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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

QSO photometric redshifts using machine learning and neural networks

ABSTRACT The scientific value of the next generation of large continuum surveys would be greatly increased if the redshifts of the newly detected sources could be rapidly and reliably estimated. Given the observational expense of obtaining spectroscopic redshifts for the large number of new detections expected, there has been substantial recent work on using machine learning techniques to obtain photometric redshifts. Here, we compare the accuracy of the predicted photometric redshifts obtained from deep learning (DL) with the k-nearest neighbour (kNN) and the decision tree regression (DTR) algorithms. We find using a combination of near-infrared, visible, and ultraviolet magnitudes, trained upon a sample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasi-stellar objects, that the kNN and DL algorithms produce the best self-validation result with a standard deviation of σΔz = 0.24 (σΔz(norm) = 0.11). Testing on various subsamples, we find that the DL algorithm generally has lower values of σΔz, in addition to exhibiting a better performance in other measures. Our DL method, which uses an easy to implement off-the-shelf algorithm with neither filtering nor removal of outliers, performs similarly to other, more complex, algorithms, resulting in an accuracy of Δz < 0.1 up to z ∼ 2.5. Applying the DL algorithm trained on our 70 000 strong sample to other independent (radio-selected) data sets, we find σΔz ≤ 0.36 (σΔz(norm) ≤ 0.17) over a wide range of radio flux densities. This indicates much potential in using this method to determine photometric redshifts of quasars detected with the Square Kilometre Array.

Curran, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Chemical Kinetic Modeling: Where We Succeed, Where We Struggle, and What Comes Next

Chemical kinetic modeling plays a foundational role in fields ranging from energy to environmental science, pharmaceuticals, and advanced materials. The past two decades have seen remarkable progress, particularly in modeling gas-phase reactions for thermochemical processes, leading to impactful industrial applications such as steam cracking and air quality management. However, new challenges are emerging. The successful development of systematic methodologies for the description of gas-phase kinetics opens the possibility to apply the same approach to the study of more challenging systems. Here, we review recent advances, including ab initio transition state theory-based master equation estimation of elementary rates, automated mechanism generation, machine-learning-assisted kinetics, and uncertainty quantification, and discuss the advances needed to apply the same methodological approach in areas such as heterogeneous catalysis, electrochemistry, liquid-phase and solid-state reactivity, and multiscale model integration. We advocate for the development of targeted tools, especially methods that go beyond empirical tuning toward first-principles-based predictions. We highlight the need for accessible software and AIaugmented workflows to democratize modeling for industry and academia alike. In this perspective, we call attention to not only what has worked but also what remains unsolved, advocating to avoid overemphasizing successes in scientific works at the expense of realism. The next decade should focus on predictive capability, physical accuracy, and community infrastructure (e.g., databases and services) to enable innovation across diverse fields. We argue that kinetic modeling, properly equipped, can accelerate discovery far beyond its traditional domains.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding fundamental effects of biofuel structure on ignition and physical fuel properties

The development of biochemicals and biofuels with advantaged properties of higher combustion efficiency at lower emission levels can be aided by a priori prediction of critical global characteristics based on molecular structure. Existing predictive techniques are incomplete for comprehensive ignition and physical fuel property prediction. Here this investigation focuses on filling this knowledge gap by developing a priori prediction techniques for predicting important ignition as well as physical fuel properties of promising advantaged biofuels. We demonstrate the utility of this a priori prediction technique on saturated (≤C 5 ) alcohols, both linear and branched in nature by correlating their molecular structure with both important ignition and physical properties of the fuels. This work utilizes a semi-automated method of predicting ignition characteristics via accurate fundamental-based calculations of the fuel radical cascades that govern low-temperature combustion. This numerical methodology is supported by the relevant fuel ignition delay time (IDT) and research octane number (RON) data experimentally measured by the Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA). Phyiscal fuel property trends are also analyzed by correlating the molecular structure of the fuel to its physical characteristics. Based on their molecular structure, recommendations are made on an a priori method for selecting biofuels that have advantaged properties for the selected fuel application. Lastly, the utility of this investigation is extended beyond the subset of alcohols considered by analyzing the IDT trends of i-Pentanol and n-Hexanol, revealing the fidelity of the novel kinetic modelling approach and the accuracy of the predicted trends in this study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The EBLM project – IX. Five fully convective M-dwarfs, precisely measured with CHEOPS and TESS light curves

