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DOE OSTI2020

Spectrum of embrittling potencies and relation to properties of symmetric-tilt grain boundaries

Grain boundaries in metallic materials can exist in a wide range of stable and metastable structures. In addition, the properties of a grain boundary may be altered through solute segregation. In this work, we present a formulation that combines the spectrum of embrittling potencies associated with solute segregation with site-occupancy statistics. As a prototype problem, we illustrate the relation between segregation and embrittlement in the case of S segregation to grain boundaries in Ni. To obtain a population of site segregation energies, we perform molecular statics calculations on 378 different symmetric-tilt grain boundaries and their free surface equivalents, using an embedded-atom method interatomic potential developed specifically for studying embrittlement. Our results show that it is important to consider both the energies associated with embrittlement and the probability of occupancy to describe the general embrittling nature of a grain boundary. When analyzed in isolation, certain grain boundaries show large embrittling potencies; however, that effect is diminished when the probability of S segregation to that grain boundary is considered within a polycrystal. We propose a new quantity, the embrittling estimator, which not only categorizes grain boundaries as embrittling or strengthening, but also considers site occupancy probabilities, so that the embrittlement behavior of grain boundaries within a network of grain boundaries can be compared. Finally, we examine the relationship between embrittlement behavior and innate grain boundary properties, such as the free volume, and find statistical evidence that the complex nature of embrittlement cannot be explained by linear correlations with excess volumes or energies. Ultimately, this combined approach provides a theoretical tool to assist grain boundary engineering of metastable alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dose Coefficient Calculation for Use in Dosimetry Assessment of a Fission-Based Weapon

In the event of a fission-based weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation, dose coefficients can be harnessed to provide dose assessments for defense, emergency preparedness, and consequence management, as well as to prospectively inform the assessment of radiation biomarkers and development of medical prophylaxis countermeasures for defense and homeland security stakeholders and decision-makers. Although dose coefficients have previously been calculated for this group, they would apply specifically to the studied population, the 1945 Japanese cohort, after which their anthropomorphic computational phantoms were modeled. For this reason, applications to other populations may be limited, and instead, an assessment of a more standardized population is desired. We employed a series of computational human phantoms representing international reference individuals: UF/NCI voxel phantom series containing newborn, 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 35-year-old males and females. Irradiation of the phantoms was simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code to determine organ dose coefficients under four idealized irradiation geometries at three distances from the detonation hypocenter at Hiroshima and Nagasaki using DS02 free-in-air prompt neutron and photon fluence spectra. Through these simulations, age-specific dose coefficients were determined for individual organs. Various articulated PIMAL stylized phantoms were simulated as well to estimate the effect of body posture on dose coefficients and determine the effect of posture on dosimetric estimation and reconstruction. Results additionally demonstrate that 137 Cs and the Watt fission spectra are not ideal general surrogate sources for fission weapons, which may be considered for experimental testing of medical countermeasures. Supplementary data provided tabulates the compilation of organ dose-rate coefficients in this study.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Whose Gas is it anyway? Differentiating the Source of a Large Soil Vapor Plume beneath Two Adjacent Waste Sites - 20487

DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company is currently responsible for conducting groundwater contamination monitoring at several RCRA treatment, storage, and disposal units located on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington State. The Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill treatment, storage, and disposal unit presents a distinct groundwater monitoring problem because of a large multi-contaminant soil vapor plume beneath it that is a likely source of low-level volatile organic compound groundwater contamination. Adjacent to Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill is the Solid Waste Landfill. Volatile organic compounds are inventory components of both the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and the Solid Waste Landfill. Therefore, it is possible that both sites could be contributing to the soil vapor plume. For regulatory purposes, it is important to differentiate which site is the primary contributor of volatile organic compounds to the plume. An approach was developed to identify the primary volatile organic compound source of the soil vapor plume beneath Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. The site conceptual model hypothesis of vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to the dissolved phase in groundwater was tested by a simple mathematical model of vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations at the groundwater/air interface. Once it was shown that vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater was a valid conceptual model for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill, spatial and statistical methods were used to determine the primary site contributing to the majority of volatile organic compounds to the soil vapor plume. Average groundwater chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene concentrations from Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring network wells were plotted on maps of the facilities and immediate vicinities and compared to soil vapor sampling probe locations. Principal component analysis and mixing ratios were used to identify source contributions of each treatment, storage, and disposal unit to the plume. Results of the vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations mathematical model showed that transport phenomena outweigh steady-state equilibria. Estimated vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations were considerably lower than soil vapor measurements. The results indicate that dynamic vadose zone and groundwater factors such as decreased vapor concentrations with depth, vapor dilution from dispersion in the vadose zone, and advective and diffusional volatile organic compound dilution in groundwater result in groundwater volatile organic compound concentrations much less than would be measured under steady-state equilibrium conditions. Site source contribution differentiation by principal component analysis and mixing ratios was inconclusive using actual soil gas data because of the similarity in concentration values in both datasets for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. Similar data populations suggest mixing of the vapor contributions from both sites by dispersion through the soil matrix pore spaces. However, when groundwater volatile organic compound data were compared between the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring networks, Solid Waste Landfill mean concentrations were higher, suggesting more vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater at those locations. Simulated volatile organic compound soil vapor and groundwater datasets created to test the methods developed for this study show that the method can be successful in source differentiation when significantly different datasets are compared. This paper will describe a method of testing a conceptual model for vapor-phase contaminant transport to groundwater and for differentiating site sources of contaminants comprising a mixed-constituent soil vapor plume. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

