expected neutrino counts in IceCube. We find that star-forming galaxies are likely to remain a diffuse background due to the poor angular resolution of IceCube, and we determine an upper limit on the number of shower events that can reasonably be associated to blazars. We also find that upper limits on the contribution of blazars to the measured flux are unfavourably affected by the skewness of the blazar flux distribution. One-point event clustering and likelihood analyses of the IceCube HESE data suggest that this method has the potential to dramatically improve over more conventional model-based analyses, especially for the next generation of neutrino telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Testing approximate predictions of displacements of cosmological dark matter halos

We present a test to quantify how well some approximate methods, designed to reproduce the mildly non-linear evolution of perturbations, are able to reproduce the clustering of DM halos once the grouping of particles into halos is defined and kept fixed. The following methods have been considered: Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT) up to third order, Truncated LPT, Augmented LPT, MUSCLE and COLA. The test runs as follows: halos are defined by applying a friends-of-friends (FoF) halo finder to the output of an N-body simulation. The approximate methods are then applied to the same initial conditions of the simulation, producing for all particles displacements from their starting position and velocities. The position and velocity of each halo are computed by averaging over the particles that belong to that halo, according to the FoF halo finder. This procedure allows us to perform a well-posed test of how clustering of the matter density and halo density fields are recovered, without asking to the approximate method an accurate reconstruction of halos. We have considered the results at z =0,0.5,1, and we have analysed power spectrum in real and redshift space, object-by-object difference in position and velocity, density Probability Distribution Function (PDF) and its moments, phase difference of Fourier modes. We find that higher LPT orders are generally able to better reproduce the clustering of halos, while little or no improvement is found for the matter density field when going to 2LPT and 3LPT. Augmentation provides some improvement when coupled with 2LPT, while its effect is limited when coupled with 3LPT. Little improvement is brought by MUSCLE with respect to Augmentation. The more expensive particle-mesh code COLA outperforms all LPT methods, and this is true even for mesh sizes as large as the inter-particle distance. This test sets an upper limit on the ability of these methods to reproduce the clustering of halos, for the cases when these objects are reconstructed at the object-by-object level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Size-Selective Concentration of Chondrules and Other Small Particles in Protoplanetary Nebula Turbulence

Size-selective concentration of particles in a weakly turbulent protoplanetary nebula may be responsible for the initial collection of chondrules and other constituents into primitive bodY precursors. This paper presents the main elements of this process of turbulent concentration. In the terrestrial planet region. both the characteristic size and size distribution of chondrules are explained. "Fluffier" particles would be concentrated in nebula regions which were at a lower density and/or more intensely turbulent. The spatial distribution of concentrated particle density obeys multifractal scaling, suggesting a close tie to the turbulent cascade process. This scaling behavior allows predictions of the probability distributions for concentration in the protoplanetary nebula to be made. Large concentration factors (less than 10(exp 5)) are readily obtained, implying that numerous zones of particle density significantly exceeding the gas density could exist. If most of the available solids were actually in chondrule sized particles, the ensuing particle mass density would become so large that the feedback effects on gas turbulence due to mass loading could no longer be neglected. This paper describes the process, presenting its basic elements and some implications, without including the effects of mass loading.

Cuzzi, Jeffrey N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying Methane Leak Emissions by Fused Airborne Imaging Spectroscopy with in Situ Surface Mobile and Airborne Observations of a California Producing Oil Field

