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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Water-Saving Agriculture Can Deliver Deep Water Cuts for China

China is working hard to reconcile growing demands for freshwater with already oversubscribed renewable water resources. However, the knowledge essential for setting and achieving the intended water consumption cuts remains limited. Here we show that on-farm water management interventions such as improved irrigation and soil management practices for maize cultivation can lead to substantial water consumption reductions, by a simulated total of 28-46% (7-14 billion m3/year) nationally, with or without the impacts of climate change. The water consumption cut is equivalent to 16-31% of the ultimate capacity of the South-North Water Transfer Project. Much of the reduction is achievable at the populous and water-stressed North China Plain and Northeast China. Meanwhile, the interventions can increase maize production by an estimated 7-15%, meeting 22-28% of demand increase projected for 2050. The water management and food production improvements obtained are crucial for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water, land, and food in China and far beyond.

Guorui Huang↗
NASA NTRS2021

Landslide Hazard and Exposure Modelling in Data‐Poor Regions: The Example of the Rohingya Refugee Camps in Bangladesh

Landslide hazards significantly affect economies and populations around the world, but locations where the greatest proportional losses occur are in data‐poor regions where capacity to estimate and prepare for these hazards is most limited. Earth observation (EO) data can fill key knowledge gaps, and can be rapidly used in settings with lower analytical capacity. In this study, we describe a novel series of methods designed to analyze landslide susceptibility, hazard and exposure in the region in and around the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, where limited data is juxtaposed with a major humanitarian crisis. We demonstrate that a high degree of accuracy is possible even when estimating susceptibility of relatively small landslides. In the context of this example, we also explore how estimates of landslide hazard and exposure are most beneficial to decisions made by humanitarian stakeholders relevant to natural hazards and risk. The unique opportunity to work alongside humanitarian end‐users has allowed us to produce focused products that can be tested while in development. In particular, we stress the importance of communicating the difference between a landslide “early warning system”—for which satellite data may be unsuitable at local scales—and a model that provides relative hazard estimates, where EO may be valuable. The toolbox of methods presented here could be used to generate landslide hazard and exposure maps in other data‐poor regions around the globe.

R A Emberson↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.

global fire atlas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXXIII. Swift-BAT Blazars and Their Jets through Cosmic Time

We derive the most up-to-date Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) blazar luminosity function in the 14–195 keV range, making use of a clean sample of 118 blazars detected in the BAT 105 month survey catalog, with newly obtained redshifts from the BAT Active Galatic Nucleus Spectroscopic Survey. We determine the best-fit X-ray luminosity function for the whole blazar population, as well as for flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) alone. The main results are: (1) at any redshift, BAT detects the most luminous blazars, above any possible break in their luminosity distribution, which means we cannot differentiate between density and luminosity evolution; (2) the whole blazar population, dominated by FSRQs, evolves positively up to redshift z ~ 4.3, confirming earlier results and implying lower number densities of blazars at higher redshifts than previously estimated. The contribution of this source class to the cosmic X-ray background at 14–195 keV can range from 5%–18%, while possibly accounting for 100% of the MeV background. We also derived the average 14 keV–10 GeV spectral energy distribution for BAT blazars, which allows us to predict the number counts of sources in the MeV range, as well as the expected number of high-energy (>100 TeV) neutrinos. A mission like COSI will detect 40 MeV blazars, of which two may have coincident neutrino detections. Finally, taking into account beaming selection effects, the distribution and properties of the parent population of these extragalactic jets are derived. We find that the distribution of viewing angles is quite narrow, with most sources aligned within <5° of the line of sight. Moreover, the average Lorentz factor, $\langle$Γ$\rangle$ = 8–12, is lower than previously suggested for these powerful sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of 𝑑 2⁢ 𝜎/𝑑⁢|$\vec{q}$|⁢𝑑⁢𝐸 avail in charged current 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus interactions at ⟨𝐸 𝜈 ⟩=1.86 GeV using the NOvA Near Detector