HATS-37Ab and HATS-38b: Two Transiting Hot Neptunes in the Desert

We report the discovery of two transiting Neptunes by the HATSouth survey. The planet HATS-37Ab has a mass of 0.099±0.042 M{sub J} (31.5 ± 13.4 M {sub ⊕}) and a radius of 0.606±0.016 R{sub J}, and is on a P=4.3315 day orbit around a V=12.266±0.030 mag, 0.843{sub −0.012}{sup +0.017} M{sub ⊙} star with a radius of 0.877{sub −0.012}{sup +0.019} R{sub ⊙}. We also present evidence that the star HATS-37A has an unresolved stellar companion HATS-37B, with a photometrically estimated mass of 0.654±0.033 M{sub ⊙}. The planet HATS-38b has a mass of 0.074±0.011 M{sub J} (23.5 ± 3.5 M {sub ⊕}) and a radius of 0.614±0.017 R{sub J}, and is on a P=4.3750 day orbit around a V=12.411±0.030 mag, 0.890{sub −0.012}{sup +0.016} M{sub ⊙} star with a radius of 1.105±0.016 R{sub ⊙}. Both systems appear to be old, with isochrone-based ages of 11.46{sub −1.45}{sup +0.79} Gyr, and 11.89±0.60 Gyr, respectively. Both HATS-37Ab and HATS-38b lie in the Neptune desert and are thus examples of a population with a low occurrence rate. They are also among the lowest-mass planets found from ground-based wide-field surveys to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The structure of the stellar halo of the Andromeda galaxy explored with the NB515 for Subaru/HSC – I. New insights on the stellar halo up to 120 kpc

ABSTRACT We analyse the M31 halo and its substructure within a projected radius of 120 kpc using a combination of Subaru/HSC NB515 and Canada France Hawaii Telescope/MegaCam g and i bands. We succeed in separating M31’s halo stars from foreground contamination with $\sim$90 per cent accuracy by using the surface gravity sensitive NB515 filter. Based on the selected M31 halo stars, we discover three new substructures, which associate with the Giant Southern Stream (GSS) based on their photometric metallicity estimates. We also produce the distance and photometric metallicity estimates for the known substructures. While these quantities for the GSS are reproduced in our study, we find that the north-western stream shows a steeper distance gradient than found in an earlier study, suggesting that it is likely to have formed in an orbit closer to the Milky Way. For two streams in the eastern halo (Stream C and D), we identify distance gradients that had not been resolved. Finally, we investigate the global halo photometric metallicity distribution and surface brightness profile using the NB515-selected halo stars. We find that the surface brightness of the metal-poor and metal-rich halo populations, and the all population can be fitted to a power-law profile with an index of $\alpha =-1.65\pm 0.02$, $-2.82\pm 0.01$, and $-2.44\pm 0.01$, respectively. In contrast to the relative smoothness of the halo profile, its photometric metallicity distribution appears to be spatially non-uniform with non-monotonic trends with radius, suggesting that the halo population had insufficient time to dynamically homogenize the accreted populations.

Ogami, Itsuki (ORCID:0000000182394549)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Spectral Diversity of Quasars in the Sixteenth Data Release from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Abstract We present a new approach to capturing the broad diversity of emission-line and continuum properties in quasar spectra. We identify populations of spectrally similar quasars through pixel-level clustering on 12,968 high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the redshift range of 1.57 < z < 2.4. Our clustering analysis finds 396 quasar spectra that are not assigned to any population, 15 misclassified spectra, and 6 quasars with incorrect redshifts. We compress the quasar populations into a library of 684 high-S/N composite spectra, anchored in redshift space by the Mg ii emission line. Principal component analysis on the library results in an eigenspectrum basis spanning 1067–4007 Å. We model independent samples of SDSS quasar spectra with the eigenbasis, allowing for a free redshift parameter. Our models achieve a median reduced χ 2 on non–broad absorption line quasar spectra that is reduced by 8.5% relative to models using the eigenspectra from the SDSS spectroscopic pipeline. A significant contribution to the relative improvement is from the ability to reconstruct the range of emission-line variation. The redshift estimates from our model are consistent with the Mg ii emission-line redshift with an average offset that displays 51.4% less redshift-dependent variation relative to the SDSS eigenspectra. Our method for developing quasar spectra models can improve automated classification and predict the intrinsic spectrum in regions affected by intervening absorbers such as Ly α , C iv , and Mg ii , thus benefiting studies of large-scale structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Survival and behavior of Mojave desert tortoises head-started with and without outdoor rearing

Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations in some regions have declined by >50% since 2004, prompting the need for more research on ways to recover populations. One possible recovery tool is head-starting (i.e., the act of protecting and raising juvenile tortoises to sizes that increase survival upon release); however, head-starting can have high start-up and maintenance costs that can limit its feasibility. Strategies that reduce cost and rearing duration may foster broader and more effective use. We released and radio-tracked 60 juvenile tortoises in the Mojave National Preserve in California, USA, that had been reared under 2 treatments: those reared 1 year indoors after hatching, then 1 year outdoors (combo) and those reared just 1 year indoors (indoor-only). We tested whether indoor-only rearing alone could be a more efficient means of producing robust head-started tortoises. We examined the behavior, movement, and survival of tortoises after release into the wild from 2020 to 2021 to determine whether these outcomes differed between husbandry treatments. Combo tortoises tended to perform settling behaviors (mean ± 1 SE days to building first burrow = 6.7 ± 0.8, entering dormancy = 23.3 ± 2.1, and emerging from dormancy = 189.6 ± 4.4) earlier than indoor-only tortoises (7.4 ± 0.9, 31.5 ± 2.6, and 193.9 ± 5.9, respectively), but this difference was not significant, suggesting the rearing method did not greatly alter settling behavior. Indoor-only tortoises dispersed at least twice as far from their release site (156.2 ± 26.3 m compared with 77.3 ± 20.6 m for combo tortoises), had larger mean use areas (3.7 ± 0.1 ha compared with 2.8 ± 0.3 ha for combo tortoises for 95% Brownian bridge movement model estimates), and greater variability in their movements than combo tortoises (daily average step length post-emergence: 4.3 ± 0.2 m compared with 2.8 ± 0.1 m for combo tortoises). Despite differences in their movements, indoor-only and combo tortoises had similar survival rates over the study, 51% versus 42%, respectively, during a period of extreme drought in 2021. The similarity in survival between groups gives head-starting practitioners freedom in their rearing methods. The indoor-only group had lower site fidelity, which should be considered when this is an undesirable trait for released tortoises.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improved Spectral Classification of Local K/M Dwarfs in SDSS Surveys. I. Chemodynamic Validation and Metallicity Calibration

An examination of 109,276 spectra of low-mass stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data archive, collected pre-2010, provides a broad collection of K/M (sub)dwarfs tracing the local (d ≲ 250 pc) population of the thin-disk, thick-disk, and halo, based on 3D kinematics. These populations have distinct metallicities and kinematics, which should be reflected in lower-mass members. One complication is measuring metallicities of M dwarfs from low-resolution spectroscopy or photometry alone remains a challenge, even with the availability of Gaia data. To better characterize physical parameters of low-mass stars observed by SDSS, we define a set of 536 improved, empirical K/M dwarf classification templates to more accurately determine spectral subtypes (K5.5–M8.5) and morphology classes (MCs) (0.5–12.5). We select the best-fit template to every archival SDSS spectrum in the range 5000–8000 Å based on minimum χ 2 value. We then use secondary metallicity estimators to calibrate the most likely [Fe/H] values corresponding to the assigned MC. We confirm that the most metal-rich K/M dwarfs have thin-disk kinematics, and we observe the known effect of Galactic radial metallicity migration, which we confirm is strongly imprinted in the chemodynamics of the local disk M dwarfs. Confirmation of these chemodynamic trends validates the precision of our improved templates for estimating [Fe/H] for M (sub)dwarfs, notably at the low-metallicity end (–3 < [Fe/H] < –1). Substructure in the chemodynamics of the most metal-poor K/M subdwarfs begins to distinguish between local Gaia-Enceladus and local in situ halo objects. This methodology opens the door to use the ubiquitous, local K/M (sub)dwarfs to trace local Galactic chemodynamics with the highest possible resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The geometry of signal space: a case study of direct mapping between seismic signals and event distribution

SUMMARY Under favourable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal-space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection and scaling, with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

LL18-Signal Analysis-NDD2Ad (Final Report)