ABSTRACT Eclipsing binaries are important benchmark objects to test and calibrate stellar structure and evolution models. This is especially true for binaries with a fully convective M-dwarf component for which direct measurements of these stars’ masses and radii are difficult using other techniques. Within the potential of M-dwarfs to be exoplanet host stars, the accuracy of theoretical predictions of their radius and effective temperature as a function of their mass is an active topic of discussion. Not only the parameters of transiting exoplanets but also the success of future atmospheric characterization relies on accurate theoretical predictions. We present the analysis of five eclipsing binaries with low-mass stellar companions out of a subsample of 23, for which we obtained ultra-high-precision light curves using the CHEOPS satellite. The observation of their primary and secondary eclipses are combined with spectroscopic measurements to precisely model the primary parameters and derive the M-dwarfs mass, radius, surface gravity, and effective temperature estimates using the PYCHEOPS data analysis software. Combining these results to the same set of parameters derived from TESS light curves, we find very good agreement (better than 1 per cent for radius and better than 0.2 per cent for surface gravity). We also analyse the importance of precise orbits from radial velocity measurements and find them to be crucial to derive M-dwarf radii in a regime below 5 per cent accuracy. These results add five valuable data points to the mass–radius diagram of fully convective M-dwarfs.

Sebastian, D. (ORCID:0000000222149258)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale experimental validation of thermochemical water-splitting oxides discovered by defect graph neural networks

Thermochemical water-splitting (TCH) based on 2-step thermal redox cycles in metal oxides is a promising approach to generating H 2 , but state-of-the-art (SOTA) CeO 2 has several practical limitations, which has motivated continued materials discovery efforts in this field. Here, in this study, we improve upon a SOTA defect graph neural network (dGNN) surrogate model's oxygen vacancy predictions and combine them with materials project phase diagrams to down-select and discover structurally diverse, experimentally known metal oxides whose TCH performance was previously unknown. Amongst twelve candidates selected based on our high-throughput screening and down-selection criteria, we achieved ∼80% accuracy in identifying materials with stable redox cycling and hydrogen production in stagnation flow reactor water-splitting experiments. Closer to 100% accuracy can be achieved if higher-accuracy, hybrid DFT-predicted vacancy formation energies were computed and used in lieu of the most uncertain dGNN-based screening predictions, as they correct false positives to true negatives. Notably, two discovered candidates, Sr 3 PrMn 2 O 8 and Ba 2 Fe 2 O 5 , display hydrogen yields greater than CeO 2 under specific redox conditions. In conclusion, these results demonstrate our ability to computationally predict and experimentally validate promising candidate TCH materials that have the potential to compete with CeO 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Study of reference burnup steps optimization in fuel segment data file generation for NEXUS/ANC9 code system

For any two-step core design code system, the cross-section files are the primary factor to determine the accuracy of the system prediction. For a once-through cross-section system to cover all potential applicable conditions, the system may need to perform tens of thousands state points of lattice calculations. These calculations take a significant amount of CPU times and computing power, especially when a fine or ultra-fine energy group library is used. As computer power increases, so does the calculational complexity. Therefore, it is important to make the lattice calculations effective and efficient. Based on the Westinghouse core design code system NEXUS/ANC9, this work focuses on the reference burnup steps used by the lattice code when performing the calculations. Following the fundamental cross-section methodology and analyzing the contribution of each individual terms, this study provides an applicable solution of the optimized reference burnup steps. The test results show that, with the existing cross-section methodology, it is possible to significantly reduce the lattice calculation cases and cross-section file generation time without sacrificing the accuracy of system prediction. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental measurement of the effective contact angle for solvent/packing interactions in a structured packed column for CO 2 capture