Methane (CH4) emission budgets remain uncertain and are projected to grow as oil and gas production from short-lived wells increases and their subsequent transport through aging gas distribution networks. Orders-of-magnitude variations in temporal, spatial, and emission scales present a key challenge to leak detection and quantification. Also, the probability distributions for large and stochastic, leaky systems such as geological reservoirs (by natural migration-seeps) and petroleum production from those reservoirs remain largely unknown, needed to address current approach limitations. The scale of many petroleum systems favors remote sensing, but the sensitivity of such systems often precludes detection of weak emissions. Consequently, an accurate evaluation requires that the relative contribution from the emission "tails" of small leaks also be quantified, which is best carried out using high-sensitivity in situ methods. Fusion of remote sensing and in situ approaches leverages complementary capabilities to address these limitations. We show results from mobile surface (AMOG) and airborne in situ (AJAX) and thermal-infrared (TIR) hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (Mako) data applied to a producing oil field in the California Central Valley near Bakersfield. AMOG is an automobile-based mobile lab that measures 13 trace gases, aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles, 3D winds and other meteorology, and atmospheric column measurements by solar spectroscopy at highway speeds. AJAX measures 5 trace gases and 3D winds at ~140 m/s. Mako is a broad-area TIR imaging spectrometer that can discriminate multiple gases present in each pixel acquired. In situ-derived, total field emissions were 31±16 Gg/yr CH4. This was compared with Mako-derived emissions from all plumes identified across the study site. We found that super-emitters were not the dominant emissions mode and the spatial pattern of plume locations from production infrastructure was correlated to geological structures.

Leifer, Ira↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Entropy-Based Test and Development Framework for Uncertainty Modeling in Level-Set Visualizations

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly influences the memory use, run time, and accuracy of an uncertainty visualization algorithm. We use an entropy calculation directly on ensemble data to establish an expected result and then compare the entropy from various probability models, including uniform, Gaussian, histogram, and quantile models. Our results verify that models matching the distribution of the ensemble indeed match the entropy. We further show that fewer bins in nonparametric histogram models are more effective whereas large numbers of bins in quantile models approach data accuracy.

Sisneros, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2017

The First 40 Million Years of Circumstellar Disk Evolution: The Signature of Terrestrial Planet Formation

We characterize the first 40 Myr of evolution of circumstellar disks through a unified study of the infrared properties of members of young clusters and associations with ages from 2 Myr up to ∼40 Myr: NGC 1333, NGC 1960, NGC 2232, NGC 2244, NGC 2362, NGC 2547, IC 348, IC 2395, IC 4665, Chamaeleon I, Orion OB1a and OB1b, Taurus, the β Pictoris Moving Group, ρ Ophiuchi, and the associations of Argus, Carina, Columba, Scorpius–Centaurus, and Tucana–Horologium. Our work features: (1) a filtering technique to flag noisy backgrounds; (2) a method based on the probability distribution of deflections, P ( D ), to obtain statistically valid photometry for faint sources; and (3) use of the evolutionary trend of transitional disks to constrain the overall behavior of bright disks. We find that the fraction of disks three or more times brighter than the stellar photospheres at 24 μ m decays relatively slowly initially and then much more rapidly by ∼10 Myr. However, there is a continuing component until ∼35 Myr, probably due primarily to massive clouds of debris generated in giant impacts during the oligarchic/chaotic growth phases of terrestrial planets. If the contribution from primordial disks is excluded, the evolution of the incidence of these oligarchic/chaotic debris disks can be described empirically by a log-normal function with the peak at 12–20 Myr, including ∼13% of the original population, and with a post-peak mean duration of 10–20 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Correlation function distributions for O ( N ) lattice field theories in the disordered phase

Numerical computations in strongly interacting quantum field theories are often performed using Monte Carlo sampling methods. A key task in these calculations is to estimate the value of a given physical quantity from the distribution of stochastic samples that are generated using the Monte Carlo method. Typically, the sample mean and sample variance are used to define the expectation values and uncertainties of computed quantities. However, the Monte Carlo sample distribution contains more information than these basic properties, and it is useful to investigate it more generally. In this work, the exact form of the probability distributions of two-point correlation functions at zero momentum in O ( N ) lattice field theories in the disordered phase and in infinite volume are determined. These distributions allow for a robust investigation of the efficacy of the Monte Carlo sampling procedure and are shown also to allow for improved estimators of the target physical quantity to be constructed. The theoretical expectations are shown to agree with numerical calculations in the O ( 2 ) model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wigner functions for nonclassical states of a collection of two-level atoms

The general theory of atomic angular momentum states is used to derive the Wigner distribution function for atomic angular momentum number states, coherent states, and squeezed states. These Wigner functions W(theta,phi) are represented as a pseudo-probability distribution in spherical coordinates theta and phi on the surface of a sphere of radius the square root of j(j +1) where j is the total angular momentum.

