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At least 739 records · Page 41

The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationship between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we find that firms charged higher prices in more competitive markets in our sample. The finding is robust across multiple definitions of firm concentration. There are at least two potential explanations for our findings. First, firms could be conducting entry deterrence strategies. It is possible that firms are acting in a non-competitive way and setting prices lower than they would be otherwise. Setting low prices that are below potential competitors' marginal costs could deter entrants and ensure a larger market share. Second, there could be a group of dominant firms (with a competitive fringe), and the dominant firms may occasionally engage in price wars. If this is true, prices should be lower in more concentrated markets during the price wars (Salinger, 1990). As the rooftop PV market continues to grow, market structure will remain a relevant policy issue in consideration of the potential for rooftop solar to contribute to de-carbonization efforts or other policy objectives. This paper adds to a growing emphasis on understanding supply-side factors in scaling up solar markets in the residential sector. Generally, solar markets have become more competitive over the same time period that solar technology costs decreased. While solar system hard costs have come down, our research suggests that total costs are more nuanced in early solar system TPO markets. Policymakers should consider these findings when designing markets, and have the data needed to make informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Hybrid Reinforcement Learning-MPC Approach for Distribution System Critical Load Restoration

This paper proposes a hybrid control approach for distribution system critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while MPC models grid operations incorporating RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. We formulate the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The RL algorithm is trained offline using a historical forecast of renewable generation and load demand. The method is tested using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery. Case studies demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other policies with static operating reserves.

distribution system↗

The Climate is A-Changin': Teaching Civic Competence for a Sustainable Climate

A central aim of social studies curriculum is to prepare young people for making "informed and reasoned decisions for the public good" concerning consequential problems like global climate change. By developing students' "vision of a good society" and exploring what actions and policies move our society in this direction, social studies teachers have an important role in preparing students for a world undergoing enormous environmental change. This article discusses elementary curriculum connections between building students' knowledge and understanding about "their community, nation and world" and global climate change. It also suggests ideas for building civic competency and climate literacy while creating opportunities for students to practice high-value skills like "data collection and analysis, collaboration, decision-making and problem-solving."

climate change↗

The Multi-TW Scale Future for Photovoltaics

This chapter is focused on photovoltaics (PV) and argues that this rapidly developing technology is emerging as one of the most important tools policy makers have for meeting COP21 carbon emissions reduction targets. Focusing on the contributions and advancements that PV is likely to make to the global energy system over the next 10-15 years, it gives a basic overview of mainstream PV conversion technologies, summarizes roughly 40 years of research and industrial history then closes with a brief discussion of how PV and energy storage are likely to impact the world's energy landscape going forward. The chapter closely couples an increasingly urgent carbon emissions and climate change problem with dramatic PV advancements over the last 10 years in terms of both performance and cost. Ultimately PV is presented as an extremely useful tool for helping to reduce global carbon emissions with little to no increase in electricity costs, in a timeframe that is meaningful to the global carbon emissions problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Battery-powered bargains? Assessing electric vehicle resale value in the United States

Abstract The resale market will play a critical role in expanding plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption to middle- and lower-income households. Understanding PEV depreciation trends in comparison to those of conventional gasoline vehicles (CVs) is critical for assessing PEV affordability and informing relevant policy, such as subsidies for used PEVs. We deliver comprehensive, high-resolution estimates of value retention rates at the make-model level in the United States for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and CVs using a database of 9 million used cars listed online between 2016 and 2022. While BEVs and PHEVs have depreciated at faster rates than CVs, this trend is changing, with newer model year BEVs and those with larger ranges have significantly higher retention rates than older model years with smaller ranges. Tesla BEVs are a notable exception following the opposite trend, with earlier model years holding their value better than newer model years. Subsidized BEVs in the new market are associated with lower prices for the same model in the resale market, with the $7500 federal subsidy translating to a 3% lower resale price on average. Finally, disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have affected affordability across all vehicles, with mean listing prices rising 37% and 39% for CVs and BEVs, respectively, from January 2020 to March 2022 in inflation-adjusted 2019 dollars.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Improving Access to Foundational Energy Performance Data