Under favorable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially-distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection, and scaling with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning, and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic, and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely-held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics modeling of molten salt reactor with reduced and expanded representations of delayed neutron precursors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) present unique challenges in dynamic behavior due to the mobility of their fuel. In these reactors, delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) drift with the fuel circulation through the primary loop. As a result, a fraction of DNPs decays outside the core, effectively reducing the available delayed neutron population for reactivity control. Consequently, precise modeling of the distribution and behavior of DNPs is critical for accurate reactor dynamics simulations. In this study, the System Dynamics Analysis Tool (SDAT) was used to simulate a thermal-spectrum MSR under steady-state conditions and following transients. The effects of using reduced and expanded representations of DNPs with fewer or more groups than the conventional 6-group model were investigated. Their impact on the simulated distribution of precursors in the primary loop, reactivity loss value, and reactor response to transients was analyzed. Simulation results showed that reduced models lead to the loss of the actual DNPs distribution data, resulting in less accurate estimates of reactivity loss. Reactor power predictions using these reduced models showed significant deviations compared to those using the conventional 6-group model in transient simulations. Expanded models offered a more accurate representation of the distribution of DNPs and reactivity loss estimates. Reactor power predictions using expanded models showed minimal deviation from the conventional 6-group model during the simulated transients.

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Variation in morpho-physiological and metabolic responses to low nitrogen stress across the sorghum association panel

Abstract Background Access to biologically available nitrogen is a key constraint on plant growth in both natural and agricultural settings. Variation in tolerance to nitrogen deficit stress and productivity in nitrogen limited conditions exists both within and between plant species. However, our understanding of changes in different phenotypes under long term low nitrogen stress and their impact on important agronomic traits, such as yield, is still limited. Results Here we quantified variation in the metabolic, physiological, and morphological responses of a sorghum association panel assembled to represent global genetic diversity to long term, nitrogen deficit stress and the relationship of these responses to grain yield under both conditions. Grain yield exhibits substantial genotype by environment interaction while many other morphological and physiological traits exhibited consistent responses to nitrogen stress across the population. Large scale nontargeted metabolic profiling for a subset of lines in both conditions identified a range of metabolic responses to long term nitrogen deficit stress. Several metabolites were associated with yield under high and low nitrogen conditions. Conclusion Our results highlight that grain yield in sorghum, unlike many morpho-physiological traits, exhibits substantial variability of genotype specific responses to long term low severity nitrogen deficit stress. Metabolic response to long term nitrogen stress shown higher proportion of variability explained by genotype specific responses than did morpho-pysiological traits and several metabolites were correlated with yield. This suggest, that it might be possible to build predictive models using metabolite abundance to estimate which sorghum genotypes will exhibit greater or lesser decreases in yield in response to nitrogen deficit, however further research needs to be done to evaluate such model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Predictions for Large Scale Structure with SHAMNet

In simulation-based models of the galaxy-halo connection, theoretical predictions for galaxy clustering and lensing are typically made based on Monte Carlo realizations of a mock universe. In this paper, we use Subhalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) as a toy model to introduce an alternative to stochastic predictions based on mock population, demonstrating how to make simulation-based predictions for clustering and lensing that are both exact and differentiable with respect to the parameters of the model. Conventional implementations of SHAM are based on iterative algorithms such as Richardson-Lucy deconvolution; here we use the JAX library for automatic differentiation to train SHAMNet, a neural network that accurately approximates the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SMHM) defined by abundance matching. In our approach to making differentiable predictions of large-scale structure, we map parameterized PDFs onto each simulated halo, and calculate gradients of summary statistics of the galaxy distribution by using autodiff to propagate the gradients of the SMHM through the statistical estimators used to measure one- and two-point functions. Our techniques are quite general, and we conclude with an overview of how they can be applied in tandem with more complex, higher-dimensional models, creating the capability to make differentiable predictions for the multi-wavelength universe of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale evaluation of diesel commuter rail fuel use, emissions, and eco-driving

Diesel commuter rail emissions affect populations near rail corridors. An approach is demonstrated to quantify mesoscale and microscale diesel commuter rail fuel use and emission rates (FUERs) of CO 2 , CO, NO x , particulate matter, and total hydrocarbons based on two U.S. systems. A speed trajectory simulator, an energy model, and an emissions model were calibrated, evaluated, and applied. FUERs and potential reductions from eco-driving were quantified based on simulated trajectories. Hotspots were defined as sections with ≥ 90 th percentile of section-average FUERs by species. A few key variables explain 74–80% of variability in mesoscopic and microscopic FUERs. On average, FUERs are 7–8 times greater for hotspots than non-hotspots. Eco-driving was estimated to reduce segment-average FUERs by 3–33% and eliminate 2–11% hotspots. However, mesoscale oriented eco-driving can, at some locations, increase microscopic FUERs. The approach is adaptable to other diesel commuter rail systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