Double- and single-differential cross sections for inclusive charged-current 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus scattering are reported for the kinematic domain 0 to 2 GeV/𝑐 in three-momentum transfer and 0 to 2 GeV in available energy, at a mean 𝜈 𝜇 energy of 1.86 GeV. The measurements are based on an estimated 995,760 𝜈 𝜇 charged-current (CC) interactions in the scintillator medium of the NOvA Near Detector. The subdomain populated by 2-particle-2-hole (2p2h) reactions is identified by the cross section excess relative to predictions for 𝜈 𝜇 -nucleus scattering that are constrained by a data control sample. Models for 2-particle-2-hole processes are rated by 𝜒 2 comparisons of the predicted-versus-measured 𝜈 𝜇 CC inclusive cross section over the full phase space and in the restricted subdomain. Shortfalls are observed in neutrino generator predictions obtained using the theory-based València and SuSAv2 2p2h models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Fresh Water Needs to Meet Future Thermoelectric Generation Requirements and Program Water Saving Benefits (2022 Update)

Freshwater availability is operationally critical for thermoelectric power plants. Trends indicating a growing population, along with increasing threats stemming from the changing climate could possibly set off water scarcity issues for U.S. thermoelectric generation in scarcity-prone regions in the country. This report is an update to a previous water needs analysis which was conducted in 2020 by the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

UrbanPop 2019 Baseline Population

A synthetic residential baseline population for the United States at the census block group level based on the American Community Survey 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates and described by residential, demographic, social, economic, student, mobility, and housing characteristics.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗
NASA NTRS1972

Remarks on the heating of solar-wind protons.

The heating of solar-wind protons cannot be explained by the thermalization of those protons arising from the ionization of neutral hydrogen atoms traveling in the general direction of the sun. By requiring the heating to satisfy the experimental results of the T sub p versus V sub sw correlation, an efficiency function of thermalization of these incoming protons is obtained, and a value of the 'hot component' of the hydrogen population is about 0.05 per cu cm near 1 AU. This hot component hydrogen density is too high compared to recent estimates by satellite experiments of Lyman alpha radiation and other experiments, and therefore the suggested solar-wind heating mechanism is unimportant in explaining the T sub p versus V sub sw correlation.

Chao, J.-K.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Reflectance of vegetation, soil, and water

The author has identified the following significant results. Iron deficient and normal grain sorghum plants were sufficiently different spectrally in ERTS-1 band 5 CCT data to detect chlorotic sorghum areas 2.8 acres (1.1 hectares) or larger in size in computer printouts of the MSS data. The ratio of band 5 to band 7 or band 7 minus band 5 relates to vegetation ground cover conditions and helps to select training samples representative of differing vegetation maturity or vigor classes and to estimate ground cover or green vegetation density in the absence of ground information. The four plant parameters; leaf area index, plant population, plant cover, and plant height explained 87 to 93% of the variability in band 6 digital counts and from 59 to 90% of the variation in bands 4 and 5. A ground area 2244 acres in size was classified on a pixel by pixel basis using simultaneously acquired aircraft support and ERTS-1 data. Overall recognition for vegetables, immature crops and mixed shrubs, and bare soil categories was 64.5% for aircraft and 59.6% for spacecraft data, respectively. Overall recognition results on a per field basis were 61.8% for aircraft and 62.8% for ERTS-1 data.

Wiegand, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Models for estimating runway landing capacity with Microwave Landing System (MLS)

A model is developed which is capable of computing the ultimate landing runway capacity, under ILS and MLS conditions, when aircraft population characteristics and air traffic control separation rules are given. This model can be applied in situations when only a horizontal separation between aircraft approaching a runway is allowed, as well as when both vertical and horizontal separations are possible. It is assumed that the system is free of errors, that is that aircraft arrive at specified points along the prescribed flight path precisely when the controllers intend for them to arrive at these points. Although in the real world there is no such thing as an error-free system, the assumption is adequate for a qualitative comparison of MLS with ILS. Results suggest that an increase in runway landing capacity, caused by introducing the MLS multiple approach paths, is to be expected only when an aircraft population consists of aircraft with significantly differing approach speeds and particularly in situations when vertical separation can be applied. Vertical separation can only be applied if one of the types of aircraft in the mix has a very steep descent angle.