The contact angle is a critical factor for determining the effective mass transfer area for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture via the chemical absorption process in a packed column, and thus the overall capture efficiency of the packed column. Many widely used commercial packings involve microscale features (perforation, corrugation, etc.) that may also affect the wetting behavior. This study proposes a systematic method of using a modified Wilhelmy plate to measure the effective contact angle to characterize the solvent and featured packing interaction. In lieu of computational efforts relying on assumptions guided by semi-informed correlation, the proposed method directly measures the effective contact angle as a function of the solvent and packing thermophysical and hydrodynamic properties. The characterization of the effective contact angle is then integrated in the computational fluid dynamics modeling to reduce uncertainty in the prediction of effective mas transfer area. Experiments were conducted for stainless steel coupons using water and aqueous sodium hydroxide (NaOH) solvent for verification of the proposed experimental protocol. The surface tension of the aqueous NaOH solvent was altered using surfactant and antifoam. The effective contact angle increases with the increased value of the surface tension for flat stainless steel sheets. On the other hand, effective contact angles do not vary in Mellapak coupons for aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) and NaOH solvent. In this case, surface textures and sheet design play a dominant role in the surface tension of solvents. Furthermore, CO 2 loading has a significant effect on the contact angle for Mellapak coupons. As expected, the contact angle decreases with the increasing temperature of CO 2 capture solvents (MEA, EEMPA). The effective contact angle measurement using the Wilhelmy plate method can provide more accurate and efficient solvents for characterizing the solvent-packing surface interactions. Subsequently, the present method enhances the accuracy of the prediction of the effective mass transfer area in carbon capture by solvent absorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Protein model accuracy estimation empowered by deep learning and inter-residue distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract The inter-residue contact prediction and deep learning showed the promise to improve the estimation of protein model accuracy (EMA) in the 13th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP13). To further leverage the improved inter-residue distance predictions to enhance EMA, during the 2020 CASP14 experiment, we integrated several new inter-residue distance features with the existing model quality assessment features in several deep learning methods to predict the quality of protein structural models. According to the evaluation of performance in selecting the best model from the models of CASP14 targets, our three multi-model predictors of estimating model accuracy (MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT, MULTICOM-AI, and MULTICOM-CLUSTER) achieve the averaged loss of 0.073, 0.079, and 0.081, respectively, in terms of the global distance test score (GDT-TS). The three methods are ranked first, second, and third out of all 68 CASP14 predictors. MULTICOM-DEEP, the single-model predictor of estimating model accuracy (EMA), is ranked within top 10 among all the single-model EMA methods according to GDT-TS score loss. The results demonstrate that inter-residue distance features are valuable inputs for deep learning to predict the quality of protein structural models. However, larger training datasets and better ways of leveraging inter-residue distance information are needed to fully explore its potentials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis

The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.

biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗
DOE OSTI2023

RNA target highlights in CASP15 : Evaluation of predicted models by structure providers

Abstract The first RNA category of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction competition was only made possible because of the scientists who provided experimental structures to challenge the predictors. In this article, these scientists offer a unique and valuable analysis of both the successes and areas for improvement in the predicted models. All 10 RNA‐only targets yielded predictions topologically similar to experimentally determined structures. For one target, experimentalists were able to phase their x‐ray diffraction data by molecular replacement, showing a potential application of structure predictions for RNA structural biologists. Recommended areas for improvement include: enhancing the accuracy in local interaction predictions and increased consideration of the experimental conditions such as multimerization, structure determination method, and time along folding pathways. The prediction of RNA–protein complexes remains the most significant challenge. Finally, given the intrinsic flexibility of many RNAs, we propose the consideration of ensemble models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refining the GENEVA method for Higgs boson production via gluon fusion

We describe a number of improvements to the Geneva method for matching NNLO calculations to parton shower programs. In particular, we detail changes to the resummed calculation used in the matching procedure, including disentangling the cross section dependence on factorisation and beam scales, and an improved treatment of timelike logarithms. We also discuss modifications in the implementation of the splitting functions which serve to make the resummed calculation differential in the higher multiplicity phase space. These changes improve the stability of the numerical cancellation of the nonsingular term at small values of the resolution parameter. As a case study, we consider the gluon-initiated Higgs boson production process gg → H. We validate the NNLO accuracy of our predictions against independent calculations, and compare our showered and hadronised results with recent data taken at the ATLAS and CMS experiments in the diphoton decay channel, finding good agreement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulation of dhurrin pathway gene expression during Sorghum bicolor development

Plant defence models evaluate the costs and benefits of resource investments at different stages in the life cycle. Poor understanding of the molecular regulation of defence deployment and remobilization hampers accuracy of the predictions. Cyanogenic glucosides, such as dhurrin are phytoanticipins that release hydrogen cyanide upon bio-activation. In this study, RNA-seq was used to investigate the expression of genes involved in the biosynthesis, bio-activation and recycling of dhurrin in Sorghum bicolor . Genes involved in dhurrin biosynthesis were highly expressed in all young developing vegetative tissues (leaves, leaf sheath, roots, stems), tiller buds and imbibing seeds and showed gene specific peaks of expression in leaves during diel cycles. Genes involved in dhurrin bio-activation were expressed early in organ development with organ-specific expression patterns. Genes involved in recycling were expressed at similar levels in the different organ during development, although post-floral initiation when nutrients are remobilized for grain filling, expression of GSTL1 decreased > tenfold in leaves and NITB2 increased > tenfold in stems. Results are consistent with the establishment of a pre-emptive defence in young tissues and regulated recycling related to organ senescence and increased demand for nitrogen during grain filling. This detailed characterization of the transcriptional regulation of dhurrin biosynthesis, bioactivation and remobilization genes during organ and plant development will aid elucidation of gene regulatory networks and signalling pathways that modulate gene expression and dhurrin levels. In-depth knowledge of dhurrin metabolism could improve the yield, nitrogen use efficiency and stress resilience of Sorghum .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