Agarwal, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

scintillation↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Analytic Framework for Optimal Milling Parameter Selection

The selection of optimal parameters is an important step in machining process definition. This paper presents a decision analytic framework for completing this task. The approach is demonstrated for titanium milling. An influence diagram showing the decision situation, the corresponding uncertainties, and the value is presented. The optimization objective is the selection of machining parameters that minimize cost while considering uncertainty in tool life and stability. The uncertainties are characterized using a probability distribution taking into account all available information. The cost associated with tool failure and unstable cutting conditions is incorporated in the cost formulation. A process probability tree showing the uncertainties and the corresponding costs is constructed. The optimization results show a 90% reduction in machining cost as compared to tool manufacturer-recommended parameters. The proposed framework is normative and robust and can be applied for optimizing process parameters in conventional (such as milling and turning) and non-conventional (such as electric discharge machining, electro-chemical machining) processes. A discussion section regarding inference, experimental design, and risk aversion is included.

Karandikar, Jaydeep↗
DOE OSTI2020

SSA Monte Carlo and Master Equation Modeling of Neutron Leakage Distributions

Strongly stochastic neutron populations in highly subcritical multiplying media containing weak spontaneous fission sources are unique indicators of the presence of SNM. For instance, in neutron multiplicity counting, an extended tail in the count number probability distribution is observed that is a characteristic of and sensitive to the amount of SNM present. Theoretical modeling and efficient computation of stochastic neutron distributions are complementary to experimental measurements and moreover shed light on the fundamental interactions and transport processes that underlie nuclear signatures. Modeling approaches that are intermediate between gross-system level models and high-fidelity but computationally demanding Monte Carlo simulations are of particular interest in this regard. Furthermore we present three advances on existing work in point kinetic or lumped geometry: (i) implementation of the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA), a system state-updating Monte Carlo method that is more e cient than single-event Monte Carlo in lumped geometries, (ii) application of the backward Master equation to obtain time-gated count moments, and (iii) reconstructing the count number distribution from the deterministically computed moments using a generalized Laguerre polynomial expansion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lensing and the Warm-hot Intergalactic Medium

The correlation of weak lensing and Cosmic Microwave Anisotropy (CMB) data traces the pressure distribution of the hot, ionized gas and the underlying matter density field. The measured correlation is dominated by baryons residing in halos. Detecting the contribution from unbound gas by measuring the residual cross-correlation after masking all known halos requires a theoretical understanding of this correlation and its dependence with model parameters. Our model assumes that the gas in filaments is well described by a log-normal probability distribution function, with temperatures 10{sup 5–7} K and overdensities ξ ≤ 100. The lensing-Comptonization cross-correlation is dominated by gas with overdensities in the range ξ ≈ [3–33]; the signal is generated at redshifts z ≤ 1. If only 10% of the measured cross-correlation is due to unbound gas, then the most recent measurements set an upper limit of T-bar {sub e}≲10{sup 6} K on the mean temperature of the intergalactic Medium. The amplitude is proportional to the baryon fraction stored in filaments. The lensing-Comptonization power spectrum peaks at a different scale than the gas in halos, making it possible to distinguish both contributions. To trace the distribution of the low-density and low-temperature plasma on cosmological scales, the effect of halos will have to be subtracted from the data, requiring observations with larger signal-to-noise ratios than are currently available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