Access to foundational energy performance data is key to improving the efficiency of the built environment. However, stakeholders often lack access to what they perceive as credible energy performance data. Therefore, even if a stakeholder determines that a product would increase efficiency, they often have difficulty convincing their management to move forward. Even when credible data do exist, such data are not always sufficient to support detailed energy performance analyses, or the development of robust business cases. One reason for this is that the data parameters that are provided are generally based on the respective industry norms. Thus, for mature industries with extensive testing standards, the data made available are often quite detailed. But for emerging technologies, or for industries with less well-developed testing standards, available data are generally insufficient to support robust analysis. However, even for mature technologies, there is no guarantee that the data being supplied are the same data needed to accurately evaluate a product?s energy performance. To address these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy funded development of a free, publically accessible Web-based portal, the Technology Performance Exchange(TM), to facilitate the transparent identification, storage, and sharing of foundational energy performance data. The Technology Performance Exchange identifies the intrinsic, technology-specific parameters necessary for a user to perform a credible energy analysis and includes a robust database to store these data. End users can leverage stored data to evaluate the site-specific performance of various technologies, support financial analyses with greater confidence, and make better informed procurement decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Historical Comparison of Capacity Build Decisions from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model

The Regional Energy Deploy System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model is frequently used to project the evolution of the U.S. power sector under a wide range of conditions. However, the model's capacity expansion decisions have never been evaluated against historical capacity expansion decisions. In this work, we perform a model validation exercise, comparing capacity expansion decision from ReEDS for 2010-2016 against the actual buildout of the electricity sector. We find that with three key adjustments ReEDS is able to reproduce national level results with reasonably high accuracy. Those three adjustments are to use historical average planning reserve margins instead of the NERC-recommended reserve margin levels, using actual financing costs rather than long-term average financing costs, and disallowing the lowest-cost hydropower upgrades, geothermal sites, and compress-air energy storage sites. We also compare the ReEDS results at a state-level and find that state-level results can be better represented by including a penalty for transferring power between regions. The improved results with that penalty indicate that the ReEDS transmission representation is likely not sufficiently stringent, and should be improved. Overall these results show that with the improvements described above, ReEDS can effectively reproduce historical capacity additions, which increases our confidence in using the model in making forward-looking projections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

National Community Solar Partnership Technical Assistance: Together New Orleans [Slides]

This product is the outcome of a National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP) Technical Assistance (TA) request. TA is provided to NCSP members at no cost and upon request. Some TA, this project included, is later generalized and published to help educate the broader community, share findings, and provide best practices. Together New Orleans submitted a TA request to the NCSP aiming to obtain a third-party analysis on several rate compensation structures that could make project development more financially advantageous.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermal Characteristics of Urban Landscapes

Although satellite data are very useful for analysis of the urban heat island effect at a coarse scale, they do not lend themselves to developing a better understanding of which surfaces across the city contribute or drive the development of the urban heat island effect. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., less than 15 m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace the benefits of the urban forest. These benefits include mitigating the urban heat island effect, making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and aid in overall cooling of the community. High spatial resolution thermal data are required to quantify how artificial surfaces within the city contribute to an increase in urban heating and the benefit of cool surfaces (e.g., surface coatings that reflect much of the incoming solar radiation as opposed to absorbing it thereby lowering urban temperatures). The TRN (thermal response number) is a technique using aircraft remotely sensed surface temperatures to quantify the thermal response of urban surfaces. The TRN was used to quantify the thermal response of various urban surface types ranging from completely vegetated surfaces to asphalt and concrete parking lots for Huntsville, AL.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

The Use of the Airborne Thermal/Visible Land Application Sensor (ATLAS) to Determine the Thermal Response Numbers for Urban Areas