MADE3D: Enabling the next generation of high-torque density wind generators by additive design and 3D printing

Direct-drive wind turbine generators are increasing in popularity, thanks to recent project developments—especially offshore, where reliability and efficiency are major cost drivers. Yet, high capital costs are forcing many original equipment manufacturers to consider lightweight, high-torque density generators for next-generation multi-megawatt turbines that may be difficult to realize by traditional design or manufacturing methods. In this study, we present a new design framework enabled by advanced machine learning and multimaterial additive manufacturing to perform a magnetic topology optimization that maximizes the torque per rotor active mass for a 15-megawatt direct-drive permanent magnet wind generator. A comparison of the proposed approach against conventional topology optimization demonstrated a significant increase in computational efficiency and accuracy in performance predictions. Results using single and multimaterial compositions for rotor core and magnets identify a wider choice of 3D printable designs for a given specification. A hybrid combination of sintered and dysprosium-free polymer-bonded magnets shows good potential for torque performance by saving material costs up to 8.75%. More than 30% improvement in rotor torque densities is identified which can marginally improve the overall generator torque density. With the rapid evolution of multipowder deposition technolgies, this study can greatly inspire a new paradigm for design-driven manufacturing with novel material compositions and lightweight, low-cost, high-strength multimaterial geometries that were previously unexplored for direct-drive generators.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of spatial energy distribution-induced porosity on mechanical properties of laser powder bed fusion 316L stainless steel

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing (AM) offers a variety of advantages over traditional manufacturing, however its usefulness for manufacturing of high-performance components is currently hampered by internal defects (porosity) created during the LPBF process that have an unknown impact on global mechanical performance. By inducing porosity distributions through variations in print energy density and inspecting the resulting tensile samples using computed tomography, nearly 50,000 pores across 75 samples were identified. Porosity characteristics were quantitatively extracted from inspection data and compared with mechanical properties to understand the strength of relationships between porosity and global tensile performance. Useful porosity characteristics were identified for prediction of part performance. Results indicate that ductility and strain at ultimate tensile strength are the global tensile properties most significantly impacted by porosity and can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using simple porosity shape descriptors such as volume, diameter, and surface area. Moreover, it was found that the largest pores influenced behavior most significantly. Specifically, pores in excess of 125 µm in diameter were found to be a sufficient threshold for property estimation. These results establish an initial understanding of the complex defect-performance relationship in AM 316L stainless steel and can be leveraged to develop certification standards and improve confidence in part quality and reliability for the broader set of engineering alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic optimization and economic evaluation of flexible heat integration in a hybrid concentrated solar power plant

Hybridization of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants provides flexibility in operation that can drastically improve the solar-to-electric (STE) efficiency and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) relative to standalone CSP plants. Flexible heat integration (FHI) is a novel concept where the collection and integration of CSP within a power plant is modified relative to the amount of solar energy available. FHI improves the thermal efficiency of a hybrid solar tower steam Rankine cycle power plant but leads to increased pumping needs due to continuously elevated molten salt flow rates through the collection system, which can negatively impact STE efficiency. The present work is carried out to maximize the STE efficiency of a hybrid CSP plant utilizing FHI by employing a dynamic optimization framework where a genetic algorithm optimizes the operation of the plant over a given solar irradiance profile. The study concerns a plant hypothetically located in Salt Lake City, Utah. Here, the optimization results confirm the accuracy of a predictive heuristic where the preferred operation of the plant can be estimated relative to local peaks in the incident power generated by the heliostat collection field. The optimized FHI operation demonstrates a yearly STE efficiency of 13.8%, whereas the equivalent base-level hybrid and solar-only plants exhibit solar efficiencies of 13.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Economic analysis shows that FHI reduces yearly natural gas costs, leading to a $\$0.5$/MWh reduction in LCOE relative to the base-level hybrid configuration. Overall, the results show that hybrid FHI schemes exhibit economic benefits along with observed thermodynamic improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