Tosic, V.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The statistical equilibrium of hydrogen and helium in a radiation field, with an application to interpreting Wolf-Rayet spectra

The interpretation of the intensities of the hydrogen and helium emission lines in O and Wolf-Rayet spectra in terms of the abundance of hydrogen relative to helium requires information regarding the distribution of hydrogen and helium atoms and ions over their several energy states. In addition, some estimate is needed regarding the transmission of the radiation through the stellar mantle. The present paper provides new information concerning the population of the energy levels of hydrogen and helium when statistical equilibrium occurs in the presence of a radiation field. The results are applied to an interpretation of the spectra of four Wolf-Rayet stars, taking into account the implications for interpreting the spectra of O stars, OB supergiants, and Be stars.

Bhatia, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The Galactic distribution of free electrons

Various radioastronomical measurements are synthesized here to derive a large-scale Galactic model for the distribution of free electrons and for microstructure in the distribution that seems to be caused by turbulence in the ISM. A two-component axisymmetric model fitted on all scales from 100 km to a few pc, accounts for most of the data. A population of dense, discrete clouds is also needed, and there is some evidence for spiral structure. The model allows better distance estimates for pulsars to be made. The implications of the model for the structure and ionization of the ISM and for the distribution of interstellar turbulence and the diffusion of cosmic rays are discussed.

Cordes, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Far-ultraviolet photometry of the globular cluster omega Cen

We present far-ultraviolet images of the globular cluster omega Centauri obtained with the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) during the 1990 December Astro-1 mission. A total of 1957 sources are detected at 1620 A to a limiting ultraviolet (UV) magnitude of 16.4 in the central 24 min diameter region of the field and a limit of 15.6 over the remainder of the 40 min diameter field. Over 1400 of these sources are matched with stars on a Stroemgren u band charge coupled devices (CCD) frame obtained with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) 0.9 m telescope to produce a (far-UV, u) color-magnitude diagram (CMD). Completeness of the sample and error estimates are determined by photometry of artificial stars added to the images. The horizontal branch (HB) of the CMD is heavily populated hotter than 9000 K. A large number of 'extreme HB' stars are found hotter than a conspicuous break in the HB at T(sub e) approximately 16000 K. There is also a significant population of stars above the HB, the brightest of which is 4 mag brighter than the HB. Most of the hotter of these appear to be 'AGB-manque' or 'Post-Early Asymptotic Giant Branch' stars. We compare the observations to recent theoretical evolutionary tracks for the zero-age HB and subsequent phases. The tracks match the data well, with the exception of the hotter HB stars, many of which fall below the zero-age horizontal branch. It is unclear as yet whether these are a special population or an artifact of errors in the models or photometry. We identify 33 stars with T(sub e) greater than or approximately = 50000 K, which are hotter than zero-age HB stars with envelope masses of 0.003 solar mass.

Whitney, Jonathan H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Spectral Energy Distribution of Star-Forming Galaxies

Our analysis allowed us to address the following points: 1) the nature of the featureless ultraviolet continuum in Seyfert 2's, in particular the amount of stellar population that contributes to this waveband; 2) the difference between Seyfert l's and Seyfert 2's in the ratio of ultraviolet (lambda)1400A to soft X-rays continuum, which is larger in Seyfert 2's and apparently contradicts the Unified Model, but may be resolved if we consider the stellar population; 3) search for anisotropic radiation escaping from the nucleus of Seyfert 2's, by comparing the number of ionizing photons, estimated from the ultraviolet continuum photons, to the number of recombination photons, calculated using the H(beta) line flux. In addition, the research from this grant produced template spectra that have been used in a wide variety of applications, including the identification of high redshift galaxies in the Slone survey.

Kinney, A. L.↗