Although satellite data are very useful for analysis of the urban heat island effect at a coarse scale, they do not lend themselves to developing a better understanding of which surfaces across the city contribute or drive the development of the urban heat island effect. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., < 15m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace the benefits of the urban forest. These benefits include mitigating the urban heat island effect, making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and aid in overall cooling of the community. High spatial resolution thermal data are required to quantify how artificial surfaces within the city contribute to an increase in urban heating and the benefit of cool surfaces (e.g., surface coatings that reflect much of the incoming solar radiation as opposed to absorbing it thereby lowering urban temperatures). The TRN (thermal response number)(Luvall and Holbo 1989) is a technique using aircraft remotely sensed surface temperatures to quantify the thermal response of urban surfaces. The TRN was used to quantify the thermal response of various urban surface types ranging from completely vegetated surfaces to asphalt and concrete parking lots for several cities in the United States.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

How to Address a Global Problem with Earth Observations? Developing Best Practices to Monitor Forests Around the World

Forests represent a key natural resource, for which degradation or disturbance is directly associated to economic implications, particularly in the context of the United Nations program REDD+ in supporting national policies to fight illegal deforestation. SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations (EO) for improved environmental decision making in developing countries, works with established institutions, called SERVIR hubs, in four regions around the world. SERVIR is partnering with global programs with great experience in providing best practices in forest monitoring systems, such as SilvaCarbon and the Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI), to develop a capacity building plan that prioritizes user needs. Representatives from the SERVIR global network met in February 2017 with experts in the field of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for forest applications to envisage this capacity building plan that aims to leverage the state-of-the-art knowledge on remote sensing to enhance forest monitoring for user agencies in SERVIR regions.

remote sensing↗

Identifying Climate-Smart Agriculture Research Needs

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to help agricultural systems worldwide, concurrently addressing three challenge areas: increased adaptation to climate change, mitigation of climate change, and ensuring global food security - through innovative policies, practices, and financing. It involves a set of objectives and multiple transformative transitions for which there are newly identified knowledge gaps. We address these questions raised by CSA within three areas: conceptualization, implementation, and implications for policy and decision-makers. We also draw up scenarios on the future of the CSA concept in relation to the 4 per 1000 Initiative (Soils for Food Security and Climate) launched at UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21). Our analysis shows that there is still a need for further interdisciplinary research on the theoretical foundation of the CSA concept and on the necessary transformations of agriculture and land use systems. Contrasting views about implementation indicate that CSA focus on the ''triple win'' (adaptation, mitigation, food security) needs to be assessed in terms of science-based practices. CSA policy tools need to incorporate an integrated set of measures supported by reliable metrics. Environmental and social safeguards are necessary to make sure that CSA initiatives conform to the principles of sustainability, both at the agriculture and food system levels.

mitigation↗

Smart Cities: Leah Guzowski

Energy policy scientist Leah Guzowski discusses how Argonne is working with the City of Chicago to develop and demonstrate technologies aimed at making cities smarter and more energy efficient.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Time Needed to Implement the Blue Ribbon Commission Recommendation on Interim Storage - 13124

The report of the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future [1] makes a number of important recommendations to be considered if Congress elects to redirect U.S. high-level radioactive waste disposal policy. Setting aside for the purposes of this discussion any issues related to political forces leading to stopping progress on the Yucca Mountain project and driving the creation of the Commission, an important recommendation of the Commission was to institute prompt efforts to develop one or more consolidated storage facilities. The Blue Ribbon Commission noted that this recommended strategy for future storage and disposal facilities and operations should be implemented regardless of what happens with Yucca Mountain. It is too easy, however, to focus on interim storage as an alternative to geologic disposal. The Blue Ribbon Commission report does not go far enough in addressing the magnitude of the contentious problems associated with reopening the issues of relative authorities of the states and federal government with which Congress wrestled in crafting the Nuclear Waste Policy Act [2]. The Blue Ribbon Commission recommendation for prompt adoption of an interim storage program does not appear to be fully informed about the actions that must be taken, the relative cost of the effort, or the realistic time line that would be involved. In essence, the recommendation leaves to others the details of the systems engineering analyses needed to understand the nature and details of all the operations required to reach an operational interim storage facility without derailing forever the true end goal of geologic disposal. The material presented identifies a number of impediments that must be overcome before the country could develop a centralized federal interim storage facility. In summary, and in the order presented, they are: 1. Change the law, HJR 87, PL 107-200, designating Yucca Mountain for the development of a repository. 2. Bring new nuclear waste legislation to the floor of the Senate, overcoming existing House support for Yucca Mountain; 3. Change the longstanding focus of Congress from disposal to storage; 4. Change the funding concepts embodied in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to allow the Nuclear Waste fund to be used to pay for interim storage; 5. Reverse the Congressional policy not to give states or tribes veto or consent authority, and to reserve to Congress the authority to override a state or tribal disapproval; 6. Promulgate interim storage facility siting regulations to reflect the new policies after such changes to policy and law; 7. Complete already underway changes to storage and transportation regulations, possibly incorporating changes to reflect changes to waste disposal law; 8. Promulgate new repository siting regulations if the interim storage facility is to support repository development; 9. Identify volunteer sites, negotiate agreements, and get Congressional approval for negotiated benefits packages; 10. Design, License and develop the interim storage facility. The time required to accomplish these ten items depends on many factors. The estimate developed assumes that certain of the items must be completed before other items are started; given past criticisms of the current program, such an assumption appears appropriate. Estimated times for completion of individual items are based on historical precedent. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Shared Knowledge for Decision-making on Environment and Health Issues in the Arctic

This paper will describe a remote sensing and GIs-based system to bring indigenous traditional knowledge together with contemporary scientific knowledge to address impacts resulting from changes in climate, environment, weather and pollution in the Arctic. As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities continue to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This system is being designed to bring together remotely sensed, indigenous and other data and observations for analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest (e.g., snow cover, rainfall, temperature, ice conditions, vegetation, infrastructure, fires). A description of the system and its components as well as a preliminary application of the system in the Arctic will be presented.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

The Manufacture of Advanced Key Energy Infrastructure Technologies (MAKE IT) Prize (Final Technical Report)

This is a final technical report for the American-Made Manufacture of Advanced Key Energy Infrastructure Technologies (MAKE IT) Prize, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Commercialization (OTC) in collaboration with the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) with support from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). The MAKE IT Prize aims to catalyze domestic manufacturing of critical energy technology components, moving manufacturing facilities from planning to shovel-ready and enabling strategies for vibrant manufacturing activities in communities. This prize was launched with a prize pool of approximately $30 million spread across two tracks: Facilities and Strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An Evidence-Based Critique of U.S. Nuclear Waste Policy Using Data from Reactor and Cyclotron Sites - 18568

Concrete at nuclear facilities becomes radioactive when it is exposed to a neutron flux, and when such facilities are vacated, decommissioning activities are enacted to make the site safe for reuse. These activities generate wastes that the public expects to be managed in their best interest. This paper provides side-by-side comparisons of concrete bio-shielding encountered at typical reactor and cyclotron decommissioning projects. Three sites are considered, and results from characterization samples are used to demonstrate that the wastes generated by such sites are similar in terms of content and risk. First, the dose potential represented by each waste is determined from mass-based radioactivity concentration with the RESRAD-BUILD computer code. The resulting doses are translated into population-risk estimates by applying dose-response predictions from the National Academy of Sciences' 2006 BEIR VII report. In terms of possible adverse health outcomes, the risk of solid cancer or leukemia associated with the wastes this paper examines is 8 to 50 extra cases per 100,000 persons. The regulatory framework applicable to each site is also reviewed, and the waste management strategies used at each site are contrasted. This paper demonstrates that the wastes it examines are virtually indistinguishable. Contrary to this finding, the wastes are regulated, managed, and disposed in very different manners according to current U.S. nuclear waste policy. The value of this paper is that the side-by-side comparisons it presents provides an opportunity to examine the risk-benefit of existing policies in terms of the benefits or disparities they represent. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